Ukraine

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LordMortis
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Re: Ukraine

Post by LordMortis »

In his nightly address Zelensky said the war wouldn't end until they had Crimea back in their hands.
Are things going that poorly for Russia? On the surface, just hearing that sounds like great news. The surface doesn't provide the best insight though.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

LordMortis wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:34 am
In his nightly address Zelensky said the war wouldn't end until they had Crimea back in their hands.
Are things going that poorly for Russia? On the surface, just hearing that sounds like great news. The surface doesn't provide the best insight though.
Russia has big problems. Logistics issues were early on a problem. That led to the failure of big Russian offensives targeting Kyiv. The Russians fell back and focused on Donbas and the south. They went back to their usual playbook which involves indiscriminate shelling with artillery and grinding the enemy down. This all changed when the US gave them HIMARS (and probably now ATACMS) which gave them the capability to hit the rear ammo depots and interdict resupply of the artillery batteries.

We now also have seen that the US few weeks back provided the UA HARM missiles and the UA has been whittling down the Russian SAM capability. The strike on the Crimean airbase coincided with 4 SAM batteries being taken out along the path. So the UA enabled by the west is building out a capability to neutralize the entirety of the Russian playbook. Couple that with the now mostly confirmed notion that Russians generally have poor quality equipment and low quality unprofessional soldiers and you see a RUS military with little ability to adapt to changing strategic conditions.
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Max Peck
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

The fog of war continues to be foggy. It appears that the attack in Crimea may have been a special forces operation rather than a missile strike.

Crimea airfield blast was work of Ukrainian special forces, official says
A Ukrainian government official told The Washington Post on Wednesday that an attack on a Russian air base in occupied Crimea was the work of Ukrainian special forces.

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, did not disclose details of how the Tuesday attack was carried out. In any case, the attack marks a dramatic escalation in the nearly six-month-old war, demonstrating an ability by Ukrainian forces to strike farther behind Russian lines than previously believed.

At least three explosions rocked the Safy air base, in a coastal area presumed by the Russians to be so safe that videos showed startled beachgoers at a nearby resort scrambling for cover. The Crimean Peninsula was annexed by Moscow in 2014 and is a popular vacation destination for Russians.

The Ukrainian air force said in a statement that nine Russian military planes were destroyed at the base, which the authorities have said was used by Russia to launch missile strikes against Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Officially, Kyiv has refused to confirm or deny that Ukrainians were involved in the attack. But on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky focused his nightly address on Crimea, promising to win back the territory. “Crimea is Ukrainian, and we will never give it up,” he said, without mentioning the air base or the attack.

Ukraine’s special operations forces are known to be engaged in a campaign to infiltrate Russian-held territory and coordinate with sympathetic locals on the ground to carry out attacks. Guerrilla activity has been especially prevalent in the occupied southern Kherson region, just north of Crimea.
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malchior
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

Some folks were wondering if it was a Special Forces operations but it seemed far-fetched to some. There is some value in making this a Special Forces mission even if it wasn't. It wouldn't be US armaments hitting Crimea which is in Russia's opinion uncontested Russian soil now. Also the claim that the Ukrainians got boots close enough to an airbase to heavy damage it on Russian soil is fucking embarrassing. The Russians claimed it was a "fire". :coffee:
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Re: Ukraine

Post by dbt1949 »

Normally I'd say Ukraine hitting the Russians in the Crimea was a bad move. Russia would just up its game in attacking the Ukraine because of it but, given Russia's military incompetence it could work out for them.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by raydude »

Twitter thread on post-damage assessment. Possibly 9-10 planes destroyed, others damaged.


Also, the strike contributes to the propoganda war, pointing out to vacationers from Moscow that Russia may actually be losing. Note that to date the amount of recruits from heavily populated Russian cities like Moscow has been very very small. Thus Moscow citizens do not personally know the scale of deaths that other, poorer Russian regions are seeing. Seeing explosions with their own eyes though, that's a big wake up call.


Finally, all those panicked Russian vacationers trying to leave Crimea over the Kerch bridge means fewer Russian logistics trucks going the other way.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

raydude wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:06 am Twitter thread on post-damage assessment. Possibly 9-10 planes destroyed, others damaged.
That thread has some pre-attack imagery, used to get an idea of what air assets were present at the base. I don't see any information there about post-attack damage assessment, aside from a reply with a brief video of one destroyed SU-24. Did you intend to link a different thread?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

Hope they take back all their territory from 2014 as well. Maybe grab some of Russia while at it. Why stop at your own border now.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

Daehawk wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:32 amWhy stop at your own border now.
Nuclear weapons.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by LawBeefaroni »

malchior wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:49 am
Daehawk wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:32 amWhy stop at your own border now.
Nuclear weapons.
Also moral high ground.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by raydude »

Max Peck wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:29 am
raydude wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:06 am Twitter thread on post-damage assessment. Possibly 9-10 planes destroyed, others damaged.
That thread has some pre-attack imagery, used to get an idea of what air assets were present at the base. I don't see any information there about post-attack damage assessment, aside from a reply with a brief video of one destroyed SU-24. Did you intend to link a different thread?
You know, now that I look at it more closely, there is no real post-damage assessment, just speculation. All the other threads also just have speculation based on size and number of explosions and rudimentary attempts at correlating their locations with pre-strike imagery. Sorry about that.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Apollo »

This is great news, but the idea that it is the worst single day in history for the Russian air force is a vast overstatement. The Russians lost nearly 2,000 aircraft on June 22nd, 1941. The Psychological impact of this strike, though, looks to be significant.

