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Election integrity and the transfer of power

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Kraken
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Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Kraken »

This topic keeps coming up in other threads, and is only going to become more urgent as the election nears. We know that the election is under systematic attack by the Russians, among others, and trump has signaled that he won't accept losing. I'll kick off with this and quote most (but not all) of it for those of you who still don't know how to defeat paywalls.

A bipartisan group secretly gathered to game out a contested Trump-Biden election. It wasn’t pretty.
On the second Friday in June, a group of political operatives, former government and military officials, and academics quietly convened online for what became a disturbing exercise in the fragility of American democracy.

The group, which included Democrats and Republicans, gathered to game out possible results of the November election, grappling with questions that seem less far-fetched by the day: What if President Trump refuses to concede a loss, as he publicly hinted recently he might do? How far could he go to preserve his power? And what if Democrats refuse to give in?

“All of our scenarios ended in both street-level violence and political impasse,” said Rosa Brooks, a Georgetown law professor and former Defense Department official who co-organized the group known as the Transition Integrity Project. She described what they found in bleak terms: “The law is essentially ... it’s almost helpless against a president who’s willing to ignore it.”

Using a role-playing game that is a fixture of military and national security planning, the group envisioned a dark 11 weeks between Election Day and Inauguration Day, one in which Trump and his Republican allies used every apparatus of government — the Postal Service, state lawmakers, the Justice Department, federal agents, and the military — to hold onto power, and Democrats took to the courts and the streets to try to stop it.

If it sounds paranoid or outlandish — a war room of seasoned politicos and constitutional experts playing a Washington version of Dungeons and Dragons in which the future of the republic hangs in the balance — they get it. But, as they finalize a report on what they learned and begin briefing elected officials and others, they insist their warning is serious: A close election this fall is likely to be contested, and there are few guardrails to stop a constitutional crisis, particularly if Trump flexes the considerable tools at his disposal to give himself an advantage.

“He doesn’t have to win the election,” said Nils Gilman, a historian who leads research at a think tank called the Berggruen Institute and was an organizer of the exercise. “He just has to create a plausible narrative that he didn’t lose.”

...

Brooks got the seed of the idea for the Transition Integrity Project after a dinner where a federal judge and a corporate lawyer each told her they were convinced the military or the Secret Service would have to escort Trump out of office if he lost the election and would not concede. Brooks wasn’t so sure. She and Gilman decided to turn the Washington parlor game into an actual exercise; they held an early meeting in Washington, with about 25 people, in December.

“When we started talking about this we got a lot of reactions — oh, you guys are so paranoid, don’t be ridiculous, this isn’t going to happen,” Brooks said.

Two things have happened since then: Trump has displayed increased willingness to challenge mail-in ballots, and his administration has deployed federal forces to quell protests in front of the White House and in Portland, Ore., and has threatened to do so in other cities.

“That has really shaken people,” Brooks said. “What was really a fringe idea has now become an anxiety that’s pretty widely shared.”

...

Each scenario involved a different election outcome: An unclear result on Election Day that looked increasingly like a Biden win as more ballots were counted; a clear Biden win in the popular vote and the Electoral College; an Electoral College win for Trump with Biden winning the popular vote by 5 percentage points; and a narrow Electoral College and popular vote victory for Biden.

In the scenarios, the team playing the Trump campaign often questioned the legitimacy of mail-in ballots, which often boosted Biden as they came in — shutting down post offices, pursuing litigation, and using right-wing media to amplify narratives about a stolen election.

To some participants, the game was a stark reminder of the power of incumbency.

“The more demonstrations there were, the more demands for recounts, the more legal challenges there were, the more funerals for democracy were held, the more Trump came across as the candidate of stability,” said Edward Luce, the US editor of the Financial Times, who played the role of a mainstream media reporter during one of the simulations. “Possession is nine-tenths of the law.”

...

“The Constitution really has been a workable document in many respects because we have had people who more or less adhered to a code of conduct,” said retired Army Colonel Larry Wilkerson, a Republican and former chief of staff to Colin Powell who participated in games as an observer. “That seems to no longer to be the case. That changes everything.”
The story goes into a little more detail about the various scenarios they gamed. None of them end well.

