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Ukraine

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Blackhawk
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Blackhawk »

That much I knew. The problem is when the ammo isn't hit directly, but cooks off from the heat.

Like I said, I don't know how often that happens with modern Russian tanks, but it used to be a problem with historical models.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

US and its allies say Russia waged cyberattack that took out satellite network
The US and European Union on Tuesday said Russia was responsible for a cyberattack in February that crippled a satellite network in Ukraine and neighboring countries, disrupting communications and a wind farm used to generate electricity.

The February 24 attack unleashed wiper malware that destroyed thousands of satellite modems used by customers of communications company Viasat. A month later, security firm SentinelOne said an analysis of the wiper malware used in the attack shared multiple technical similarities to VPNFilter, a piece of malware discovered on more than 500,000 home and small office modems in 2018. Multiple US government agencies attributed VPNFilter to Russian state threat actors.
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Max Peck
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Finland's leaders support NATO membership, Sweden expected to follow suit
Finland said on Thursday it would apply to join NATO, with Sweden expected to follow, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine looked set to bring about the very expansion of the Western military alliance that Vladimir Putin aimed to prevent.

The decision by the two Nordic countries to abandon the neutrality they maintained throughout the Cold War would be one of the biggest shifts in European security in decades. Finland's announcement angered the Kremlin, which called it a direct threat to Russia and hinted at an unspecified response.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the Finns would be "warmly welcomed" and promised an accession process that would be "smooth and swift."

Finland and Sweden are the two biggest EU countries yet to join NATO. Finland's 1,300-kilometre border will more than double the length of the frontier between the U.S.-led alliance and Russia, putting NATO guards a few hours' drive from the northern outskirts of St. Petersburg.

The dramatic move by Finland was announced by President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin in a joint statement.

"As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defence alliance," Niinisto and Marin said in a joint statement. "Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay. We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days."
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YellowKing
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Re: Ukraine

Post by YellowKing »

Finland's announcement angered the Kremlin, which called it a direct threat to Russia and hinted at an unspecified response.
Dear Russia, your "unspecified response" will be to STFU and do nothing. Or else you get the smackdown.
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Unagi
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

Rattle the saber long enough, you can't blame a person for looking for a shield to hold.

Russia still acts like it's holding people at gunpoint, while the rest of the world* sees it shooting its hostages.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Smoove_B »

Rand Paul - continuing to ruin everything


! Rand Paul just unilaterally blocked swift passage of Ukraine aid. He wanted the rest of the Senate add language to the bill he plans to vote against anyway bc debt/inflation.

He has this power because the Senate runs on *unanimous consent*, not nearly unanimous consent.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by hepcat »

Quickly, the Neighbor signal!
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

What are the odds that Kentucky doesn't re-elect him?
Cause, honestly - Kentucky can seriously fuck themselves if they see fit to re-elect this asshole.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by LordMortis »

Unagi wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:23 pm What are the odds that Kentucky doesn't re-elect him?
Cause, honestly - Kentucky can seriously fuck themselves if they see fit to re-elect this asshole.
We should stop funding the state for as long as they see fit to be "fiscally responsible" because of inflation and debt with that state having among the absolute worst of states leeching federal money while contributing little.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Isgrimnur »

Unagi wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:23 pm What are the odds that Kentucky doesn't re-elect him?
Cause, honestly - Kentucky can seriously fuck themselves if they see fit to re-elect this asshole.
They've been re-electing McConnell for how long?
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Unagi
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

Isgrimnur wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 7:10 pm
Unagi wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:23 pm What are the odds that Kentucky doesn't re-elect him?
Cause, honestly - Kentucky can seriously fuck themselves if they see fit to re-elect this asshole.
They've been re-electing McConnell for how long?
Also way too long. Clearly. But on some level, he at least probably speaks for a good number of them... I would like to think Rand Paul makes even their stomach turn.
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El Guapo
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Re: Ukraine

Post by El Guapo »

