Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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gbasden
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by gbasden »

LordMortis wrote: Thu Nov 24, 2022 7:45 am
Mom fell and broke her arm yesterday, tearing muscle from the bone. They can't get someone in to operate until Monday.
I'm so sorry! How awful that it happened on Thanksgiving as well!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

She still fed like 25 people (many of which are not vacced and have not regard for public health). That's mom. I don't understand medicine but if they think they can wait until Monday and mom says she's not in pain, shug. I'd think having no muscles attached at the elbow and broken bones could do a lot "healing" in a bad way in five days.

With regard to COVID and not its effects on the System, now the floodgates are open. That was a first for her and for me. So I guess we see what happens. I only suck around for about 90 minutes but they will have stuck around for a long time and it was in my parent's house with closed doors. So now this might be the catalyst to actually go out occasionally beyond intimate gaming or in out deserted restaurant lunch right when a place opens.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

:shock:


For the second day in a row, China has recorded an explosive increase in coronavirus infections.

In the city of Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong province, which has the largest number of cases, the construction of a quarantine center for 80,000 people has begun.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Blackhawk »

That is 'begun?' Damn, that's some efficient beginning. My first thought is that it will fall over the first time the wind blows. My second thought is, "Table Five! You are in last place."
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Yeah, it's pretty crazy how they throw that stuff together. If you'd like to read more about what's happening (and what it means for us), article to Axios.

Reality check: China’s doctors have warned Xi Jinping that the healthcare system isn't prepared for the huge outbreak likely to follow the easing of strict anti-COVID measures, the Financial Times reports. Chinese-made vaccines, which don't use the mRNA technology employed by many produced by the West, aren't as effective compared to those made in the U.S. And China has worrisomely low vaccination rates among older people. But the number of cases in China is actually still very low for anywhere but China.
Of note:
Why it matters: In addition to the human misery for the world's most populous country, the effects will be felt around the globe, Axios China author Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian reports from Taipei. Supply chains are likely to be disrupted, causing prices to rise in an already rocky global economy.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Blackhawk »

We had Thanksgiving tonight at my mother-in-law-ish's place. She has a small apartment, probably ~350 square feet, not counting the bedroom. By the time the family arrived, and the family's kids, and the the family's kids' girlfriends, we had 17 people jammed into that room, and some of them are hard-right, anti-vaxx types.

If anyone in that room had COVID, everyone in that room has COVID.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

LordMortis wrote: Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:14 am She still fed like 25 people (many of which are not vacced and have not regard for public health). That's mom. I don't understand medicine but if they think they can wait until Monday and mom says she's not in pain, shug. I'd think having no muscles attached at the elbow and broken bones could do a lot "healing" in a bad way in five days.

With regard to COVID and not its effects on the System, now the floodgates are open. That was a first for her and for me. So I guess we see what happens. I only suck around for about 90 minutes but they will have stuck around for a long time and it was in my parent's house with closed doors. So now this might be the catalyst to actually go out occasionally beyond intimate gaming or in out deserted restaurant lunch right when a place opens.
Mom is out of surgery. Surgery had no complications, which I am ecstatic for, as they let her have an actually broken, not just fractured, elbow with detached muscles for five days. And I am assuming if COVID, itself, would have reared its head on Turkey Day in her house, then would tested positive by today.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

LordMortis wrote: Mon Nov 28, 2022 12:05 pm
LordMortis wrote: Sat Nov 26, 2022 10:14 am She still fed like 25 people (many of which are not vacced and have not regard for public health). That's mom. I don't understand medicine but if they think they can wait until Monday and mom says she's not in pain, shug. I'd think having no muscles attached at the elbow and broken bones could do a lot "healing" in a bad way in five days.

