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Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Blackhawk
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Blackhawk »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:19 pm A little over a year ago the message was that the forthcoming vaccine would end this. It wasn't untrue but it was a horrible message because it left out the part that vaccination rate needed to be high and continued non-vaccine mitigations were required. Instead it was, "hang on a bit longer and get ready for normal in Q1/Q2!!!"
Part of that was Hollywood. We've long since established that the creation of the vaccine = the end of the problem. It's a quick jab and everything is solved with time left for commercials.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yes, and we've now moved onto to the magic pill (that I keep seeing the usual suspects demanding on social media) that will cut symptoms and hospitalizations. But guess what? In order to take the pill, you need to know (1) you've been exposed and (2) you're in the early stages off illness. That doesn't just magically happen. It requires tracing and testing. Or more realistically, people calling their doctors and demanding access to the pills.

We are a nation of responders. We have limited capacity and interest in preparation and prevention and it's going to be our ultimate undoing.

Also, if I have to hear another person discuss how this is an endemic disease now, I'm might snap. Going to a meeting in person tomorrow night (because having it remotely wouldn't make any sense as we head into another spike) and woe unto someone saying "endemic". As has been pointed out so eloquently by others, if hospitalizations and deaths are spiking, you're not experiencing endemic scenario, period. By definition alone, that's pandemic, but because its happening everywhere, it's pandemic.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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An endemic pandemic?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Blackhawk wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:21 pm An endemic pandemic?
If we're seriously normalizing and accepting ~1000 deaths and ~90K cases a day nationwide as our "endemic" level, then I don't want to live on this planet anymore.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Who wants to tell him?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Not me.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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:D

This thread could also be titled "The Death of Hope - The Story of Smoove_B in Three Acts"
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:26 pm
Blackhawk wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:21 pm An endemic pandemic?
If we're seriously normalizing and accepting ~1000 deaths and ~90K cases a day nationwide as our "endemic" level, then I don't want to live on this planet anymore.

C'mon, it's only 1/3rd of Antietam. I mean we're barely at Battle of Manilla levels. Are we even trying to fight for freedom here?
Spoiler:
Antietam was the bloodiest day in American history, with a combined tally of 22,717 dead, wounded, or missing.
2,108 killed (Union)
1,567 killed (Confederacy)
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Pfft. The War on COVID is officially the deadliest war in US history. Now we're going to have to start adding wars together to get dramatic comparisons.

Give it another year at this rate and we'll exceed all US wars combined.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Blackhawk wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 4:35 pmGive it another year at this rate and we'll exceed all US wars combined.
Why so optimistic?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Blackhawk »

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 4:40 pm
Blackhawk wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 4:35 pmGive it another year at this rate and we'll exceed all US wars combined.
Why so optimistic?
And again... ;)
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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We're already past combat deaths for every single conflict combined.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Things are dialing up in Massachusetts.


New hospital capacity order from Baker admin: "Effective November 29, 2021, any hospital or hospital system that has limited capacity must begin to reduce non-essential, non-urgent scheduled procedures to ensure adequate hospital capacity for immediate healthcare needs."
Stay safe MAOOers. Get yerselves boostered.

If you read up, it's not COVID-19 related (exactly), but COVID-19 is going to make it worse.
Health and Human Services Secretary Marylou Sudders: "The current strain on hospital capacity is due to longer than average hospital stays and significant workforce shortages, separate and apart from the challenges brought on by COVID."
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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A story in two acts.
(If confused, look at the dates)
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Did it really have to be at an equestrian center?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Because if that was in the movie, no one would believe it. :lol:

In more serious news - Michigan. JFC


Michigan:
1) It's a straight line up
2) It's occurring in cases and deaths.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:22 pm Things are dialing up in Massachusetts.

Stay safe MAOOers. Get yerselves boostered.

If you read up, it's not COVID-19 related (exactly), but COVID-19 is going to make it worse.
I follow the news closely. Last week we snapped back to the same restrictions we observed last winter -- no dining out, no socializing, masks when we have to go out. We won't even think about normalcy again until next spring. And we get boosted on Friday.

My niece is a nurse at Mercy in Muskegon MI, which is chronically one of the worst-hit hospitals there. IDK how she soldiers on, day in and day out. Things are trending bad in MA, but thanks to a much higher vax rate we won't get Michigan-bad.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:49 pm Because if that was in the movie, no one would believe it. :lol:

In more serious news - Michigan. JFC


Michigan:
1) It's a straight line up
2) It's occurring in cases and deaths.
:cry: Post Halloween. Just remember, we are a bellwether for what is to come for most everyone else. We have been since the beginning. It really starts tonight. Spread is already out of control, hospitals and testing is overloaded, the bars are open for the biggest bar day of the year, the masks are off, and it's friggen cold. See you in about 2 to three 3 weeks. :cry:
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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US response to Covid has ultimately been like our response to school shootings: Once we decided unimaginable loss was a price worth paying for an imagined ideal of freedom, the number of deaths ceased to matter. We’d trade a million lives for our need to do exactly what we want.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I mean, I'm not sure it's a hypothetical 'we'd' at this point, right? We are going to trade a million lives before this thing is over.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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LordMortis wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:42 am Just remember, we are a bellwether for what is to come for most everyone else. We have been since the beginning. It really starts tonight. Spread is already out of control, hospitals and testing is overloaded, the bars are open for the biggest bar day of the year, the masks are off, and it's friggen cold. See you in about 2 to three 3 weeks. :cry:
Not everyone. You're 54% vaccinated; we're 71%. That won't make a dramatic difference in case numbers, which are indeed rising briskly, but we'll have far fewer hospitalizations and deaths here. Approx. 1/3 of the hospitalized covid patients in MA are vaccinated, but that's to be expected as the unvaxxed pool shrinks. That is, if we were 100% vaxxed, then 100% of our cases would be among the vaxxed. So if 71% of the population account for 33% of the hospitalizations (and very few deaths), that's still evidence that vaccines work -- but not that they're a Get Out of Covid Free card.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Zaxxon wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:28 am I mean, I'm not sure it's a hypothetical 'we'd' at this point, right? We are going to trade a million lives before this thing is over.
We absolutely already have - when the official numbers are revised (years from now), I have no doubts we'll see it. Projections I saw for this next phase have us around 810K deaths the week before Xmas, so 825K official deaths isn't out of the question for year end.

Related:


NEW: European CDC warns potential burden of disease from COVID-19 will be "very high" in December and January unless urgent measures are taken
"Urgent measures". I'd love to see a discussion about that one - what we'd consider in that category as of 11/24/21.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Kraken wrote: Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:29 am Not everyone. You're 54% vaccinated; we're 71%. That won't make a dramatic difference in case numbers, which are indeed rising briskly, but we'll have far fewer hospitalizations and deaths here. Approx. 1/3 of the hospitalized covid patients in MA are vaccinated, but that's to be expected as the unvaxxed pool shrinks. That is, if we were 100% vaxxed, then 100% of our cases would be among the vaxxed. So if 71% of the population account for 33% of the hospitalizations (and very few deaths), that's still evidence that vaccines work -- but not that they're a Get Out of Covid Free card.
All that is true, but the kicker goes back to what I'd mentioned earlier. The overall state vaccination level is one thing, but if you dig down into your local counties and/or regions, the actual vaccination rate is going to be higher or lower. So in practice, when this next surge ramps up, it's going to disproportionately impact the parts of your state with lower vaccination coverage. And from that earlier article, those regions are likely to be more rural and without adequate hospital / medical coverage. So what could happen is the rural areas are going to quickly get overwhelmed with their ability to respond (medically) and they're going to start diverting their COVID-19 patients to the more urban areas of your state that have hospitals that can handle the increased surge demand. Which of course impacts that hospital's ability to respond to the community (area/region) they normally serve.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Ian and I just went in for another COVID test. We had ours last Wednesday (negative), and Caiden had his on Thursday (positive.) Once he finishes his quarantine (Sunday is his last day), we will wait three days, then Michelle, Ian, and I will all go get tested again (that should be a week from today.) If we're negative, I'm getting the very first available boosters for myself, Ian, and Caiden. It won't be a long wait. Michelle already got hers (she was eligible before we were due to being a healthcare worker.)
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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That's all good news - and I'm glad he's not experiencing any symptoms. It awful about his surgery though.

In other news, more data coming in:


“We are in the early stages of what will be a substantial fifth wave” by @JamieSmythF
@caitlinsgilbert With low vaccination % and waning, we are far less protected than countries in Europe experiencing a surge
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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The more I think about it, the more I think it's time to go to the store and buy 4 dozen eggs, several pounds of rice, 10 pounds of frozen ground beef, 10 pounds of potatoes, and a buncha cans abeans, so I can reduce grocery shopping to pretty much nothing in to January. It really is time to isolate back down to in work as little as possible, M&D in open doors and windowed house, gaming with select vaxxed friends. I've been able to stay out of the grocer for a month + at a time and it's time to return to that.

Work really wants to do a holiday lunch on the 20th of Dec. I'm trying to figure out of i can go from in and out, no drinking, masked when not eating to excusing myself. I hate to be that guy but we're knee deep in shit and the masses behave as if we're swimming in crystal clear waters.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yes, do that. Plus, who knows - big snow might come and you could be waylaid.

We hit another not-great milestone this week:
As of Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had recorded 386,233 deaths involving Covid-19 in 2021, compared with 385,343 in 2020. The final number for this year will be higher, not only because there is more than a month left but because it takes time for local agencies to report deaths to the C.D.C.

