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[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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malchior
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by malchior »

Kurth wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:56 pm
malchior wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:02 pm
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:54 pm
malchior wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:41 pm
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 pm
Daehawk wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:12 pm
That boy believes China? What a shitty laureate.
Yeah, I'm sure your forecast of Chinese coronavirus fatalities was much more accurate than that of a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist "boy." :icon-rolleyes:
Biophysicist. Not a Medical Doctor. Not an epidemiologist. Not an expert in that field at all. Why listen to the experts when we can find an expert in something else that says what we want to believe and lean on those credentials. That is solid science.
So what? You're free to believe whatever you like. But Levitt's forecast of Chinese deaths from COVID-19 was pretty damn accurate, so one can but hope his prediction of slowed growth in other nations also holds up.
Hope away. It's pretty likely he just got lucky or the data was inaccurate. I'd love to see his model account for South Korea vs. Italy vs. France vs. the US which all used totally different controls.
Hope . . . malchior eats hope for breakfast! :)
What's amusing is that at work I'm seen as too optimistic in my projections about how I communicate business risks. Anyway, I'd revise that sentence to say I eat false hope! :)

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by stessier »

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

stessier wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:55 am
gameoverman wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:21 pm
The NFL had games even when they couldn't play with 'real' players or 'real' officials so I don't think they'll cancel the season. They'll want to leave the playoffs and Super Bowl schedule as is, so my bet is the season starts later than previously planned, possibly with no preseason or a drastically shortened one.
Didn't want to clutter up the NFL thread.

I agree that is what they want. We all want that. I don't think that is what they are going to get...
Training camps and practices could be shortened, and preseason games sacrificed to clear time for them. The actual season itself could be shortened. They could start everything in September and still have the playoffs and SB on their usual dates. If it's a question of show up and play or don't get paid, which do you think players would choose? I don't think we'll have herd immunity for quite a while. What might happen is people might adjust to the virus being around. When you get right down to it, what's the ONE real reason people are scared right now? The hospitals being overwhelmed with patients. If by summer that's no longer an issue there will be more of a willingness to get things back to normal. Even now there are people who are willing to gather for things they enjoy, like spring break. There might come a time when no one bats an eye at people testing positive for the virus, and that time might come sooner than we think. I didn't feel this way about it before but I've thought a lot about it and changed my thinking on how long people will be willing to suspend normal life.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Kurth wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:56 pm
Hope . . . malchior eats hope for breakfast! :)
If memory serves, he resides in New Jersey. So it goes without saying that he's a misery guts. I probably would be too if I lived in such a hell-mouth.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kurth »

Unagi wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:10 am
hitbyambulance wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:32 pm
Gov. (and former presidential candidate) Inslee just formalized the 'stay home' order for WA state
That took wayyyy too long
Oregon is on lockdown, too.

That said, I don’t see a huge impact here over what we were already supposed to be doing with extreme social distancing. I suppose maybe the threat of criminal penalties will have an impact on compliance, but other than that, not much is different as far as I can see.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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SC schools closed through May 1.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Doing a breaking news briefing on my local news. 15 in Hamilton county now and they are 'keeping their eye on' 77 others.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by malchior »

Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:42 pm
Kurth wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:56 pm
Hope . . . malchior eats hope for breakfast! :)
If memory serves, he resides in New Jersey. So it goes without saying that he's a misery guts. I probably would be too if I lived in such a hell-mouth.
This is correct. My hell mouth is actually pretty nice even though many local restaurants are collapsing. Also I've got a dune buggy roaming my neighborhood all of a sudden. I think the kid is just practicing for runs to ammo town.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kraken »

MIT officially canceled commencement, which was expected but is a pretty huge disappointment for the graduating class. Although they'll eventually replace it with some kind of ceremony(s), that won't help the many foreign students who are back home already.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

This is going to be a lost-year for so many milestone events. Still part of the ways this is rippling out into society.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by $iljanus »

malchior wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:59 pm
Also I've got a dune buggy roaming my neighborhood all of a sudden. I think the kid is just practicing for runs to ammo town.
Well not to alarm you but if it looks like this I'd be a little concerned...Or maybe that's just a typical day in NJ.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by malchior »

Up to today I have only seen dune buggies in California. This one is ripping around the streets. I don't know if he is practicing his marauding or what but it is *damn* loud. The image above is what I was thinking about. I said to my wife, if only he had two friends standing on the back waving grenade spears and screaming...

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Anonymous Bosch »

Dunno if this is behind a paywall, as I use the Bypass Paywalls extension for Firefox.

The West Is Misinterpreting Wuhan’s Coronavirus Progress—and Drawing the Wrong Lessons
WSJ.com wrote:BEIJING—U. S. and European leaders are looking at China’s progress in curbing the coronavirus pandemic to guide them on how to beat the virus within their own borders.

