The Viral Economy

For discussion of religion and politics

Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus

Post Reply
User avatar
Carpet_pissr
Posts: 19980
Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2004 5:32 pm
Location: Columbia, SC

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

To be fair, the chances of Gamestop stock going up infinitely are also very, VERY low. Not zero, but lowwwwwww.
User avatar
Paingod
Posts: 13132
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2010 8:58 am

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Paingod »

Kurth wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:41 pmI wonder how many of the idiots jumping on this GameStop circus understand the fundamental concept that if you buy a stock, your potential loss is capped by the amount you paid for the stock, but if you short a stock, your potential losses are unlimited.
Almost all of them. It's why they're doing it. They want to drive the short-sellers and their allies right into the ground and bury them as deeply as they can. No one's walking around in their camp going "Hey, guys, we're kind of screwing with a lot of people's money here" ...

It's a large number of small fish (admittedly with a few bigger ones in the school) that seem to have scented on a shark's blood and are massing to try and kill it. They're pushing for the share prices to keep climbing as high as they can go and they know what that means. They'd LOVE to see their shares they bought at $18, $25, $50, $100, $200, or $300 skyrocket to $1000 or more and are chanting for the "squeeze"

The battlecry is "HOLD! HOLD!" and they keep punting around Braveheart and 300 memes where a smaller force took down monolithic odds.

News reports over the weekend about "Silver" being their new target are false flags. The subreddits over there are seething over the attempt by spam bots and media outlets to distract buyers into a different commodities than GME or AMC. They say most of the "Buy Silver" posts are coming from accounts with no post history that were made in the last week.
Black Lives Matter

2021-01-20: The first good night's sleep I had in 4 years.
User avatar
LawBeefaroni
Forum Moderator
Posts: 55316
Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:08 pm
Location: Urbs in Horto, outrageous taxes on everything

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Paingod wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:50 am

News reports over the weekend about "Silver" being their new target are false flags. The subreddits over there are seething over the attempt by spam bots and media outlets to distract buyers into a different commodities than GME or AMC. They say most of the "Buy Silver" posts are coming from accounts with no post history that were made in the last week.
GME is a <$2B company trading at $22B. Silver has a market cap around $1T. They'd have a tough time moving the needle significantly.

Still, silver is up 10%. I'll probably sell my SILV calls this morning.

Another KOSS move? Maybe but I'm sticking with the plan.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General
"No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton

MYT
User avatar
Kurth
Posts: 5882
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2005 1:19 am
Location: Portland

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kurth »

Paingod wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:50 am
Kurth wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:41 pmI wonder how many of the idiots jumping on this GameStop circus understand the fundamental concept that if you buy a stock, your potential loss is capped by the amount you paid for the stock, but if you short a stock, your potential losses are unlimited.
Almost all of them. It's why they're doing it. They want to drive the short-sellers and their allies right into the ground and bury them as deeply as they can. No one's walking around in their camp going "Hey, guys, we're kind of screwing with a lot of people's money here" ...

It's a large number of small fish (admittedly with a few bigger ones in the school) that seem to have scented on a shark's blood and are massing to try and kill it. They're pushing for the share prices to keep climbing as high as they can go and they know what that means. They'd LOVE to see their shares they bought at $18, $25, $50, $100, $200, or $300 skyrocket to $1000 or more and are chanting for the "squeeze"

The battlecry is "HOLD! HOLD!" and they keep punting around Braveheart and 300 memes where a smaller force took down monolithic odds.

