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The Viral Economy

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malchior
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:53 pm
malchior wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:48 pmHonestly this is important. Biden is dealing with sagging performance ratings. Anything he can take credit for and make strides on is crucial now. If that means presents under the tree, so be it. As long as they make sure everyone knows who should get the credit.
Oh, I totally get it, but I thought it needed to be mocked. (finger pointing directed at myself as well, FWIW).
Same here!

FWIW I think he is getting a little panicky about Jimmy Carter with people throwing around terms like stagflation. Which is honestly a completely mismatched model for what is going on.
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Carpet_pissr
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

malchior wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:54 pm By the way - a bit of a premature declaration of victory yet but gives you a sense of things. Notice the first spike is inverse to the big dip when the pandemic hit. It basically cancels out. If prices bounce around a bit, this will indeed look transitory. Also, that big spike was mostly energy/car prices/airline tickets. All real components but it wasn't very broad or uniform like we saw in the 70s event.

I guess I should click on that to see if more info, but come on, Paul Krugman!? No source? And percent change of WHAT, exactly? CPI? Just goods? Grocery? Could be anything.

Boy am I salty today, but dammit, when attempting a slam dunk (which is what I perceive here), might want to make sure you have a strong ass argument. Which I can't even see here bc the damn presentation of the so-called data is so weak and ambiguous (or at the least, poorly cited and described).
malchior
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 1:11 pm
malchior wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:54 pm By the way - a bit of a premature declaration of victory yet but gives you a sense of things. Notice the first spike is inverse to the big dip when the pandemic hit. It basically cancels out. If prices bounce around a bit, this will indeed look transitory. Also, that big spike was mostly energy/car prices/airline tickets. All real components but it wasn't very broad or uniform like we saw in the 70s event.

I guess I should click on that to see if more info, but come on, Paul Krugman!? No source? And percent change of WHAT, exactly? CPI? Just goods? Grocery? Could be anything.
It's from FRED and it's headline CPI.
Boy am I salty today, but dammit, when attempting a slam dunk (which is what I perceive here), might want to make sure you have a strong ass argument. Which I can't even see here bc the damn presentation of the so-called data is so weak and ambiguous (or at the least, poorly cited and described).
He is making a quick observation but as someone who watches this stuff regularly I instantly knew what he was talking about. Sometimes the eggheads really don't know that most people need a bit more.
malchior
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

I just grabbed this to give the wide view but you can clearly see the section he picked out on the right side. Still it makes the whole 70s comparison really...dumb and oversold. That is what people are panicking about. I caution people not to fall for it...yet at least. We need way more evidence.

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Kraken
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kraken »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:14 pm Also, why not the East Coast? I get that LA is the biggest port, but Newark/NY is just as big (or very close) as LA in terms of import volume IIRC from my previous life's career 5ish years ago.
Because there's a continent in the way? Asian trade is mostly west coast shipping unless they want to navigate the canal.
malchior
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Kraken wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:35 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:14 pm Also, why not the East Coast? I get that LA is the biggest port, but Newark/NY is just as big (or very close) as LA in terms of import volume IIRC from my previous life's career 5ish years ago.
Because there's a continent in the way? Asian trade is mostly west coast shipping unless they want to navigate the canal.
They widened the canal a few years back but some of the ships are too big even then for the canal. Those ships would also have an issue with draft to get into the relatively shallow ports in the NYC/Philly area. They just rebuilt a few bridges to try to accommodate but I've been regaled with tales of ships pumping out their bilges and partially unloading to barges to get high enough to make it into the port.
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Carpet_pissr
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Kraken wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:35 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:14 pm Also, why not the East Coast? I get that LA is the biggest port, but Newark/NY is just as big (or very close) as LA in terms of import volume IIRC from my previous life's career 5ish years ago.
Because there's a continent in the way? Asian trade is mostly west coast shipping unless they want to navigate the canal.
I’m not following. The same (or within a couple of percentage points) volume of goods come into Newark/NY as LA.

Maybe the answer is as simple as ‘they already are working 24/7 at the other major ports.’
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:02 pm
Kraken wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:35 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:14 pm Also, why not the East Coast? I get that LA is the biggest port, but Newark/NY is just as big (or very close) as LA in terms of import volume IIRC from my previous life's career 5ish years ago.
Because there's a continent in the way? Asian trade is mostly west coast shipping unless they want to navigate the canal.
I’m not following. The same (or within a couple of percentage points) volume of goods come into Newark/NY as LA.

