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Trump Trade War

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Octavious
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Octavious » Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:21 pm

Farmers are sick of this bs as they are getting killed. If this war is still going on when the elections happen it's not going to help him in the least bit.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by tjg_marantz » Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:38 am

Octavious wrote:Farmers are sick of this bs as they are getting killed. If this war is still going on when the elections happen it's not going to help him in the least bit.
According to fox news, they are sticking with him...
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Scraper » Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:28 am

According to CNBC he still has an approval rating with farmers near 80%, which is just mind boggling. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/10/trump-i ... china.html
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Enough » Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:48 am

If China acts on Hong Kong this trade war is going to get really tense.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:20 am

Scraper wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:28 am
According to CNBC he still has an approval rating with farmers near 80%, which is just mind boggling. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/10/trump-i ... china.html
I think it is safe to say that with Trump economic considerations are *not* a key factor for this segment.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by gilraen » Tue Aug 13, 2019 9:47 am

tjg_marantz wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:38 am
Octavious wrote:Farmers are sick of this bs as they are getting killed. If this war is still going on when the elections happen it's not going to help him in the least bit.
According to fox news, they are sticking with him...
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:19 am

Does that mean he can cut their subsidies that China even if China were paying for, would be a short fall, especially as it's unfair to other exporters not being subsidized by tariffs on Chinese goods?

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Blackhawk » Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:59 am

Trump won by stoking peoples' pride. That same pride makes it impossible for them to admit that they were wrong now that 'us vs them' has advanced to a point that they see "I was wrong" as "you were right." Many people who still support Trump have such cognitive dissonance that they are outright blocking contradictory information from their thinking process.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:14 am

Blackhawk wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:59 am
Trump won by stoking peoples' pride. That same pride makes it impossible for them to admit that they were wrong now that 'us vs them' has advanced to a point that they see "I was wrong" as "you were right." Many people who still support Trump have such cognitive dissonance that they are outright blocking contradictory information from their thinking process.
If the remaining "I don't support Trump but..." people in my life are a barometer, they're blaming democrats for obstructing and for being an even worse choice that is forcing them to support what is going on. All government is fucking them the but socialist extremist liberal democrats are the worst. Maybe the lack of enthusiasm will keep them at home so they can blame the shit storm that is about to come on democratic leadership freshly controlling 1/2 of federal government instead of freshly controlling 1/6th of federal government.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:47 am

Blackhawk wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 10:59 am
Trump won by stoking peoples' pride. That same pride makes it impossible for them to admit that they were wrong now that 'us vs them' has advanced to a point that they see "I was wrong" as "you were right." Many people who still support Trump have such cognitive dissonance that they are outright blocking contradictory information from their thinking process.
They have an easy cognitive fall-back: "It's all about the Supreme Court." I'm hearing that more and more as his supporters lose everything but their hats.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:05 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:47 am
They have an easy cognitive fall-back: "It's all about the Supreme Court." I'm hearing that more and more as his supporters lose everything but their hats.
That's what I was trying to say 2015. That was Lady Marmalade's never ending spiel on the campaign trail and Clinton rarely rallied in those terms, even as Obama was being obstructed for months on end. I couldn't understand it then and it's a primary source of my anger now. it's literally the root reason I say McConnell is the worst American of my lifetime and those that rally behind it and consider it a victory, there's no point in engaging with them. They've hit 160F. They are where I finally gave in to Us and Them.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by stessier » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:26 pm

Some tariffs scheduled to take effect Sept 1 have been pushed off until Dec 15 so as not to mess up Christmas shopping.
“We’re doing this for the Christmas season,” Trump told reporters on an airport tarmac around noon Tuesday. “Just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on U.S. customers.”

“But so far they’ve had virtually none,” the president added. “But just in case they might have an impact on people, what we’ve done is we’ve delayed it, so that they won’t be relevant to the Christmas shopping season.”
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Smoove_B » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:29 pm

So in a roundabout way, he's confirmed that his tariffs are a War on Christmas - and he's just delaying that war until 2020?
I'm breaking down, I'm burning out and it's not funny like on television

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Octavious » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:43 pm

I'm SHOCKED. SHOCKKKKKKKKED that he's not going ahead with the plan in September. Of course we just need a hit piece from Fox to make him change his mind back.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:50 pm

What in the everloving fuck?