News reports over the weekend about "Silver" being their new target are false flags. The subreddits over there are seething over the attempt by spam bots and media outlets to distract buyers into a different commodities than GME or AMC. They say most of the "Buy Silver" posts are coming from accounts with no post history that were made in the last week.
I wasn’t clear. I’m talking about the idiots who are jumping on the bandwagon and pouring their money into GameStop now, not the WallStreetBets crowd that kicked this off.
Just 'cause you feel it, doesn't mean it's there -- Radiohead
Do you believe me? Do you trust me? Do you like me? 😳
User avatar
Jaymann
Posts: 19324
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:13 pm
Location: California

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Jaymann »

Bezos is out as Amazon CEO. Still on the Board.
Jaymann
]==(:::::::::::::>
Black Lives Matter
Freyland
Posts: 3042
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 11:03 pm

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Freyland »

Anyone know why?
Sims 3 and signature unclear.
User avatar
stessier
Posts: 29819
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:30 pm
Location: SC

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by stessier »

Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:05 pm Anyone know why?
Stepping down to focus on Blue Origin and Washington Post.
I require a reminder as to why raining arcane destruction is not an appropriate response to all of life's indignities. - Vaarsuvius
Global Steam Wishmaslist Tracking
Running____2014: 1300.55 miles____2015: 2036.13 miles____2016: 1012.75 miles____2017: 1105.82 miles____2018: 1318.91 miles__2019: 2000.00 miles
User avatar
gbasden
Posts: 7664
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 1:57 am
Location: Sacramento, CA

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by gbasden »

stessier wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:48 pm
Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:05 pm Anyone know why?
Stepping down to focus on Blue Origin and Washington Post.
Underpaying his employees to boost his obscene wealth was taking up too much free time.
User avatar
$iljanus
Forum Moderator
Posts: 13676
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 3:46 pm
Location: New England...or under your bed

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by $iljanus »

gbasden wrote:
stessier wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:48 pm
Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:05 pm Anyone know why?
Stepping down to focus on Blue Origin and Washington Post.
Underpaying his employees to boost his obscene wealth was taking up too much free time.
Well sometimes you need to step back and just enjoy the view on the backs of your underpaid workers.
Black lives matter!

Wise words of warning from Smoove B: Oh, how you all laughed when I warned you about the semen. Well, who's laughing now?
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LordMortis »

Don't they all do it the shortly after they are no longer the richest (documented) man in the world? CNBC suggests it's been a long time in the making but then aren't they always? At nearly 60, I don't know why you'd still want that level of work. But I'm not driven like others.
User avatar
stessier
Posts: 29819
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:30 pm
Location: SC

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by stessier »

gbasden wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:06 am
stessier wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:48 pm
Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:05 pm Anyone know why?
Stepping down to focus on Blue Origin and Washington Post.
Underpaying his employees to boost his obscene wealth was taking up too much free time.
Just out of curiosity, who is your model for a CEO who doesn't underpay his workers?
I require a reminder as to why raining arcane destruction is not an appropriate response to all of life's indignities. - Vaarsuvius
Global Steam Wishmaslist Tracking
Running____2014: 1300.55 miles____2015: 2036.13 miles____2016: 1012.75 miles____2017: 1105.82 miles____2018: 1318.91 miles__2019: 2000.00 miles
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

stessier wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:04 am
gbasden wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:06 am
stessier wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:48 pm
Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:05 pm Anyone know why?
Stepping down to focus on Blue Origin and Washington Post.
Underpaying his employees to boost his obscene wealth was taking up too much free time.
Just out of curiosity, who is your model for a CEO who doesn't underpay his workers?
Costco. But I think that's the whole list.
User avatar
Carpet_pissr
Posts: 19980
Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2004 5:32 pm
Location: Columbia, SC

The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

One of my buddies just started at a local Amazon warehouse (bottom level) and makes $15/hr. I’m not saying that’s great (especially relative to the success of the company) but there are far worse offenders out there if you want to play the “low wage” blame game (which I think personally SHOULD be played).

I did quite a bit of side gig work for them in the past 2 years as a Flex driver (95% Whole Foods) and regularly made $30-40/hr.* Sometimes a lot more.

When the pandemic first broke out I was averaging $50+/hr.* Sometimes a lot more. That’s not an Amazon employee “technically” but only bc the laws surrounding gig work are horribly broken in favor of the companies hiring.

