[Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by hitbyambulance »

Jeff V wrote: Mon Jul 20, 2020 8:59 pm
gameoverman wrote: Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:33 pm I'm kinda surprised at how many people are looking at this month to month.
For me the goalpost has always been an effective vaccine. Now it seems several vaccines will be pushed out without proper vetting. I don't know how many caught it but on the news the other day (maybe MTP) it was suggested that initial vaccines will need frequent booster. I'm glad that was put out there, because a story earlier the week indicated that immunity dissipates over a couple of months and those who had it are susceptible to secondary infection within 2 months from the initial. That suggests that antibodies spawned with a vaccine might not have a very long lifespan.
if you thought the facial coverings 'controversy' was a disaster, wait until you see the vaccine disinformation campaigns... have fun with that
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Jeff V »

Yeah, I'm not expecting full disclosure, but I think good info will be leaked. I don't see ever having confidence until the administration changes though.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

I depend on my own good judgement for this shit. I dont go out unless I have to and if I have to I stay as far as I can from others and wear my mask. I dont diddle daddle and do what I have to and go home. As for vaccines Ill not be in line for the first ones thanks. Ill give it a year or so most likely. If its every 2 months by then I just wont bother most likely. Dont need to feel sickly and sore every so often.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by stessier »

A weird upside? The number of premie births is way, way down.
Spoiler:
This spring, as countries around the world told people to stay home to slow the spread of the coronavirus, doctors in neonatal intensive care units were noticing something strange: Premature births were falling, in some cases drastically.

It started with doctors in Ireland and Denmark. Each team, unaware of the other’s work, crunched the numbers from its own region or country and found that during the lockdowns, premature births — especially the earliest, most dangerous cases — had plummeted. When they shared their findings, they heard similar anecdotal reports from other countries.

They don’t know what caused the drop in premature births, and can only speculate as to the factors in lockdown that might have contributed. But further research might help doctors, scientists and parents-to-be understand the causes of premature birth and ways to prevent it, which have been elusive until now. Their studies are not yet peer reviewed, and have been posted only on preprint servers. In some cases the changes amounted to only a few missing babies per hospital. But they represented significant reductions from the norm, and some experts in premature birth think the research is worthy of additional investigation.

“These results are compelling,” said Dr. Denise Jamieson, an obstetrician at Emory University’s School of Medicine in Atlanta.

About one in 10 U.S. babies is born early. Pregnancy usually lasts about 40 weeks, and any delivery before 37 weeks is considered preterm. The costs to children and their families — financially, emotionally and in long-term health effects — can be great. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, babies born premature, especially before 32 weeks, are at higher risk of vision and hearing problems, cerebral palsy and death.

The best way to avoid these costs would be to prevent early births in the first place, said Dr. Roy Philip, a neonatologist at University Maternity Hospital Limerick in Ireland.

Dr. Philip had been vacationing abroad when his country entered lockdown on March 12, and he noticed something unusual when he returned to work in late March. He asked why there had been no orders while he was gone for the breast milk-based fortifier that doctors feed to the hospital’s tiniest preemies. The hospital’s staff said that there had been no need, because none of these babies had been born all month.

Intrigued, Dr. Philip and his colleagues compared the hospital’s births so far in 2020 with births between January and April in every year since 2001 — more than 30,000 in all. They looked at birth weights, a useful proxy for very premature birth.

“Initially I thought, ‘There is some mistake in the numbers,’” Dr. Philip said.

Over the past two decades, babies under 3.3 pounds, classified as very low birth weight, accounted for about eight out of every thousand live births in the hospital, which serves a region of 473,000 people. In 2020, the rate was about a quarter of that. The very tiniest infants, those under 2.2 pounds and considered extremely low birth weight, usually make up three per thousand births. There should have been at least a few born that spring — but there had been none.

The study period went through the end of April. By the end of June, with the national lockdown easing, Dr. Philip said there had still been very few early preemies born in his hospital. In two decades, he said, he had never seen anything like these numbers.

While the Irish team was digging into its data, researchers in Denmark were doing the same thing, driven by curiosity over a “nearly empty” NICU. Dr. Michael Christiansen of the Statens Serum Institut in Copenhagen and his colleagues used newborn screening data to compare births nationwide during the strictest lockdown period, March 12 to April 14, with births during the same period in the previous five years. The data set included more than 31,000 infants.

The researchers found that during the lockdown, the rate of babies born before 28 weeks had dropped by a startling 90 percent.