Covid-19 has also accounted for a higher percentage of U.S. deaths this year than it did last year: about 13 percent compared with 11 percent.
Enlarge Image
Experts say the higher death toll is a result of a confluence of factors: most crucially lower-than-needed vaccination rates, but also the relaxation of everyday precautions, like masks and social distancing, and the rise of the highly contagious Delta variant.

Essentially, public health experts said, many Americans are behaving as though Covid-19 is now a manageable, endemic disease rather than a crisis — a transition that will happen eventually but has not happened yet.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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NY Times

G.O.P. Fights Covid Mandates, Then Blames Biden as Cases Rise

Over eight hours last Thursday night and into Friday morning, Representative Kevin McCarthy of California hit on many issues as he spoke on the House floor in an unsuccessful effort to thwart House passage of President Biden’s social safety net and climate change bill. But among his most audacious assertions was that Mr. Biden was to blame for the country’s failure to quell the pandemic.

Mr. McCarthy used this line of attack even as members of his own Republican Party have spent months flouting mask ordinances and blocking the president’s vaccine mandates, and the party’s base has undermined vaccination drives while rallying around those who refuse the vaccine. Intensive care units and morgues have been strained to capacity by the unvaccinated, a demographic dominated by those who voted last year for President Donald J. Trump.

As of mid-September, 90 percent of adult Democrats had been vaccinated, compared with 58 percent of adult Republicans.

Yet Mr. McCarthy, the House Republican leader, pressed his point: “I took President Biden at his word; I took him at his word when he said he was going to get Covid under control,” he declared in the dead of night. “Unfortunately, more Americans have died this year than last year under Covid.”

As cases surge once again in some parts of the country, Republicans have hit on a new line of attack: The president has failed on a central campaign promise, to tame the pandemic that his predecessor systematically downplayed. Democrats are incredulous, dismissing the strategy as another strand of spaghetti thrown at the wall.

White House spokesman Andrew Bates hit back hard: “If Covid-19 and inflation had lobbyists to help them kill more American jobs, Kevin McCarthy would be their favorite member of Congress,” he said. “He is actively undermining the fight against Covid, which is driving inflation.”
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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G.O.P. Fights Covid Mandates, Then Blames Biden as Cases Rise
That's what I'm hearing. And I :jawdrop:
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Not surprising at all. What I don't know is if they genuinely believed that the vaccine was the end-all for what's happening right now and so rage because Biden's rollout didn't stop it. Is the resistance to masking couched in politics or somehow tied up into a worldview that vaccine = answer and nothing else? I honestly don't know anymore. Things are clearly better under Biden (pandemic) than what would have happened if Trump was re-elected, however the response (Biden, CDC) hasn't been exactly what I was anticipating once he was elected. I know I sound like a broken record but the pivot into vaccines over everything is something I just can't stop thinking about - especially from the CDC. Between the lack of focus on NPIs after May and the low-key communication that the evidence points to the virus being airborne, we're apparently fully committed to doing this the hard way.

Happy Thanksgiving!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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I honestly don't know but when I try to follow the dots unsuccessfully, I gather the belief is that Biden and the democrats are forcing vaccines and masking and distancing and denying the freedom of veterinary medicine and chiropractic and sunshine and eating healthy with vitamins and healing, which broke the economy, and then underpants and profit.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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LordMortis wrote: Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:23 am I honestly don't know but when I try to follow the dots unsuccessfully, I gather the belief is that Biden and the democrats are forcing vaccines and masking and distancing and denying the freedom of veterinary medicine and chiropractic and sunshine and eating healthy with vitamins and healing, which broke the economy, and then underpants and profit.
Now add Jade helm:
The federal government will send 44 military medical staffers to Michigan to help beleaguered hospitals treat COVID-19 patients amid a fourth surge that is the worst in the country, state health officials said Wednesday.

It also will open beds at the Veterans Affairs hospital in Detroit for transfers.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer sought the assistance at the request of the Michigan Health & Hospital Association.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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My client has asked me twice to come out to Michigan. My response has been ... outright evasion. It is not happening. I'll figure out a way to fire the client first.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Some potentially not good news - a new variant has come to light in South Africa and it could be worse than Delta:

Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yes and to confirm we're all living in a simulation, it's officially been named Nu.

The people I follow online are split 50/50. Some are saying not to worry yet, but others are already busting out graphs showing how it's rapidly spreading in South Africa at a rate higher than Delta and we all need to switch to elastomer masks.

So yeah, good times ahead.

EDIT: Yeah, the UK has already suspended flights to parts of South Africa because of it. Because that worked so well back in 2020.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Just wait until we get to Omega.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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For reference, Delta got its name less than six months ago.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Blackhawk wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:58 am For reference, Delta got its name less than six months ago.
That's like 250,000 years in virus years.

We missed several chances to squash this thing due to poor decisions and lack of cooperation. Every time we gain some ground we declare victory and party like it's 1999.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Grifman »

Additional info here:

Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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