It's hard to say who has the upper hand right now. Every other week it seems like the other side is winning... :confusion-shrug:
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Re: Ukraine

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Re: Ukraine

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Apollo wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 12:24 pm This is great news, but the idea that it is the worst single day in history for the Russian air force is a vast overstatement. The Russians lost nearly 2,000 aircraft on June 22nd, 1941. The Psychological impact of this strike, though, looks to be significant.

Guessing they're distinguishing between Soviet Union and Russia.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by dbt1949 »

I just read on line somebody calling Crimea National Lampoon's Russian Vacation Center.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

Man we've come full circle now as German guns are once again killing Russians.
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Apollo
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Apollo »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 12:36 pm
Apollo wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 12:24 pm This is great news, but the idea that it is the worst single day in history for the Russian air force is a vast overstatement. The Russians lost nearly 2,000 aircraft on June 22nd, 1941. The Psychological impact of this strike, though, looks to be significant.

Guessing they're distinguishing between Soviet Union and Russia.
But then it's a worthless statistic, since you'd only be talking about the last 30yrs.

Edit: I just imagined how freaked out Russians would have been in 1941 had social media existed in the forms we have today. :o :shock: :(
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

It's not even a statistic, it's just hyperbole. The guy who tweeted it didn't know how many aircraft the Russians lost. At best he had an idea of the likely number of aircraft that were on the ground prior to the attack.

If helicopters count, this probably isn't even the worst day for Russia in terms of aircraft lost in this war. Back in March, they reportedly lost something on the order of 30 helicopters in one of the artillery strikes targetting Russian forces at Kherson International Airport.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Alefroth »

Apollo wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:54 pm But then it's a worthless statistic, since you'd only be talking about the last 30yrs.
I'm going to need an explainer for this one.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by El Guapo »

Alefroth wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:25 pm
Apollo wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 10:54 pm But then it's a worthless statistic, since you'd only be talking about the last 30yrs.
I'm going to need an explainer for this one.
They're talking about the claim that the strike on this Russian air base was the worst day for the Russian air force ever. Technically Russia has only existed as an independent country for 30 years, since before then it was part of the Soviet Union, although in practice the Soviet Union was Russia + countries conquered by Russia (well, Russia also existed as a country before 1918, although the Russian air force pre-1918 was a proto-force if it existed at all).
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Alefroth »

Thanks. I was reading 30 days.
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Re: Ukraine

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Isgrimnur »

:clap:
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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raydude
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Re: Ukraine

Post by raydude »

CNN article on the recent explosions at Crimean Air base. At least 8 aircraft damaged as well as ammunition and storage depots. While that may not sound like much, it is likely the case that air assets will be redeployed elsewhere due to losses of the depots and possible supporting machinery. Not to mention that Russian high command probably thinks Saki air base is now vulnerable to future attacks.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Holman »

Apollo wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 12:24 pm This is great news, but the idea that it is the worst single day in history for the Russian air force is a vast overstatement. The Russians lost nearly 2,000 aircraft on June 22nd, 1941. The Psychological impact of this strike, though, looks to be significant.
Scale has changed very significantly. Modern armies are about supporting a small number of well-equipped soldiers with a huge amount of logistics and training and mechanized equipment. In WW2 (especially on the Eastern Front), it was absolutely the other way around.

This goes for air forces as well. In WW2, the Soviets could build their air force in the same factories they used to make automobiles. These days, warplanes are built in factories more like those that make space satellites.
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Max Peck
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Ukraine hits Russian Wagner mercenary HQ in east
Ukrainian artillery has struck a headquarters of Russia's shadowy Wagner paramilitary group of mercenaries in eastern Ukraine, reports say.

The attack in Popasna was reported by Serhiy Hayday, Ukrainian governor of Luhansk region, and several pro-Kremlin war reporters.

The number of casualties is not clear and details remain sketchy. Photos said to show the damage were posted on the Telegram messaging service.
On Telegram, Governor Hayday wrote that Ukrainian forces "hit an enemy HQ whose whereabouts were established thanks to a Russian journalist".

"This time the successful strike destroyed the Wagner PMC HQ in Popasna yesterday," he said. He added that "the number of dead is being clarified".

