Jeff V wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:43 pm
That's going to shake out as well over time. While there is such a thing as illegal booze, it's not a significant dent in the overall booze market. Same will be with weed. The supply is not endless, and black market supply will be taxed as more and more growers go legit - higher prices will trickle down to the growers providing incentive and the lack of supply will cause black market weed to become more expensive as a result. With lower returns but the same high risk, I expect we'll see some surge in other illicit drugs such as coke or smack as black market supply chains change to products where the reward is more commensurate to the risk.
There's a lot to pull apart here.
There is such a thing as perpetual harvest grows. Weed supply can be pretty close to endless if enough people do it. Look at Oregon's massive surplus they have right now. Last summer it was a million pounds and that was before this fall's harvest of outdoor bud.
Black market growers aren't going to go "legit". "Legit" means big money invested in big expensive grows with big expensive seed-to-sale tracking systems and big expensive utility costs. Nobody "black market" is going to deal with that nonsense. "Business men" will be the ones with the capital and clear criminal records to deal with that nonsense.
Your last statement is pure Drug War hysteria talking. I don't buy weed on the black market but if I did I wouldn't be buying from someone who also sold coke and smack. They are completely different customer bases. These supply chains aren't that malleable between these substances. Coke and smack come from foreign countries. Weed comes from here. Nobody who doesn't have to is smoking weed from foreign countries anymore, it's too bulky to import and the quality suffers so there is less and less coming over the borders.
Jeff V wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:22 am
if you're growing your own, do you need to start with seed (and do they come in Burpee packs?) or are the little weedlings sold in greenhouses or weed stores?
They're very easy to grow from seed. IDK where one obtains seeds legally; one of my MI friends bought hers online. She wasn't worried about legality because MI is a look-the-other-way state. About once every other year I allow a male plant to mature and pollinate a few females to create a new seed crop.
Expert growers clone females and root the clippings.
MI has several seed companies that are pretty much above ground and have no problem shipping in-state. There's also a well known British site that uses very inventive methods to hide seeds in world wide shipments.
There are also at least two long running store front clone operations in Ann Arbor. You take a look at the web site on Friday, choose your genetics, then show up Saturday morning and leave with seedlings ready to plant. Everything is sold out by noon.
Jeff V wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:22 am
if you're growing your own, do you need to start with seed (and do they come in Burpee packs?) or are the little weedlings sold in greenhouses or weed stores?
They're very easy to grow from seed. IDK where one obtains seeds legally; one of my MI friends bought hers online. She wasn't worried about legality because MI is a look-the-other-way state. About once every other year I allow a male plant to mature and pollinate a few females to create a new seed crop.
Expert growers clone females and root the clippings.
MI has several seed companies that are pretty much above ground and have no problem shipping in-state. There's also a well known British site that uses very inventive methods to hide seeds in world wide shipments.
There are also at least two long running store front clone operations in Ann Arbor. You take a look at the web site on Friday, choose your genetics, then show up Saturday morning and leave with seedlings ready to plant. Everything is sold out by noon.
My radio interviewed a local guy who's started a plant-tending business in people's homes. You pay an upfront deposit on one or more "grow closets" -- portable units of his own design -- and then an ongoing subscription to have him come in twice a week to tend the plants and process your harvest. It's not all that different from an office hiring a plant service, except that instead of a ficus you get a nice supply of homegrown bud for substantially below market rates.
This fellow had been a golf course groundskeeper before his life was upended by a family illness. When that ended after some months, he didn't want to go back to the golf course but still liked working with plants, and MA has this huge new potential market -- every adult can have 6 plants, up to 12 per household -- so he had a brainstorm. A service like that had never occurred to regulators, who took an interest in his business without taking a position on it.
Z-Corn wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:15 pm
MI has several seed companies that are pretty much above ground and have no problem shipping in-state. There's also a well known British site that uses very inventive methods to hide seeds in world wide shipments.
There are also at least two long running store front clone operations in Ann Arbor. You take a look at the web site on Friday, choose your genetics, then show up Saturday morning and leave with seedlings ready to plant. Everything is sold out by noon.
That's another question - is there any interstate commerce in weed among partaking states? I'm not too interested in a company that needs to use inventive methods, too dodgy for what I want the plant for. I also don't know what the market will look like here, whether seeds or weedlings can be had at weed stores. I don't particularly wish to wait in long lines to find out, but my sleepy 'burb already declared itself weed-friendly. I suggested in a community FB group that the town go all in and convert the thousands of acres of feed corn fields in the area into weed fields but AFAIK, they haven't he foresight to go that far -- too bad, it might lower our ridiculously high property tax.