*my car, my gas, so although that brings the wage down, the tax rebate for that situation is IMO very generous @.68/mile, so it’s not a wash, but pretty close
User avatar
stessier
Posts: 29819
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:30 pm
Location: SC

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by stessier »

malchior wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:41 am
stessier wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:04 am
gbasden wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:06 am
stessier wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:48 pm
Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:05 pm Anyone know why?
Stepping down to focus on Blue Origin and Washington Post.
Underpaying his employees to boost his obscene wealth was taking up too much free time.
Just out of curiosity, who is your model for a CEO who doesn't underpay his workers?
Costco. But I think that's the whole list.
What metric are we using here? The CEO's pay to his workers pay for COSTCO is 169:1. For Bezos, it's 58:1.
I require a reminder as to why raining arcane destruction is not an appropriate response to all of life's indignities. - Vaarsuvius
Global Steam Wishmaslist Tracking
Running____2014: 1300.55 miles____2015: 2036.13 miles____2016: 1012.75 miles____2017: 1105.82 miles____2018: 1318.91 miles__2019: 2000.00 miles
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Fair though I think that is the trouble with ratios without context. Amazon is a conglomerate. The ratio includes a measure of AWS/Amazon corporate who get paid very high wages but also hourly warehouse workers who have low wages and have poor working conditions. Nearly everyone at Costco is paid a living wage down to the person working on the sales floor. That is why it is complicated.
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by noxiousdog »

gbasden wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:06 am
stessier wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:48 pm
Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:05 pm Anyone know why?
Stepping down to focus on Blue Origin and Washington Post.
Underpaying his employees to boost his obscene wealth was taking up too much free time.
You know there's no correlation right? His wealth is through Amazon stock. I'm not even sure it would be legal to take his personal stock and give it to employees; let alone precedented.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Unagi
Posts: 26376
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 5:14 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Unagi »

stessier wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 9:31 am
malchior wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:41 am
stessier wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:04 am
gbasden wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:06 am
stessier wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:48 pm
Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:05 pm Anyone know why?
Stepping down to focus on Blue Origin and Washington Post.
Underpaying his employees to boost his obscene wealth was taking up too much free time.
Just out of curiosity, who is your model for a CEO who doesn't underpay his workers?
Costco. But I think that's the whole list.
What metric are we using here? The CEO's pay to his workers pay for COSTCO is 169:1. For Bezos, it's 58:1.
But Costco must have a fraction of the ‘talent’ that Amazon needs to have, considering the nature of the businesses.
User avatar
Exodor
Posts: 17196
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:10 pm
Location: Portland, OR

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Exodor »

noxiousdog wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:34 am
gbasden wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:06 am
stessier wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:48 pm
Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:05 pm Anyone know why?
Stepping down to focus on Blue Origin and Washington Post.
Underpaying his employees to boost his obscene wealth was taking up too much free time.
You know there's no correlation right? His wealth is through Amazon stock. I'm not even sure it would be legal to take his personal stock and give it to employees; let alone precedented.
Isn't Amazon's stock price based, to an extent, on maximizing profits by minimizing employee costs? The methods Amazon uses to do so are a bit rough and I think it's fair to hold Bezos and the leadership of the company responsible. My outrage at Amazon is focused more on the sweatshop conditions in their warehouses than on the employee pay.
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by noxiousdog »

Exodor wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:38 am Isn't Amazon's stock price based, to an extent, on maximizing profits by minimizing employee costs? The methods Amazon uses to do so are a bit rough and I think it's fair to hold Bezos and the leadership of the company responsible.
Only very indirectly. Amazon's stock price is purely based on what individual investors (see Gamestop craziness or Tesla) will pay for the stock. Bezos has zero control over that. And 99% of his wealth is tied up in that.