With regard to COVID and not its effects on the System, now the floodgates are open. That was a first for her and for me. So I guess we see what happens. I only suck around for about 90 minutes but they will have stuck around for a long time and it was in my parent's house with closed doors. So now this might be the catalyst to actually go out occasionally beyond intimate gaming or in out deserted restaurant lunch right when a place opens.
Mom is out of surgery. Surgery had no complications, which I am ecstatic for, as they let her have an actually broken, not just fractured, elbow with detached muscles for five days. And I am assuming if COVID, itself, would have reared its head on Turkey Day in her house, then would tested positive by today.
Whew!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

As we head into final month of 2022:


Number of Americans hospitalized with COVID-19 tops 32,000, highest in more than 2 months
Cases/Hospitalizations/ICU numbers all jumped here in NJ, but you'd never know.
US Covid hospital admissions are up nearly 20% in the past 2 weeks, and it's mostly seniors who have not been recently boosted, along with a lesser % of those unvaccinated
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

I mentioned it in the infectious disease thread but our ER is seeing a surge in RSV and flu, in addition to baseline COVID (and the usual accidents/shootings/etc).

We don't have any pediatric beds, other than neonatal, but ped beds are running out everywhere else so we're getting more kids.

Good news is that citywide COVID occupied beds are around 4%.

No reporting available for RSV.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

For the MA folks (mainly because MA visibly shares and promotes the data), here's your snapshot of wastewater surveillance. Spoiler: Stay vigilant

Image
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

Our local wastewater monitoring is currently showing a gradual decrease in the COVID. They've also expanded the project to include influenza and RSV.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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China faces a Covid disaster of their own making:
We found that if covid were allowed to spread unchecked 96% of the population would end up catching it, with new infections peaking at 45m people a day after a month. In this scenario, fatalities would reach 680,000, assuming no lack of icus. But China would need 410,000 icu beds at the peak of the outbreak, which is almost seven times the current total. That suggests the true number of deaths would in fact be much higher. It could be reduced by widespread use of antiviral drugs (this scenario assumes that only 10% of patients will receive them), but the extent of China’s stocks is unknown.
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Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

:D

In more serious news, Hello darkness my old friend:
Things are once again going in the wrong direction in the United States. Hospitalizations have jumped by 25% in recent days, along with ICUs, test positivity, wastewater surveillance virus levels, and even cases, which have been grossly under-diagnosed because of home rapid antigen testing or no testing.

Seniors, particularly those without a booster or one in the past 6 months, are bearing most of the brunt with the sharp ascent seen below, already surpassing the summer BA.5 wave nationally. The increase in hospital admits is also seen for age 50+ and all ages, yet not as sharp. The unvaccinated are part of this, too, but recent CDC data and the Kaiser Family Foundation analysis demonstrated that, with most seniors having 2 shots, more of the deaths in recent months are among those without a booster shot.
He goes into a lot of detail about specific strains and then what's happening globally. What does it all mean?
The hope is that we’ll not see a major wave in the weeks ahead, but there’s lots of uncertainty, especially in the United States. A recent preprint from Harvard Chan School of Public Health suggested that 94% of Americans have had Covid at least once (95% confidence intervals 79, 99%) . I found that point estimate hard to believe, not having had Covid and knowing so many people who have not (with nucleocapsid antibody negativity). Putting aside that absolute number, we’ve had a heck of a lot of Covid infections, and reinfections, that together with vaccinations and boosters have built a fairly formidable immunity wall (albeit perhaps less formidable than many countries in Europe, and for a different reason Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan and others with their much higher vaccination/booster rates).

...

The main point is that we’re not doing what we can do to reduce the toll of the virus. That means for everyone (especially age 50+) getting a booster and using mitigation measures appropriately. It also means we’re poorly equipped to ever keep up with the virus, no less get ahead of it, having lost the power of monoclonal antibodies as a backstop and for the immunocompromised. This represents a do nothing posture and extends to not aggressively going after nasal vaccines and pan-β-coronavirus vaccines. The idea that current boosters could be used and effective on an annual basis is balderdash, given their durability is less than 6 months.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

As COVID-19 continues to fade from prominence, the number of hospitalized seniors is rising:
One troubling indicator for seniors: Hospitalizations for people with COVID-19 rose by more than 30% in two weeks. Much of the increase is driven by older people and those with existing health problems, said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The numbers include everyone testing positive, no matter why they are admitted.