They may be drawing the wrong lessons, doctors and health experts say.

The cordon sanitaire that began around Wuhan and two nearby cities on Jan. 23 helped slow the virus’s transmission to other parts of China, but didn’t really stop it in Wuhan itself, these experts say. Instead, the virus kept spreading among family members in homes, in large part because hospitals were too overwhelmed to handle all the patients, according to doctors and patients there.

What really turned the tide in Wuhan was a shift after Feb. 2 to a more aggressive and systematic quarantine regime whereby suspected or mild cases—and even healthy close contacts of confirmed cases—were sent to makeshift hospitals and temporary quarantine centers.

The tactics required turning hundreds of hotels, schools and other places into quarantine centers, as well as building two new hospitals and creating 14 temporary ones in public buildings. It also underscored the importance of coronavirus testing capacity, which local authorities say was expanded from 200 tests a day in late January to 7,000 daily by mid-February.

The steps went beyond what’s envisioned in many hard-hit Western cities. As a result, many doctors and experts say the recent lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe may slow the rise in new infections—if properly enforced—but still won’t be enough to stop it or prevent many hospitals from being overwhelmed, as they were initially in Wuhan.

“A lot of the lessons have been lost,” said Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at the University of Edinburgh. “A lockdown helps buy time: The only way it will work is if you actually backtrack and start figuring out who has the virus.”

The U.S., Britain and some European countries will ultimately, like Wuhan, have to establish multiple makeshift hospitals and quarantine centers to isolate more cases if they are to bring the virus under control, she said.

“Absent of divine intervention, I don’t think there’s any other way out of it,” she said. “We’re heading in that direction: We’re just doing it too slow.”

In New York City, federal authorities plan to set up mobile hospitals, with a total capacity of 1,000 beds, at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in Manhattan. New York has also been looking into converting entire hotels into hospitals, but it is unclear how many beds will be made available.

Zhang Jinnong, head of the emergency department at Wuhan’s Xiehe Hospital, said the most important thing was to separate the infected from the healthy, and recommended hotels as quarantine centers where people could be isolated in separate rooms.

“You just need to turn off the central air conditioning,” he said.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Thanks for the bypass link. Will have to check it out. NYT is my biggest annoyance. But usually I just find another free site with all the same info.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Story from a doctor that survived Ebola

Doctor who survived Ebola details a harrowing day in the ER. Coronavirus scares him.
He writes that he is told about a patient who is receiving the maximum amount of oxygen but is still breathing fast.

He describes having "a long and honest discussion" with the patient and her family -- who are on the phone -- that she needs to go on life support before things get worse.

"You're notified of another really sick patient coming in. You rush over. They're also extremely sick, vomiting. They need to be put on life support as well. You bring them back. Two patients, in rooms right next to each other, both getting a breathing tube," he wrote. "It's not even 10 a.m. yet."
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Formix wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:48 pm
Awesome. That's a good read, thanks Smoove. From reading that, it seems (and maybe I'm misunderstanding) that there is no good data to say that there is any mutation so far of a sort that would invalidate any herd immunity, but with mutation, you just never know, but for know it's looking promising.
If you want a much more detailed examination of virus mutations and why vaccination isn't a concern (right now), this guy is the real deal:



A thread on #SARSCoV2 mutations and what they might mean for the #COVID19 vaccination and immunity, in which I predict it will take the virus a few years to mutate enough to significantly hinder a vaccine. 1/12

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by malchior »

That's interesting but doesn't that lead to a scenario post-vaccine where every few years we have explosive outbreaks?

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Correct - there's nothing stopping this from happening again in 3,5,7 or some other random set of years from now and we have the same problem all over again. I'd like to think whatever vaccine we develop will minimize the severity of a future outbreak, but even that remains to be seen. Until we can get a handle on how this new virus is just sorta hanging out with us on planet Earth from here on out, I think the best we can do is focus on the next ~12 weeks and hope a longer-term strategy emerges. Thankfully the big brains don't seem to think vaccine development will be an issue and I certainly hope that analysis holds true.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Jeff V »

Smoove_B wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:28 pm
Correct - there's nothing stopping this from happening again in 3,5,7 or some other random set of years from now and we have the same problem all over again. I'd like to think whatever vaccine we develop will minimize the severity of a future outbreak, but even that remains to be seen. Until we can get a handle on how this new virus is just sorta hanging out with us on planet Earth from here on out, I think the best we can do is focus on the next ~12 weeks and hope a longer-term strategy emerges. Thankfully the big brains don't seem to think vaccine development will be an issue and I certainly hope that analysis holds true.
But things like SARS haven''t become annual events. Wouldn't this ostensibly need to diversify like the flu to become an annual threat? (assuming effective vaccine that is).