Anecdotes from doctors at other hospitals around the world suggest the phenomenon may have been widespread, though not universal.

Dr. Belal Alshaikh, a neonatologist at the University of Calgary in Alberta, said premature births across Calgary dropped by nearly half during the lockdown. The change was across the board, though it seemed more pronounced in the earliest babies, he said.

At Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, Dr. Irwin Reiss, a neonatologist, saw a smaller drop-off in premature births.

At Mercy Hospital for Women outside Melbourne, Australia, there were so few premature babies that administrators asked Dr. Dan Casalaz, the hospital’s director of pediatrics, to figure out what was going on.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Lorini »

They need to do some pretty serious studies on whether or not people will take a vaccine if it comes by the beginning of the year before pouring billions into vaccine research. I won't take a Covid vaccine that's approved by the Trump administration, no way.

I'd much rather them pour these billions into effective early treatment and faster easier home style tests that can be used on a broad basis. Then I'd like them to pay people to quarantine. If people stop spreading the disease, it'll be much easier to finally get past this.

If they actually had an early effective treatment so that this wouldn't be much more serious than getting the flu and people could test themselves and work environments could test before employees came into the workplace, we could go back to nearly normal.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by LordMortis »

Lorini wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:36 am I won't take a Covid vaccine that's approved by the Trump administration, no way.
I won't take a rushed vaccine whose primary approval process is thumbs up and push from the executive office. They burnt that lifetime of trust to the ground. And there is nothing this administration can do to rebuild it. I'm honestly not sure what the guidance is for me yet. I'll somehow be taking my queue from actual experts, though I don't know what that means yet.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Went to town. granted it was only 2 places but one was a grocery store. Saw a total of THREE people besides me in a mask. And they were older than me. I really REALLY wish they'd mandate masks and enforce it. I could get a lot of entertainment value from sitting watching the morons in this town be accosted.

Around here they seem to think its over.

Also saw this in someone's sig on another site.

A mask is not a political statement.
It's an IQ test.
It's a compassion test.
It's a decency test.
It's a social responsibility test.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gameoverman »

hitbyambulance wrote: Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:20 pmif you thought the facial coverings 'controversy' was a disaster, wait until you see the vaccine disinformation campaigns... have fun with that
At least there's an upside to that. Let's assume they come up with an effective and safe vaccine. There will almost certainly be a small supply to start with. Front line workers and possibly the military will get first shot, literally and figuratively. I imagine a portion of the supply will go to the general public. So all the anti-vaxxers and people who just don't trust it will reduce demand at a time when supplies will be low. It's a win actually. If the vaccine is effective then people will see that, and more and more people will accept it around the time the supply starts to increase.

I think that's a better situation than if everyone wanted it. Then we'd be dealing with possible fighting over who controls distribution and who decides who gets to be first in line.

Disinformation can only do so much. If I see that people who have been vaccinated can go back to work and mingle with other people and suffer no ill effects, that's going to carry a lot more weight with me than anything anyone says about the vaccine. I don't anticipate being one of the early ones to get it. I'm going to take a wait and see approach for as long as possible. Partly it's because I don't trust Trump, but partly because I know a lot of people have a lot riding on a vaccine being developed, which means there's too much incentive to push something out that really needs more time to percolate.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Jeff V »

I'm waiting patiently for a vaccine to be developed, but I'm against any shortcuts in the process. Many states are already failing at putting the genie back into the bottle after prematurely declaring victory, and if vaccines prove to not have long-term efficacy it's just going to be increasingly harder to knock it down again.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

I wonder if someone who gets it and has no problems could die or almost die the next time they catch it?
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Jeff V »

Daehawk wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:20 pm I wonder if someone who gets it and has no problems could die or almost die the next time they catch it?
It's already happened, instances have been reported of front-line responders suffering this fate. Other accounts are less likely to make the news, but certainly exist.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Smoove_B »

Daehawk wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 4:20 pm I wonder if someone who gets it and has no problems could die or almost die the next time they catch it?
To add scientific basis for this theory, dengue is potentially worse the the second time around:
The researchers showed that a person's prior immune response to one serotype of dengue virus could influence the interaction with virus subtypes in a subsequent infection. How that interaction plays out could mean the difference between getting a mild fever and going into a fatal circulatory failure from dengue hemorrhagic fever or dengue shock syndrome.
Different type (and family) of viruses, but possible.

