Dogstar wrote: ↑
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:38 am
It's problematic, but at this point, I'm not sure what China is supposed to do. It's been widely theorized that they're under-reporting cases to begin with (especially as there isn't an accurate count of people in villages or trapped in their apartment buildings), that they're running out of test kits to test potentials, and that the test kits themselves may not be completely accurate. We screwed up testing here and we have a tiny percentage of potentials compared to China. As a health care professional, what do you think they should do?
Just to clarify, I'm not a health care professional but I have conducted outbreak investigations. In fairness, they were orders of magnitude smaller and didn't involve emerging infections.
So with that, I'm not sure what the official protocol is, particularly knowing that the test is allegedly problematic. My gut inclination would be to list them as probable, not confirmed just based on my smaller scale protocols. That being said, when you list someone as probable, the idea then is to follow up and confirm, assuming they're available for additional testing. The scope and magnitude of this outbreak however, seems like adding people into that probable category means very few will actually get follow up as you're now focused on the confirmed cases. Assuming we all get through this (we will), I'm guessing all kinds or protocols and response manuals are going to be re-examined. Truly, this is beyond anything we've ever seen in the modern age.
If you want excellent info, the WHO is providing updates and this
is their latest (2/12/20). They're also clear that they're using the WHO case definition so their numbers aren't going to match China.
Either way, I'm still confident (as I said when this started) that China is misrepresenting the size and scope of the outbreak. If this is a way for them to "sneak" numbers into the totals, then that's not good either. Some have suggested the numbers are going to go even higher over the next few days as China "adjusts the case definitions".
What I'm finding really interesting is what's happening on the major cruise ships that have been quarantined. Something on them is different as the number of cases and how quickly it's spreading to passengers and crew is rather alarming. Why does it appear to be more severe on a boat? Is there something about these ships we're not accounting for? During the SARS outbreak there was spread by the toilets between apartments in a giant complex. Somehow the wastewater was circulating in such a way that it was releasing clouds of viral particles into apartments where people had self-quarantined for protection.