Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

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Kraken
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by Kraken »

We're in severe drought here -- 8" below normal YTD. But July and August are usually our driest months anyway, and the Quabbin Reservoir that supplies most of Greater Boston is still comfortably full. Plants and wildlife are stressed but us hoomins are still fine.

I say "usually" because last July was our wettest ever, with 10" of rain. This year, 0.5". That's how our climate is changing -- when it's dry it's very very dry, and when it's wet it's way too wet. A normal July should see 3.5".

No hurricanes or other severe weather, though, so that's fine. In fact "drought" can be taken as "too many nice days in a row."
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by The Meal »

naednek wrote: Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:51 am California's calling :P
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by Alefroth »

I've read that aridification is now a better descriptor of what is happening in CA than drought.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

The Meal wrote: Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:54 pm
naednek wrote: Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:51 am California's calling :P
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It's interesting how drought and non-drought seasons are mixed together, not a trend.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

When the heat is so much above the average, isn't it time to raise the average?
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by stessier »

jztemple2 wrote: Mon Aug 01, 2022 3:58 pm When the heat is so much above the average, isn't it time to raise the average?
That's not how it works. :)
The National Weather Service wrote: The new 30-year climate normal values (the average conditions to be expected) have been released after careful calculations by NOAA's National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). This information uses data collected between 1991 and 2020. Every 10 years, the normals are re-calculated based on the prior 30 years of data. This keeps the data fresh, helping to account for changes in the conditions near the observation sites. The previous 30-year time frame was 1981-2010.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

I know it's not the way it works. It is the way it should work :D. Pretty much every end of month that station shows that chart and almost every month there seem to be more red days than blue days. If they raised the average the chart would look better :wink:
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

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Revised hurricane outlook for this season, but NOAA still expects above-normal Atlantic hurricane season

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions still favor an above-normal 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, according to NOAA’s annual mid-season update issued today by the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

“I urge everyone to remain vigilant as we enter the peak months of hurricane season,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA will continue to provide the science, data and services needed to help communities become hurricane resilient and climate-ready for the remainder of hurricane season and beyond.”

NOAA forecasters have slightly decreased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (lowered from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 65% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has risen to 30% and the chances remain at 10% for a below-normal season.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

After a very quiet July, we've got a disturbance, 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours, 40% in the next five days.

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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

The tropical disturbance in the Atlantic has dissipated, but the drought in East Central Florida, during the rainy season, continues to escalate.

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And here's a look at the Orlando climatology. Normally from the beginning of June till now Orlando would have received about nine inches of rain. So far Orlando is seven inches under the average. We really do need a nice soaking tropical storm.

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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by Isgrimnur »

Such a cute, little drought, yes you are!
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:03 pm Such a cute, little drought, yes you are!
Well, not everyone can have apocalyptic water shortages :roll:
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by Isgrimnur »

All meant in good fun.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:28 pm All meant in good fun.
Of course! :D

I'm highlighting the drought because it is just so... odd. I've lived here in east central Florida for over a half century and while we have had years with the rainy season starting a few weeks late, to have a such a shortage of rain in mid-August is very unusual. Part of the reason is the extraordinary amount of Saharan dust we've been seeing, which is also why it's been so quiet in the tropics. Starting this weekend we're expecting to see a rainy pattern moving in for a least a week, which will help. Unfortunately it will also likely increase the chances of tropical activity.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

It's been a quite season so far.
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Yesterday was the eighteen year anniversary of Hurricane Charlie which hit Punta Gorda, FL, with Category 4 winds

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We were on the other side of the state, but Charlie was still strong enough as it crossed over Florida to take down our power for several days and knock over a neighbor's tree into our yard. But more was to come...
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by stessier »

I thought this was an interesting look at Desalinization plants. I figure these are going to have to figure pretty heavily into the West's future unless something drastic changes.

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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

stessier wrote: Wed Aug 17, 2022 12:51 pm I thought this was an interesting look at Desalinization plants. I figure these are going to have to figure pretty heavily into the West's future unless something drastic changes.

We have a desalinization plant over at Tampa in FL

The Tampa Bay Seawater Desalination facility is a drought-proof, alternative water supply that provides up to 25 million gallons per day of drinking water to the region.

Seawater coming into the plant goes through a rigorous pretreatment process then freshwater is separated from the seawater using reverse osmosis. The end product is high-quality drinking water that supplies up to 10 percent of the region’s needs.