When it comes to protecting seniors, “we’re doing a terrible job of that in this country,” said Dr. Eric Topol, head of Scripps Research Translational Institute.
Of note:
Nationally, the rate of daily hospital admissions for those 70 and older with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 rose from 8.8 per 100,000 people on Nov. 15, to 12.1 per 100,000 people on Dec. 6, according to statistics from the Department of Health and Human Services. In California and New York, Topol said, hospitalizations for seniors with COVID-19 have already surpassed those during spring and summer omicron waves.
(emphasis added)

Finally:
The ultimate worry is that more seniors will die. Last spring and summer, death rates declined overall as more people gained protection from vaccination and prior infection. But the share of COVID-19–related deaths for the oldest old — adults 85 and older, who make up 2% of the population — grew to 40%.
I'm getting the sense people are ok with this.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Hospital COVID census is going back up, looking like March/April 2022 numbers.

Chicago wastewater showing big increase too.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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China exploding again...
Empty streets, deserted shopping centers, and residents staying away from one another are the new normal in Beijing – but not because the city, like many Chinese ones before it, is under a “zero-Covid” lockdown.

This time, it’s because Beijing has been hit with a significant, and spreading, outbreak – a first for the Chinese capital since the beginning of the pandemic, a week after leaders eased the country’s restrictive Covid policy.

The impact of the outbreak in the city was visible in the upmarket shopping district Sanlitun on Tuesday. There, the usually bustling shops and restaurants were without customers and, in some cases, functioning on skeleton crews or offering takeout only.

Similar scenes are playing out across Beijing, as offices, shops and residential communities report being understaffed or shifting working arrangements as employees fall ill with the virus. Meanwhile, others stay home to avoid being infected...

... One community worker told CNN that 21 of the 24 workers on her Beijing neighborhood committee office, tasked with coordinating residential matters and activities, had fallen ill in recent days.

“As our superiors are mostly infected, there’s not much work being given to us,” said the employee, Sylvia Sun. “(The usual) events, lectures, performances, parent-child activities will definitely not be held.”

Beijing, which prior to the new rules was already experiencing a small-scale outbreak, is now on the front lines of a new reality for China: not since the early days of the pandemic in Wuhan have Chinese cities dealt with an outbreak without hefty control measures in place.

But for a place that until earlier this month assiduously tracked every case, there is now no clear data on the extent of the virus’ spread. China’s new Covid rules significantly rolled back the testing requirements
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by gilraen »

New variants incoming in three...two...one...
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

Interesting that Colorado's numbers are all improvements this week vs last. Wasn't expecting that given the nationwide trend.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

I don't trust state reporting data anymore. My state has been reporting ~2K a day for weeks now and there's just no way it's true. They've done everything they can to suppress and discourage testing and the front-end data reflects it. However, what I see behind the scenes on a town-by-town level report doesn't match the forward facing data. Beyond frustrating, but everything looks super.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by gilraen »

Even if state was genuinely interested in reporting correct numbers, I don't see how they could possibly obtain those numbers when someone just uses an at-home test, tests positive, but isn't sick enough to bother going to the doctor (like I did).

The wastewater reporting, on the other hand, is showing a significant increase.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

I don't trust the specific #s, but the trends seem like they'd roughly line up week to week. IOW these numbers are specifically crap, but they're crappy in the same general way as last week's.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

gilraen wrote: Thu Dec 15, 2022 3:39 pm The wastewater reporting, on the other hand, is showing a significant increase.
Oh for sure - I think it's all part of the plan (because I'm cynical) - anything and everything to discourage testing that would be required to enter an official data stream. If they're going to encourage anything it's at-home testing because no one has to know.

For wastewater, I'm really only following the Boston area, mainly because they actively share.


MWRA (Boston-area) wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral levels seem to be punching through post-Omicron record highs. (through 12/12/22)
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kraken »

The covid/flu/RSV numbers are going to soar after xmas, and hospitals are already beyond full.