Maybe the answer is as simple as ‘they already are working 24/7 at the other major ports.’
That's accurate. It looks like only one port on the West Coast was 24x4. They don't typically run 24 hours on Friday - Sunday. It also turns out from the story that some of the constraints were artificial. And one industry insider says this is just bullshit.

This Washington Post story has the details.
Administration officials promise a “90-day sprint” to clear a path for cargo. Several companies participating in the White House event, including Walmart, made “specific volume commitments” about containers they will remove from California docks. Leaders of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union have agreed to work longer hours, provided individual terminal operators pay up.

The president said today’s announcement had “the potential to be a game changer” in unclogging the nation’s supply lines.

But the extended hours the administration is touting represent something less than the full round-the-clock operations that are typical of the world’s most advanced cargo-moving facilities.

The Port of Long Beach, which makes up one half of the nation’s chief import gateway, began a pilot program last month of late-night and predawn work. An administration official said Tuesday that Long Beach had “already gone to 24-7″ and Los Angeles would be “meeting that effort.” But only one of the Long Beach port’s six container terminals works 24 hours a day, and it does so only Monday through Thursday, according to Noel Hacegaba, the port’s deputy executive director.

The president said the L.A. port, which is adjacent to the Long Beach facility, would be open for 60 additional hours each week. But Phillip Sanfield, a port spokesman said he could not say how many L.A. terminals will now begin operating around the clock. And Gene Seroka, executive director of the L.A. port, said on twitter that “operational details are being discussed and worked out with the supply chain stakeholders.”

Some industry executives described the administration’s latest initiative, which the White House billed as “nearly doubling” the port’s cargo-handling hours, as incomplete. Matt Schrap, chief executive of the Harbor Trucking Association, whose members service the ports, said the measure will make a “big difference” only if terminals abandon requirements for truckers to return a specific type of empty shipping container before collecting a full one.

And Craig Grossgart, senior vice president for global ocean at SEKO Logistics, said: “It will accomplish zero. It’s just window dressing.”
malchior
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Lol. I got it straight from the horse's mouth about 10 minutes ago. I asked my FIL about this. The concept of "24/7" is fluid. Here in our ports (which aren't backed up right now) trucks can't move containers except M-F during the day. Now ships might show up 24/7 and containers might be staged at odd times but it ain't getting pulled by truck outside those hours. It doesn't mean stuff won't get loaded onto trains, dumped into storage, transferred to other ships, etc.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:02 pm
Kraken wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:35 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:14 pm Also, why not the East Coast? I get that LA is the biggest port, but Newark/NY is just as big (or very close) as LA in terms of import volume IIRC from my previous life's career 5ish years ago.
Because there's a continent in the way? Asian trade is mostly west coast shipping unless they want to navigate the canal.
I’m not following. The same (or within a couple of percentage points) volume of goods come into Newark/NY as LA.
It's rather a lot farther to sail.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

The Arctic should be ice-free in a while.
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Jaymann
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Jaymann »

Isgrimnur wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:43 pm The Arctic should be ice-free in a while.
Do you think that 17th century explorers who searched in vain for a northwest passage would be impressed that 21st century man fucking created one.
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Carpet_pissr
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Kraken wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:14 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:02 pm
Kraken wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 3:35 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:14 pm Also, why not the East Coast? I get that LA is the biggest port, but Newark/NY is just as big (or very close) as LA in terms of import volume IIRC from my previous life's career 5ish years ago.
Because there's a continent in the way? Asian trade is mostly west coast shipping unless they want to navigate the canal.
I’m not following. The same (or within a couple of percentage points) volume of goods come into Newark/NY as LA.
It's rather a lot farther to sail.
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I think you misunderstood my question. I’m pretty aware of the geography. :p

My question (more of a musing, really, I’m not THAT interested) was not why most goods from China come into the US via LA, but why the Biden focus on the LA port (vs others, specifically Newark, which is practically as big).