The Tampa Bay Seawater Desalination Plant has provided more than 26 billion gallons of clean, safe drinking water to the Tampa Bay region since the plant went online in 2007.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

The disturbance near the Yucatan has a slightly better chance of developing. However it is expected to move inland before it can get serious.

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1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche is producing poorly organized shower
activity. Environmental conditions appear favorable for slow development, and a tropical depression could form late today or on Saturday while the system moves northwestward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

The disturbance has been upgraded to a 70% chance of tropical development. It looks likely to move ashore and bring heavy rains to northern Mexico and southern Texas.
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1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form later today, tonight, or on Saturday while the system moves northwestward across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the system. Interests along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

Recently updated hurricane forecast, I've dropped the two disturbances with almost no chance of forming, leaving just the one with the 40% chance during the next five days.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

This is the least active start to an Atlantic Hurricane Season in 30 years
Since 1966, there have only been five other hurricane seasons with as little activity as this season has to this point.

Since the modern satellite era began, 1967, 1977, 1984, 1988 and 1992 have been the slowest starts to the Atlantic Hurricane Season. 2022 is now in that group as activity has been very limited so far.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by em2nought »

jztemple2 wrote: Sun Aug 28, 2022 9:18 pm This is the least active start to an Atlantic Hurricane Season in 30 years
Since 1966, there have only been five other hurricane seasons with as little activity as this season has to this point.

Since the modern satellite era began, 1967, 1977, 1984, 1988 and 1992 have been the slowest starts to the Atlantic Hurricane Season. 2022 is now in that group as activity has been very limited so far.
I bet our Florida home insurance goes up more this year than in any year in the last thirty though. :wink:
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

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em2nought wrote: Sun Aug 28, 2022 9:46 pm I bet our Florida home insurance goes up more this year than in any year in the last thirty though. :wink:
Our neighbors across the street, who have lived there for a number of years, lost their home insurance because the company just dropped anyone living in a county on the ocean. The finally found another insurer, but had to do some home alterations before the company would insure them.

Thankfully we've been with State Farm for decades and when we designed our house we made sure it had a plain hip roof with no projections or other wind traps. We actually get a break on the insurance because of that.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

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jztemple2 wrote: Sun Aug 28, 2022 9:18 pm This is the least active start to an Atlantic Hurricane Season in 30 years
Since 1966, there have only been five other hurricane seasons with as little activity as this season has to this point.

Since the modern satellite era began, 1967, 1977, 1984, 1988 and 1992 have been the slowest starts to the Atlantic Hurricane Season. 2022 is now in that group as activity has been very limited so far.
jztemple2 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:27 pm NOAA forecasters predict an above-average hurricane season
Just like Colorado State’s forecast from early April, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is calling for another above-normal number of storms this hurricane season. NOAA meteorologists expect 14 to 21 named storms for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. They predict six to 10 of those will become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes, which are a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

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Colorado State University’s first outlook of the year, issued in early April, calls for 19 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. CSU will release its next seasonal forecast on June 2. Last year's Atlantic hurricane season ended with 21 named storms, although nine of them were so-called "shorties," each lasting two days or less.
Long term forecasting remains a tough job.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by msteelers »

em2nought wrote: Sun Aug 28, 2022 9:46 pm
jztemple2 wrote: Sun Aug 28, 2022 9:18 pm This is the least active start to an Atlantic Hurricane Season in 30 years
Since 1966, there have only been five other hurricane seasons with as little activity as this season has to this point.

Since the modern satellite era began, 1967, 1977, 1984, 1988 and 1992 have been the slowest starts to the Atlantic Hurricane Season. 2022 is now in that group as activity has been very limited so far.
I bet our Florida home insurance goes up more this year than in any year in the last thirty though. :wink:
The home insurance market here has collapsed, and that's without even having a major storm hit us in several years.

My insurance company announced last week that they are leaving the state, so I'm a little salty on it. And this was after our rates went from $2k a year up to $4800 this year.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

Back to mentioning the drought situation in Florida... yes, still not as bad as pretty much everywhere west of the Mississippi, but it's been a quiet month in the tropics so at least there's something to talk about :wink:

To me the interesting takeaway is that a year ago we had no areas with drought. Three months ago, which was just about the start of the rainy season we were at our driest. By now we should be back to no drought again but we have 16.48% of the state in at least a D0 Abnormally Dry and 1.31% in D1 Moderate Drought. And the dry season will be here in less than two months.

