Too Late To Start Thinking About 2018?
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- YellowKing
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
I'm really hoping that the polls are not capturing a contingent of "unknowns" that are going to swing hard left in the same way that unknowns handed Trump the presidency.
In other words, is it possible the polls (which are already very favorable to Democrats) are under-representing the wave?
Just anecdotally I know a lot of Trump voters or those who did not vote at all who are very much regretting their decision. They're likely to turn out for the opportunity to correct their mistake.
In other words, is it possible the polls (which are already very favorable to Democrats) are under-representing the wave?
Just anecdotally I know a lot of Trump voters or those who did not vote at all who are very much regretting their decision. They're likely to turn out for the opportunity to correct their mistake.
- stessier
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
I know I live in a red state, but I've seen no evidence at all of flagging support for Trump. If the election were held today in SC, I'd be shocked if he didn't do better than he did in 2016.
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- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Yeah, but to be fair, South Carolina has a long history of political insanity. It's kind of its thing. It was for secession decades before it was cool, for example.
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- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
In terms of the governor races, I haven't looked at it in a long while (in part because there's nothing like 538's congressional models for the governor's races yet, and other than maybe 2 or 3 races, they really haven't been hitting the news media much), but from what I remember a couple of months ago, there were maybe around 10 competitive races, almost all of them currently held by Republicans.
- stessier
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Ah...I guess I'm surrounded by trendsetters then. Yay?
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- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Democrats are likely to gain a material number of governorships. In large part that's a factor of it being kind of like a reverse Senate map - they're overwhelming states with current Republican governors, which by definition means there are very limited pickup opportunities for Republicans.Defiant wrote: ↑Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:53 am In terms of the governor races, I haven't looked at it in a long while (in part because there's nothing like 538's congressional models for the governor's races yet, and other than maybe 2 or 3 races, they really haven't been hitting the news media much), but from what I remember a couple of months ago, there were maybe around 10 competitive races, almost all of them currently held by Republicans.
Here are the current RCP views.
2 "likely dem" (1R incumbent, 1D)
7 "leans dem" (4D, 3R)
8 "tossups" (7R, 1D)
1 "leans Rep" (1R incumbent)
6 "likely Rep" (5 R, 1 independent (AK)).
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- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
So if you give the "leans/likely" to the side that's leading, and divide the tossups 50/50, Democrats would gain 7 governorships. Though given the current political environment, I think it's more likely that Democrats would do at least one or two pickups better than that.
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- Archinerd
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Try telling your neighbors that all the hurricanes you've been getting are God's Wrath for continuing to support the Anti-Christ. In a way, it's kind of true considering his position on climate change.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
You're just lucky Lincoln didn't hold a grudge. He should have demoted SC to the status of US Territory...had he done so, you'd be experiencing all the same clout enjoyed by Guam.stessier wrote: ↑Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:59 amAh...I guess I'm surrounded by trendsetters then. Yay?
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- Isgrimnur
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Nah, we just would have a Super Carolina.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Just as long as it's irrelevant, I'm ok with that.
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- YellowKing
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
No offense to South Carolina, but I don't want none of that.Isgrimnur wrote:Nah, we just would have a Super Carolina.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Congratulations on being the sane Carolina.YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:35 pmNo offense to South Carolina, but I don't want none of that.Isgrimnur wrote:Nah, we just would have a Super Carolina.
Though you're going to need to oust your state GOP leaders if you want to retain that title.
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- Ralph-Wiggum
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
+1, except for the "no offense" part.YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:35 pmNo offense to South Carolina, but I don't want none of that.Isgrimnur wrote:Nah, we just would have a Super Carolina.
When the politics in North Carolina are considered the sane ones, you're in bad shape.
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- YellowKing
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
I got my voter info pamphlet today and the legislature is already trying to sneak in a voter ID amendment on the ballot. The crazy thing is not only does the amendment NOT specify what forms of ID will be acceptable, but they also provided no cost estimates to taxpayers. It's literally just an open ended blank check for them to pass whatever form of voter suppression they want.
They're also trying to sneak in some bullshit thing to limit the governor's power to appoint judges, where the legislature would come up with two nominees that he could pick from. Clearly designed to prevent Cooper from placing any Democratic judges on the bench.