I would think to get things REALLY flowing, logistically, you make this kind of push with the biggest ports on both coasts, not just one.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

Jaymann wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:52 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:43 pm The Arctic should be ice-free in a while.
Do you think that 17th century explorers who searched in vain for a northwest passage would be impressed that 21st century man fucking created one.
Or horrified.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:57 pm My question (more of a musing, really, I’m not THAT interested) was not why most goods from China come into the US via LA, but why the Biden focus on the LA port (vs others, specifically Newark, which is practically as big).

I would think to get things REALLY flowing, logistically, you make this kind of push with the biggest ports on both coasts, not just one.
LA port officially has the worst backups right now, so I'm guessing this is more of a "we gotta start somewhere" type situation. But yeah, the East Coast isn't faring much better. NY Times article on the shipping crisis (paywall) focusing on the port of Savannah:
It has come to this in the Great Supply Chain Disruption: They are running out of places to put things at one of the largest ports in the United States [Savannah]. As major ports contend with a staggering pileup of cargo, what once seemed like a temporary phenomenon — a traffic jam that would eventually dissipate — is increasingly viewed as a new reality that could require a substantial refashioning of the world’s shipping infrastructure.

As the Savannah port works through the backlog, [the executive director of the Georgia Ports Authority] has reluctantly forced ships to wait at sea for more than nine days. On a recent afternoon, more than 20 ships were stuck in the queue, anchored up to 17 miles off the coast in the Atlantic. Such lines have become common around the globe, from the more than 50 ships marooned last week in the Pacific near Los Angeles to smaller numbers bobbing off terminals in the New York area, to hundreds waylaid off ports in China.

The turmoil in the shipping industry and the broader crisis in supply chains is showing no signs of relenting. It stands as a gnawing source of worry throughout the global economy, challenging once-hopeful assumptions of a vigorous return to growth as vaccines limit the spread of the pandemic.
malchior
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:57 pmMy question (more of a musing, really, I’m not THAT interested) was not why most goods from China come into the US via LA, but why the Biden focus on the LA port (vs others, specifically Newark, which is practically as big).

I would think to get things REALLY flowing, logistically, you make this kind of push with the biggest ports on both coasts, not just one.
Newark is not backed up at all. There is no line. Governor Murphy said they are keeping an eye on it and expect issues to crop up though.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Kraken »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:57 pm
My question (more of a musing, really, I’m not THAT interested) was not why most goods from China come into the US via LA, but why the Biden focus on the LA port (vs others, specifically Newark, which is practically as big).

I would think to get things REALLY flowing, logistically, you make this kind of push with the biggest ports on both coasts, not just one.
Thanks for clarifying; I didn't mean to condescend. While browsing for that graphic I did learn that China also has Atlantic shipping routes that go around the Cape of Good Fear or whatever South Africa is called. Still a bloody long way.

A few weeks ago I edited a story for MIT Tech Review about how AI, blockchain, 5G, and autonomous robotics are beginning to transform shipping. None of that has anything to do with this stubborn crisis, and the future of supply chain logistics seemed academic at the time. Now I'm getting interested.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

I'm just glad we've moved to low-sulfur fuel for al those ships.
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malchior
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Isgrimnur wrote: Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:31 pm I'm just glad we've moved to low-sulfur fuel for al those ships.
Maybe they'll eventually even have sails...again!
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

Via CNN:
"Border controls and mobility restrictions, unavailability of a global vaccine pass, and pent-up demand from being stuck at home have combined for a perfect storm where global production will be hampered because deliveries are not made in time, costs and prices will rise and GDP growth worldwide will not be as robust as a result," Moody's wrote in the report.

Moody's said the "weakest link" may be the shortage of truck drivers — an issue that has contributed to congestion at ports and caused gas stations in the United Kingdom to run dry. Unfortunately, Moody's warned there are "dark clouds ahead" because several factors make overcoming the supply constraints particularly challenging.
But this right here? Just...ugh
First, the firm pointed to differences in how countries are fighting Covid, with China aiming for zero cases while the United States is "more willing to live with Covid-19 as an endemic disease."

"This presents a serious challenge to harmonizing the rules and regulations by which transport workers move in and out of ports and hubs around the world," the analysts wrote.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by YellowKing »

That's the one thing non-democracies have going for them. You need people to do something, they're gonna fucking do it. Or else.
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