Regardless, not something I'd be particularly worried about now. Better to focus on minimizing risk for a first exposure.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Anonymous Bosch »

Jeff V wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:58 pm I'm waiting patiently for a vaccine to be developed, but I'm against any shortcuts in the process. Many states are already failing at putting the genie back into the bottle after prematurely declaring victory, and if vaccines prove to not have long-term efficacy it's just going to be increasingly harder to knock it down again.
A dependable form of treatment could also greatly diminish the threat.

Coronavirus: Protein treatment trial 'a breakthrough'
BBC.com wrote:The preliminary results of a clinical trial suggest a new treatment for Covid-19 reduces the number of patients needing intensive care, according to the UK company that developed it.

The treatment from Southampton-based biotech Synairgen uses a protein called interferon beta which the body produces when it gets a viral infection.

The protein is inhaled directly into the lungs of patients with coronavirus, using a nebuliser, in the hope that it will stimulate an immune response.

The initial findings suggest the treatment cut the odds of a Covid-19 patient in hospital developing severe disease - such as requiring ventilation - by 79%.

Patients were two to three times more likely to recover to the point where everyday activities were not compromised by their illness, Synairgen claims.

It said the trial also indicated "very significant" reductions in breathlessness among patients who received the treatment.

In addition, the average time patients spent in hospital is said to have been reduced by a third, for those receiving the new drug - down from an average of nine days to six days.

The double-blind trial involved 101 volunteers who had been admitted for treatment at nine UK hospitals for Covid-19 infections.

Half of the participants were given the drug, the other half got what is known as a placebo - an inactive substance.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

I haven't heard the name interferon since the HIV/AIDS epidemic came about.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kraken »

Based on current knowledge, I think an effective treatment is a more realistic hope than a vaccine, at least within the next few years. The first vaccines out of the chute are going to be of limited value unless we get very, very lucky.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by hitbyambulance »

Kraken wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:53 pm Based on current knowledge, I think an effective treatment is a more realistic hope than a vaccine, at least within the next few years. The first vaccines out of the chute are going to be of limited value unless we get very, very lucky.
this is also where my thinking is.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53488142
Vaccine 'unlikely to have durable effect'

Prof Sir John Bell, of the University of Oxford, said he thought it was unlikely that Covid-19 would ever be eliminated despite the positive news announced on Monday that trials by his university had triggered an immune response - an important step in developing a vaccine.

"The reality is that this pathogen is here forever, it isn't going anywhere," he told MPs.

"Look at how much trouble they've had in eliminating, for example, polio, that eradication programme has been going on for 15 years and they're still not there.

"So this is going to come and go, and we're going to get winters where we get a lot of this virus back in action.
at this point, they need to be working on ways to decrease the lethal-ity and disability-causing aspects of the disease.... otherwise it seems much of humanity is going to be worn down and wiped out by the odds of getting infected, and re-infected, and re-re-infected...
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Polio 15 years? Whats he been smoking?
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Max Peck »

I'd guess the 15 years referenced covers 1987-2002:
An enhanced-potency IPV was licensed in the United States in November 1987, and is currently the vaccine of choice there. The first dose of polio vaccine is given shortly after birth, usually between 1 and 2 months of age, and a second dose is given at 4 months of age. The timing of the third dose depends on the vaccine formulation, but should be given between 6 and 18 months of age. A booster vaccination is given at 4 to 6 years of age, for a total of four doses at or before school entry. In some countries, a fifth vaccination is given during adolescence. Routine vaccination of adults (18 years of age and older) in developed countries is neither necessary nor recommended because most adults are already immune and have a very small risk of exposure to wild poliovirus in their home countries. In 2002, a pentavalent (five-component) combination vaccine (called Pediarix) containing IPV was approved for use in the United States.

1988

A global effort to eradicate polio, led by the World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF, and the Rotary Foundation, began in 1988, and has relied largely on the oral polio vaccine developed by Albert Sabin and Mikhail Chumakov (Sabin-Chumakov vaccine).

After 1990

Polio was eliminated in the Americas by 1994. The disease was officially eliminated in 36 Western Pacific countries, including China and Australia, in 2000. Europe was declared polio-free in 2002.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Isgrimnur »

Science Mag
In a sad knock-on effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) abruptly halted all mass vaccination campaigns in March, worried they could inadvertently spread the novel coronavirus. The move further imperiled the troubled 3-decade drive to wipe out polio.