Unagi wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 7:15 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 7:10 pm
Unagi wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:23 pm What are the odds that Kentucky doesn't re-elect him?
Cause, honestly - Kentucky can seriously fuck themselves if they see fit to re-elect this asshole.
They've been re-electing McConnell for how long?
Also way too long. Clearly. But on some level, he at least probably speaks for a good number of them... I would like to think Rand Paul makes even their stomach turn.
The question is whether he makes their stomachs turn enough to vote for a Democrat. Not impossible, but unlikely.
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Unagi
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

El Guapo wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 8:29 pm
Unagi wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 7:15 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 7:10 pm
Unagi wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:23 pm What are the odds that Kentucky doesn't re-elect him?
Cause, honestly - Kentucky can seriously fuck themselves if they see fit to re-elect this asshole.
They've been re-electing McConnell for how long?
Also way too long. Clearly. But on some level, he at least probably speaks for a good number of them... I would like to think Rand Paul makes even their stomach turn.
The question is whether he makes their stomachs turn enough to vote for a Democrat. Not impossible, but unlikely.
Or at the very least, be enough of a turn-off to allow for a Democrat to win in that environment. I'd even like to think he would be primaried out... but that's a non-starter.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Holman »

El Guapo wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 8:29 pm
Unagi wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 7:15 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 7:10 pm
Unagi wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:23 pm What are the odds that Kentucky doesn't re-elect him?
Cause, honestly - Kentucky can seriously fuck themselves if they see fit to re-elect this asshole.
They've been re-electing McConnell for how long?
Also way too long. Clearly. But on some level, he at least probably speaks for a good number of them... I would like to think Rand Paul makes even their stomach turn.
The question is whether he makes their stomachs turn enough to vote for a Democrat. Not impossible, but unlikely.
A Democratic senate win in KY would require a Roy Moore level of scandal from the Republican. Mitch and Rand are secure.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Blackhawk »

If only we could move Tennessee down between Florida and Texas, then build a real wall. And a moat. Which we'd fill with alligators. Socialist alligators.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Alefroth »

Erdogan says Turkey doesn't support NATO membership for Finland and Sweden due to providing haven for terrorist organizations (specifically PKK and the Gulenists). Since membership requires unanimous approval, how likely is it Turkey could scuttle it?

https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-s ... 022-05-13/
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Kraken »

Turkey is the Manchen of NATO, and the reason Europe can't have nice things.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Isgrimnur »

Kraken wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 6:34 pm Turkey is the Manchen of NATO, and the reason Europe can't have nice things.
Erdoğan is the Manchen of NATO
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Re: Ukraine

Post by El Guapo »

Alefroth wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 5:58 pm Erdogan says Turkey doesn't support NATO membership for Finland and Sweden due to providing haven for terrorist organizations (specifically PKK and the Gulenists). Since membership requires unanimous approval, how likely is it Turkey could scuttle it?

https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-s ... 022-05-13/
Well, one step will be to see if there's a deal to be worked out - can NATO countries give Turkey something in exchange for allowing Finnish / Swedish membership.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by dbt1949 »

And now you know why Turkey is holding out.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Holman »

El Guapo wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 7:43 pm
Alefroth wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 5:58 pm Erdogan says Turkey doesn't support NATO membership for Finland and Sweden due to providing haven for terrorist organizations (specifically PKK and the Gulenists). Since membership requires unanimous approval, how likely is it Turkey could scuttle it?

https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-s ... 022-05-13/
Well, one step will be to see if there's a deal to be worked out - can NATO countries give Turkey something in exchange for allowing Finnish / Swedish membership.
They want Muhammed Gulen, a Turkish dissident who now lives in the US. (You'll recall that Michael Flynn was involved in an apparent scheme to kidnap and deliver him.)

Better to expel Turkey from NATO.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by El Guapo »

Holman wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 8:18 pm
El Guapo wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 7:43 pm
Alefroth wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 5:58 pm Erdogan says Turkey doesn't support NATO membership for Finland and Sweden due to providing haven for terrorist organizations (specifically PKK and the Gulenists). Since membership requires unanimous approval, how likely is it Turkey could scuttle it?

https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-s ... 022-05-13/
Well, one step will be to see if there's a deal to be worked out - can NATO countries give Turkey something in exchange for allowing Finnish / Swedish membership.
They want Muhammed Gulen, a Turkish dissident who now lives in the US. (You'll recall that Michael Flynn was involved in an apparent scheme to kidnap and deliver him.)