He only owns 11% of the company, so even if he wanted to make it a non-profit and give all the profits to the employees, he'd have to convince 40% of the other shareholders to agree.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Combustible Lemur
Posts: 3961
Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2005 10:17 pm
Location: houston, TX

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Combustible Lemur »

Anecdote. I have some froends that voluntarily work amazon warehouse part time. They like it.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

Is Scott home? thump thump thump Crash ......No.
User avatar
stessier
Posts: 29819
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:30 pm
Location: SC

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by stessier »

malchior wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:19 am Fair though I think that is the trouble with ratios without context. Amazon is a conglomerate. The ratio includes a measure of AWS/Amazon corporate who get paid very high wages but also hourly warehouse workers who have low wages and have poor working conditions. Nearly everyone at Costco is paid a living wage down to the person working on the sales floor. That is why it is complicated.
I agree it's complicated which is why I asked about metrics just to be sure I understood where you were coming from. I don't know about the living wage argument - I haven't done the research. Do you know how they arrive at the number and is it indexed for location?

My company has no location indexing, so if you live in CA, you struggle, but it you live in the South, you do quite well. I'm not sure how fair that is either.
I require a reminder as to why raining arcane destruction is not an appropriate response to all of life's indignities. - Vaarsuvius
Global Steam Wishmaslist Tracking
Running____2014: 1300.55 miles____2015: 2036.13 miles____2016: 1012.75 miles____2017: 1105.82 miles____2018: 1318.91 miles__2019: 2000.00 miles
User avatar
Alefroth
Posts: 8489
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 1:56 pm
Location: Bellingham WA

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Alefroth »

noxiousdog wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:34 am
gbasden wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:06 am
stessier wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:48 pm
Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:05 pm Anyone know why?
Stepping down to focus on Blue Origin and Washington Post.
Underpaying his employees to boost his obscene wealth was taking up too much free time.
You know there's no correlation right? His wealth is through Amazon stock. I'm not even sure it would be legal to take his personal stock and give it to employees; let alone precedented.
What would happen to his stock value if the lowest Amazon wages were given a significant bump?
User avatar
Carpet_pissr
Posts: 19980
Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2004 5:32 pm
Location: Columbia, SC

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Alefroth wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:56 pm
noxiousdog wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:34 am
gbasden wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 3:06 am
stessier wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:48 pm
Freyland wrote: Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:05 pm Anyone know why?
Stepping down to focus on Blue Origin and Washington Post.
Underpaying his employees to boost his obscene wealth was taking up too much free time.
You know there's no correlation right? His wealth is through Amazon stock. I'm not even sure it would be legal to take his personal stock and give it to employees; let alone precedented.
What would happen to his stock value if the lowest Amazon wages were given a significant bump?
Amazon Raises Minimum Wage to $15 for All U.S. Employees
Announced October 2, 2018 went into effect in November of same year.

Stock price for the relevant period (with the S&P overlaid for reference and to compare against broader market movement):
Enlarge Image

If you expand that out into the future, that stock price drop (starting around the data of the announced higher wages) continued for about 2 months, so even if that did affect the stock, it wasn't for long. Amazon is such a huge beast with so many moving parts, it's really hard to say with certainty that the relatively small blip down was a direct result of the higher wage announcement. I guess it would be important to have the numbers to show what % of revenue that increase "cost" them. I would guess it was RELATIVELY VERY minor (thus the tiny potentially correlated blip on the chart).
User avatar
Carpet_pissr
Posts: 19980
Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2004 5:32 pm
Location: Columbia, SC

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Also, while we are discussing Amazon:
"Amazon’s Next CEO Says He’s Committed to Making Video Games"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-n ... 48289.html
User avatar
gbasden
Posts: 7664
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 1:57 am
Location: Sacramento, CA

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by gbasden »

noxiousdog wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 11:34 am
You know there's no correlation right? His wealth is through Amazon stock. I'm not even sure it would be legal to take his personal stock and give it to employees; let alone precedented.
No, there's no direct correlation. As CEO, though, he is responsible for the shitty conditions that the warehouse workers toil in and the comparatively poor pay they endure. And it's not just an indictment of him, but he is the most visible of the ultra-plutocrats that could easily transform the lives of those who work for him without even budging the needle on their wealth.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... -warehouse
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by noxiousdog »

So it's not directly related, but you make the connection again.

The reality is sure, workers need more representation. I'm a fan of the German model who have at least a 20% representation on the board of directors of public corporations.

Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Jaymann
Posts: 19324
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:13 pm
Location: California

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Jaymann »

Yeah that Gisele Bündchen is one powerful model.
Jaymann
]==(:::::::::::::>
Black Lives Matter
User avatar
gbasden
Posts: 7664
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 1:57 am
Location: Sacramento, CA

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by gbasden »

noxiousdog wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 10:15 pm So it's not directly related, but you make the connection again.

The reality is sure, workers need more representation. I'm a fan of the German model who have at least a 20% representation on the board of directors of public corporations.
OK, so do you believe that CEO compensation and wealth is completely divorced from the welfare of the workers that the corporation employs?

I also think workers absolutely need more representation. But that doesn't negate the concept that as CEO Bezos absolutely could have done more to improve working conditions and increase pay for his bottom quartile of workers. This potentially could have caused his stock to rise at a slightly slower pace. He doesn't have to leverage his personal fortune to directly improve his workers lives, although I certainly hope he follows Gates' example of using his vast, vast fortune for the betterment of humanity.
User avatar
Paingod
Posts: 13132
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2010 8:58 am

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Paingod »

Kurth wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:53 pmThere's nothing wrong with short selling. It's not vultures picking over the bones of sad, dying companies. Short sellers are not "hedge-fund raiders" (whatever the fuck that means). Institutional short selling is actually a stabilizing force, or should be when not manipulated by a bunch of greedy redditors and a legion of idiots who really have no business trading but are now empowered to do so by the Robinhoods of the world.
When people complain about short sellers being shitbag vultures, they're remembering things like this. I think if you want an example of "whatever the fuck a hedge-fund raider" is, it's this.
About a decade and a half ago, my company came under short seller attack. We faced a highly-coordinated PR and legal campaign, and it almost brought the company down. What made no sense was that our company was thriving, on track for its best year yet and consistently crushing analyst expectations. We discovered in time that the shorts had worked the media, contacted regulators, colluded with someone in our company, and timed their trades just before bad news broke.

The damage was significant. More than a billion dollars in shareholder equity vanished, much of it into the pockets of the short sellers. These attacks can get personal, too. At one point, I faced death threats and moved in order to keep my family safe.

I know other executives who have equally brutal stories about short attacks. But we don't talk about them. Our lawyers urge us to settle; our comms people urge silence. No one wants to be on the wrong side of a short attack. But seeing what WSB did these past few weeks made me want to speak out.
This isn't an isolated incident. While it may not represent all short sellers, when a few go out of their way to take down companies like packs of hyenas after a zebra it sticks in people's minds and I don't fault folks who find the practice of betting on failure distasteful. Not when it's been weaponized against successful companies.
Black Lives Matter

2021-01-20: The first good night's sleep I had in 4 years.
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by noxiousdog »

Again, it's irrelevant. It's a guy whining about his personal net worth being temporarily down.

Let's assume you have a private company. It's making a nice profit. Some investment group wants to buy it and offers you 10% of it's true value. Of course you don't want to sell for that price. If that firm takes out an ad in the paper, does that change your mind?

People don't like short sellers for two reasons:
1) it destroys the illusion that the market always goes up.
2) they don't understand how the stock market works
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
Paingod
Posts: 13132
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2010 8:58 am

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Paingod »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:37 amAgain, it's irrelevant.
A concerted attack to manipulate the market by short sellers on a business in order to kill its market value when discussing why people might not like short sellers is irrelevant?
Black Lives Matter

2021-01-20: The first good night's sleep I had in 4 years.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:37 am Again, it's irrelevant. It's a guy whining about his personal net worth being temporarily down.

Let's assume you have a private company. It's making a nice profit. Some investment group wants to buy it and offers you 10% of it's true value. Of course you don't want to sell for that price. If that firm takes out an ad in the paper, does that change your mind?