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Kraken »

Trump suggests delaying the election (which he can't do). Just laying the groundwork....
“With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history," Trump tweeted. "It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???”
(I haven't read the rest of this forum yet today, so apologies if it's been posted elsewhere.)

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Jaymann »

If it comes down to an attempted military coup, Trump has consistently screwed the military.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Fireball »

I have faith in our military's leaders to stand by the Constitution and remove Donald Trump from office at the end of his term on January 20 if he does not willingly leave, provided he does not receive 270 Electoral College votes as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Fireball wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am
as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.
What is they decide not to certify the results? Can they do that?

Do we trust them not to?
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Remus West »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:10 am
Do we trust them not to?
Is it the House or the Senate we need to place our trust in?
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Fireball »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:10 am
Fireball wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am
as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.
What is they decide not to certify the results? Can they do that?

Do we trust them not to?
Who certifies what results?
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Pyperkub »

I think we really, really need a blowout election (for a ton of reasons). The partisan edge violence seems to be escalating and I'm expecting that the lies/misinformation/FUD machine will be in full force if there is any way to spin the election. IMHO, Trump will claim it anyways, as he already does for 2016, even tho Hillary gracefully conceded. While Biden is far more likely not to contest a close election than Trump, given 2000 and 2016, there will be a ton of pressure for him not to be Gentleman Joe and fight for what is right.

As the OP indicates, none of the close election scenarios play out well for the Country.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Remus West »

Pyperkub wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:39 pm
I think we really, really need a blowout election (for a ton of reasons). The partisan edge violence seems to be escalating and I'm expecting that the lies/misinformation/FUD machine will be in full force if there is any way to spin the election. IMHO, Trump will claim it anyways, as he already does for 2016, even tho Hillary gracefully conceded. While Biden is far more likely not to contest a close election than Trump, given 2000 and 2016, there will be a ton of pressure for him not to be Gentleman Joe and fight for what is right.

As the OP indicates, none of the close election scenarios play out well for the Country.
If Biden concedes while there while there is any shadow of a doubt regarding the outcome ala Gore I will be pissed. Mostly because I do not think there is a chance in hell of it being close in a fair election so if it is close then the shenanigans are the only reason tRump doesn't lose a blow out.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Fireball »

Remus West wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:48 pm
Pyperkub wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:39 pm
I think we really, really need a blowout election (for a ton of reasons). The partisan edge violence seems to be escalating and I'm expecting that the lies/misinformation/FUD machine will be in full force if there is any way to spin the election. IMHO, Trump will claim it anyways, as he already does for 2016, even tho Hillary gracefully conceded. While Biden is far more likely not to contest a close election than Trump, given 2000 and 2016, there will be a ton of pressure for him not to be Gentleman Joe and fight for what is right.

As the OP indicates, none of the close election scenarios play out well for the Country.
If Biden concedes while there while there is any shadow of a doubt regarding the outcome ala Gore I will be pissed. Mostly because I do not think there is a chance in hell of it being close in a fair election so if it is close then the shenanigans are the only reason tRump doesn't lose a blow out.
Gore didn't concede until the election was completely over and Bush had unquestionably won, however tainted that win might have been. There were no more avenues to pursue victory through. Unless you mean the meaningless phone call he placed when the networks called Florida for Bush on Election Night?
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Remus West »

Fireball wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:57 pm
Remus West wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:48 pm
Pyperkub wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:39 pm
I think we really, really need a blowout election (for a ton of reasons). The partisan edge violence seems to be escalating and I'm expecting that the lies/misinformation/FUD machine will be in full force if there is any way to spin the election. IMHO, Trump will claim it anyways, as he already does for 2016, even tho Hillary gracefully conceded. While Biden is far more likely not to contest a close election than Trump, given 2000 and 2016, there will be a ton of pressure for him not to be Gentleman Joe and fight for what is right.

As the OP indicates, none of the close election scenarios play out well for the Country.
If Biden concedes while there while there is any shadow of a doubt regarding the outcome ala Gore I will be pissed. Mostly because I do not think there is a chance in hell of it being close in a fair election so if it is close then the shenanigans are the only reason tRump doesn't lose a blow out.
Gore didn't concede until the election was completely over and Bush had unquestionably won, however tainted that win might have been. There were no more avenues to pursue victory through. Unless you mean the meaningless phone call he placed when the networks called Florida for Bush on Election Night?
irrc there was a lot of talk about the SC being asked to look at the voting in Florida. I could be wrong though as, at the time, I was sad but acceptant of the outcome.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Archinerd »

Why would we need to delay anything? Coronavirus is a hoax!