At least 10% of shoppers were wearing masks in the grocery store today. Maybe 15%. That's the most I've seen in a long while.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

Is COVID a Common Cold Yet?

(Betteridge's Law applies)
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Large audience update on the situation in China:
China is likely to see an explosion of COVID-19 cases in coming weeks, experts say, as the country lifts its long-standing and highly unpopular zero-COVID policy.

China is extremely vulnerable right now because its population – especially older adults, who are the most likely to suffer severe disease – is undervaccinated, has no natural immunity from infection and a limited supply of treatments.

Experts predict hundreds of millions of infections and as many as 1.5 million to 2 million deaths.

"I think China is going to blow in the next six to 12 weeks," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, in a Thursday webinar. "Instead of falling off a 5-foot cliff, we're going to watch them fall off a 1,000-foot cliff."
Yeah, but that's China. What does it mean for America?
A raging epidemic in China could be bad news for controlling the virus in the U.S., he and other experts said, because travelers will arrive sick and the chances of mutation increase anytime a virus infects a lot of people.
Oh, right, right.
Any time a virus rages out of control, especially in a population as large as China's, there is a good chance that new variants will develop, said Dr. Jeremy Luban, an expert in viruses at the UMass Chan Medical School.

The variants now circulating in China seem to be the ones that have been most prevalent here, including the omicron subvariants BA.5 and BQ.1. 

"There's no specific reason to be concerned other than that a lot of infections are bad for evolution of new things that we can't predict," Luban said Wednesday on a Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness media call. "The more the rate of infection can be controlled in China, the better."
Any time a virus rages out of control...so, like the last 2.5+ years?
The U.S. carefully monitors for infections and variants among travelers, using wastewater and other means, said Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, in a Thursday news conference.

"If new variants emerge, I'm confident we'll be able to address them," he said. 
If by "address" he means "continue to ignore", then I agree.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

This is fine. Everything is fine.


SARS-Cov2 “sequencing has dropped 90%.”…“This will bite us.”
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Shanghai schools go online:
China's largest city, Shanghai, has ordered most of its schools to take classes online as Covid cases soar.

Nurseries and childcare centres will also shut from Monday, according to Shanghai's education bureau.

Restrictions were eased by Chinese authorities earlier this month following a wave of protests targeting China's zero-Covid strategy.

...

In a statement posted on Chinese social media site WeChat on Saturday, Shanghai's education bureau announced that most year groups in primary and secondary schools would move to online learning from Monday.

Students and children who do not have alternative childcare arrangements can apply to attend school.

The statement said the measures were being put in place in order to protect the health of teachers and students in line with current coronavirus prevention measures.

The decision means that schools in the country's financial hub will be closed for in-person learning until the end of term on 17 January, when the Lunar New Year holiday starts.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Ok then, one for the folks that like random facts:
"Recently, the deputy director of China CDC, Xiaofeng Liang, who' s a good friend of mine, was announcing through the public media that the first COVID wave may, in fact, infect around 60% of the population," says Xi Chen, who's a global health researcher at Yale University and an expert on China's health-care system.

That means about 10% of the planet's population may become infected over the course of the next 90 days.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Smoove_B wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 2:15 pm My belief is that we're not going to vaccinate ourselves out of this anytime soon.
Just figured I'd dig that chestnut up as this study is hitting the news:
Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

More on China:


1/ From the outset, it is very important to recognise that a humanitarian catastrophe is currently unfolding in China. Analysis of this situation is not incompatible with recognising the horror of the situation.
Of note:
13/ Precursor chemicals used in the manufacture of pharmaceuticals are exported primarily from three countries: the US, India, and China. In the context of both inevitable negative supply chain impacts from China, and the recent unprecedented demand for antibiotics...14/... in other parts of the world, it is likely that the global supply chain for pharmaceuticals will be significantly disrupted. This, of course, will have negative population health impacts globally. 15/ If you are taking regular medication for a chronic condition, now might be a good time to request an extra supply from your healthcare provider.
You can read the unrolled thread here
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

Congratudolences?

