The Global Warming Thread

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Zaxxon
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

That is one interpretation. I actually do expect the leader of the country to address threats impacting the future security of said country, to the extent that leader is able. Willfully electing not to do so is absolutely worthy of blame.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

I didn't realize we were actually in the Global Warming thread. In that context your concerns are more valid than I thought, as I didn't realize Remus was specifically talking about Climate Change, even though I should have.

And no one could disagree that incrementally hindering (as compared to decades of damage already done, it's very incremental) is far worse, at least morally, than incrementally helping. That said, the differences in practical outcome between incrementally helping, doing nothing, and incrementally hindering are nearly zero.

Doing nothing or too little results in the same outcome as hindering. That doesn't mean the GOP shouldn't be taken to task, they absolutely should be. In the end though, we're just as screwed if the GOP didn't exist. There is little reason for optimism or evidence that the world can change fast enough to counter the damage already done. That doesn't mean we shouldn't try, but it does mean that our efforts are likely futile.

It's still important to fight the good fight. Go down swinging. But going down is all but guaranteed. I'll happily be proven wrong, and I'll help how I can to prove myself wrong.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

I don't think you understand how this works. The GOP, and Trump specifically, are actively hindering to the max. The result of that, in the long term, is ginormous even relative to where we were when Trump took over.

Doing a little makes a huge difference. Have you read the last IPCC report? Each tenth of a degree is hugely important. 'We're fucked anyway' is not a valid outlook. At least not if you have or care about kids.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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I don't think you understand. The world exists outside of America.

A tenth of a degree is not easy. It's a herculean co-ordinated world effort. Sure if we can slow things down enough to give science, attitudes and social and economic change more time to work is absolutely how this is going to be beaten, if it is. As I said, there is little reason for optimism. That doesn't mean we stop fighting.

The truth is the truth whether you have children or not. Geezus. If only someone would think about them.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Canada, a socially liberal and relatively progressive country, a 10th of the size of the US, with strong environmental and social imperatives, with a current government as serious about climate change as they come, is making almost no progress reducing our position as the EIGHTH most responsible country for climate change.

But no, yeah, we're totally just one president/American political party away from solving this thing. If enough people think of the children, everything will magically work itself out.

I can have a shitty attitude about the possible outcomes while working hard to try to turn things around anyway. You can have as optimistic an attitude as you want, but optimism isn't magic. Fatalism doesn't mean we just stop and sit on our hands either.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:02 amoptimism isn't magic
When people call me a pessimist, I tell them it's a requirement for my job. If I was an optimist, the network would crash within a week. :D
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

The US isn't even the country most responsible for Climate Change, although you did get a headstart on the rest of us. You could do everything in your power, making the changes needed instantly and today, and still not stop the inevitability of the destructive forces that come with Climate Change.

How is a strong anti-climate change party in America going to get Russia to change their ways? Or even China, where some could argue that economic pressures could be brought to bear?
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:53 am I don't think you understand. The world exists outside of America.
Of course.
A tenth of a degree is not easy.
Of course.
<0.1 degree> is a herculean co-ordinated world effort.
No, it's certainly within the grasp of the USA. We're a giant CO2 emitter. We matter. Aside from the influence an American-led policy would have on the rest of the world, solely reducing America's output would have a measurable impact on the world's temperature rise. Solving the problem is a herculean coordinated world effort. Having an impact on the outcome is entirely within the USA's grasp. This is illustrated by the fact that Trump is absolutely having an impact on the outcome by fighting to roll back CAFE standards, opening up further drilling, etc.
Sure if we can slow things down enough to give science, attitudes and social and economic change more time to work is absolutely how this is going to be beaten, if it is. As I said, there is little reason for optimism. That doesn't mean we stop fighting.
No one said stop fighting. This began by you talking about Trump doing damage but being thwarted at nearly every step, then claiming that the USA's stance on climate change isn't Trump's fault. Then I said it's Trump's fault. It's absolutely Trump's fault. (Not solely, but in significant part as I look at the calendar and see 11/29/2018.)
GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:02 am Canada, a socially liberal and relatively progressive country, a 10th of the size of the US, with strong environmental and social imperatives, with a current government as serious about climate change as they come, is making almost no progress reducing our position as the EIGHTH most responsible country for climate change.
It's true that Canada matters extremely little compared to the US. Thanks for making that point. :)
But no, yeah, we're totally just one president/American political party away from solving this thing. If enough people think of the children, everything will magically work itself out.
Straw man. I certainly didn't say any of that.
I can have a shitty attitude about the possible outcomes while working hard to try to turn things around anyway. You can have as optimistic an attitude as you want, but optimism isn't magic.
Somewhat hilarious that you would construe my attitude re AGW as optimistic. :horse: There's no magic bullet here. Simply the fact that each ton of CO2 emitted is additive. Ergo, each ton avoided reduces the impact / extends the end date of this civilization's timeline on the planet. And thus, it's worth caring about each ton emitted.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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Paingod wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:08 am
GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:02 amoptimism isn't magic
When people call me a pessimist, I tell them it's a requirement for my job. If I was an optimist, the network would crash within a week. :D
I wrote that, but in some ways optimism *is* magic. A good attitude will boost morale and inspire people to stronger efforts, especially in things that require "spirit" like sports or war or other tings of that nature.