The Ukrainian daily Ukrainska Pravda reports that a pro-Kremlin Russian journalist, Sergei Sreda, revealed the Wagner HQ in a Telegram post on 8 August. He posted photos of his visit to the HQ and a sign in one of them identified its address as Mironovskaya 12, Popasna.

The post was later removed, but copies are circulating on social media.
Another pro-Kremlin war reporter, called Kotenok, wrote on Telegram: "A strike was carried out on one of the Wagner PMC locations in Popasna. Sources in Donbas confirm that. Probably 'Himars'. Ukrainian sources report the death of Prigozhin - we don't confirm that."
Yevgeny Prigozhin is the oligarch and Putin crony alleged to be behind Wagner Group, so it's probably wishful thinking that he was present at the site when it was struck, but sometimes wishes do come true. :coffee:
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

That would be some very nice news if it ends up being true.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

Bet that reporter is in trouble.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by LordMortis »

:pray:
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

I've seen a report that one of the photos published by the Russian journalist that compromised the Wagner location showed Prigozhin, so that might be the source of rumors that he was killed. The photos were several days old by the time the building was hit, though.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Russia continues to have workplace safety issues.

Ukraine war: Russia blames sabotage for new Crimea blasts
A week after an apparent Ukrainian attack on a Russian military base in occupied Crimea, an arms store at another military facility has been hit by a series of explosions.

Russian officials said a fire triggered the blasts in the Dzhankoi area, before blaming "sabotage".

A separate fire broke out at a power sub-station and a railway was damaged.

A string of blasts last week destroyed Russian warplanes at a Black Sea base on the Crimean coast.

Ukraine has never publicly admitted that attack - but presidential office adviser Mykhailo Podolyak described the latest incident as "demilitarisation in action", indicating that the explosions were not accidental.

A Ukrainian air force command spokesman said the base was used by some of Russia's military helicopters, but blamed the blasts on Russia failing to observe fire precautions.

Russia gave no indication of the kind of sabotage involved in Tuesday's attack, but the FSB security service said Ukrainian saboteurs had also blown up six electricity pylons this month inside Russia itself.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by LordMortis »

Russia gave no indication of the kind of sabotage involved in Tuesday's attack, but the FSB security service said Ukrainian saboteurs had also blown up six electricity pylons this month inside Russia itself.
Wow Hard to say much about that. Taking it to Russia seems like the way toward resolution but it also seems like a way reduce sympathy. Deep inside, emotionally, I support such action even if I'm not sure of its wisdom. Back in February, who'da thunk they'd be talking of taking back Crimea and hitting inside Russia?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Alefroth »

You're taking the pylon story with a huge grain of salt, right?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Isgrimnur »

You Must Construct Additional Pylons!
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

Alefroth wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 2:13 pm You're taking the pylon story with a huge grain of salt, right?
Not even salt. The Russians are liars. The safest default is to never believe their claims barring independent witnesses/evidence and then it'll probably still be some lie dressed up to hide something else.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Isgrimnur »

If only there were some way to independently verify whether or not a pylon was still standing...

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Re: Ukraine

Post by UsulofDoom »

Anyone know why the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is still operating ? Is both Ukraine and Russia using the electricity? If Ukraine is not getting the electricity, then just blow up all the sub stations and power lines towers leading to it. Then what would be the reason to keep it in operation .
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

Maybe Jesus just really really loves Russia.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by raydude »

UsulofDoom wrote: Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:48 pm Anyone know why the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is still operating ? Is both Ukraine and Russia using the electricity? If Ukraine is not getting the electricity, then just blow up all the sub stations and power lines towers leading to it. Then what would be the reason to keep it in operation .
I'm no nuclear engineer but maybe you can't just pull the plug and shutdown an active nuclear reactor. And if it's anything like the Chernyobl plant back when Russians surrounded it, the plant engineers are probably working at gunpoint. And finally, it works as a nuclear shield. Park some Russian artillery and rocket launchers near the plant and you are instantly protected from HIMARS, partisan sabotage, etc.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

raydude wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:37 am
UsulofDoom wrote: Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:48 pm Anyone know why the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is still operating ? Is both Ukraine and Russia using the electricity? If Ukraine is not getting the electricity, then just blow up all the sub stations and power lines towers leading to it. Then what would be the reason to keep it in operation .
I'm no nuclear engineer but maybe you can't just pull the plug and shutdown an active nuclear reactor.
Right. Shutdown is possible but outside an emergency it takes hours. You safely/slowly drop in the control rods and the reaction will moderate, temperatures will drop, and such.

Bigger picture is that both sides likely need the power irrespective of its control. It's relatively hard to partition a grid in current conditions. I don't know how they split up their grid but it isn't going to be generally be neat and happen to match up with battle control positions, etc. So it is something they probably cooperate on to some extent.
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