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Missed this from a few days ago:
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu and Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker are joining 23 other Republican governors in calling on President Joe Biden to end the COVID national emergency.

The governors wrote in a letter to the White House that "the emergency phase of the pandemic is behind us" and "it is time we move on."
The push to ignore what is plainly happening in front of us is like nothing I've ever experienced. I really am beginning to think I'm living in this world.

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Keep working! Consume!


Now at a 25 year low, life expectancy in the US continues to fall. Covid persists as the 3rd leading cause of death and increasing ~20% over 2020
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Zaxxon »

Some possibly positive news?

Pandemic response gets a permanent new home at the White House.
The new director’s main responsibilities would be to advise the president on preparing for pandemics and other biological threats, to coordinate response activities across the federal government — including research into new countermeasures and distribution of medical supplies — and to evaluate the government’s readiness. The director would also be a member of the Domestic Policy Council and the National Security Council.

“The functions outlined are exactly what is needed at the White House, and what I’ve been calling for for years, to avoid having any single agency take the lead on something that overlaps most departments in the U.S. government,” said Ken Bernard, who worked in biodefense policy in both the Clinton and George W. Bush White Houses.
It'll probably be under-funded and largely ignored, but hey, there's an office now!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Zaxxon wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:32 pm It'll probably be under-funded and largely ignored, but hey, there's an office now!
Resident Eeyore checking in. The funding isn't really the worry right now. Instead it's whether or not someone will be put in that position that will actually say what needs to be said or if they'll be another mouthpiece for the administration (like Jha) has been.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by coopasonic »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 1:02 pm
Now at a 25 year low, life expectancy in the US continues to fall. Covid persists as the 3rd leading cause of death and increasing ~20% over 2020
Hey they are just making it easier for people to retire. If you don't live as long you don't need the same level of resources. You're welcome!
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

coopasonic wrote: Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:49 pm Hey they are just making it easier for people to retire. If you don't live as long you don't need the same level of resources. You're welcome!
Well, that's certainly one perspective. :)

Going back to China, estimates on what's happening are much more severe than the official numbers, not surprisingly:
More than 5,000 people are probably dying each day from COVID-19 in China, health data firm Airfinity estimated, offering a dramatic contrast to official data from Beijing on the country's current outbreak.

The UK-based firm said it had used modelling based on regional Chinese data to produce figures that also put current daily infections in the country at above a million.

Its estimates were "in stark contrast to the official data which is reporting 1,800 cases and only seven official deaths over the past week," it said in a statement.
Given how much we're downplaying and obfuscating data here in the US, no one should be surprised China is doing the same. It continues to be hilarious to me that in my own state hospitalizations and ICU use climbs but up until yesterday, the number of cases was hovering around 2K. Yesterday it jumped to 3K, a number we haven't seen since September. School districts are helping to keep it all fuzzy as well. It's amazing to me. If a kid has head lice in a school, people freak the hell out and parents lose their minds if the kid is back in school the next day. But COVID? Nah. We don't wanna know about COVID. It's fine. Everything is fine.

Anyway, we're still hovering around 300 people a day dying of COVID - far below what China is experiencing. But an additional ~110K deaths a year that we're apparently comfortable with as we round the corner into another pandemic winter is something else.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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Max Peck
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Max Peck »

People are comfortable with it, by and large, because they don't believe that they're heading into another pandemic winter. And in some cases I've come to believe that they absolutely are not comfortable with it and they cope by burying their heads in the sand and pretending things are normal.

The messaging here has been mixed. The provincial CMO (mister "immunity debt") was quoted a few days ago as saying that the flu epidemic may have peaked. "May" is pulling a lot of weight there, given that the most recent local wastewater signal for flu was climbing steadily when he said it. The publicly available local wastewater data hasn't been updated since 4 Dec, so who knows what is actually going on with it. Meanwhile the head of the local public health department is begging people to mask up in crowded indoor spaces, get vaccinated (against flu and COVID) and take precautions at holiday family/social gatherings because things are going to get worse as we go through the holidays and into the new year. Especially if people party like it's 2019.
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