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Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Blackhawk wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 6:23 pm It's amazing what you find when you decide to start looking.
You can read all about the problem here:
Over the past three months, the U.S. has sequenced and shared about 5.5% of its Covid cases, according to data from GISAID, a global portal where researchers share new genomes. Meanwhile, the U.K. sequences and shares nearly 14% of cases.

Disbursement and use of the administration’s sequencing funds isn’t going fast enough, said Rick Bright, chief executive officer of the Pandemic Prevention Institute at the Rockefeller Foundation. Sequencing centers across the country should also be coordinating more closely, he said.
Once again, it comes back to the fragmented nature of our public health system. It's been our complete undoing.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Grifman »

Why we should want a deadlier version of Omicron vs. a more infectious version:

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

Grifman wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 8:46 pm Why we should want a deadlier version of Omicron vs. a more infectious version
In this timeline, we'll get both eventually. :coffee:
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

Grifman wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 10:39 pm The race against Omicron:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... dErryZ5Goc
Is it possible to bet money on Omicron?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kraken »

El Guapo wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 11:56 pm
Grifman wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 10:39 pm The race against Omicron:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... dErryZ5Goc
Is it possible to bet money on Omicron?
It's not given that omicron will out-compete delta where the latter is surging, as it is here now. Delta was waning when omicron overran South Africa. If omicron can make delta hold its beer in these circumstances, we're in deep doo-doo.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Victoria Raverna »

malchior wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:04 pm
El Guapo wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:39 pm
malchior wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:29 pm *Though I don't really find this particular rule all that sensible. It sure looks like doing something to look like he is doing something.
Doesn't it make sense, though? Presumably some amount of would-be travelers will test positive, and I assume at that point they wouldn't be allowed to get on the flight. Not a silver bullet or anything, but I would think this would both increase the number of cases that get detected and prevent some transmission and spread.
I am just assuming (with increasing evidence) it's already here. People have been traveling here with it for weeks probably. I guess it might have some value in dissuading travel.
It can also prevent people infected others on the flight to US. So it is still somewhat useful to prevent people from being infected.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »


Flattened the curve...
but on the wrong axis.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by disarm »

Connecticut has now reported its first identified omicron infection...and it's another individual who attended the anime convention at the Javits Center in NYC!

When you consider that 53,000 people attended this event that ended on November 20 and we're just finding out about those people getting sick now, it looks like this one event could be a major contributor to the spread of omicron across the US. The Minnesota man what was first identified to have attended the convention said that 15 more of his friends tested positive after returning, but no variant testing was done at the time. There's no going back now

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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disarm wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 3:40 pm There's no going back now Image
There was no going back before it was ever identified in SA. If everybody had been doing analysis, it might have been caught in time to do something about it.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

disarm wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 3:40 pm There's no going back now Image
The CDC director said this morning that there is no need for a national mask mandate, so yeah, we're done. Bet on the virus - it's smarter and learning faster than we're clearly capable of doing.
"We have so many more tools now than we did a year ago," she said. "We know so many things that work against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID, regardless of the variant that we've seen before."
Yeah. And we're still focusing on a single one. Sure vaccination is limiting death (which is terrific) but the vaccines are not stopping spread - which is continuing to contribute to hospitalizations and the creation of new variants.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Jeff V »

Smoove_B wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 4:38 pm but the vaccines are not stopping spread -
How much of that is due to unvaccinated people acting like prostitutes with STDs?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Jeff V wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 8:22 pm How much of that is due to unvaccinated people acting like prostitutes with STDs?
It's not helping. The unvaccinated are keeping it in high circulation, putting the vaccinated at risk. We are actively being sabotaged by whatever % of adults there are that are intentionally refusing to vaccinate and spreading it.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

MA update. Spoiler - not good.


We have never before seen a #COVID19 case number > 10K in MA. Yes, we used to have daily reports and this is a 3-day measure, but it is nevertheless jarring to see. Hospitalizations climbed by more than 100 over the weekend and have doubled in past 3 weeks. What is the plan?
Saw the Press Secretary get a little snarky with a reporter this afternoon, implying it would be ridiculous to send tests to every one in the United States. No, no it would not be ridiculous. Also, send masks. Maybe consider providing states with enough to set up locations where both can be provided for free.