Climate Change isn't one of those things. It might inspire local communities to be more green friendly, but that's not going to stop Climate Change.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Kay. I've said my piece. You're on your own Zax.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:09 amHow is a strong anti-climate change party in America going to get Russia to change their ways? Or even China, where some could argue that economic pressures could be brought to bear?
Continuing to demonstrate that you're not understanding the point here. No one can stop all countries from emitting. One of the top emitters, who's in a position to laughably easily greatly reduce their output, deciding to do so matters. Deciding not to do so matters. This isn't a binary issue where we succeed or we fail (we've already decided to fail, and that is inevitable). There are many layers of failure, and which layer we end up in matters.

China is kicking the USA's ass in moving to renewable energy usage and production, even while continuing to increase their coal usage. They're in a far different economic act than the USA is. They'll get there, and their leadership will eventually turn around. Russia's another story, but that's a problem to address after the USA gets its own act together.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:12 am Kay. I've said my piece. You're on your own Zax.
:violin:
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:10 am It's true that Canada matters extremely little compared to the US. Thanks for making that point. :)
And the US can't solve this by itself. The fact that it isn't trying matters very little. The US could disappear tomorrow and it wouldn't stop Climate Change, just buy the rest of us more time.
Last edited by GreenGoo on Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:14 am
GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:12 am Kay. I've said my piece. You're on your own Zax.
:violin:
You've certainly turned me around on the subject. Great effort.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:15 am
Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:10 am It's true that Canada matters extremely little compared to the US. Thanks for making that point. :)
And the US can't solve this by itself. The fact that it isn't trying matters very little. The US could disappear tomorrow and it wouldn't stop Climate Change, just buy the rest of us more time.
First, you go back to 'stopping' climate change. That's not a thing. Then, you agree with my point--that the USA's output matters. Thanks.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:17 am First, you go back to 'stopping' climate change. That's not a thing. Then, you agree with my point--that the USA's output matters. Thanks.
Your point is ridiculous. Every country with industry contributes to Climate Change.

If "stopping" Climate Change (in this context, obviously) is not a thing, what's the outcome you are hoping for? Slowing it down? How much slower would you consider a success? Why? Which "layer of failure" is acceptable, which are not?
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:19 am
Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:17 am First, you go back to 'stopping' climate change. That's not a thing. Then, you agree with my point--that the USA's output matters. Thanks.
Your point is ridiculous. Every country with industry contributes to Climate Change.

If "stopping" Climate Change (in this context, obviously) is not a thing, what's the outcome you are hoping for? Slowing it down? How much slower would you consider a success? Why? Which "layer of failure" is acceptable, which are not?
This is weird. I am not used to seeing you dig in when you're so objectively wrong.

Yes, every country (industry or not) contributes. They contribute in differing amounts. The US is one of the 'most important' contributors due to our high output relative to other nations. These are objectively true statements.

The outcome I'm hoping for--which I've made abundantly clear--is for countries which are in a position to reduce their output to do so. That has the effect of slowing down the rate of change, extending the time frame for the world's total output to be reined in or some currently-viewed-as-magical 'fix' to be developed. As I would like to see the human civilization continue to flourish on the planet after my own demise, this time frame is important.

No layer of failure is acceptable, but this does not mean that since we've entered some level of guaranteed failure, we should sit down and stop caring about where we're headed. I'm not sure why this is unclear to you.

