Ukraine

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Unagi
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

Alefroth wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 4:09 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Wed Jan 04, 2023 4:08 pm Unless stated otherwise, please assume 98% of my posts are sarcasm. :D
Likewise. Wait, that must have been sarcasm =)
Well, if it was - then it wasn't.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

With my remarks on invading Russia while they are busy and weak I was more thinking of the places Russia attacked and subjugated in the past. I remember them fighting rebels not many years ago. Maybe just seize their oil fields and such . Not talking a full invasion to get rid of Russia.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

Belarus looks ready to try to invade again. I hope Ukraine can take them out then counter invade Belarus and stop them once and for all.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by $iljanus »

Daehawk wrote: Fri Jan 06, 2023 5:22 pm Belarus looks ready to try to invade again. I hope Ukraine can take them out then counter invade Belarus and stop them once and for all.
I don’t think Ukraine is in the position to invade anyone. Even with their success on the field they have taken large losses and do not have the logistical capability for an invasion of another country. If Belarus decides to get involved (their military wasn’t involved in the current invasion) it would probably make more strategic sense to let them come to the Ukrainians to die.
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Re: Ukraine

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

What on earth were those two guys doing at the end of that video? The single 'blind shot' over the plywood... I can't imagine what value that would have - in the manner and rate at which they were doing it...
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Re: Ukraine

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https://apnews.com/article/putin-politi ... d45c21313e

ST. PETERSBURG, Russia (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Moscow’s action in Ukraine was intended to stop a “war” that has raged in eastern Ukraine for many years.

Speaking at a meeting with veterans, Putin said Moscow had long sought to negotiate a settlement to the conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas, an eastern industrial region where Russia-backed separatists have battled Ukrainian forces since 2014.

“Large-scale combat operations involving heavy weapons, artillery, tanks and aircraft haven’t stopped in Donbas since 2014,” Putin said. “All that we are doing today as part of the special military operation is an attempt to stop this war. This is the meaning of our operation — protecting people who live on those territories.”

Putin insisted again that Russia tried to negotiate a peaceful settlement to the separatist conflict before sending in troops, and said “we were just duped and cheated.”
Insert Firefly speechless gif here
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Re: Ukraine

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Unagi wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:10 am What on earth were those two guys doing at the end of that video? The single 'blind shot' over the plywood... I can't imagine what value that would have - in the manner and rate at which they were doing it...
That was a grenade launcher. It's mounted under the rifle barrel, you can see the smoke coming out after it's fired. Also, telltale sound.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by El Guapo »

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:17 am https://apnews.com/article/putin-politi ... d45c21313e

ST. PETERSBURG, Russia (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Moscow’s action in Ukraine was intended to stop a “war” that has raged in eastern Ukraine for many years.

Speaking at a meeting with veterans, Putin said Moscow had long sought to negotiate a settlement to the conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas, an eastern industrial region where Russia-backed separatists have battled Ukrainian forces since 2014.

“Large-scale combat operations involving heavy weapons, artillery, tanks and aircraft haven’t stopped in Donbas since 2014,” Putin said. “All that we are doing today as part of the special military operation is an attempt to stop this war. This is the meaning of our operation — protecting people who live on those territories.”

Putin insisted again that Russia tried to negotiate a peaceful settlement to the separatist conflict before sending in troops, and said “we were just duped and cheated.”
Insert Firefly speechless gif here
You know, as Russian government statements go, this one is pretty accurate! There has been fighting in the Donbas since 2014 (driven by forces supported by Russia). The Russian military operation *is* intended to end that (by allowing Russia to conquer and annex eastern Ukraine and/or bring Ukraine generally under Russian control).
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:49 am
Unagi wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:10 am What on earth were those two guys doing at the end of that video? The single 'blind shot' over the plywood... I can't imagine what value that would have - in the manner and rate at which they were doing it...
That was a grenade launcher. It's mounted under the rifle barrel, you can see the smoke coming out after it's fired. Also, telltale sound.
I feel silly, I clearly wasn't looking at that close enough. It's obvious now. Thanks.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:17 am https://apnews.com/article/putin-politi ... d45c21313e
Putin insisted again that Russia tried to negotiate a peaceful settlement to the separatist conflict before sending in troops, and said “we were just duped and cheated.”
I fixed that sloppy translation error for them. :coffee:
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Re: Ukraine

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Grifman »

Heh:

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

It seems the ball may be in Poland's court now.