Vaccination is not enough. Its stopping people from dying but they are not stopping spread. And as long as the virus is spreading, everyone is still at risk - even vaccinated people. There isn't a megaphone large enough for me to get this message out.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kraken »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 7:39 pm MA update. Spoiler - not good.
We have never before seen a #COVID19 case number > 10K in MA. Yes, we used to have daily reports and this is a 3-day measure, but it is nevertheless jarring to see. Hospitalizations climbed by more than 100 over the weekend and have doubled in past 3 weeks. What is the plan?
Saw the Press Secretary get a little snarky with a reporter this afternoon, implying it would be ridiculous to send tests to every one in the United States. No, no it would not be ridiculous. Also, send masks. Maybe consider providing states with enough to set up locations where both can be provided for free.

Vaccination is not enough. Its stopping people from dying but they are not stopping spread. And as long as the virus is spreading, everyone is still at risk - even vaccinated people. There isn't a megaphone large enough for me to get this message out.
And yet, my fellow Massholes flock to bars and restaurants and entertainment venues, unmasked and unconcerned. Every thought of cooperating to end the pandemic is gone. We trust that being vaccinated will protect us individually, and that's all we care about now. Nobody wants to hear about covid anymore.

Tonight I was literally the only guy sitting in the curbside pickup area while families streamed in and out of the restaurant without a second thought.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

Kraken wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:37 pm And yet, my fellow Massholes flock to bars and restaurants and entertainment venues, unmasked and unconcerned. Every thought of cooperating to end the pandemic is gone. We trust that being vaccinated will protect us individually, and that's all we care about now. Nobody wants to hear about covid anymore.

Tonight I was literally the only guy sitting in the curbside pickup area while families streamed in and out of the restaurant without a second thought.
For the first time in a long time 70%+ were masked in Costco. I don't know how long it will last but people in some circumstances are treating things more seriously here.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Today the official US death toll from #Covid will hit 790,000.
Nearly 115,000 of those deaths have occurred in the past 12 weeks — when vaccine is readily available here, good masks can be purchased & it's well understood how to mimimize risk.
And yet people choose not to.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

There's a new study out this morning regarding the effectiveness of Pfizer against Omicron, but it's already been promoted by an untrustworthy voice as END OF TIMES situation making me question the interpretation. I will keep watching to see what the take is by more reliable sources before sharing or promoting.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Smoove_B wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:19 pm There's a new study out this morning regarding the effectiveness of Pfizer against Omicron, but it's already been promoted by an untrustworthy voice as END OF TIMES situation making me question the interpretation. I will keep watching to see what the take is by more reliable sources before sharing or promoting.
This in the other thread?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

That's the one. Let's just say...there's been some debate as to interpretation of the data. It's solid advice to get that booster, but what it means for those that haven't is the area of heated discussions right now.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Defiant »

There's been multiple preliminary studies released (not yet peer reviewed):
The earliest studies on omicron are in and the glimpse they’re providing is cautiously optimistic: while vaccines like the one made by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE may be less powerful against the new variant, protection can be fortified with boosters.

Research from South Africa, Sweden and Germany, as well as from the companies themselves, shows that omicron does cause a loss of immune protection -- but potentially not a complete one.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... id-vaccine
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Instead of waiting for complicated studies and peer review and whatnot, can't I just assume that what I want to be true about omicron is true?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Don't worry. Nate Silver is on the case.

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 7:39 pm MA update. Spoiler - not good.


We have never before seen a #COVID19 case number > 10K in MA. Yes, we used to have daily reports and this is a 3-day measure, but it is nevertheless jarring to see. Hospitalizations climbed by more than 100 over the weekend and have doubled in past 3 weeks. What is the plan?
Saw the Press Secretary get a little snarky with a reporter this afternoon, implying it would be ridiculous to send tests to every one in the United States. No, no it would not be ridiculous. Also, send masks. Maybe consider providing states with enough to set up locations where both can be provided for free.

Vaccination is not enough. Its stopping people from dying but they are not stopping spread. And as long as the virus is spreading, everyone is still at risk - even vaccinated people. There isn't a megaphone large enough for me to get this message out.
There was a plan that Trump killed of course, to send masks to every delivery address in the United States using the postal service. We can do that. It's not a big deal, not nearly as much annoyance as, say, a couple of pizza listings.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Good thread (IMO) on the outlook as we know it now


COVID Update: 2 weeks ago we said we would know a lot more about Omicron in 2 weeks.

I’ve rounded up the best scientific opinions to share a consensus. 1/

The bottom line-up front: We should expect a significant wave of COVID this weekend: likely a Delta + Omicron wave. 2/

The consensus view of Omicron is that it is NOT innately more contagious, but that it IS spreading much faster. 3/

What is wrapped up in that enigma is that the R0, the reproductive rate that Omicron spreads in the wild is likely no greater than Delta.

