Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

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Hrothgar
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by Hrothgar »

msteelers wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:29 am 4 Rivers is excellent. They started popping up all over town right after I left Orlando. They haven’t made it down by me yet unfortunately.
Is that a Native American hurricane name, or are you just predicting disaster for them this season?

:lol:
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

msteelers wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:29 am 4 Rivers is excellent. They started popping up all over town right after I left Orlando. They haven’t made it down by me yet unfortunately.
My wife and I tried one a few years ago, but IIRC they were a counter service place and we were looking for table service. It's why we like Dustins.

Back on track, there's a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, 20% development chance.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

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Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Agatha looks to intensify to a Cat 2 hurricane and come ashore either Monday or Tuesday.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by msteelers »

I spent a good chunk of today installing anchors so I can properly install my hurricane shutters. When I first moved in I saw that we had shutters, but didn’t investigate how to put them up. When a storm came, I realized that for about half the windows the anchors needed to hang the shutters were either busted or never installed. And by then, the stores were all out of the needed supplies. My neighbor suggested using tapcon screws to secure the shutters.

I spent close to five hours outside and only got half of the windows done. It seemed like an easy enough job, so of course I ran into several issues.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

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Now looking at a 40% chance of development in the Gulf, tied to Hurricane Agatha crossing Mexico:

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

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It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

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Now a 60% chance of development:

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Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple
of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, this system could become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next few days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

We're now up to a 70% chance of development, with heavy rains anticipated for this weekend in Central and South Florida.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by msteelers »

Good thing I just finished getting the rest of my hurricane shutters installed today. Hopefully this means that when a storm comes it won’t take very long to get the shutters in place.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

msteelers wrote: Tue May 31, 2022 5:23 pm Good thing I just finished getting the rest of my hurricane shutters installed today. Hopefully this means that when a storm comes it won’t take very long to get the shutters in place.
Hey, off topic, but I noticed that your location is Port Saint Lucie. I just happened to be reading an article this weekend that mentioned the fifteen most rapidly growing areas in the United States. Two were in Florida, Fort Meyers and Port Saint Lucie :D. You've started a trend!
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by msteelers »

Yeah, this area has been growing rapidly since I got here 12 years ago. A lot of retirees from New York come down here thanks to the Mets, and a lot of families from Palm Beach also come up here because of the lower cost of living.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

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msteelers wrote: Tue May 31, 2022 7:20 pm Yeah, this area has been growing rapidly since I got here 12 years ago. A lot of retirees from New York come down here thanks to the Mets, and a lot of families from Palm Beach also come up here because of the lower cost of living.
I just happen to have attended the very first Mets spring training game there in Port Saint Lucie :D, which was <typity type> thirty-four years ago (1988) :roll:
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by msteelers »

Cool! I kind of wish the Mets are a bigger deal here than they are. Nobody seems to care about the games. The spring training games fill up, but the minor league team can barely crack 1,000 people even on dollar beer night. Except for the years that Tebow played, the Mets always seem to have the lowest attendance in the league.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by naednek »

msteelers wrote: Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:15 am Cool! I kind of wish the Mets are a bigger deal here than they are. Nobody seems to care about the games. The spring training games fill up, but the minor league team can barely crack 1,000 people even on dollar beer night. Except for the years that Tebow played, the Mets always seem to have the lowest attendance in the league.
huh? :P
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by msteelers »

naednek wrote: Wed Jun 01, 2022 11:21 am
msteelers wrote: Wed Jun 01, 2022 5:15 am Cool! I kind of wish the Mets are a bigger deal here than they are. Nobody seems to care about the games. The spring training games fill up, but the minor league team can barely crack 1,000 people even on dollar beer night. Except for the years that Tebow played, the Mets always seem to have the lowest attendance in the league.
huh? :P
https://www.numbertamer.com/_files/ugd/f18c0d_c18a059629db429897112c9d0c38466d.pdf wrote:The St. Lucie Mets drew 45,609 in 2021, with an 861 average per date. 21 dates topped 1,000, with a high of 2,487.
There were 7 lost dates.

The Tebow Effect – Tim Tebow played the 2nd half of the 2017 season with the St. Lucie Mets, and that certainly led to an increase in attendance, both at home and on the road. In the 37 home dates prior to Tebow’s arrival, the Mets drew 64,568, averaging 1,745 per date. With Tebow, they drew 67,791 in 29 home dates, an average of 2,338. On the road the gain was more significant. The Mets’ 33 road dates prior to Tebow drew 37,941, an average of 1,150. But with Tebow, they drew 127,546 in 33 dates, an average of 3,865. Some of this gain can be attributed to where the road games were played, but there’s no doubt that much of it was due to Tebow. Combined home and road St. Lucie attendance with Tebow was 195,337 in 62 dates, an average of 3,151 per date. Without Tebow, combined St. Lucie home and road attendance was 102,509 in 70 dates, an average of 1,464.
People acted like Tebow was their son at a Little League game. They applauded and cheered him on even as he was striking out and making mistakes.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

Things continue to look serious:

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1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level winds, gradual development is forecast and this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas:
A weak surface trough located about 150 miles northeast of the northwest Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity. Surface pressures are currently high across the area, and significant development of this system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastward over the next several days away from the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

Still watching the disturbance over the Yucatan, which now is noted as having an 80% of turning into a tropical storm. Here's the latest spaghetti models:

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

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Chances are now 90% of a tropical storm. Heading over some very warm water.