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Pyperkub »

Remus West wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:06 pm
Fireball wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:57 pm
Remus West wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:48 pm
Pyperkub wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:39 pm
I think we really, really need a blowout election (for a ton of reasons). The partisan edge violence seems to be escalating and I'm expecting that the lies/misinformation/FUD machine will be in full force if there is any way to spin the election. IMHO, Trump will claim it anyways, as he already does for 2016, even tho Hillary gracefully conceded. While Biden is far more likely not to contest a close election than Trump, given 2000 and 2016, there will be a ton of pressure for him not to be Gentleman Joe and fight for what is right.

As the OP indicates, none of the close election scenarios play out well for the Country.
If Biden concedes while there while there is any shadow of a doubt regarding the outcome ala Gore I will be pissed. Mostly because I do not think there is a chance in hell of it being close in a fair election so if it is close then the shenanigans are the only reason tRump doesn't lose a blow out.
Gore didn't concede until the election was completely over and Bush had unquestionably won, however tainted that win might have been. There were no more avenues to pursue victory through. Unless you mean the meaningless phone call he placed when the networks called Florida for Bush on Election Night?
irrc there was a lot of talk about the SC being asked to look at the voting in Florida. I could be wrong though as, at the time, I was sad but acceptant of the outcome.
The SC did step in and effectively halt the recounts and declare Bush the winner. Final tallies of statewide accepted ballots eventually appeared to confirm that, but Gore likely wins if the Florida ballot wasn't so godawful.
There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Max Peck »

Archinerd wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:16 pm
Why would we need to delay anything? Coronavirus is a hoax!
The pretext is mail-in votes, not the pandemic per se.

Personally, I think this is just Trump's way of being the center of attention on the day of John Lewis's memorial service. Everyone is talking about him, not Lewis. :coffee:
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Paingod »

For some reason, when I saw this thread title I had a sudden image in my mind of Trump standing in the Rose Garden, grabbing himself and declaring "I've got your election results right here" ... he's just about that subtle.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by YellowKing »

Yeah honestly I wish the media would stop jumping through the hoops he sets up for them. He knows good and well that tweeting out election delay bullshit is going to get every news outlet in a tizzy. He's the ultimate troll, stop feeding him.

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by LordMortis »

YellowKing wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:38 pm
Yeah honestly I wish the media would stop jumping through the hoops he sets up for them. He knows good and well that tweeting out election delay bullshit is going to get every news outlet in a tizzy. He's the ultimate troll, stop feeding him.
It is not trolling when it come from the POTUS. It's dangerous propaganda. There is no context, only the rantings of a high on power, lawyers, and confidentiality megalomaniac, who loves to flout that he might not accept election results since before 2016.

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by El Guapo »



This is a good summary (by David Frum) of the key election dates and the opportunities for shenanigans with them.

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by malchior »

Trump spent his corona power hour tonight to essentially undermine the election. His strategy now will be to litigate it into oblivion. None of his chiefs are pushing back and the GOP Senate is largely silent -- edit: to be fair, they shook their heads and said the election won't be delayed but didn't address that the President fucking said it in the first place. This is only going to get worse here on out.

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by gameoverman »

Fireball wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am
I have faith in our military's leaders to stand by the Constitution and remove Donald Trump from office at the end of his term on January 20 if he does not willingly leave, provided he does not receive 270 Electoral College votes as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.
Remember back in June when he did his photo op? I'm pretty sure that Joint Chiefs guy was walking with him. In addition, now Trump is using 'federal agents' instead of military to do his bidding. I can foresee a worst case scenario where Trump claims fraud and tells the public he's going to remain President until the fraud is sorted out. This obviously won't happen any time soon because of the pandemic complicating things. Meanwhile he uses federal agents to secure his position. These agents have shown, in Portland, that they'll follow his orders. Meanwhile the military doesn't help Trump, not wanting to operate on US soil against civilians but the military also does not move against him. Their excuse will be he's their commander in chief as long as he's President, and it's up to the legislative or judicial branch to sort out the election.

At that point, who gets the job of removing him from the White House? Who would have the authority to give the 'go' command for that operation?