Delta is a 6 or 7 R0 and Omicron may be a bit lower or only slightly higher. But…. 4/

The virus spreads based on not just the rate COVIS spreads in the wild but what portion of the people are succeptable to spread.

Delta spread is limited by the people who are vaccinated & who have prior infections. Omicron, for reasons I will lay out, has a more open field. 5/

As a result, the rate Delta actually spreads (Re) is about 1
& the rate Omicron spreads is closer to 2.5.

So it should feel like Omicron is growing about 2.5x as fast as Delta. Most of what we see is from the S African outbreak & more recently from the U.K. 6/

The reason Omicron is able to spread with little in its way stems from the fact that Omicron comes from a different lineage than Delta. Therefore prior infection from Delta does a poor job protecting against spread & infection if there is no vaccination. 7/

How do vaccines themselves perform?

Good and bad.

Limited data from Pfizer shows that with a 3rd dose, the vaccine will continue to do a very good job—particularly at preventing severe illness.

Even with that third dose/booster, it appears to have some fall off from Delta.8/

Without a booster, vaccines aren’t expected to do a great job preventing the virus from spreading, although still provide strong protection against severe illness. 9/

This is relieving news for people who have gotten or will get boosted.

For people who are vaccinated but not boosted there is real risk of breakthrough infection.

But anyone who has been vaccinated is far better off than those who haven’t. Prior infection isn’t a help. 10/

The other question we began wrestling with— and are still wrestling with— is whether the COVID that people get w Omicron is more or less severe. 11/

Depending who you ask, Omicron is either more, less, or equally severe.

Now that that’s cleared up, there is an interesting & important theory of the case. 12/

The perspective I find most compelling is that Omicron is not likely to be more or less severe than Delta but that we may be seeing the effects of memory B cell and T cell accumulated immunity. 13/

This would be similar to what’s happening as we look at how fast the virus spreads. What we’re seeing is clouded by the impact of prior infection, not the innate properties of the virus itself. 14/

If it turns out that Omicron is less lethal because more people have cellular protection that’s an overall good thing for the population— it means we are making progress towards making the virus less lethal. But…
15/

It would be even better if Omicron were less lethal than Delta innately. We still have many people— like those under 5– with no protection and those with compromised immune systems.
16/

So what happens when Omicron begins to grow in the US? What would an even more rapidly growing virus (250% faster than Delta) that is less lethal look like?

It can be damaging. Even a small percentage of a big number is a big number. 17/

If Omicron were the only challenge of the winter, it would be easier to manage. But Omicron will arrive when Delta is raging. And if Delta spreads as fast or faster than Omicron innately, then scientists tell me we are likely to get stuck with both. 18/

Both.

That means two viruses circulating, 2 types of immunity required to thwart infection. 2 cycles of spread.

We have had 2 strains of the flu before. 2 flu vaccines combined.

One solution. 19/

A third shot on top of 2 prior shots works well against Delta and appears to make a big difference with Omicron. 20/

Rapid tests. Therapeutics. Ventilation. n-95 masks.

All help on top of vaccines. 21/

And this is how the winter of 2021-2022 is different from last winter.

As bad a storm as comes, we have the tools to stay safe. If we use them. /end
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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:?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

For the record, Slavitt's take is more or less the consensus opinion I'm seeing from respected voices across the spectrum. The key element goes back to the point Grifman raised a few days ago (which was originally raised in the early days of the pandemic). A virus that spreads faster that isn't killing people outright has more potential to disrupt our medical system than a virus that isn't spreading as quickly. Our national system is not designed to handle large scale surges; it never was. Add in a workforce that has been stretched to the limit (along with being depleted) and it doesn't take a stable genius to see we could potentially be in for a world of pain over the next 4+ months.

But don't worry about that - there are company Xmas parties to attend and large social functions to join. Get vaccinated - but don't worry about anything else, citizen.

:(
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Yup. My un-boosted FIL went to the big union Christmas Party last night. Keep in mind that COVID killed about over a dozen people in the union in 2020, several were probably killed getting COVID at the funerals for the first batches, and a few more died this year. It's crazy. It isn't like this was a tiny unfathomable risk. They all know several people who died directly. Yet party on?!