But now, armed with new data and perspective, GPEI and the countries it supports are resuming vaccination campaigns. Burkina Faso was first out of the gate in early July; Pakistan followed yesterday. Polio cases are surging in many countries, and models paint a “pretty bleak picture” if campaigns don’t restart soon, says Michel Zaffran, who heads the effort at the World Health Organization (WHO). For now, countries will only be responding to outbreaks; preventive campaigns remain on hold.
...
The polio campaign was in a rut even before COVID-19. In Pakistan and Afghanistan, the last bastions of the wild virus, cases of wild-type polio shot up last year to 176, from 33 in 2018, driven by rumors, vaccine refusal, and, in Afghanistan, the Taliban’s outright ban on vaccination. So far this year, the two countries have confirmed 87 wild polio cases, compared with 64 at this time last year. The real number is likely higher because the pandemic has hampered surveillance, Zaffran says.

More alarming still, Pakistan and Afghanistan are battling outbreaks of vaccine-derived polio virus as well—the only two countries facing that double challenge. Such outbreaks occur when the weakened virus used in the oral polio vaccine (OPV)—usually the type 2 component of the three polio virus serotypes—mutates and regains its ability to paralyze and spread. Type 2 vaccine-derived cases in Pakistan and Afghanistan soared from 16 at this time in 2019 to 79 so far.
...
Africa is free of the wild virus, but it too is mired in a battle against vaccine-derived virus, and there’s a strong risk of “explosive growth” on the continent, says ICL’s Isobel Blake. So far this year, Africa has reported 133 type 2 cases in 14 countries, up from 47 at this time last year. Chad alone recorded 23 cases in 1 week in June and now has 42 cases.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

I think if you asked Pence what 2+2= his answer would be "Trump shut down flights from China early"
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Paingod »

Co-worker in the office got tested today - results due in 7-10 days. She'll be on vacation until it comes back.

She went to a doctor last week that tested her for COVID and it came back negative in 72 hours, so they diagnosed her with bronchitis, but sent the antibiotics prescription to the wrong state. She went back to a clinic today to get a new prescription and they insisted on a new test.

So ... awesome.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Had to go to Walmart, Dollar General, and the laundromat.

DG - As I was headed to the door a young guy with no mask entered before me....they kicked him out. Was nice. No mask no visit. First Ive seen that.

Walmart - As I was going in there was a employee standing there with a big box of masks. I didn't notice after that as I was in a hurry but I wish Id looked at people in the store. As I left and was in the parking lot a entire family with 3 or 4 little kids were headed to go in and none had a mask. Im guessing they got one.

Laundry - was only the employee there so didn't wear mine. Tried Bubly cherry water...GROSS yeech...tasted like it had been drank once before. Confirmed that I HATE selzer water of any and all kinds. Poured it out in the bathroom.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Malificent »

Daehawk wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:00 pm Had to go to Walmart, Dollar General, and the laundromat.

DG - As I was headed to the door a young guy with no mask entered before me....they kicked him out. Was nice. No mask no visit. First Ive seen that.
https://www.kansascity.com/news/coronav ... 71562.html

Dollar General and Family Dollar reverse direction and just "request" mask wearing.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Hope my local store dont find out. I like them kicked out :)
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by hitbyambulance »

Daehawk wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:00 pm Tried Bubly cherry water...GROSS yeech...tasted like it had been drank once before. Confirmed that I HATE selzer water of any and all kinds. Poured it out in the bathroom.
you're weird. try the lemon flavor
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Anonymous Bosch »

hitbyambulance wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:22 pm
Daehawk wrote: Wed Jul 22, 2020 3:00 pm Tried Bubly cherry water...GROSS yeech...tasted like it had been drank once before. Confirmed that I HATE selzer water of any and all kinds. Poured it out in the bathroom.
you're weird. try the lemon flavor
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Isgrimnur »

He is from the South.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Blackhawk »

Bubly is the primary non-water drink in our house. I love the grapefruit, Caiden prefers orange, and Michelle likes cherry. Other favorites are La Croix tangerine and the green tea Aha.

I much prefer it over the flavored syrup people call 'pop.' (Or soda, or fizzy drink, or whatever.)
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Kraken »

I drink maybe one soda every 2-3 years, but I go thru 6 liters of seltzer every week. Plain, thank you.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

You're all sick sick people and should seek help :)
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by YellowKing »

Yeah I find seltzer is either "this is the only thing I drink OMG" or "this is the devil's pee juice." There is no in-between.