Best case scenario in my opinion would be Trump loses the election, he claims fraud just to create chaos for Biden, then Trump announces that since this country is controlled by the radical left he's done with trying to save the country. He tells the country to not bother asking him to come back because he has no interest in fixing the mess Biden will leave behind. He leaves office like a bratty kid who is taking his ball and going home.

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Jaymann »

As long as he leaves. If he flat out refuses I would fear for his health.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Kraken »

Jaymann wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:21 pm
As long as he leaves. If he flat out refuses I would fear for his health.
He will cut a deal with Biden to leave peacefully in exchange for a pardon.

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Holman »

Trump will be lured out of the White House with the promise of a presidential reality show on OANN.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Jeff V »

Jaymann wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:21 pm
As long as he leaves. If he flat out refuses I would fear for his health.
I wouldn't. Send the same thugs he deployed to Portland to remove him in the most painful way possible. Maybe then provide temporary housing for him in an immigrant cage near the border.

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by LordMortis »

Holman wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:54 am
Trump will be lured out of the White House with the promise of a presidential reality show on OANN.
Lord, that does not sound far fetched. He gets some sort of major minority interest in the network and then it leverages cable providers (pandering to an aging suburban non cord cutting populace) as a replacement for the Newsmax and Fox and then conducts Russian propaganda to consumers of "Conservative" news.

That sounds like a very plausible scenario.

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Holman »

LordMortis wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:06 am
Holman wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:54 am
Trump will be lured out of the White House with the promise of a presidential reality show on OANN.
Lord, that does not sound far fetched. He gets some sort of major minority interest in the network and then it leverages cable providers (pandering to an aging suburban non cord cutting populace) as a replacement for the Newsmax and Fox and then conducts Russian propaganda to consumers of "Conservative" news.

That sounds like a very plausible scenario.
I'd be willing to bet that this is Trump's next move.

In fact something like this was the plan in 2016 when he didn't expect to win.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by hepcat »

Holman wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:54 am
Trump will be lured out of the White House with the promise of a presidential reality show on OANN.
...or KFC.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Fireball »

gameoverman wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:55 pm
Fireball wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am
I have faith in our military's leaders to stand by the Constitution and remove Donald Trump from office at the end of his term on January 20 if he does not willingly leave, provided he does not receive 270 Electoral College votes as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.
Remember back in June when he did his photo op? I'm pretty sure that Joint Chiefs guy was walking with him. In addition, now Trump is using 'federal agents' instead of military to do his bidding. I can foresee a worst case scenario where Trump claims fraud and tells the public he's going to remain President until the fraud is sorted out. This obviously won't happen any time soon because of the pandemic complicating things. Meanwhile he uses federal agents to secure his position. These agents have shown, in Portland, that they'll follow his orders. Meanwhile the military doesn't help Trump, not wanting to operate on US soil against civilians but the military also does not move against him. Their excuse will be he's their commander in chief as long as he's President, and it's up to the legislative or judicial branch to sort out the election.

At that point, who gets the job of removing him from the White House? Who would have the authority to give the 'go' command for that operation?

Best case scenario in my opinion would be Trump loses the election, he claims fraud just to create chaos for Biden, then Trump announces that since this country is controlled by the radical left he's done with trying to save the country. He tells the country to not bother asking him to come back because he has no interest in fixing the mess Biden will leave behind. He leaves office like a bratty kid who is taking his ball and going home.
At noon on January 20, 2021, Joe Biden would be come president even if there wasn't an Inauguration. At that point all command codes issued to Trump would become inactive, and the Joint Chiefs would report to Biden, as would the National Guard, including the DC National Guard. If for some reason Trump refuses to leave, and if for some insane reason he's barricaded himself in the White House with his pathetic little play-army of ICE officers protecting him, the DC National Guard would be deployed to remove him, through force if necessary.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Fireball »

hepcat wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:38 am
Holman wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:54 am
Trump will be lured out of the White House with the promise of a presidential reality show on OANN.
...or KFC.
Set up a McDonalds in Lafayette Square, and seize or shoot him when he rumbles out for a Big Mac.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by El Guapo »

Trump's scheming is going to center around getting or claiming a majority of the electoral college votes. If he can get there, even if it's built around fairly obvious shenanigans, he has a decent shot at staying in office. If he can't, simply refusing to leave is very unlikely to work.