Every goddamned day he has a new stupid thing to say.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:53 pm

Smoove_B wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:29 pm
So in a roundabout way, he's confirmed that his tariffs are a War on Christmas - and he's just delaying that war until 2020?
No, just delaying until Dec 15 according to the CNBC article. So it's a last minute war, in the Christmas shopping spirit!
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:58 pm

What they are saying is they don't want this to actually hit people in the pocket the Christmas before the election. Opportunistic shit bags.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Tue Aug 13, 2019 1:22 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:50 pm
What in the everloving fuck?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1UZ24U

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by hepcat » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:10 pm



What the f is this idiot trying to say? :?
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:15 pm

Many give him credit when the market is doing well but blame the democrat obstruction when it is not. I can't imagine why.

Some people are saying he's the greatest president ever and one know Cheye-na better than him.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:55 pm

Bloomberg
The White House, while delaying tariffs on big-ticket consumer products until December, decided to push ahead with 10% tariffs on Chinese agricultural products as well as antiques, clothes, kitchenware and footwear from Sept. 1. The list ranges from the exotic -- live primates, whales and foxes -- to the more usual fare of milk and edible oils.

But the amount of farm products China exports to the U.S. is much smaller than what it imports from America, even with the retaliatory tariffs in place. China shipped $3.1 billion worth of farm goods to America in the first half of this year, while it purchased $5.6 billion of U.S. agricultural items over the same period, according to Chinese customs data.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:01 pm

CNN
The Dow fell more than 600 points Wednesday after the bond market, for the first time in over a decade, flashed a warning signal that has an eerily accurate track record for predicting recessions.

Here's what happened: The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell below 1.6% Wednesday morning, dropping just below the yield of the 2-year Treasury bond. It marked the first time since 2007 that 10-year bond yields fell below 2-year yields.

US stocks fell as investors sold stock in companies and moved it into bonds. The Dow (INDU) was about 2.4% lower. The broader S&P 500 (SPX) was down 2.4% and the Nasdaq (COMP) sank 2.6% Wednesday.

CNN Business' Fear and Greed Index signaled investors were fearful. The VIX (VIX) volatility index spiked 20%.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Octavious » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:26 pm

Trump is screaming how it's the Feds fault. :lol: Amazing how he's always surrounded by people that all suck while he's awesome. Must be rough.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by $iljanus » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:35 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:Bloomberg
The White House, while delaying tariffs on big-ticket consumer products until December, decided to push ahead with 10% tariffs on Chinese agricultural products as well as antiques, clothes, kitchenware and footwear from Sept. 1. The list ranges from the exotic -- live primates, whales and foxes -- to the more usual fare of milk and edible oils.

But the amount of farm products China exports to the U.S. is much smaller than what it imports from America, even with the retaliatory tariffs in place. China shipped $3.1 billion worth of farm goods to America in the first half of this year, while it purchased $5.6 billion of U.S. agricultural items over the same period, according to Chinese customs data.
Hmm, better nail down that large order of primates quick...
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Freyland » Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:53 pm

$iljanus wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:35 pm
Isgrimnur wrote:Bloomberg
The White House, while delaying tariffs on big-ticket consumer products until December, decided to push ahead with 10% tariffs on Chinese agricultural products as well as antiques, clothes, kitchenware and footwear from Sept. 1. The list ranges from the exotic -- live primates, whales and foxes -- to the more usual fare of milk and edible oils.