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. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these areas later today.

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. These heavy rains could cause scattered to numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by msteelers »

I just got a notification of being in a tropical storm watch. Cool.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by Isgrimnur »

msteelers wrote: Thu Jun 02, 2022 6:07 pm I just got a notification of being in a tropical storm watch. Cool.
I don't think you're in Pennsylvania anymore, Toto.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

msteelers wrote: Thu Jun 02, 2022 6:07 pm I just got a notification of being in a tropical storm watch. Cool.
Projected rainfall for east central Florida. Looking like 4-6 inches of rain for you, maybe an inch or two for me. Unless the storm pulls to the left :wink:

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by msteelers »

It’s a good thing the city came out on Tuesday and cleaned our swale. Normally all of the rain water for the neighborhood pools up in our yard. Maybe it will actually drain like it’s intended to now.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

Projected rainfall totals as of 2:17pm EDT today.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by Aliasbuck »

Hrdina wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 9:02 pm We arrived in Florida early this afternoon.

When it came time to choose between Sonny's and Dustin's for lunch, we ended up eating at 4 Rivers BBQ in Jacksonville.

The first test of any BBQ joint is how it smells outside, and here we were treated to a wall of wood smoke fragrance as soon as we opened the car door.

All the food was really good; among three of us we had ribs, brisket, pulled pork sandwich, and BBQ beans.

We were actually planning to visit Dustin's, but reading their website they talked about grilling rather than smoking. :naughty:


To stay on-topic for the thread: no hurricane so far, although we did get the requisite Florida downpour almost as soon as we left the Welcome Center. :D
4 Rivers is terrific. We went to the original location on Fairbanks in Winter Park for years before they opened up the one in Kissimmee.

Also to stay on topic, Charley, Frances and Jean did their best trying to blow Orlando off the map. Talk about a nerve wracking 6 weeks.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by Aliasbuck »

msteelers wrote: Thu Jun 02, 2022 7:00 pm It’s a good thing the city came out on Tuesday and cleaned our swale. Normally all of the rain water for the neighborhood pools up in our yard. Maybe it will actually drain like it’s intended to now.
Hopefully you did ok this time around. The pictures out of South Florida and in particular Miami were crazy for such a "nothing" storm.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

Here in Brevard County it was pretty much a "nothing" storm. Practically no wind and instead of the 2-3 inches of predicted rain it just drizzled on and off for a few hours for no measurable accumulation. But many months to go...
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

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Aliasbuck wrote:Also to stay on topic, Charley, Frances and Jean did their best trying to blow Orlando off the map. Talk about a nerve wracking 6 weeks.
It was the opposite for me. I was at UCF at the time. I don’t remember our apartment ever losing power, so it was basically a stay at home vacation for us.

This storm was basically a non-event where I’m at. It drizzled for two days straight. If we got any heavy rain and wind, it happened at night while I was sleeping.

From what I hear Miami got hit pretty hard with flooding. Hopefully that’s the worst Florida gets this year.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

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msteelers wrote: Sun Jun 05, 2022 8:54 pm
Aliasbuck wrote:Also to stay on topic, Charley, Frances and Jean did their best trying to blow Orlando off the map. Talk about a nerve wracking 6 weeks.
It was the opposite for me. I was at UCF at the time. I don’t remember our apartment ever losing power, so it was basically a stay at home vacation for us.
At UCF? Ah, you young kids! I had already been working at the space center for 27 years in 2004 :wink:

We lost power during Charley for a few days and stayed in a nearby hotel. That's when we got a downed tree that took out part of our back fence and pool cage and ended up in the pool. Otherwise just some shingles damaged, although we lost all the food in the refrigerators. Our insurance company came through like champs, their roving agent visited the house and wrote us a check that more than covered the losses.

Frances hit a week after my wife had knee replacement surgery. We evacuated to Macon GA so we could get a ground level room where I could set up the two machines she needed for her post surgery recovery. I even ended up taking out the rest of her staples after a doctor at a clinic took out the ones that were ready to come out. I didn't have to use any sick days because after Frances the Cape was closed to regular employees for about three weeks.

We decided to stay home during Jeanne and never even lost power or even cable. The two previous storms had taken out all the weaker power infrastructure and so when Jeanne hit those items had been replaced.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by msteelers »

jztemple2 wrote:I had already been working at the space center for 27 years in 2004 :wink:
Oh cool! I spent a lot of weekends at the marina across the river from the space center. And I always enjoyed the yearly field trips to the space center.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

We had a thunderstorm that was a lot worse than what we saw in PTC1. About thirty minutes worth of high winds and rain that raised my pool by almost three inches :shock:. And we're only a week into the rainy season :wink:
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by Aliasbuck »

msteelers wrote: Sun Jun 05, 2022 8:54 pm
Aliasbuck wrote:Also to stay on topic, Charley, Frances and Jean did their best trying to blow Orlando off the map. Talk about a nerve wracking 6 weeks.
It was the opposite for me. I was at UCF at the time. I don’t remember our apartment ever losing power, so it was basically a stay at home vacation for us.