Jeff V wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:17 pm
That's another question - is there any interstate commerce in weed among partaking states? I'm not too interested in a company that needs to use inventive methods, too dodgy for what I want the plant for. I also don't know what the market will look like here, whether seeds or weedlings can be had at weed stores. I don't particularly wish to wait in long lines to find out, but my sleepy 'burb already declared itself weed-friendly. I suggested in a community FB group that the town go all in and convert the thousands of acres of feed corn fields in the area into weed fields but AFAIK, they haven't he foresight to go that far -- too bad, it might lower our ridiculously high property tax.
Interstate commerce is illegal federally. You will see national brands of products but to comply they must be produced in state.
Most of the bigger dispensaries advertise on weedmaps or leafly. Look at one of those places for an idea of what it may look like in IL in a year or so.
As far as your town going in on cultivation, not a bad idea! The hot crop now is hemp flowers, EVERYBODY wants CBD now. It is also legal to ship across state lines. Pretty cheap too.
morlac wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:15 am
They just wave the naughty finger at you and supposedly take it and destroy it.
I'd be willing to bet that your cops are sooooo high right now.
Technically they are supposed to confiscate and destroy it but there is no paper trail per say so... From what I have heard and seen (a video) they usually just give it back. I give it 2 years before Georgia is at least full medical use.
Jeff V wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:43 pm
That's going to shake out as well over time. While there is such a thing as illegal booze, it's not a significant dent in the overall booze market. Same will be with weed. The supply is not endless, and black market supply will be taxed as more and more growers go legit - higher prices will trickle down to the growers providing incentive and the lack of supply will cause black market weed to become more expensive as a result. With lower returns but the same high risk, I expect we'll see some surge in other illicit drugs such as coke or smack as black market supply chains change to products where the reward is more commensurate to the risk.
There's a lot to pull apart here.
There is such a thing as perpetual harvest grows. Weed supply can be pretty close to endless if enough people do it. Look at Oregon's massive surplus they have right now. Last summer it was a million pounds and that was before this fall's harvest of outdoor bud.
Black market growers aren't going to go "legit". "Legit" means big money invested in big expensive grows with big expensive seed-to-sale tracking systems and big expensive utility costs. Nobody "black market" is going to deal with that nonsense. "Business men" will be the ones with the capital and clear criminal records to deal with that nonsense.
Your last statement is pure Drug War hysteria talking. I don't buy weed on the black market but if I did I wouldn't be buying from someone who also sold coke and smack. They are completely different customer bases. These supply chains aren't that malleable between these substances. Coke and smack come from foreign countries. Weed comes from here. Nobody who doesn't have to is smoking weed from foreign countries anymore, it's too bulky to import and the quality suffers so there is less and less coming over the borders.
Thank you for sparing me a response to that Reefer Madness like nonsense. If legal stuff is going to cost $400 the black market will be alive and well. Hell it rarely is even be shipped across the country anymore, most of the black market stuff is all local, small batch now a days. Which has drive price down considerably.
morlac wrote: ↑Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:17 am
Thank you for sparing me a response to that Reefer Madness like nonsense. If legal stuff is going to cost $400 the black market will be alive and well. Hell it rarely is even be shipped across the country anymore, most of the black market stuff is all local, small batch now a days. Which has drive price down considerably.
How robust is the cigarette black market these days? Manufacturing a pack of cigarettes costs a trivial amount compared to the final sales price largely do to massive taxes. I would think most people would just find the extra cost an inconvenience, but nothing something worth getting involved with criminal elements to avoid.
BTW, Illinois is going to expunge any weed convictions for possession of less that 500g. This will likely end any police action aimed at small time dealers at the bottom of the supply chain, but would theoretically allow them to devote more resources targeting larger suppliers.
morlac wrote: ↑Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:17 am
Thank you for sparing me a response to that Reefer Madness like nonsense. If legal stuff is going to cost $400 the black market will be alive and well. Hell it rarely is even be shipped across the country anymore, most of the black market stuff is all local, small batch now a days. Which has drive price down considerably.
How robust is the cigarette black market these days? Manufacturing a pack of cigarettes costs a trivial amount compared to the final sales price largely do to massive taxes. I would think most people would just find the extra cost an inconvenience, but nothing something worth getting involved with criminal elements to avoid.
BTW, Illinois is going to expunge any weed convictions for possession of less that 500g. This will likely end any police action aimed at small time dealers at the bottom of the supply chain, but would theoretically allow them to devote more resources targeting larger suppliers.