Better to expel Turkey from NATO.
I know that would be at the top of their to do list, but presumably there are other things as well - is there a deal to be had?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Blackhawk »

And what is Russia offering Turkey? They have him by the balls if they want to use it.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Alefroth »

Holman wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 8:18 pm
El Guapo wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 7:43 pm
Alefroth wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 5:58 pm Erdogan says Turkey doesn't support NATO membership for Finland and Sweden due to providing haven for terrorist organizations (specifically PKK and the Gulenists). Since membership requires unanimous approval, how likely is it Turkey could scuttle it?

https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-s ... 022-05-13/
Well, one step will be to see if there's a deal to be worked out - can NATO countries give Turkey something in exchange for allowing Finnish / Swedish membership.
They want Muhammed Gulen, a Turkish dissident who now lives in the US. (You'll recall that Michael Flynn was involved in an apparent scheme to kidnap and deliver him.)

Better to expel Turkey from NATO.
I assume that would require unanimous consent too. Could they get it?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Holman »

Alefroth wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 8:38 pm
Holman wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 8:18 pm
El Guapo wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 7:43 pm
Alefroth wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 5:58 pm Erdogan says Turkey doesn't support NATO membership for Finland and Sweden due to providing haven for terrorist organizations (specifically PKK and the Gulenists). Since membership requires unanimous approval, how likely is it Turkey could scuttle it?

https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-s ... 022-05-13/
Well, one step will be to see if there's a deal to be worked out - can NATO countries give Turkey something in exchange for allowing Finnish / Swedish membership.
They want Muhammed Gulen, a Turkish dissident who now lives in the US. (You'll recall that Michael Flynn was involved in an apparent scheme to kidnap and deliver him.)

Better to expel Turkey from NATO.
I assume that would require unanimous consent too. Could they get it?
I don't know what the rules for expulsion might be. But presumably a country isn't allowed to thwart its own expulsion.

Turkey joined NATO 70 years ago under a different regime and in a very different global situation. If they're not willing to look to the collective security requirements of today, they should go their own way.

I'd be happy to see all authoritarian regimes expelled from both NATO and the EU.
Last edited by Holman on Fri May 13, 2022 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Alefroth »

xwraith wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 7:34 am

A good briefing about the Donbas front — use subtitles for English.
Looks like there might be one fewer of those pontoon bridges now-

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russia-lo ... ys-ukraine
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Alefroth »

Holman wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 8:57 pm
Alefroth wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 8:38 pm
Holman wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 8:18 pm
El Guapo wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 7:43 pm
Alefroth wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 5:58 pm Erdogan says Turkey doesn't support NATO membership for Finland and Sweden due to providing haven for terrorist organizations (specifically PKK and the Gulenists). Since membership requires unanimous approval, how likely is it Turkey could scuttle it?

https://www.reuters.com/world/erdogan-s ... 022-05-13/
Well, one step will be to see if there's a deal to be worked out - can NATO countries give Turkey something in exchange for allowing Finnish / Swedish membership.
They want Muhammed Gulen, a Turkish dissident who now lives in the US. (You'll recall that Michael Flynn was involved in an apparent scheme to kidnap and deliver him.)

Better to expel Turkey from NATO.
I assume that would require unanimous consent too. Could they get it?
I don't know what the rules for expulsion might be. But presumably a country isn't allowed to thwart its own expulsion.

Turkey joined NATO 70 years ago under a different regime and in a very different global situation. If they're not willing to look to the collective security requirements of today, they should go their own way.

I'd be happy to see all authoritarian regimes expelled from both NATO and the EU.
Yeah, I wasn't considering Turkey's vote.