But the amount of farm products China exports to the U.S. is much smaller than what it imports from America, even with the retaliatory tariffs in place. China shipped $3.1 billion worth of farm goods to America in the first half of this year, while it purchased $5.6 billion of U.S. agricultural items over the same period, according to Chinese customs data.
Hmm, better nail down that large order of primates quick...
Pro-tip: remember Amazon Prime won't let you order primates as just an "Add-on".
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Octavious » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:27 pm

-1880 for the month. That's pretty impressive. If I had time I would map the stock drops to the dumb shit he did. Hell you could pretty much do it by the minute using the twitter timestamps.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:34 pm

Octavious wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:27 pm
-1880 for the month. That's pretty impressive. If I had time I would map the stock drops to the dumb shit he did. Hell you could pretty much do it by the minute using the twitter timestamps.
I just saw a a collection of the ups and downs yesterday and I can't remember where I put a link and I can't find it today.

Edit:

it was in my last post

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1UZ24U

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Grifman » Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:56 pm

hepcat wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:10 pm


What the f is this idiot trying to say? :?
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:02 pm

Grifman wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:56 pm
hepcat wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:10 pm


What the f is this idiot trying to say? :?
The press in China has been blaming "outside agitators" hinting broadly that Western govts are behind the protests.
That is probably not good for the people in HK.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:33 pm

Grifman wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:56 pm
hepcat wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:10 pm


What the f is this idiot trying to say? :?
The press in China has been blaming "outside agitators" hinting broadly that Western govts are behind the protests.
Ordinarily I would give such accusations some credence, but I find it hard to believe that this administration has the soft power to pull off something like that, or the ability to keep anything clandestine...unless they're doing it without Trump's knowledge.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by hepcat » Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:26 am

It’s the kicker at the end that confuses me. In Trump speak, that sounds like he’s bragging that he IS responsible.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:29 pm

Bloomberg Editorial Board
Stocks tanked last week amid signs of a worsening slowdown in Germany and China, and bond investors flashed the clearest signal yet that the U.S. is courting a self-inflicted recession. Hopefully these cries of alarm from financial markets will cause President Trump and his advisers to stop and think. If not, steel yourself for worse to come.

Slowing growth in Europe and China has various causes, but high on the list is trade — because Trump has made disrupting commerce his main instrument of economic policy. Right now, damage to the flow of goods and services is the least of it. Far more dangerous is the blow to confidence and investment. Firms and investors are starting to ask where the president’s willingness to wreck the global economic architecture might actually lead.

Until now, the tendency has been to see the administration’s protectionist initiatives as a combination of tactical (hence temporary) disruptions and threats that will come to nothing. This is presumably why stock markets have mostly been betting on further expansion. But Trump, erratic in so many other respects, has been consistent on one thing: his disdain for international cooperation in general, and for the liberal order of global trade in particular. An idea seems to be dawning at last: Perhaps he really is willing to see both destroyed.
...
If this happens, the costs would be staggering. The mere risk that it might happen, once the possibility begins to be taken seriously, could easily be enough to push the U.S. and the world into another recession.
...
Sadly, even if he wanted to, Trump couldn’t entirely undo the damage he’s caused. The world now knows what it’s dealing with. With trust gone, the president can’t repair the partnerships he has so blithely fractured, and restoring confidence in the stability of the global trading order will take years of wiser leadership. Yet the president and his officials can at least refrain from making matters any worse, by ending their policy of reckless aggression on trade. And Congress should start reaffirming its constitutional responsibility for tariff policy and claim back the trade powers it has delegated to the White House.

With luck, this glimpse of a Trump slump will do some good. But if the president just plows on, and Congress lets him, the economic consequences could be dire.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:36 pm

WaPo
Several senior White House officials have begun discussing whether to push for a temporary payroll tax cut as a way to arrest an economic slowdown, three people familiar with the discussions said, revealing the growing concerns by President Trump’s top economic aides.

The talks are still in their early stages, and the officials have not decided whether to formally push Congress to approve the cut, these people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to disclose internal discussions. But the White House in recent days has begun searching for proposals that could halt a slowing economy.

Millions of Americans pay a “payroll tax” on their earnings, a 6.2 percent levy that is used to finance Social Security programs. The payroll tax was last cut during the Obama administration to 4.2 percent, as a way to encourage more consumer spending during the recent economic downturn. But the cut was allowed to reset back up to 6.2 percent in 2013.

