There is no interest in making any of this happen; it's all theater.The framework that Manchin is now trashing was one he negotiated more directly with the White House than probably any other single Senator.
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Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!
Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus
- Smoove_B
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Maybe next year, maybe no go
- pr0ner
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Please define "creamed in Virginia" for me, someone who actually gets to vote in Virginia tomorrow.
Hodor.
- Octavious
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Losing is creamed. Even if it's one vote. So probably not an accurate statement. Feels like all the momentum is on the R side. I'd love to be wrong.
Capitalism tries for a delicate balance: It attempts to work things out so that everyone gets just enough stuff to keep them from getting violent and trying to take other people’s stuff.
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- El Guapo
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
The thing is that we're probably screwed even if Youngkin wins tomorrow. People are going to put a ton of importance on the result as some augur for 2024, and for sure it is of consequence whether Virginia has a trumpist as its governor, but even if McAuliffe wins by a healthy margin it's not going to materially change the dozen or so reasons why we're boned.
I guess I'm not sure whether that helps or not.
I guess I'm not sure whether that helps or not.
Black Lives Matter.
- Octavious
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
We're likely screwed no matter what but losing Virginia is going to look badddddd.
Capitalism tries for a delicate balance: It attempts to work things out so that everyone gets just enough stuff to keep them from getting violent and trying to take other people’s stuff.
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- pr0ner
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Sure, momentum is with Youngkin, but the race is tight, and losing does not exactly equal creamed.
Unfortunately, it's not like McAuliffe has run a campaign guaranteed to win here this time (he didn't win by a lot in 2013, either), and Virginia as a whole is not a liberal stronghold.
Hodor.
- Octavious
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
My brother must be on a business trip this week lol. Malchior did you die?
Capitalism tries for a delicate balance: It attempts to work things out so that everyone gets just enough stuff to keep them from getting violent and trying to take other people’s stuff.
Shameless plug for my website: www.nettphoto.com
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
This is correct. I am in CA and can't care about this right now after a 15 hour work day. Still I am unsurprised by the turn of events. I have been operating from an assumption that Manchin was a garbage human. He has proved it out over and over.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Putting aside the dumb wealth framing, assholes chasing Senate assholes around is a bad new trend.
- Blackhawk
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
"Tried to run us over."
Spoiler:
(˙pǝsɹǝʌǝɹ uǝǝq sɐɥ ʎʇıʌɐɹƃ ʃɐuosɹǝd ʎW)
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Big time. Still the serious undertone is that we are seeing people getting more focused on their "targets" of ire. As more pressure builds, I fear one of these encounters turns into a violent incident. It worries me since this system is a tinderbox.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
In other news, there is a good chance the BBB and BIF plans pass in the House today. I expect the reconciliation bill will languish in the Senate but in the end the progressive blockade accomplished little. As expected. Manchin/Sinema (and by extention the super wealthy) win again. But that works in a world where they have white, uneducated women chasing the specter of CRT out of classrooms across the nation.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
The Democrats fly off the rails! Now the moderates in the House at the 11th hour are demanding CBO scoring of BBB or *they won't vote*. You can't make this stuff up. I intentionally chose the most ironic response just because it's full on 'our nation is clown shoes' time.
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
If someone did that to a police officer, in the unlikely event that they survived to go to trial, they'd be charged with all the things.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- LordMortis
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Manchin is not exactly in my top five of favorite people but attempting to prevent egress/ingress is not something I would consider (protected) protesting. I consider that a hazard.
- Isgrimnur
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
As it's not a public space or owned by one of the protesters, they're absolutely trespassing.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Criminality plus let's chase and block him in at his home is a super solid strategy for advocating change.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Simple messaging like this months ago would have been fucking helpful. Instead they let the conversation be bogged down by huge numbers and stupid in-fighting.
- Zarathud
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
In-fighting is pretty bad now. Pelosi is holding a vote on the rule for considering the reconciliation bill but may not have the votes.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
"I don't stand by anything." - Trump
“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.” - John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867
“It is the impractical things in this tumultuous hell-scape of a world that matter most. A book, a name, chicken soup. They help us remember that, even in our darkest hour, life is still to be savored.” - Poe, Altered Carbon
- Skinypupy
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
And every one of them will point to the others and say "If only they would get in line, then something would get done!" All while absolutely nothing continues to get done and every lever of power is handed back to the GOP...who could not have asked for a better gift at this particular moment in history.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
- pr0ner
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
I'm thinking the Democrats in disarray meme is not all that unfair at the moment.
- Defiant
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
And it looks like Republicans in the House took my advice to heart and voted for the bipartisan bill by enough that had they not, it would have failed, because six progressive Democrats voted against it. Only, they only did it after the Democrats have repeatedly shown them, from what I can tell, to be more incompetent than they have ever been before - well played, Republicans, well played.Defiant wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:35 am I think I've said this before, but if Republicans were smart, they'd back the bipartisan bill by enough that the progressives couldn't vote it down. Which would further divide the two sides, and almost make Republicans look good. Well, look less thoroughly evil.