Uggh, terrible comparison.
When have ciggs ever been illegal? You can't compare the two as weed has been illegal for decades and because of this has had decades to foster, develop and support a huge and lucrative black market. It was done so out of necessity and demand. Necessity because there is no legal alternative. It is much harder to jump start a black market over a few $ in taxes. Much less incentive thus making comparing them pointless. Now however, you have a thriving black market and a new developing legal market. Once the new legal market get closer in price to the already existing and thriving black market the scales will tip. There is little incentive to use legal means when the price is double and the black market is easy to access, cheap and relatively risk free.
Jeff V wrote: ↑Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:05 pm
Booze had a big black market once upon a time. That market hasn't thrived since the end of prohibition.
I've lost track of who's arguing what with whom. That happens sometimes in stoner threads.
I think we can all agree that a legal market wins if it's cheaper and more convenient, and/or offers a superior product.
I think it wins ultimately because people want legal weed and will accept that in return, they will pay sin taxes just like on tobacco and booze. The black market is no different than any other economic system - it has overhead in place that must ultimately be covered by revenue, and losing a portion of their customer base will force price increases until that industry resizes itself, at which point it may no longer be a profitable product.
The notion that the legal market will fail because of high taxes as far as I know hasn't born out in states that have been legal until now. What I haven't heard are any reports speaking to the effect legalized weed has had on black market weed sales in legalized areas, so at this point it would be speculation and conjecture of how this will all play out.
morlac wrote: ↑Wed Dec 11, 2019 10:17 am
Thank you for sparing me a response to that Reefer Madness like nonsense. If legal stuff is going to cost $400 the black market will be alive and well. Hell it rarely is even be shipped across the country anymore, most of the black market stuff is all local, small batch now a days. Which has drive price down considerably.
How robust is the cigarette black market these days? Manufacturing a pack of cigarettes costs a trivial amount compared to the final sales price largely do to massive taxes. I would think most people would just find the extra cost an inconvenience, but nothing something worth getting involved with criminal elements to avoid.
BTW, Illinois is going to expunge any weed convictions for possession of less that 500g. This will likely end any police action aimed at small time dealers at the bottom of the supply chain, but would theoretically allow them to devote more resources targeting larger suppliers.
Uggh, terrible comparison.
When have ciggs ever been illegal? You can't compare the two as weed has been illegal for decades and because of this has had decades to foster, develop and support a huge and lucrative black market. It was done so out of necessity and demand. Necessity because there is no legal alternative. It is much harder to jump start a black market over a few $ in taxes. Much less incentive thus making comparing them pointless. Now however, you have a thriving black market and a new developing legal market. Once the new legal market get closer in price to the already existing and thriving black market the scales will tip. There is little incentive to use legal means when the price is double and the black market is easy to access, cheap and relatively risk free.
Yes. Look at California. Their illegal market is higher than their legal one. On the one hand you have a largely free market that has developed over decades. On the other you have an artificial market with licensing, taxes at every level (including federal, ironically) and VC wanting a cut. Which is going to thrive?
Also, there is a huge tobacco tax avoidance market. People will routinely cross states borders for cheaper cartons. Hell, I don't smoke and I'll come back with a few cartons for friends. Hypothetically.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
In a related story, I was subjected to a drug test for the *checks calendar* 3rd time in 2019. I'm thinking that's about 15 or 16 in the 13 years I've worked at this job.
Not really relevant to this story at all actually, I just wanted to whine. The bummer of it is that should we ever get around to legalization here in Jesusland I'll still be taking these tests. Life is so unfair.
OR
cry in a corner that the world has come to a point where you have to pay for imaginary shit.
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:22 pm
I know people who buy online and get home delivery. One lives in $2m median home block directly across from an elementary school which is supposed to be a no crime zone. No one cares. I don't expect anyone's buying habits to suddenly go legit if pot can be had cheaper on the black market. It will become a War on Tax Avoidance to replace the War on Drugs.
That's going to shake out as well over time. While there is such a thing as illegal booze, it's not a significant dent in the overall booze market. Same will be with weed. The supply is not endless, and black market supply will be taxed as more and more growers go legit - higher prices will trickle down to the growers providing incentive and the lack of supply will cause black market weed to become more expensive as a result. With lower returns but the same high risk, I expect we'll see some surge in other illicit drugs such as coke or smack as black market supply chains change to products where the reward is more commensurate to the risk.
Beat cops and narcotics officers will be on the lookout for individuals looking to rob dispensary patrons braving long lines to get their first taste of legal pot. Those customers make “attractive street robbery targets” because they’ll likely be carrying large amounts of weed and money near the largely cash-only businesses, Guglielmi said.