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Fireball »

El Guapo wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:49 am
Trump's scheming is going to center around getting or claiming a majority of the electoral college votes. If he can get there, even if it's built around fairly obvious shenanigans, he has a decent shot at staying in office. If he can't, simply refusing to leave is very unlikely to work.
Whoever receives 270 or more Electoral College votes when the Congress counts the votes in January will be president. If Trump thinks he can get Electoral College votes without actually winning the relevant states he is welcome to try, but I don't think that would work.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by El Guapo »

Fireball wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:50 am
El Guapo wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:49 am
Trump's scheming is going to center around getting or claiming a majority of the electoral college votes. If he can get there, even if it's built around fairly obvious shenanigans, he has a decent shot at staying in office. If he can't, simply refusing to leave is very unlikely to work.
Whoever receives 270 or more Electoral College votes when the Congress counts the votes in January will be president. If Trump thinks he can get Electoral College votes without actually winning the relevant states he is welcome to try, but I don't think that would work.
What I worry about is stuff like this:

(1) Trump causes or plays up reports of voting disruptions in a few key GOP controlled states, like Wisconsin.
(2) The Wisconsin GOP legislature declares that Trump won a majority of the legitimate vote, and votes to award Wisconsin's electoral votes to Trump, notwithstanding general reporting indicating that Biden won;
(3) SCOTUS declines to intervene on some neutral-sounding grounds (a la Bush v. Gore), and Pence as the sitting VP recognizes the GOP WI delegation notwithstanding Democratic protests.

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LawBeefaroni
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Fireball wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:16 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:10 am
Fireball wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am
as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.
What is they decide not to certify the results? Can they do that?

Do we trust them not to?
Who certifies what results?
Well...
Fireball wrote:provided he does not receive 270 Electoral College votes as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.
Congress certifies the results of the electoral college.


JANUARY 6, 2017 / 12:17 PM / 4 YEARS AGO
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Congress on Friday certified the Electoral College vote that gave Republican Donald Trump his victory in the contentious 2016 presidential election after a raucous half-hour joint session punctuated by Democratic challenges.
I get that it is largely a formality but as we have seen, formalities and norms are out the window and nothing can be taken for granted now. So what happens if they [Congress] don't pass the formality of certifying the results [of the electoral college vote]?
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Fireball »

El Guapo wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:59 am
Fireball wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:50 am
El Guapo wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:49 am
Trump's scheming is going to center around getting or claiming a majority of the electoral college votes. If he can get there, even if it's built around fairly obvious shenanigans, he has a decent shot at staying in office. If he can't, simply refusing to leave is very unlikely to work.
Whoever receives 270 or more Electoral College votes when the Congress counts the votes in January will be president. If Trump thinks he can get Electoral College votes without actually winning the relevant states he is welcome to try, but I don't think that would work.
What I worry about is stuff like this:

(1) Trump causes or plays up reports of voting disruptions in a few key GOP controlled states, like Wisconsin.
(2) The Wisconsin GOP legislature declares that Trump won a majority of the legitimate vote, and votes to award Wisconsin's electoral votes to Trump, notwithstanding general reporting indicating that Biden won;
(3) SCOTUS declines to intervene on some neutral-sounding grounds (a la Bush v. Gore), and Pence as the sitting VP recognizes the GOP WI delegation notwithstanding Democratic protests.
Retroactively changing the manner in which Electors are awarded would require changing state law. It is unlikely the Supreme Court would allow such an after-the-fact change, but even if they did changing a law would require a new law to be passed. So let's look at the most likely swing states.

Swing states with Democratic governors and Democratic control of at least one branch of the legislature: Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4).

Swing states with Democratic governors and Republican legislative majorities too small to overturn a veto: Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10)

Swing states with a Democratic governor and Republican legislative majority sufficient to overturn a veto: North Carolina (15)

Swing states with Republican governors and Republican control of the legislature: Texas (38), Florida (29), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Iowa (6)

So if Biden won the states Hillary won and Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, he'd have 278 Electoral College Votes and the Republican legislatures would be incapable of overturning it because they wouldn't be able to get around gubernatorial vetos in those states.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Holman »

The new congress is seated before January, and it is very likely to be made up of more Democrats than today.