Minister: Germany won’t block Poland giving Ukraine tanks
The German government will not object if Poland decides to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, Germany’s top diplomat said Sunday, indicating movement on supplying weapons that Kyiv has described as essential to its ability to fend off an intensified Russian offensive.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told French TV channel LCI that Poland has not formally asked for Berlin’s approval to share some of its German-made Leopards but added “if we were asked, we would not stand in the way.”

German officials “know how important these tanks are” and “this is why we are discussing this now with our partners,” Baerbock said in interview clips posted by LCI.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that if the fellow NATO and European Unio member did not consent to transferring Leopard tanks to Ukraine, his country was prepared to build a “smaller coalition” of countries that would send theirs anyway.

“Almost a year had passed since the outbreak of war,” Morawiecki said in an interview with Polish state news agency PAP published Sunday. “Evidence of the Russian army’s war crimes can be seen on television and on YouTube. What more does Germany need to open its eyes and start to act in line with the potential of the German state?”

Previously, some officials in Poland indicated that Finland and Denmark also were ready to send Leopards to Ukraine.
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Re: Ukraine

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Grifman wrote: Sun Jan 22, 2023 12:42 pm Heh:
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Re: Ukraine

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So the Leopard may have some company as the US finalizes plans to send M-1 tanks to Ukraine

This could explain Germany’s softening of their position on sending Leopard 2 tanks. There’s going to be a lot of training and support needed to get Ukrainians up to speed on the Abrams but perhaps they’ll make an appearance during the summer fighting season. In the meantime, I think the Leopard 2 and British Challenger tank can do the heavy lifting for now along with some Bradleys and Strykers to exploit openings in the line.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Kraken »

I learned that the Abrams burns jet fuel rather than diesel and gets 1/3 mpg. It's going to take a lot of infrastructure and training to support those beasts. Kinda makes me wonder how useful they really are.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by dbt1949 »

Plus Abrams are made for tank battles. Not sure how useful they will be in this war.
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Re: Ukraine

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Kraken wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:26 pm I learned that the Abrams burns jet fuel rather than diesel and gets 1/3 mpg. It's going to take a lot of infrastructure and training to support those beasts. Kinda makes me wonder how useful they really are.
If sending a few was enough peer pressure to convince Germany to allow the transfer of Leopards then mission accomplished.

Also, the logistics and maintenance may be challenging but I'm sure the Ukrainians would find a way to make it work so the Leopards and the small number of Challengers would be at the forefront but the Abrams would be a formidable reserve or can operate effectively in certain limited roles.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Alefroth »

Kraken wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:26 pm I learned that the Abrams burns jet fuel rather than diesel and gets 1/3 mpg. It's going to take a lot of infrastructure and training to support those beasts. Kinda makes me wonder how useful they really are.
Pretty sure it's multifuel.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Alefroth wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:55 pm
Kraken wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:26 pm I learned that the Abrams burns jet fuel rather than diesel and gets 1/3 mpg. It's going to take a lot of infrastructure and training to support those beasts. Kinda makes me wonder how useful they really are.
Pretty sure it's multifuel.
Yup, the internets say it's multifuel (Diesel, Jet fuel, Gasoline, Marine Diesel).
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Re: Ukraine

Post by paulbaxter »

A closer look at the Wagner group. Don't know how many sensitive souls wander into R&P, but they probably shouldn't read this.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1 ... gner-Group
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

paulbaxter wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 10:29 pm A closer look at the Wagner group. Don't know how many sensitive souls wander into R&P, but they probably shouldn't read this.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1 ... gner-Group
FWIW while the Wagner group has a reputation for brutality and lack of professionalism, much of this information comes from an unknown source and could be misinformation. One thing to consider is that there is sourced, much more reliable information that Prigozhin and Putin are sparring. Prigozhin has been trying to take credit for symbolic victories in Ukraine (e.g. Soledar) and appeared to be trying to undermine Putin's trust in the Russian military. That leaves a lot of space for disinformation campaigns even within the 'Russian space'.