If we're guaranteed to now hit a point where random ass-pulled numbers incoming in 2150 we've displaced 100 million people, generated additional resource conflicts causing 50 million casualties, caused the coral reefs to drop to 5% of current size, and reduced the world economic output relative to now by $1T, but if we continue on our current trend those numbers will be 250 million people, 200 million, 0%, and $3T, I don't see why we stop working to avoid scenario B because scenario A is already terrible.

The natural result of this worldview is that I tend to assign blame to leaders who are actively abdicating their responsibility to attempt to address the problem. When those leaders also discount the existence of said threat, I get a little angsty.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:39 am This is weird. I am not used to seeing you dig in when you're so objectively wrong.
Oh good lord. Run out of ways to "think of the children" did we?

The only difference in our positions is that you think changing US leadership will make enough of a difference as to matter. That's where this topic started. How we define "matters" is clearly different, and even if it were the same, we evaluate the significance of that "matters" differently. If I'm objectively wrong so be.

edit: Actually, never mind. Hopefully your posts have been useful to others.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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I was hoping for a more rational reply, but I guess I'll take that one. Good day, sir.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:43 am I was hoping for a more rational reply, but I guess I'll take that one. Good day, sir.
There's nothing irrational about my reply.

The "reason" this conversation is combative, is because of things like this:
Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:49 am 'We're fucked anyway' is not a valid outlook. At least not if you have or care about kids.
Suggesting that my attitude implies I don't love my kids is too far. I didn't say it then but I will now. Fuck you.

Ditto to the rest.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:47 am
Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:43 am I was hoping for a more rational reply, but I guess I'll take that one. Good day, sir.
There's nothing irrational about my reply.

The "reason" this conversation is combative, is because of things like this:
Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:49 am 'We're fucked anyway' is not a valid outlook. At least not if you have or care about kids.
Suggesting that my attitude implies I don't love my kids is too far. I didn't say it then but I will now. Fuck you.

Ditto to the rest.
Ah, you added the rational parts after my initial reply--when I replied, your post was simply more nonsense about running out of ways of thinking of the children. Then you removed them in a second edit.

Your first edit suggested that we are just viewing the fact that there are multiple possible 'bad' outcomes in a different way. That's true, and a better way to think about this / respond. It's also true that my view that it's worth caring about which one we hit is the 'correct' one (or at least the more useful one), but I appreciate the momentary higher discourse.

As for taking my posts to imply that I said you don't care about your kids--nonsense. I'll accept the personal attacks that followed as a side effect of my perhaps not being the best communicator, and you therefore misconstruing my comments. I'm not insinuating that you don't love your kids. Merely that anything less than pushing within your means to make a positive impact on AGW is doing them a disservice.

That's not really an objectionable statement, as it's tautological.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Isgrimnur »

GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:15 am First, I don't believe for a second that anyone would let him launch nukes. Even his closest supporters understand that he's unstable and only support him because they're getting something out of it. Destroying the world would severely reduce whatever they are getting out of it.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:57 am
As for taking my posts to imply that I said you don't care about your kids--nonsense. I'll accept the personal attacks that followed as a side effect of my perhaps not being the best communicator, and you therefore misconstruing my comments. I'm not insinuating that you don't love your kids. Merely that anything less than pushing within your means to make a positive impact on AGW is doing them a disservice.

That's not really an objectionable statement, as it's tautological.
And yet that's exactly what your words said, while my words said that I'm taking personal steps to reduce my own impact and my family's on the climate, as well as supporting politicians with strong Climate Change stances (would hope this could be intuited from my words. If not, here it is written out).

If your concern is about me sitting on my hands, I said I wasn't, multiple times. If your concern is my negative attitude, that's a shame. If your concern is that I think we're fucked and you don't think we're fucked, well, even the science community isn't in agreement on that, so "objectively" is bullshit.

You got your points in. It's not like I haven't seen them before. In any case giving up is not an option, as I had already said earlier. That doesn't mean I have to believe against significant data otherwise, that we're not fucked.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

Bizarre. I'll let it be.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:08 am Bizarre. I'll let it be.
Right. Sure. Thanks for your charity.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Here's an article that attempts to be optimistic about moderating Climate Change.

Washington Post article

It's...not comforting. It's "possible" in the same way that winning the lottery is possible. That's not reason for optimism. But you can't win if you don't buy a ticket, and I buy tickets.