It hurts those progressives by removing their leverage, further divided Democrats, and has Republicans save the day, as it were. OTOH, it does mean that they gave Biden a win.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
It also gives the corporate Dems an out if/when they pull the BBB ball away. They'll possibly claim the Progressives broke the deal. Even then, it still feels to me that the BBB bill will happen but the GOP just handed Manchin even more leverage to squeeze more out of it.
- El Guapo
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Yeah I would say the upshot is that the absolute worst case scenario - neither bill passes, McConnell cackles with glee, and the Democratic caucus starts competing in the Hunger Games - is off the table. Further, I don't think Manchin / Sinema / House "moderates" will want to fully kill the reconciliation bill, since there are things they'll want and its bad PR for them if they deliver nothing. But they'll have the leverage to cut it down a lot.
Best case scenario is that Manchin's pressure leads them to have half a dozen permanent programs rather than a dozen programs that will suddenly end during Trump's second term, which is what they should do anyway. But I'm not holding my breath.
Best case scenario is that Manchin's pressure leads them to have half a dozen permanent programs rather than a dozen programs that will suddenly end during Trump's second term, which is what they should do anyway. But I'm not holding my breath.
Black Lives Matter.
- Smoove_B
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
It is rather interesting that the focus seems to be on how the Democrats barely passed the bill and it wasn't even fully supported. Instead the focus seems to be on how it was necessary for the Republicans to lend support, somehow painting them as saviors. Why, I wonder, doesn't the media largely focus on just how many members of the GOP once again voted against something most Americans wanted?
Like...the nation is literally and figuratively falling to pieces and there's a sizeable chunk of Congress that is doing everything they can to stop even the most basic investments in our infrastructure.
Like...the nation is literally and figuratively falling to pieces and there's a sizeable chunk of Congress that is doing everything they can to stop even the most basic investments in our infrastructure.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
The honest truth seems to be that the biggest media players are not really healthy institutions. They suffer from much of the same rot as our institutions. Also, they are incentivized and driven by competition with social media to draw eyes and clicks. And even then it is chock full of just flawed analysis.
Chris Cillizza as editor-at-large of CNN? I mean really. The NY Times has become a parody of itself half the time as the Pitchbot keeps pointing out with sharpness. The airwaves are just loaded with pundits who occasionally are helpful but I'd guess 80% or more are not. It's an information wasteland out there.
Chris Cillizza as editor-at-large of CNN? I mean really. The NY Times has become a parody of itself half the time as the Pitchbot keeps pointing out with sharpness. The airwaves are just loaded with pundits who occasionally are helpful but I'd guess 80% or more are not. It's an information wasteland out there.
- Pyperkub
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
If that happens, just use reconciliation to pass voting rights reform this year.malchior wrote:It also gives the corporate Dems an out if/when they pull the BBB ball away. They'll possibly claim the Progressives broke the deal. Even then, it still feels to me that the BBB bill will happen but the GOP just handed Manchin even more leverage to squeeze more out of it.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- Defiant
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
I don't think they can do that, because, IIUC, reconciliation bills have to be budgetary bills (as determined by the Senate Parliamentarian)Pyperkub wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 1:37 pmIf that happens, just use reconciliation to pass voting rights reform this year.malchior wrote:It also gives the corporate Dems an out if/when they pull the BBB ball away. They'll possibly claim the Progressives broke the deal. Even then, it still feels to me that the BBB bill will happen but the GOP just handed Manchin even more leverage to squeeze more out of it.
- Alefroth
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
That's correct, but they wouldn't even be able to pass it if it was allowed.Defiant wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 2:25 pmI don't think they can do that, because, IIUC, reconciliation bills have to be budgetary bills (as determined by the Senate Parliamentarian)Pyperkub wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 1:37 pmIf that happens, just use reconciliation to pass voting rights reform this year.malchior wrote:It also gives the corporate Dems an out if/when they pull the BBB ball away. They'll possibly claim the Progressives broke the deal. Even then, it still feels to me that the BBB bill will happen but the GOP just handed Manchin even more leverage to squeeze more out of it.
- Smoove_B
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Just for the record:
These are the 13 GOP members that supported the infrastructure bill. The two NJ representatives are garbage people (Van Drew in particular), so I'm not really sure why they supported it. But more interesting to me is who isn't on that list? Liz Cheney. Funny that.Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania
Rep. Andrew Garbarino of New York
Rep. Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio
Rep. John Katko of New York
Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis of New York
Rep. David McKinley of West Virginia
Rep. Tom Reed of New York
Rep. Chris Smith of New Jersey
Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan
Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey
Rep. Don Young of Alaska
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
+1Defiant wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 2:25 pmI don't think they can do that, because, IIUC, reconciliation bills have to be budgetary bills (as determined by the Senate Parliamentarian)Pyperkub wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 1:37 pmIf that happens, just use reconciliation to pass voting rights reform this year.malchior wrote:It also gives the corporate Dems an out if/when they pull the BBB ball away. They'll possibly claim the Progressives broke the deal. Even then, it still feels to me that the BBB bill will happen but the GOP just handed Manchin even more leverage to squeeze more out of it.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
I imagine Pelosi traded them something in return - perhaps they'll add something into the BBB bill for them.