The final bit of chicanery is something to curtail some current bipartisan panel from 9 members to 8, and remove all non-affiliated (independents) from the panel. Again, clearly designed to give the current majority the upper hand.
Of course, all these are hidden among other amendments that ordinary NCers will totally get behind - more rights for victims of violent crime and an amendment to protect hunting and fishing. I'm sure the goal is to get voters to blindly just mark check check check all the way down the list.
Again folks, THIS set of fools is what drove me from the Republican party. PRE-Trump. If MSD wants to know why I went "to the dark side," then go read up on all the shady shit they've been doing to the people of North Carolina. And I say shady as if they're actually trying to hide it. They're not.
They're also trying to sneak in some bullshit thing to limit the governor's power to appoint judges, where the legislature would come up with two nominees that he could pick from. Clearly designed to prevent Cooper from placing any Democratic judges on the bench.
The final bit of chicanery is something to curtail some current bipartisan panel from 9 members to 8, and remove all non-affiliated (independents) from the panel. Again, clearly designed to give the current majority the upper hand.
Of course, all these are hidden among other amendments that ordinary NCers will totally get behind - more rights for victims of violent crime and an amendment to protect hunting and fishing. I'm sure the goal is to get voters to blindly just mark check check check all the way down the list.
Again folks, THIS set of fools is what drove me from the Republican party. PRE-Trump. If MSD wants to know why I went "to the dark side," then go read up on all the shady shit they've been doing to the people of North Carolina. And I say shady as if they're actually trying to hide it. They're not.
- Apollo
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- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Trump's net approval rating has dropped in every state. His approval has dropped in every state with the exception of Alabama and West Virginia (where it's the same number), but more of the change, I think, has to do with people who were undecided before but now disapprove of Trump.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
As the tweet says, who knows about the impact of this sort of thing these days. Though with (from what I've seen) Nelson with a growing lead of late, even a small hit from this would be problematic for Scott.
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- Defiant
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- YellowKing
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
In more NC news, remember those six amendments on the ballot this year, most of which are shady?
3 of the 6 had to be reworded due to their language being unconstitutional. Yeah, that's right - half of the amendments on the ballot are "do-overs" after getting their wrists slapped the first time.
3 of the 6 had to be reworded due to their language being unconstitutional. Yeah, that's right - half of the amendments on the ballot are "do-overs" after getting their wrists slapped the first time.
- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
(No, I have not turned into a spam bot)
Spoiler:
- Holman
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
I've seen the same thing with "Kim has finally decided to divorce Kanye!!"
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
- Daehawk
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Im starting to worry about midterms as people are seemingly starting to forget all trump and the GOP's stupidity. Ive seen signs that thing may not be a wave after all. Even Cruz might win. Scary.
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- Holman
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Stay focused. You're talking about Texas.
That a liberal Dem could win a Texas senate seat was always a long shot, but the fact that he has a red-meat right-winger like Cruz fighting for his political life means *everything* for local down-ballot races. This is the future.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
- Daehawk
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
If I had some Photoshop skills Id take that pic from Starship Troopers where all the soldiers have the brainbug pulled out. Id label the soldiers Dems and put Trump's wig on the brainbug and label it Trump. Then Id have NPH doing his thing yelling "It's afraid!!!!!"
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I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake.
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"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake.
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- Max Peck
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
If you're expecting Beto O'Rourke to beat Ted Cruz, expect to be disappointed. The story is that O'Rourke made it a race when it should be a GOP cakewalk, not that he has much of a chance to win.
Edit: What Holman said...
Edit: What Holman said...
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- Kraken
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Huh. North Korea has same-sex marriage? You learn something new every day.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Beto's got a shot, but not a great one - probably like 20% - 25%. Wouldn't be crazy for him to win, but it's unlikely. Kind of mirrors the Democrats chances in the Senate more generally - they've got a shot (and it's a little crazy that they do, given the Senate map), but the main action is in the House.
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- coopasonic
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
I'm going to vote for Beto as many times as it takes... I mean assuming it only takes one. If it takes more than that... well, I'm too... scared for prison.