Americans pay payroll taxes on income up to $132,900, so cutting the payroll tax has remained a popular idea for many lawmakers seeking to deliver savings for middle-income earners and not the wealthiest Americans. But payroll tax cuts can also add dramatically to the deficit and – depending on how they are designed – pull billions of dollars away from Social Security.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:34 pm

Boomer logic at its finest. Always ready to kick that can down the road so their children have to deal with it. Fuck that.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:11 pm

malchior wrote:
Mon Aug 19, 2019 6:34 pm
Fuck that.
That's about it. Boomers paid for their parents. We're paying for them and the next generation pays for us. Making boomer investment stronger while drying the well of payroll taxes after cutting corporate taxes and public funding almost across the board as answer to trade you clamoring to kill is puppies.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:08 pm

BI
Morris Coffman has been a truck driver for 35 years. And he's been a conservative for even longer than that — his whole life.

"That said," Coffman told Business Insider, "[Trump] is absolutely a moron. His idiotic ideas will tank the economy even further."

Truckers, like Coffman, lean conservative. A Verdant Labs analysis of Federal Elections Commission data found that nearly three-quarters of truck drivers are Republican — one of the most conservative jobs in America, along with surgeons and farmers.
...
But a sharp downturn in the trucking industry and a slew of tax changes have hampered their ability to make a living. And many connect those two trends to Trump's economic policies.

"He has not affected our business in a positive way," said one truck driver who asked to be quoted anonymously for fear their small business might suffer. "He's killing our business. If consumers aren't buying, then there is no demand. This really isn't about my political leanings — it's pure business."

Trump's tax reworking in 2017 led to many truck drivers having to pay hundreds in taxes this year, thanks to a change in per-diem laws. Dennis Bridges, an accountant who specializes in doing taxes for truckers, told Mother Jones in April that 75% of his clients saw an unusually large tax payment, and about 20% had to fork over more than $5,000.

That might've been bearable in 2018, when trucking capacity was tight, the industry was raking in cash, and truckers saw their pay jump. But now the trucking "bloodbath," as Coffman and other truckers describe current transportation conditions, has meant low rates and low pay for truckers. Trucking has been in a recession since late 2018.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:05 pm

The article goes on to note that 2018 was a banner year and 2019 is mainly a "bloodbath" by comparison. I hadn't heard anything about it before, so it's still interesting, even though I suspect that BI's cherry-picked interviews wouldn't bear up to statistical analysis. Color me skeptical that Trump will lose the truckers.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by gilraen » Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:36 am

Kraken wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:05 pm
Color me skeptical that Trump will lose the truckers.
Maybe, but quite a few of them won't be truckers by the time the election rolls around.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni » Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:48 am

gilraen wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:36 am
Kraken wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:05 pm
Color me skeptical that Trump will lose the truckers.
Maybe, but quite a few of them won't be truckers by the time the election rolls around.
No, they will have been put out of work by illegal immigrants and socialist Democrats. To hear them tell it, anyway.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:00 pm

FT
Shorter-dated Treasury yields once again eclipsed those for longer-dated notes on Thursday, signalling fears among bond market investors that the Federal Reserve will fail to cut its benchmark rate fast enough to shield the US economy from slowing global growth and an escalating trade dispute with China.

For the third time this month, the yield on two-year US Treasury bills jumped above that of the benchmark 10-year note. Another portion of the yield curve — reflecting the difference between the yields on three-month and 10-year Treasury securities — slipped deeper into negative territory, settling just shy of 40 basis points.

The inversion of the yield curve — which has occurred before every US recession of the past 50 years — came as Fed officials convened in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for their annual meeting, to be capped off with a speech by Jay Powell, Fed chairman.

Less-than-dovish commentary from Esther George, the Kansas City Fed president, and Patrick Harker, the Philadelphia Fed president, fuelled concerns that the central bank was unlikely to meet market expectations and slash interest rates roughly 100bp by the end of 2020, as futures prices currently indicate.

In television interviews, both Ms George and Mr Harker said they saw little reason for additional interest rate cuts beyond the Fed’s quarter-point reduction in July.

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