People don't like short sellers for two reasons:
1) it destroys the illusion that the market always goes up.
2) they don't understand how the stock market works
It isn't totally irrelevant but the actual question is how much systemic risk is introduced because we allow short selling. What the Axon dude is complaining about is what can happen when big players got on the wrong side of a position. Those players will sometimes try to fight their way out of it. And that is aligned with their capability to move markets, bring nuisance share holder lawsuits, and lobby to influence regulators and lawmakers. It is a negative but is it outweighed by the positives -- price discovery, uncovering fraud, etc.? It'd take a whole lot more evidence than Axon dude *and* this WSB nonsense to convince me of that.
User avatar
RunningMn9
Posts: 24461
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:55 pm
Location: The Sword Coast
Contact:

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by RunningMn9 »

Kurth wrote:This is just so much bullshit. There's nothing wrong with short selling. It's not vultures picking over the bones of sad, dying companies. Short sellers are not "hedge-fund raiders" (whatever the fuck that means). Institutional short selling is actually a stabilizing force, or should be when not manipulated by a bunch of greedy redditors and a legion of idiots who really have no business trading but are now empowered to do so by the Robinhoods of the world.
There’s nothing at all wrong with the concept of short-selling (aside from whether you believe it makes any sense at all to allow someone to sell something they don’t have or own).

The theoretical notion that an investor should be allowed to be for or against a stock certainly seems reasonable.

And John Q. Public shorting a stock isn’t practically any different from John Q. Public going long on a stock. He’s just betting in the opposite direction.

The problem is that most hedge funds that are shorting stocks aren’t just shorting stocks. They are actively manipulating the market itself and driving investor sentiment where they want to go with timely lies and other trades designed to attack a stock’s price and drive it down.

While most of it is legal, it’s all shady AF. And some of it is illegal, and the SEC just doesn’t do anything.

A hedge fund can afford to spend $5M pre-market to create the appearance of momentum in the direction that they need. A retail investor can’t. A hedge fund has media contacts that they can call and make up rumors to that can impact a stock price. And they do it all the time.

Hedge fund behavior is the main reason why although I get the concept of short-selling as benign, it’s clearly become a tool for outright manipulation by large investors.
And in banks across the world
Christians, Moslems, Hindus, Jews
And every other race, creed, colour, tint or hue
Get down on their knees and pray
The raccoon and the groundhog neatly
Make up bags of change
But the monkey in the corner
Well he's slowly drifting out of range
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by noxiousdog »

RunningMn9 wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 9:58 am Hedge fund behavior is the main reason why although I get the concept of short-selling as benign, it’s clearly become a tool for outright manipulation by large investors.
But to what end? Certainly it's temporary. As Buffett would Ben Graham, In the short term the stock market is a voting machine, in the long term it's a weighing machine.

What is the actual impact from a hedge fund short selling... granting the real, but rare, situation of hostile takeovers?
Paingod wrote: A concerted attack to manipulate the market by short sellers on a business in order to kill its market value when discussing why people might not like short sellers is irrelevant?
Yes. Because it's an anecdote. That guy doesn't like it. Good for him. I don't like it when my stocks go down either.
gbasden wrote: OK, so do you believe that CEO compensation and wealth is completely divorced from the welfare of the workers that the corporation employs?
Yes, of course. There's a reason Warren Buffett has only been asked to sit on one compensation committee in his lifetime.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LordMortis »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:05 am What is the actual impact from a hedge fund short selling... granting the real, but rare, situation of hostile takeovers?
If it moves the market, then it creates investor and director concern and results in an attempt to change the direction of the company. It also gets the lawsuits pumping that need to be defended against. "If you invested more than 100,000 in x between these dates then contact the law offices of..."

Is that always bad? I doubt it. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know the formula for good to bad ratio.