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

The speed and ease that this new virus is ripping through human beings across the globe suggests it's not going anywhere - meaning, it will be constantly circulating back and forth between humans. This article from last month covers that idea a bit and I haven't seen a suggestion otherwise. I also think the focus shifted rather quickly from "what would endemic COVID-19 look like?" to "Oh my god, we're are in trouble right now", so the long term impact / trajectory of this slid of the map (and rightfully so).
Odds: Pretty good. What we may be seeing “is the emergence of a new coronavirus … that could very well become another seasonal pathogen that causes pneumonia,” said infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota. It would be “more than a cold” and less than SARS: “The only other pathogen I can compare it to is seasonal influenza.”
If anything, I think people are (collectively) moving away from the idea that it will be seasonal, but it's also likely too early to tell.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by raydude »

malchior wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:02 pm
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:54 pm
malchior wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:41 pm
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 pm
Daehawk wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:12 pm
That boy believes China? What a shitty laureate.
Yeah, I'm sure your forecast of Chinese coronavirus fatalities was much more accurate than that of a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist "boy." :icon-rolleyes:
Biophysicist. Not a Medical Doctor. Not an epidemiologist. Not an expert in that field at all. Why listen to the experts when we can find an expert in something else that says what we want to believe and lean on those credentials. That is solid science.
So what? You're free to believe whatever you like. But Levitt's forecast of Chinese deaths from COVID-19 was pretty damn accurate, so one can but hope his prediction of slowed growth in other nations also holds up.
Hope away. It's pretty likely he just got lucky or the data was inaccurate. I'd love to see his model account for South Korea vs. Italy vs. France vs. the US which all used totally different controls.
Anybody seen anything more recent on Michael Levitt? I'm really curious about his forecast numbers for the US. All the recent articles just point to how accurate he was on China - whose numbers we are on track to beating.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by raydude »

Smoove_B wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:32 pm
As you can imagine, I've been doing quite a bit of reading in the last few weeks. I have seen neither one of those two names coming up in my circles, so I'll take a look. What I have noticed is that professional epidemiologists (of which I am not) are starting to get genuinely angry at all the armchair epidemiology happening and the fact that people in related or public-health adjacent fields (or sometimes with just a Dr. in front of their name) are giving interviews or articles to major news organizations about epidemiological principles as they relate to outbreaks and population-level disease control.

EDIT: One of the people I do follow (Dr. Ali Khan) had this to say about the article earlier today on social media:
It is easy to get in an echo chamber of perspective that is self-reinforcing. Plus I am a fan of Fringe. Here is a view from a Nobel Laureate without comment. Although I look forward to reading yours.
I'm actually waiting for Dr. Khan to write something as he's been rather vocal in his general frustration as to how this is being reported on
I've just started following Dr. Ali Khan on twitter. He posted this on March 24. Is it me or are we trending towards 10k deaths in 14 days?
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by dbt1949 »

Prince Charles has tested positive. So he is self isolating.
Just him and 200 staff.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by LawBeefaroni »

raydude wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:03 am
Smoove_B wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:32 pm
As you can imagine, I've been doing quite a bit of reading in the last few weeks. I have seen neither one of those two names coming up in my circles, so I'll take a look. What I have noticed is that professional epidemiologists (of which I am not) are starting to get genuinely angry at all the armchair epidemiology happening and the fact that people in related or public-health adjacent fields (or sometimes with just a Dr. in front of their name) are giving interviews or articles to major news organizations about epidemiological principles as they relate to outbreaks and population-level disease control.

EDIT: One of the people I do follow (Dr. Ali Khan) had this to say about the article earlier today on social media:
It is easy to get in an echo chamber of perspective that is self-reinforcing. Plus I am a fan of Fringe. Here is a view from a Nobel Laureate without comment. Although I look forward to reading yours.
I'm actually waiting for Dr. Khan to write something as he's been rather vocal in his general frustration as to how this is being reported on
I've just started following Dr. Ali Khan on twitter. He posted this on March 24. Is it me or are we trending towards 10k deaths in 14 days?
Image
It's difficult to project the trend. If we start to flatten out like China then no. Problem is we don't have that nationwide lockdown indicator on our trendline. So just wait and see I guess.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

dbt1949 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:22 am
Prince Charles has tested positive. So he is self isolating.
Just him and 200 staff.
Just think, he might have been infected for awhile now. He might have been in close proximity to his mom during that time. I hope William is ready.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

So where'd he get it?
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kasey Chang »

San Francisco county (which is basically the city) is showing 178 cases, yikes. Santa Clara is ahead because it got to a senior center there, but there are a LOT of seniors in San Francisco.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kasey Chang »

The other price Taiwan is paying to control COVID-19... If your tracker runs out of battery, cops knock on your door to see if you've broken quantine.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

Kasey Chang wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:47 pm
San Francisco county (which is basically the city) is showing 178 cases, yikes. Santa Clara is ahead because it got to a senior center there, but there are a LOT of seniors in San Francisco.
Last numbers I saw for Los Angeles county is 662 confirmed cases, 11 dead, and we're just getting started.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by noxiousdog »

So here's positive(?) news:

48% of Diamond Princess passengers were asymptomatic.