Apparently there isn't a mechanism for expelling a country.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Blackhawk »

I found the same answer. It was never planned for.

Oops.

I guess Russia gets to veto-by-proxy any NATO admissions.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Holman »

Well this all comes down to the question of what a treaty organization actually is.

It's not a government, it has no property, its constituent members cooperate voluntarily, and every nation involved remains completely sovereign. Every NATO military official is a citizen serving in some independent national military, and only in that national military.

If Turkey wants to thwart NATO, how difficult would it be to immediately institute a NATO2 with everyone but Turkey?

Obviously that's a radical way to go, but it seems like a good time to recognize that the old Cold War is over and that the new Cold War is about defending liberal democracy along new borders, including virtual ones.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Alefroth »

Holman wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 9:15 pm If Turkey wants to thwart NATO, how difficult would it be to immediately institute a NATO2 with everyone but Turkey?
Or just admit Finland and Sweden anyway and let Turkey respond how they want.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by stessier »

Holman wrote: Fri May 13, 2022 8:57 pm
I'd be happy to see all authoritarian regimes expelled from both NATO and the EU.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Technically there is no mechanism built into the NATO treaty for expelling members (although Canada advocated for one in the event that a member state went Communist), but I've seen the argument made that the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (Article 60) may provide a legal basis for doing so if the remaining signatories contend that a state is in material breach of the treaty. The argument apparently hinges on the idea that NATO is more than simply a military alliance.

This article dates back to Turkey's Syrian adventure: Can Turkey be Expelled from NATO? It’s Legally Possible, Whether or Not Politically Prudent
It is important to bear in mind that NATO is not merely a community of interests, but also a community of values. Inspired by the wording of the Brussels Treaty of 1948, the preamble to the North Atlantic Treaty makes this point in the following terms:
The Parties to this Treaty reaffirm their faith in the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and their desire to live in peace with all peoples and all governments.

They are determined to safeguard the freedom, common heritage and civilization of their peoples, founded on the principles of democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law. They seek to promote stability and well-being in the North Atlantic area.

They are resolved to unite their efforts for collective defense and for the preservation of peace and security. They therefore agree to this North Atlantic Treaty.
That the Alliance is based on a set of shared values is further underlined by Article 2 of the treaty, which commits the parties to “strengthening their free institutions” and “bringing about a better understanding of the principles upon which these institutions are founded,” as well as by Article 10, which stipulates that prospective members need to be in “a position to further the principles of this Treaty” in order to accede to it.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Blackhawk »

Given the conversation, I'm guessing we all went and found the same couple of articles. ;)

I wonder, though - if something is legally untested, who in NATO determines whether it's valid? Who declares, "Yes, this is now how we expel members"? Do they just do a majority vote? A unanimous vote minus the problem member?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Article 60 stipulates unanimous agreement among the other parties, so I'd guess that if it come to that then we might see another signatory state whose commitment to the cause is a little shaky (Yes, I'm looking at you Hungary.) veto the expulsion.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by xwraith »

I forgot to call it "a box of pure malevolent evil, a purveyor of
insidious insanity, an eldritch manifestation that would make Bill
Gates let out a low whistle of admiration," but it's all those, too.
-- David Gerard, Re: [Mediawiki-l] Wikitext grammar, 2010.08.06
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Re: Ukraine

Post by xwraith »

I forgot to call it "a box of pure malevolent evil, a purveyor of
insidious insanity, an eldritch manifestation that would make Bill
Gates let out a low whistle of admiration," but it's all those, too.
-- David Gerard, Re: [Mediawiki-l] Wikitext grammar, 2010.08.06
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Re: Ukraine

Post by stessier »

I need context on why that is impressive.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

stessier wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 6:48 pm I need context on why that is impressive.
Aside from the way they keep their shit together under fire?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

stessier wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 6:48 pm I need context on why that is impressive.
For me: it’s amazing to watch 3 minutes of modern-war from the trenches. And the commitment to keep the video rolling.

It’s not impressive in the ‘4 tanks destroyed by drone attack’ way.


Edit: also what you said
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