-Coop
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- Defiant
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- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
I'm not totally sure which states have R incumbents not running for re-election, but looks to be roughly at least half a dozen or so Democratic governorship pickups at this point.
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- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
What I would like to know (and this would also require knowing how the state legislatures will turn out) is how this will affect the effort to prevent and undo gerrymandering after the next census. One good thing is that Democrats will likely have governorships in almost half the states, and overall will have them in larger states (that therefore have more districts) than Republicans.
- El Guapo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
With the exception of the 1 or 2 states that have commissions running the redistricting (thinking of Arizona here), getting the governorship would mean that the Democrats in that state could at least veto a map that they didn't like (assuming for the moment that Republicans don't have a veto-proof majority in the relevant state). Obviously if the Democrats also control the legislature (probably not many states, but probably a few) then they would be in total control of the redistricting.Defiant wrote: ↑Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:42 am What I would like to know (and this would also require knowing how the state legislatures will turn out) is how this will affect the effort to prevent and undo gerrymandering after the next census. One good thing is that Democrats will likely have governorships in almost half the states, and overall will have them in larger states (that therefore have more districts) than Republicans.
Black Lives Matter.
- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Found details:
https://ballotpedia.org/State-by-state_ ... procedures
Six states have independent commissions, seven states only have one district, and the other 37 have the legislatures do it. In 35 of those 37 the Governor can veto (NC and CT don't allow vetoing)
https://ballotpedia.org/State-by-state_ ... procedures
Six states have independent commissions, seven states only have one district, and the other 37 have the legislatures do it. In 35 of those 37 the Governor can veto (NC and CT don't allow vetoing)
- Paingod
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
That's cool. I didn't know until now that Maine's Mills v Moody fight wasn't even close. I see Moody signs everywhere, and few Mills. I live in a very rural area. LePage - a royal asshole and small Trump in his own ways - is on his way out, and I've heard that Moody is his Mini-Me. Pass on that.
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2021-01-20: The first good night's sleep I had in 4 years.
2021-01-20: The first good night's sleep I had in 4 years.
- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
In the Gubernatorial race in Alaska, the independent incumbent is suspending his campaign and endorsing the Democrat.
- Holman
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Rick Scott, Envy of the World!!
This is the second or third time that Trump has declared a GOP candidate to be the best in the world while warning that the Dem will "destroy the state."
"Next Venezuela" is a nice touch. I look forward to seeing state governments nationalize their industries and begin imprisoning opponents.
This is the second or third time that Trump has declared a GOP candidate to be the best in the world while warning that the Dem will "destroy the state."
"Next Venezuela" is a nice touch. I look forward to seeing state governments nationalize their industries and begin imprisoning opponents.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
- Carpet_pissr
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
Likewise.YellowKing wrote:No offense to South Carolina, but I don't want none of that.Isgrimnur wrote:Nah, we just would have a Super Carolina.
- Defiant
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
In order to vote, these people have to get the hell out of dodge.
Access to the ballot box in November will be more difficult for some people in Dodge City, where Hispanics now make up 60 percent of its population and have remade an iconic Wild West town that once was the destination of cowboys and buffalo hunters who frequented the Long Branch Saloon.
At a time when many rural towns are slowly dying, the arrival of two massive meatpacking plants boosted Dodge City’s economy and transformed its demographics as immigrants from Mexico and other countries flooded in to fill those jobs.
But the city located 160 miles (257 kilometers) west of Wichita has only one polling site for its 27,000 residents. Since 2002, the lone site was at the civic center just blocks from the local country club — in the wealthy, white part of town. For this November’s election, local officials have moved it outside the city limits to a facility more than a mile from the nearest bus stop, citing road construction that blocked the previous site.
- GreenGoo
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2018?
I would so love to see busloads of voters pile out early at the voting station, creating a backlog a mile long. If that prevents wealthy people from voting, they would only have themselves to blame.
The look of wealthy white males standing impatiently in line behind thousands of not wealthy white males would be an epic photo-op.
The look of wealthy white males standing impatiently in line behind thousands of not wealthy white males would be an epic photo-op.