I'm thinking this is way, way widespread than people think. If you take the above into account, that means we don't have 61,000 cases, it means we have at least 120,000 as asymptomatic people are not being tested in most locations. But it also means it's half as dangerous.

Another issue that makes me think it's maybe even 10 times that number is there's an awful lot of celebrities infected for only .0007% of the world being infected.

The fact that we don't have tests everywhere is criminal. Until we have good tracking data nearly everything we are doing is worthless.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

noxiousdog wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:25 pm
The fact that we don't have tests everywhere is criminal. Until we have good tracking data nearly everything we are doing is worthless.
Absolutely, yes. I saw a report last night or this morning (it's blurring for me) that suggested Italy's first case was in January - they're just figuring that out now by going through medical histories. I absolutely believe it's far more widespread in the US than we realize and I'm genuinely hoping there are more immune people around than we thought. However, without an ability to easily and quickly test people, the only thing we can do is continue to shelter in place and avoid contact.

EDIT: And as a counterpoint to myself, why widespread testing isnt' happening anytime soon.

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kasey Chang »

Apparently someone in my online class came down with it last weekend and was out 3 days. He's recovering, and he's NOT tested because they said he seems to be past the worst point. (WTF?!) and they need to save the test for someone who really needs it.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by dbt1949 »

Chances are if I caught it I wouldn't do anything about it either. Just tough it thru or die.
They can't do anything about it now except try to ease the symptoms and make you comfortable.
My wife would catch it too and we'd do the same thing for her except stop her care nurse from coming over.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by em2nought »

dbt1949 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:23 pm
Chances are if I caught it I wouldn't do anything about it either. Just tough it thru or die.
They can't do anything about it now except try to ease the symptoms and make you comfortable.
My wife would catch it too and we'd do the same thing for her except stop her care nurse from coming over.
Tough if thru or die was the approach I was thinking of too for a variety of reasons. :mrgreen:
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Jeff V
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Jeff V »

dbt1949 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:23 pm
Chances are if I caught it I wouldn't do anything about it either. Just tough it thru or die.
They can't do anything about it now except try to ease the symptoms and make you comfortable.
My wife would catch it too and we'd do the same thing for her except stop her care nurse from coming over.
Doesn't social distancing for you continue to be the effective range of a shotgun? You should be fine.

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Daehawk
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Chattanooga's mayor and health people were talking earlier. I was trying to take a nap and missing a bunch of it. What i gather is they are working with a private school in town and think starting tomorrow they can have 65 test a day ran through and hope to up that to 300 a day in the near future. they have a 4 hour test or something they've come up with.

Theres now 26 known. 1 person from the county has died. Another died too but was from somewhere else but in our hospitals so they dont count him here. They also broke down the percentages by ages but I cant remember that at all.

https://www.wrcbtv.com/story/41867206/u ... ount-at-26

Seems a student from here in my town has it. In fact that college is about 4 miles from me.
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Unagi
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Unagi »

Daehawk wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:58 pm

Theres now 26 known. 1 person from the county has died. Another died too but was from somewhere else but in our hospitals so they dont count him here. They also broke down the percentages by ages but I cant remember that at all.
I don't know who your 'they' is, but he is counted as 1 of 2 that's died. While your article articulates that one county resident died , nowhere does it say about that other person that 'they don't count him here'.

As far as I know, deaths and cases are counted by hospital and not just by the person's home town.

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stessier
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by stessier »

Unagi wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:02 pm
Daehawk wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:58 pm

Theres now 26 known. 1 person from the county has died. Another died too but was from somewhere else but in our hospitals so they dont count him here. They also broke down the percentages by ages but I cant remember that at all.
I don't know who your 'they' is, but he is counted as 1 of 2 that's died. While your article articulates that one county resident died , nowhere does it say about that other person that 'they don't count him here'.

As far as I know, deaths and cases are counted by hospital and not just by the person's home town.
Depends on the state. In SC they took two people off the list even though they were in our hospitals because they reside out of state.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by em2nought »

Looks like New York has resorted to the scuba buddy system with two patients sharing one ventilator. Those car manufacturers better get cracking.
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