I use a so called "positive" article because it's practically grasping at straws.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:47 am Suggesting that my attitude implies I don't love my kids is too far. I didn't say it then but I will now. Fuck you.

Ditto to the rest.
Seriously?

Are you having a bad quarter? While we rarely see eye to eye, I've never seen you quite so aggressive and rude.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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This'll be my final effort on this. Mostly because I don't understand what you don't understand about what I've written, or what's "bizarre" about my responses to you, given the conversation that preceded it. You're free to whatever conclusions you make about what I've said, although I think they are unfair and unreasonable in the context they were said.

I think you are reading what you want to read and ignoring what you don't want to read, so I'm going to spell out the conversation as it happened and as I see it.

Here's where we started
Remus West wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:04 am
GreenGoo wrote: Wed Nov 28, 2018 4:42 pm
There will be time for compassion once he has been removed as a danger to himself and others. With a guy who has access to the nuclear football, "danger to others" has never been a more appropriate concern.
<snip> The rest of the long term damage he is causing is going to inflict so much hardship and suffering that I have more anxiety about his day to day destruction of Democracy in America that nuclear devistation.
Remus is clearly talking about the destruction of democracy, not climate change.

To which I reply to his concerns about democracy:
GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:15 am Second, some perspective. He's only been president for 2 years, and while he has done more damage than any president in living memory, it's still not the end of your country by any stretch of the imagination, or way of life.
At which point you counter by discussing Climate Change. Fair enough. It's a Climate Change thread after all, even though neither Remus nor I were talking about it in the quoted material above.

I reply that I agree that Climate Change may contribute to the decline of your country in this context, but the two aren't directly related.

I then agree that hindering is morally worse than helping, but from a practical stand point, not much different. Because as the one (of a zillion) article I posted suggests, it's essentially impossible to make mitigate the harm that we're causing. It's not impossible. It's also not impossible for your entire country to agree politically. What are the chances of that?

I read "there is hope if we do this" and look at "this" and despair. It seems like you read "there is hope" and believe there is hope. I'm not going to step on your hope. Hope is a good thing. I just don't think it's warranted. We have decades of documented proof that the threat is real and that the world is not only not going to make any significant headway, but is actually going to make it worse. This is independent of GOP leadership.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:25 am
GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:47 am Suggesting that my attitude implies I don't love my kids is too far. I didn't say it then but I will now. Fuck you.

Ditto to the rest.
Seriously?

Are you having a bad quarter? While we rarely see eye to eye, I've never seen you quite so aggressive and rude.
Yes, god damn seriously. Zaxxon said this in the context of discussing my "we're fucked anyway" outlook. I was aggressive and rude because he went after my love for my kids.
Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 9:49 am 'We're fucked anyway' is not a valid outlook. At least not if you have or care about kids.
Please explain how this can be interpreted other than "your attitude means you don't have or care about kids". We had already established that my attitude is "we're fucked" when he wrote this.

I'm waiting.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

That doesn't say you don't care about your kids. It says your outlook is invalid given that you care about your kids.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:39 am That doesn't say you don't care about your kids. It says your outlook is invalid given that you care about your kids.
Give me a break. At best it's "How can you have that attitude given that you love your kids". At. Best. And Best in this case just uses my love of my kids to emotionally invalidate my position. You haven't actually established that my love for my kids and my attitude are incompatible. You've just stated it as fact. So either my outlook is wrong or I don't love my kids. You haven't convinced me I'm wrong or even established any incompatibility, which leaves, what, exactly?
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

The fact that I haven't convinced you does not mean I didn't show it to be true. It's not that complicated.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:46 am The fact that I haven't convinced you does not mean I didn't show it to be true. It's not that complicated.
And yet you haven't. The sheer volume of research and articles over the last several decades are, politely, not encouraging. "making a difference" is not enough to matter, depending on your definition of matter, I guess.

Commuting to work using public transportation matters too. So what.

The US is only 14ish% of the world greenhouse emissions. China is nearly double that. Even IF the US disappeared and China was successful moving to greener energy, you still have Brazil, Indonesia, India, Russia and Mexico picking up the slack. I didn't include other major contributors like Germany, Japan or Canada because they might actually be able to change a little. But only a little.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

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You've put me in the awkward position of trying to convince people that there is no hope. That's not a position I want to participate in, even if I believe it's true. Convincing people that they are doomed is not something I enjoy, and is counter to who I want to be.