...Which raises the question (in the darkest-timeline scenario), who has power to certify (or not certify) congressional elections? Could an evil Secretary of State or legislatures in some states go along with Trump's bluster and prevent at least some congressmen/senators from getting their seats? What would happen if they did so?

In the Trump era we're forced to at least wonder about these things.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Fireball »

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:11 am
Fireball wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:16 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:10 am
Fireball wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am
as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.
What is they decide not to certify the results? Can they do that?

Do we trust them not to?
Who certifies what results?
Well...
Fireball wrote:provided he does not receive 270 Electoral College votes as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.
Congress certifies the results of the electoral college.


JANUARY 6, 2017 / 12:17 PM / 4 YEARS AGO
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Congress on Friday certified the Electoral College vote that gave Republican Donald Trump his victory in the contentious 2016 presidential election after a raucous half-hour joint session punctuated by Democratic challenges.
I get that it is largely a formality but as we have seen, formalities and norms are out the window and nothing can be taken for granted now. So what happens if they [Congress] don't pass the formality of certifying the results [of the electoral college vote]?
The Constitution says "The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted." So Congress can't really stop this from happening. I really don't get what you're trying to assert would/could happen here.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Fireball »

Holman wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:21 am
The new congress is seated before January, and it is very likely to be made up of more Democrats than today.

...Which raises the question (in the darkest-timeline scenario), who has power to certify (or not certify) congressional elections? Could an evil Secretary of State or legislatures in some states go along with Trump's bluster and prevent at least some congressmen/senators from getting their seats? What would happen if they did so?

In the Trump era we're forced to at least wonder about these things.
State governments certify election results under the auspices of their own laws. The notion that somehow enough Republican-led states could get around this sufficiently to prevent the seating of a Democratic Congressional majority, in defiance of their own laws and requiring the support of their own courts and Federal courts, is just a paranoid delusion.
Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:17 am
Zarathud: The sad thing is that Barak Obama is a very intelligent and articulate person, even when you disagree with his views it's clear that he's very thoughtful. I would have loved to see Obama in a real debate.
Me: Wait 12 years, when he runs for president. :-)

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Fireball wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:22 am
LawBeefaroni wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:11 am
Fireball wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:16 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:10 am
Fireball wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am
as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.
What is they decide not to certify the results? Can they do that?

Do we trust them not to?
Who certifies what results?
Well...
Fireball wrote:provided he does not receive 270 Electoral College votes as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.
Congress certifies the results of the electoral college.


JANUARY 6, 2017 / 12:17 PM / 4 YEARS AGO
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Congress on Friday certified the Electoral College vote that gave Republican Donald Trump his victory in the contentious 2016 presidential election after a raucous half-hour joint session punctuated by Democratic challenges.
I get that it is largely a formality but as we have seen, formalities and norms are out the window and nothing can be taken for granted now. So what happens if they [Congress] don't pass the formality of certifying the results [of the electoral college vote]?
The Constitution says "The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted." So Congress can't really stop this from happening. I really don't get what you're trying to assert would/could happen here.
From the 2016 article:
None of the representatives [objecting] had the backing of a senator, which would have allowed them to suspend the joint session and allow the House and Senate to meet separately to debate the objections.
So it sounds like there is a mechanism for Congress to delay the count/outcome. The assertion being that it is another front from which the GOP/Trump could attack an election result.


Unrelated, this quote from the article:
Biden denied the objections one by one, at times jocular and apparently determined to finish the tally. “It is over,” he said at one point, to laughter from Republicans.
Little did he know he wasn't talking about the election.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by stessier »

I was posting about my journey to being a poll worker in the Coronavirus thread, but this may be a better choice. Got this message today -
We are writing you today to ask for your help! We will need more than 1600 election workers for this General Election. At present we have a little more than 700 officially committed. We are asking for your help to recruit more of the best and brightest in our community to help us have the best election possible. Remember, this will be a General Election and we fully expect 70 to 80% of our 335,000 registered voters to come out and vote.
True, we are still a ways out, but I can't imagine this is a good sign for having an orderly election.
I require a reminder as to why raining arcane destruction is not an appropriate response to all of life's indignities. - Vaarsuvius
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by El Guapo »



I don't get it. Seems like Democrats should care more about having a fair election this fall?

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