As to his un-boosted status, that is purely logistical. They waited too long and now my wife's folks are in the queue to get their shot on December 21st.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Our county just lifted the mask mandate for schools. It's been the same since the start of this. When hospital levels are low, we should be doubling down on our precautions to stamp this out. Instead, we open up everything, throw gas on the fire, and then wonder why we have to reinstate mask mandates 2 months from now.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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YellowKing wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:06 am Our county just lifted the mask mandate for schools.
Right before the winter holiday break?! Are the schools secretly working for the coronavirus? Good lord that is an incredibly ill-advised decision.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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On boosters and omicron: how much of the value of boosters is due to the number of shots and how much is due to recency of a shot? I'm thinking about this in terms of my 9 YO son who got his second shot on Sunday. On the one hand he's obviously not boosted. On the other hand he just got his second shot so there hasn't been time yet for any protection to 'wane'. So...how worried should I be about him not being boosted?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:19 am
YellowKing wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:06 am Our county just lifted the mask mandate for schools.
Right before the winter holiday break?! Are the schools secretly working for the coronavirus? Good lord that is an incredibly ill-advised decision.
Our county did the same. Completely coincidentally, the newly-elected conservative majority school board was seated last week.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

My understanding is the concern is related to the diminished immunity that is seen after 6+ months after the second shot, so you're going to need to follow whatever data is being collected now that would support or negate the need for us to give boosters to 5-11 year olds. Or you could let someone that is following data to pop in and drop some knowledge over the coming months. :wink: There's already talk of boosters for 12-15 coming in Q1, so I would guess your son (and others) will likely need to get one in ~May/June of 2022 as well.

But in terms of being protected? I haven't seen anything to suggest kids being vaccinated now for the first time are in an elevated area of concern because they only have two shots. Instead the concern is for kids with zero or one shot (incomplete series).
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote:Right before the winter holiday break?! Are the schools secretly working for the coronavirus? Good lord that is an incredibly ill-advised decision.
It was a 4:3 decision. Crazy to think that one (non medically-trained) person who doesn't like masks can make a decision which puts hundreds of students and thousands of family members at risk. And not a diddly-damn thing any of us can do about it.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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At least you had a mask mandate to drop! We haven't had one since June.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

YellowKing wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:36 am
Smoove_B wrote:Right before the winter holiday break?! Are the schools secretly working for the coronavirus? Good lord that is an incredibly ill-advised decision.
It was a 4:3 decision. Crazy to think that one (non medically-trained) person who doesn't like masks can make a decision which puts hundreds of students and thousands of family members at risk. And not a diddly-damn thing any of us can do about it.
Are there any private schools with mask mandates? Just wondering what the parent options are like.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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El Guapo wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 11:43 am
YellowKing wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:36 am
Smoove_B wrote:Right before the winter holiday break?! Are the schools secretly working for the coronavirus? Good lord that is an incredibly ill-advised decision.
It was a 4:3 decision. Crazy to think that one (non medically-trained) person who doesn't like masks can make a decision which puts hundreds of students and thousands of family members at risk. And not a diddly-damn thing any of us can do about it.
Are there any private schools with mask mandates? Just wondering what the parent options are like.
I have a friend who recently moved from Chicago to outside of Nashville. He's sending his kids to a private school specifically because they can have a mask mandate there.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

YellowKing wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:36 am It was a 4:3 decision. Crazy to think that one (non medically-trained) person who doesn't like masks can make a decision which puts hundreds of students and thousands of family members at risk. And not a diddly-damn thing any of us can do about it.
Yeah, I'd love to know the logic behind the decision for those 4 people that voted against masking. I would *hope* there are enough parents in your school district that are going to push this and confront these school board members during a meeting and have them explain themselves, but from a practical sense, I'm aware it's unlikely.

I am genuinely at a loss anymore.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 12:01 pm
YellowKing wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:36 am It was a 4:3 decision. Crazy to think that one (non medically-trained) person who doesn't like masks can make a decision which puts hundreds of students and thousands of family members at risk. And not a diddly-damn thing any of us can do about it.
Yeah, I'd love to know the logic behind the decision for those 4 people that voted against masking. I would *hope* there are enough parents in your school district that are going to push this and confront these school board members during a meeting and have them explain themselves, but from a practical sense, I'm aware it's unlikely.

I am genuinely at a loss anymore.
It's always parent choice as the rationale.

As a bonus, in the same school board meeting (for our county, not YK's), the preceding discussion was on retaining additional legal counsel for individual board members. Again, completely coincidentally, I'm sure.
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