Again, you're free to your own conclusions. Data and interpretation of that data does not strongly support your conclusions, but convincing you that "we're all fucked" is not something I'm willing to try any longer, and it was a mistake to go down that path in the first place. You have not convinced me there is hope, so we are at an impasse.

Even if I believed that you didn't mean to attack my relationship with kids, which I don't, there's little more to be said to each other.

Good luck. I truly hope your outlook is right and mine is wrong.

If you choose to denigrate this response, then we're probably through in all other ways as well.
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Zaxxon »

Yegads; you and your edits. Makes replying difficult. Maybe preview first, and sit on the reply for a few minutes. :)

You continue to beat that drum (that it's only enough to matter if all countries make drastic cuts immediately), but it's not correct. Continuing to beat it does not make it more accurate. You fixate on stopping AGW at some arbitrary point. That's not going to happen. It's also not suggestive that since we can't get the peachy keen outcome, we should accept that we're fuct. Regardless of what other countries/continents/political parties/<insert group of choice here> do, we each need to do our part, and it matters that we do our part.

This is not up for debate--dropping CO2 emissions results in... dropping CO2 emissions. Dropping CO2 emissions results in lower warming. Whether <group we can impact> results in 0.1 degree of change or 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 degree of change, it's something that needs to be done. We are talking about the destruction of our civilization.

To complete the circle of this discussion--you said: Trump's been thwarted at every step, and that the decline of America may speed up climate change and 'it's not Trump's fault.' He's not been thwarted, it is his fault, and it matters that we continue to point that out / fight it wherever possible.
GreenGoo wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:00 pm You've put me in the awkward position of trying to convince people that there is no hope. That's not a position I want to participate in, even if I believe it's true. Convincing people that they are doomed is not something I enjoy, and is counter to who I want to be.
We're doomed. The extent of 'doomed' is the part that's TBD.
Again, you're free to your own conclusions. Data and interpretation of that data does not strongly support your conclusions, but convincing you that "we're all fucked" is not something I'm willing to try any longer, and it was a mistake to go down that path in the first place. You have not convinced me there is hope, so we are at an impasse.
You misstate my conclusions, apparently. Data absolutely supports the idea that how much we continue to emit matters. Agreed on the impasse.
Even if I believed that you didn't mean to attack my relationship with kids, which I don't, there's little more to be said to each other.
C'est la vie.
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GreenGoo
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by GreenGoo »

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:10 pm Yegads; you and your edits. Makes replying difficult. Maybe preview first, and sit on the reply for a few minutes. :)
Finally some agreement.

In my defense my edits are "usually" pretty fast, "usually" not substantial, and "usually" done before anyone responds. That doesn't make it acceptable though.
Zaxxon wrote: Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:10 pm C'est la vie.
And more agreement.
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em2nought
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by em2nought »

Looks like Paris is revolting against Macron's narrative of "Let them drive Teslas!". :doh: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fran ... SKCN1O02WU

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Technically, he shouldn't be here.
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Paingod
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Paingod »

An interesting technology. Plants that remove CO2 from the atmosphere to turn it into solid waste or fuel.
...the company's pilot plant removes just one ton of CO2 from the air each day, and produces only about two barrels of synthetic fuel. But Oldham says his company is ready to start building larger plants.
A tiny step, and certainly not a solution - but maybe a piece of the larger puzzle to an answer.
Black Lives Matter

2021-01-20: The first good night's sleep I had in 4 years.
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Combustible Lemur
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by Combustible Lemur »

Paingod wrote:An interesting technology. Plants that remove CO2 from the atmosphere to turn it into solid waste or fuel.
...the company's pilot plant removes just one ton of CO2 from the air each day, and produces only about two barrels of synthetic fuel. But Oldham says his company is ready to start building larger plants.
A tiny step, and certainly not a solution - but maybe a piece of the larger puzzle to an answer.
[Snark] don't all plants pull co2 to make fuel? [/snark]

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geezer
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Re: The Global Warming Thread

Post by geezer »

em2nought wrote: Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:28 pm Looks like Paris is revolting against Macron's narrative of "Let them drive Teslas!". :doh: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fran ... SKCN1O02WU

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Ignorant, deplorable populists know no national boundaries.
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