Also, that D1 region covers the headwaters of the St Johns river, the longest river in Florida and the most significant one for commerce and agriculture. Until this week when we had some significant rain the St Johns has been running low. It is fairly unknown what the effects would be if the river source stays in drought conditions until the dry season.

By the way, the St Johns is the only major river in the US that runs south to north and actually one of the only two major ones in the northern hemisphere like that. Can you name the other significant south to north running river in the northern hemisphere? :think:
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by Kraken »

36% of Mass. (including my town) is in "extreme drought" and the rest of the state is in "severe drought" except for a narrow strip in the Berkshires that is merely in "moderate drought." We've had a little bit of rain in the past couple of weeks but YTD we're still 10" below normal. I believe I read that this is the driest growing season on record.

They say that our new climate is going to consist of routine prolonged droughts punctuated by extreme rainfalls. Hotter air holds more moisture and is less prone to giving it up, but when it does finally let loose, watch out.

This year's scaled-back vegetable garden was my worst ever, and I don't think I'm ever going to plant a full garden again. Too much work and expense for a disappointing payoff.
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Re: Hurricane Season and other Significant Weather 2022

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Kraken wrote: Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:00 pm They say that our new climate is going to consist of routine prolonged droughts punctuated by extreme rainfalls. Hotter air holds more moisture and is less prone to giving it up, but when it does finally let loose, watch out.
That sounds correct for what is being seen in the West, doesn't it? I didn't realize that Massachusetts was also in such dire circumstances.

By the way, for folks who aren't familiar with it, the US Drought Monitor page is a good source for a weekly nationwide look at drought conditions. And if you click on the map, your first zoom in by region, the second zoom in is by state. Below is a screen grab of the current US situation.

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Re: Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by em2nought »

You'd think somebody might start mandating composting toilets and grey water systems, but then those would lessen your dependency so...

I could get behind something like that.
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Re: Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

And with it now September 1st, we have completed August without a single named tropical storm. No doubt Mother Nature is saving up her best work for when I have to go in for my surgery in twelve days :roll:. It is almost freaky how un-hurricane like this summer has been. The TV weather folks are getting depressed over the lack of depressions :D
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Re: Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by Unagi »

Hey, well the good news truly is that there isn't a political party ready to seize on the idea that concerns about weather extremes are a total joke.

/sarcasm
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Re: Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

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jztemple2 wrote:And with it now September 1st, we have completed August without a single named tropical storm. No doubt Mother Nature is saving up her best work for when I have to go in for my surgery in twelve days
I'm completely expecting one to rip up the coast and ruin my vacation to Williamsburg, VA on the 24th. It's bad when you just assume storms are targeting you, but I live in coastal NC. You start believing it. :lol:
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Re: Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

YellowKing wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 8:31 am
jztemple2 wrote:And with it now September 1st, we have completed August without a single named tropical storm. No doubt Mother Nature is saving up her best work for when I have to go in for my surgery in twelve days
I'm completely expecting one to rip up the coast and ruin my vacation to Williamsburg, VA on the 24th. It's bad when you just assume storms are targeting you, but I live in coastal NC. You start believing it. :lol:
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Re: Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by Isgrimnur »

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Re: Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

To the surprise of no one, a new tropical storm named Danielle formed hours into September. It is no threat at this time. Monitoring of the disturbance to the east of the Windward Island continues.
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Meanwhile, the drought in central and south Florida has grown. As I pointed out last week, we are in the second half of the rainy season, there shouldn't be any deficits at all. We could use just a little tropical storm :ninja:
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Re: Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

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Joy.
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Re: Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

The Meal wrote: Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:04 pm Enlarge Image
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Joy.
Ah, so warmer than usual but rainier than usual, for me at least. I'll take it, thanks for posting the graphics :handgestures-thumbupleft:
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Re: Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by Isgrimnur »

He's in Colorado, so he gets hotter and drier. I'm sure there aren't any trees around that would respond badly to that sort of thing.
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Re: Hurricanes, Droughts and other Significant Weather 2022

Post by jztemple2 »

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Sep 02, 2022 12:04 am He's in Colorado, so he gets hotter and drier. I'm sure there aren't any trees around that would respond badly to that sort of thing.
Oops, yup I see how my response wasn't worded properly. I've updated it to show that it will be warmer and rainier for me here in Florida, although after mid-October we are usually in the dry season and I suspect that it will stay dry. At most the warmer temps might cause the rainy season to extend a week or two and that would be alright as well.
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