Seeing all of these trust fund babies turn in to hedge fund tycoons and the beliefs they generally hold, I have little faith that they are generally trying equalize a reasonable valuation for a company by shorting them.
malchior
Posts: 24794
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:05 amYes. Because it's an anecdote. That guy doesn't like it. Good for him. I don't like it when my stocks go down either.
Sure but why are you completely discounting his experience? It's possible he could have harbored some irrational long-term grudge because his net worth temporarily went down 15-years ago. However, what he is talking about lines up with the reality of hedge fund market manipulation to some extent. Especially since much of it isn't illegal.
User avatar
LordMortis
Posts: 70101
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:26 pm

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LordMortis »

malchior wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:20 am
noxiousdog wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:05 amYes. Because it's an anecdote. That guy doesn't like it. Good for him. I don't like it when my stocks go down either.
Sure but why are you completely discounting his experience? It's possible he could have harbored some irrational long-term grudge because his net worth temporarily went down 15-years ago. However, what he is talking about lines up with the reality of hedge fund market manipulation to some extent. Especially since much of it isn't illegal.
Assuming the accuracy of his report, I don't like it when I get death threats and need to uproot because of them or have to explain to people who hold me accountable why I lost them billions or get involved in legal battles over lies designed to ruin me and my life's work.

(Though I look at short ratios as part of my personal discovery when trying to understand an equity and high shorts do actually scare me off in spite of balance sheets, growth models, earnings, etc... I learned a painful lesson early in my investment learning curve in Farrell Gas that bookkeepers can lie, SEC be damned and no one cares about the small investor when the lawsuit fly)
User avatar
Paingod
Posts: 13132
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2010 8:58 am

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Paingod »

noxiousdog wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:05 am
Paingod wrote: A concerted attack to manipulate the market by short sellers on a business in order to kill its market value when discussing why people might not like short sellers is irrelevant?
Yes. Because it's an anecdote. That guy doesn't like it. Good for him. I don't like it when my stocks go down either.
The guy wasn't an investor. He was the business owner. His company -not just his stock price- was almost destroyed by short sellers manipulating the market. His experience is not in isolation and happens to other businesses. The practice isn't legal, but they largely get away with it. That's what I'm offering as a reason why some people don't like short sellers.

The stance you're taking here is that the sky yesterday wasn't blue because someone only saw it and took pictures and they're anecdotally telling you about it?
Black Lives Matter

2021-01-20: The first good night's sleep I had in 4 years.
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by noxiousdog »

Paingod wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:31 am
noxiousdog wrote: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:05 am
Paingod wrote: A concerted attack to manipulate the market by short sellers on a business in order to kill its market value when discussing why people might not like short sellers is irrelevant?
Yes. Because it's an anecdote. That guy doesn't like it. Good for him. I don't like it when my stocks go down either.
The guy wasn't an investor. He was the business owner. His company -not just his stock price- was almost destroyed by short sellers manipulating the market. His experience is not in isolation and happens to other businesses. The practice isn't legal, but they largely get away with it. That's what I'm offering as a reason why some people don't like short sellers.

The stance you're taking here is that the sky yesterday wasn't blue because someone only saw it and took pictures and they're anecdotally telling you about it?
Well, yes, when we are talking about the entire global stock market, I'm discounting one guy's story. Just like when I get anecdotes about invisible sky gods.

Especially when there's not a logical connection. The value of a company in the stock market is quite often completely independent of the value of the company in reality. See: March 2020.

Did the price of stocks in March 2020 destroy the all the companies? It's a very accurate metaphor for COVID being a short selling hedge fund.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
User avatar
noxiousdog
Posts: 24627
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:27 pm
Contact:

Re: The Viral Economy

Post by noxiousdog »

Also, let's be clear: short selling did not almost destroy his business.
a highly-coordinated public relations and legal campaign against our company. Within months, press that ignored us began assailing us. We were sued over 100 times, and a federal government investigation was triggered that alarmed both our shareholders and customers causing real damage.
Slander and libel nearly destroyed his business.
Black Lives Matter

"To wield Grond, the mighty hammer of the Federal Government, is to be intoxicated with power beyond what you and I can reckon (though I figure we can ball park it pretty good with computers and maths). Need to tunnel through a mountain? Grond. Kill a mighty ogre? Grond. Hangnail? Grond. Spider? Grond (actually, that's a legit use, moreso than the rest)." - Peacedog
Post Reply