- Zaxxon
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
- pr0ner
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Neither bill passes? Which other bill are you talking about? The infrastructure bill already passed the Senate (69-30 was the vote!) with a ton of Republican support, and is off to Biden for his signature.El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 11:39 am Yeah I would say the upshot is that the absolute worst case scenario - neither bill passes, McConnell cackles with glee, and the Democratic caucus starts competing in the Hunger Games - is off the table. Further, I don't think Manchin / Sinema / House "moderates" will want to fully kill the reconciliation bill, since there are things they'll want and its bad PR for them if they deliver nothing. But they'll have the leverage to cut it down a lot.
Best case scenario is that Manchin's pressure leads them to have half a dozen permanent programs rather than a dozen programs that will suddenly end during Trump's second term, which is what they should do anyway. But I'm not holding my breath.
Hodor.
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
FWIW my read on what El Guapo is saying is that since the bill passed the (very unlikely) disaster possibility that neither passes is now off the table.pr0ner wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:57 pmNeither bill passes? Which other bill are you talking about? The infrastructure bill already passed the Senate (69-30 was the vote!) with a ton of Republican support, and is off to Biden for his signature.El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 11:39 am Yeah I would say the upshot is that the absolute worst case scenario - neither bill passes, McConnell cackles with glee, and the Democratic caucus starts competing in the Hunger Games - is off the table. Further, I don't think Manchin / Sinema / House "moderates" will want to fully kill the reconciliation bill, since there are things they'll want and its bad PR for them if they deliver nothing. But they'll have the leverage to cut it down a lot.
Best case scenario is that Manchin's pressure leads them to have half a dozen permanent programs rather than a dozen programs that will suddenly end during Trump's second term, which is what they should do anyway. But I'm not holding my breath.
Last edited by malchior on Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- pr0ner
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Well, as I said to El Guapo above, 19 Republican senators already voted for the bill. There's a reason the media kept calling it the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill. It's just wild that some House GOPers were ready to paint their Republican colleagues as traitors for voting for something that already had decent Republican support in Congress.Smoove_B wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:04 pm It is rather interesting that the focus seems to be on how the Democrats barely passed the bill and it wasn't even fully supported. Instead the focus seems to be on how it was necessary for the Republicans to lend support, somehow painting them as saviors. Why, I wonder, doesn't the media largely focus on just how many members of the GOP once again voted against something most Americans wanted?
Like...the nation is literally and figuratively falling to pieces and there's a sizeable chunk of Congress that is doing everything they can to stop even the most basic investments in our infrastructure.
Hodor.
- El Guapo
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Ummm yeah which I why I said that that possibility is "off the table". I.e., it is no longer possible for neither bill (e.g., neither reconciliation nor infrastructure) to pass.pr0ner wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:57 pmNeither bill passes? Which other bill are you talking about? The infrastructure bill already passed the Senate (69-30 was the vote!) with a ton of Republican support, and is off to Biden for his signature.El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 11:39 am Yeah I would say the upshot is that the absolute worst case scenario - neither bill passes, McConnell cackles with glee, and the Democratic caucus starts competing in the Hunger Games - is off the table. Further, I don't think Manchin / Sinema / House "moderates" will want to fully kill the reconciliation bill, since there are things they'll want and its bad PR for them if they deliver nothing. But they'll have the leverage to cut it down a lot.
Best case scenario is that Manchin's pressure leads them to have half a dozen permanent programs rather than a dozen programs that will suddenly end during Trump's second term, which is what they should do anyway. But I'm not holding my breath.
Black Lives Matter.
- pr0ner
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Re: Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation?
Ah, yes, after re-reading his post again, I see what you're saying.malchior wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:00 pmFWIW my read on what El Guapo is saying is that since the bill passed the (very unlikely) disaster possibility that neither passes is now off the table.pr0ner wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:57 pmNeither bill passes? Which other bill are you talking about? The infrastructure bill already passed the Senate (69-30 was the vote!) with a ton of Republican support, and is off to Biden for his signature.El Guapo wrote: ↑Sat Nov 06, 2021 11:39 am Yeah I would say the upshot is that the absolute worst case scenario - neither bill passes, McConnell cackles with glee, and the Democratic caucus starts competing in the Hunger Games - is off the table. Further, I don't think Manchin / Sinema / House "moderates" will want to fully kill the reconciliation bill, since there are things they'll want and its bad PR for them if they deliver nothing. But they'll have the leverage to cut it down a lot.
Best case scenario is that Manchin's pressure leads them to have half a dozen permanent programs rather than a dozen programs that will suddenly end during Trump's second term, which is what they should do anyway. But I'm not holding my breath.
Hodor.