I'm a huge fan as I've used it to cut back sodas. I still have the occasional soda, but in general I keep the fridge stocked with seltzer waters. I'm not terribly picky either - I buy whatever's on sale at the moment. Sitting here right now I have Aha, Bubly, Waterloo, and the generic Target brand on hand.

My wife used to HATE them with a fiery passion, and now she'll grab one for dinner nearly every night.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Stefan Stirzaker »

Unintended consequences: Flu deaths at an all time low in Australia and the Syndromic surveillance system shows ILI at unprecedented levels of lowness.

https://www.flutracking.net/Info/Report/202030/AU

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And in other news, outbreak area in Victoria (Melbourne) has introduced mandatory masks in public backed up with $200 fine if not adhered to.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Paingod »

Feeling a twinge of a cold this morning - a light sinus tickle and a dusting of throat gunk. I'm going to chalk it up to the HVAC work they did in the building yesterday, and that it might have shaken some dust or other contaminant loose into the vents.

I don't like the whole "body hyper-awareness" around every little tingle or ache. I prefer to be able to just ignore things like this and carry on.
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Max Peck »

That feeling when you wake up to discover that it's March again, courtesy of the local covidiots.

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OPH wrote:Over the last few days, we have seen an increase in the number of positive cases of COVID-19.

Today we are reporting 43 new cases.

Many of these new cases are linked to higher-risk activities: indoor gatherings where people are not practicing physical distancing, gatherings with people outside their social circle or in some cases, people going to work when they have symptoms.

While it’s too soon to know for sure if this trend will continue, the data over the past few days is concerning.

All cases are linked to activities that occurred during Stage 2, meaning we are not yet seeing the impact of Stage 3 reopenings on new cases.

In the coming days, we can expect to see more cases reported because those infections already occurred some days ago. What we can do going forward is to reduce the opportunities for new infections and further spread.
"What? What? What?" -- The 14th Doctor

It's not enough to be a good player... you also have to play well. -- Siegbert Tarrasch
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Daehawk
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Daehawk »

Even those that believe its real dont bother with all the precautions because I think they think its just a cold. Would be karma if they suffered horribly and painfully for a couple months then had lingering side effects forever. Serve them right.
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Blackhawk
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Blackhawk »

It turns out that four people use a lot of data when everyone is stuck at home. Downloading games (100gb+ downloads for one games aren't uncommon anymore), multiple people streaming video simultaneously, and so forth all adds up. Comcast gave everyone a couple of months without overage charges, so they also didn't notify people when they went over their normal caps. That ended this month, and I started getting data alerts. I looked this morning, and out of our 1TB data cap last month, we used 1.65TB. This month we're already over the 1TB mark.

I had to pony up the extra $25 per month to get unlimited data. The overage charges would have been four times that.

The moral of the story: check your data usage. It may surprise you.
(˙pǝsɹǝʌǝɹ uǝǝq sɐɥ ʎʇıʌɐɹƃ ʃɐuosɹǝd ʎW)
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coopasonic
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by coopasonic »

That's the main justification I use for the Gigabit plan. It's the only one they offered with unlimited data. It's also fun to post my 800mb+ speedtest results. :D I have no idea what my actual usage is. I should see if I can find that.

April 1.6TB
May 1.5TB
June 2.1TB
July 1.7TB and counting
-Coop
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Paingod
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by Paingod »

Blackhawk wrote: Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:43 amThe moral of the story: check your data usage. It may surprise you.
If you're running an internet-age household, data limits are pretty much insane. There's no end to the raw bandwidth even a single person could consume if they got really bored.

I suppose there's always "Outside" but that game started to suck once they introduced the 2.02 patch.
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2021-01-20: The first good night's sleep I had in 4 years.
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gilraen
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by gilraen »

I used about 1.2TB in May, when Comcast wasn't enforcing the data cap. But there are only 2 of us in the house, and there's only so much streaming we can do. Comcast increased data caps from 1TB to 1.2TB now (1229GB). Under normal circumstances, it shouldn't be too problematic to stay under the cap. But I do check my data usage at least weekly (it's a reflex at this point, since I've been doing it for the last couple of years). Once it becomes untenable to stay under the cap (i.e. if we buy a 4K TV and want to steam 4K content), then I'd have to pony up for the unlimited data. Since I use my own modem and router, it would be an extra $30 per month.
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em2nought
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Re: [Health] The Infectious Diseases Thread

Post by em2nought »

Found something new for my mother to drink. Wouldn't want to make a trip to the hospital just to tank up on an I.V. drip if we can help it.
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Technically, he shouldn't be here.
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