...
In the upcoming weeks and months, Guglielmi said, enforcement will shift to street-level dealers and gangs aiming to undercut the hefty dispensary prices.
An eighth of an ounce of medical marijuana, subject to a 1% state pharmaceutical tax, typically costs around $60 at Illinois dispensaries. That price will be substantially higher for recreational users, who will soon face state taxes between 10% and 25% for pot products.
Yay! Decriminalization for white venture capitalists! Police protection for their businesses!
The progressive rope-a-dope is a success.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
The novelty of paying double will wear off. Besides, they're out because of lack of supply, not unexpected damand. Anyone wanting dope will just go back to their dealer. Or find one of they didn't already have one. The only thing that changes is unabashed smoking in public.
The fact that the entire city smells like my college dorm is evidence enough that plenty of people made getting hooked up despite the shortage of "legal" product.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:07 am
The novelty of paying double will wear off. Besides, they're out because of lack of supply, not unexpected damand.
What kind of business plan only has logistics planned out for 5 days of operation?
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2020 11:07 am
The novelty of paying double will wear off. Besides, they're out because of lack of supply, not unexpected damand.
What kind of business plan only has logistics planned out for 5 days of operation?
One burdened by unprepared state, county, and city licensing, regulation, taxes, and kickbacks. This was not unexpected.
For months, just about everyone in the cannabis industry warned that supplies would most likely dwindle to zero after recreational marijuana launched on Jan. 1. As expected, some dispensaries closed completely this week, while others imposed purchase limits, or sold only to medical patients (State law mandates that medical cannabis users get first priority).
But never fear...
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
The same shortages occur everywhere it goes legal. MI went legal December 1st and it's still a multi-hour wait in line to even get in the door of a dispensary. And then you are allowed to buy limited quantities of over priced bud.
Gov. Phil Scott (R) on Wednesday announced he’ll allow a marijuana sales legalization bill passed by the legislature to take effect. Vermont previously legalized marijuana possession and growing. The latest bill allows and builds a commercialized, tax-and-regulate system, similar to other legalization states’.
The legislation is set to take effect this month, but state regulators will have until October 2022 to start issuing licenses for retailers — meaning legal sales could still be as much as two years away.
Congress, along party lines(thanks Democrats), have passed a bill removing marijuana from the scheduled drugs list. Of course the Senate is refusing to take up the bill. Fucking turdy old timer assholes.
Note that 5 Republicans joined to support it and 6 Democrats jumped ships to oppose it.
Last edited by Daehawk on Fri Dec 04, 2020 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
Im a bilingual. A bilingual illiterate. I can't read in two languages.
dbt1949 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 04, 2020 6:37 pm
Mitch Mcconnell is more responsible for this country being screwed up than Trump and his clan.
old Mitch sits there making more money than he ever deserved and wont pass any help to regular citizens. He just wants to help companies that line his pockets. The same places normal folks cant buy anything from because they dont have any money!
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I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
Im a bilingual. A bilingual illiterate. I can't read in two languages.
I could swear Ive heard both that somewhere today.
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I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
Im a bilingual. A bilingual illiterate. I can't read in two languages.
New Jersey legalized weed. Thats big news for the east coast.
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I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
Im a bilingual. A bilingual illiterate. I can't read in two languages.
Legal in Virginia now. Thats almost close enough to drive to for some.
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I am Dyslexic of Borg, prepare to have your ass laminated.
I guess Ray Butts has ate his last pancake. http://steamcommunity.com/id/daehawk
"Has high IQ. Refuses to apply it"
Im a bilingual. A bilingual illiterate. I can't read in two languages.
Under the legislation as passed, possession of up to an ounce (28.3 grams) of marijuana will become legal beginning Jan. 1, 2024. At the same time, sales will begin and regulations will go into effect to control the marijuana marketplace in Virginia.
...
Lawmakers last year decriminalized marijuana, making simple possession a civil penalty that can be punished by a fine of no more than $25.
Alefroth wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 6:14 pm
I haven't been paying close attention. Have most of the states that have legalized it also created a production and retail framework too?
Yes. The approach varies from state to state. Some take a centralized approach, some are more freewheeling. In MA, we still have a Puritan hangover -- the rules are so restrictive that there's very little competition, prices are high, and the black market has barely taken a dent. I only buy commercial weed twice a year because it's inconvenient and expensive; however, we can legally grow up to 12 plants, which is plenty to keep me in bottomless homegrown.