This storm was basically a non-event where I’m at. It drizzled for two days straight. If we got any heavy rain and wind, it happened at night while I was sleeping.

From what I hear Miami got hit pretty hard with flooding. Hopefully that’s the worst Florida gets this year.
Yeah, other than a week without power and losing only four shingles, the three amigos didn't have a huge effect on me. My neighbors, on the other hand, lost roofs, trees and more. The neighborhood next to us was pretty bad - it had a microburst DURING a hurricane. Took down power poles, phone poles most of the tunnels of old trees.

Glad to hear you made out ok with this one. Not much here either, just rain on and off all day.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by Hrdina »

Aliasbuck wrote: Wed Jun 08, 2022 8:49 am
msteelers wrote: Sun Jun 05, 2022 8:54 pm
Aliasbuck wrote:Also to stay on topic, Charley, Frances and Jean did their best trying to blow Orlando off the map. Talk about a nerve wracking 6 weeks.
It was the opposite for me. I was at UCF at the time. I don’t remember our apartment ever losing power, so it was basically a stay at home vacation for us.

This storm was basically a non-event where I’m at. It drizzled for two days straight. If we got any heavy rain and wind, it happened at night while I was sleeping.

From what I hear Miami got hit pretty hard with flooding. Hopefully that’s the worst Florida gets this year.
Yeah, other than a week without power and losing only four shingles, the three amigos didn't have a huge effect on me. My neighbors, on the other hand, lost roofs, trees and more. The neighborhood next to us was pretty bad - it had a microburst DURING a hurricane. Took down power poles, phone poles most of the tunnels of old trees.

Glad to hear you made out ok with this one. Not much here either, just rain on and off all day.
For the recent storm, we managed to drive out of Sanibel and stay mostly ahead of it on our way north. We got hammered by a downpour in South Carolina shortly before we stopped for the night.

For Charley, the day after the storm I drove across Florida from Daytona to Bradenton to check on my dad. He was living in a mobile (pre-fab) home, and had been evacuated to a school somewhere nearby. Fortunately they were back in their house by the time we got over there. In hindsight it seems pretty insane that we did this (successfully!). We took back roads most of the way across the state because IIRC I-4 was shut down or at least not moving. I thankfully don't remember all the details but it was an all-day adventure.

We spent the rest of our "vacation" bouncing around a couple of places in FL, like Clearwater, St Petersburg, and St. Augustine.
Conform or be cast out!
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

Hmm, I wonder how high gas prices could go if a storm hits the rigs in the Gulf or refineries on the Gulf shore?

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A broad area of disturbed weather is located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Some slow development is possible, and a tropical depression could form by late this week if the system remains over water. The disturbance is expected to move northwestward near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras during that time. Regardless of development, this system could produce periods of heavy rainfall across portions of eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Current sea surface temperatures. The Caribbean and Gulf are in the mid-80s right now.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

Another wave with some potential:

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A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the
Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

So we have Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, which is expected to turn into a tropical storm and brush the north coast of South America before hitting Nicaragua as a minimal hurricane.
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We also have an area of disturbed weather that's going to bring some rain to Texas.
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1. Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

Tropical Storm Colin. Will probably downgrade into a depression tonight.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by Isgrimnur »

Just like the rest of us.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by YellowKing »

Colin's passing right over us, but I haven't seen any wind so far from it, just scattered and occasionally heavy rain. Biggest issue from it has been the fact I can't get my grass mowed for our cookout tomorrow evening. Hoping it dries out just enough in the morning that I can do a quick pass.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

It's been four weeks since my last post. Unusual to go that long in July without even a hint of a tropical disturbance. Part of that is due to waves of Saharan dust coming over the Atlantic filtering the sun and keeping things quieter. It's even affecting Florida, driving yesterday under a cloudless sky you could see the dust like a haze.

It's also having another effect. Locally were are experiencing "Abnormally Dry" conditions, the first stage of drought. And this is deep in the middle of rainy season for us. We're Brevard, the county on the central east coast where the eastern part of the yellow circle is located, and where Cape Canaveral juts out into the Atlantic. And we're not expecting very much rain for another week.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by naednek »

jztemple2 wrote: Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:08 am It's been four weeks since my last post. Unusual to go that long in July without even a hint of a tropical disturbance. Part of that is due to waves of Saharan dust coming over the Atlantic filtering the sun and keeping things quieter. It's even affecting Florida, driving yesterday under a cloudless sky you could see the dust like a haze.

It's also having another effect. Locally were are experiencing "Abnormally Dry" conditions, the first stage of drought. And this is deep in the middle of rainy season for us. We're Brevard, the county on the central east coast where the eastern part of the yellow circle is located, and where Cape Canaveral juts out into the Atlantic. And we're not expecting very much rain for another week.
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