Over the last few days, this has turned into a full-blown propaganda campaign in the Russian mil-blogger space.
Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s star has begun to set after months of apparent rise following his failure to make good on promises of capturing Bakhmut with his own forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had likely turned to Prigozhin and Prigozhin’s reported ally, Army General Sergey Surovikin, to continue efforts to gain ground and break the will of Ukraine and its Western backers to continue the war after the conventional Russian military had culminated and, indeed, suffered disastrous setbacks.[1] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and General Staff, headed by Sergey Shoigu and Army General Valeriy Gerasimov respectively, had turned their attention to mobilizing Russian reservists and conscripts and setting conditions for improved performance by the conventional Russian military, but they had little hope of achieving anything decisive in the Fall and early Winter of 2022. Putin apparently decided to give Prigozhin and Surovikin a chance to show what they could do with mobilized prisoners, on the one hand, and a brutal air campaign targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure on the other. Both efforts failed, as Prigozhin’s attempts to seize Bakhmut culminated and Surovikin’s air campaign accomplished little more than inflicting suffering on Ukrainian civilians while expending most of Russia’s remaining stocks of precision missiles. Prigozhin seems to have decided in this period that his star really was on the ascendant and that he could challenge Gerasimov and even Shoigu for preeminence in Russian military affairs. Those hopes now seem to have been delusional.

Putin appears to have decided to turn away from relying on Prigozhin and his irregular forces and to put his trust instead in Gerasimov, Shoigu, and the conventional Russian military once more.

Putin began to re-centralize control of the war effort under the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) in early December.[2] He gave Gerasimov overall command of the Joint Grouping of Forces in Ukraine on January 11, subordinating Surovikin to Gerasimov along with two other deputies.[3] The Russian MoD announced large-scale reforms to expand and reconstitute the Russian Armed Forces on January 17.[4] Ukrainian intelligence and select Kremlin officials have also reported that Putin is preparing to launch a second wave of reserve mobilization to expand the Russian Armed Forces, and the Russian MoD has been attempting to improve the professionalism of its conventional forces and to test the effectiveness of its chains of command.[5] Such reforms and appointments mark a significant inflection in the Kremlin’s efforts to reconstitute its conventional military and a deemphasis of short-term mitigation efforts such as the use of irregular formations on the frontlines.
In the end, the Russians have a lot of internal discord, their most brutal killers (Wagner and the Chechens) didn't work, and they are appearing to be falling back to reliance on the incompetent Russian military which may very well continue to mismanage this war. All of which is good news.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Carpet_pissr »

That’s hopeful. I keep worrying that at some point they will get their shit together and start being competent. Hell, mediocrity would probably be enough considering their relative size and resources.
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Re: Ukraine

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One nit that's been bothering me lately - I wish media outlets would stop referring to the Wagner Group as a "mercenary group". It's not. As I understand it, they're a military organization that formally is not a part of the Russian government but which in practice works exclusively for and with the Russian government (and which is not generally available to hire). That makes it a paramilitary organization, not a mercenary group.
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Re: Ukraine

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dbt1949 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:43 pm Plus Abrams are made for tank battles. Not sure how useful they will be in this war.
This was my question, too. Given how Ukraine made minced-meat of the Russian tanks, why will the Abrams, Leopards and Challengers fare much better? Are they vastly superior in technology and quality? Will they be asked to do different things? Just not clear on how the addition of tanks on the Ukrainian side is going to impact the battlefield.
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Re: Ukraine

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Kurth wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:05 pm
dbt1949 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:43 pm Plus Abrams are made for tank battles. Not sure how useful they will be in this war.
This was my question, too. Given how Ukraine made minced-meat of the Russian tanks, why will the Abrams, Leopards and Challengers fare much better? Are they vastly superior in technology and quality? Will they be asked to do different things? Just not clear on how the addition of tanks on the Ukrainian side is going to impact the battlefield.
We'll, someone's going to have to supply logistics for all those tanks. Why not KBR or someone else's pet pork?

What does it take to keep one M1 operating? Like 75 support personnel, half a dozen tanker trucks and a shitload of fuel and ammo? Going from memory here but it's a lot.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Kurth »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:17 pm
Kurth wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:05 pm
dbt1949 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:43 pm Plus Abrams are made for tank battles. Not sure how useful they will be in this war.
This was my question, too. Given how Ukraine made minced-meat of the Russian tanks, why will the Abrams, Leopards and Challengers fare much better? Are they vastly superior in technology and quality? Will they be asked to do different things? Just not clear on how the addition of tanks on the Ukrainian side is going to impact the battlefield.
We'll, someone's going to have to supply logistics for all those tanks. Why not KBR or someone else's pet pork?

What does it take to keep one M1 operating? Like 75 support personnel, half a dozen tanker trucks and a shitload of fuel and ammo? Going from memory here but it's a lot.
But even if we set aside the logistical issues, why does Ukraine want tanks given what just happened to all those Russian tanks?
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Re: Ukraine

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Kurth wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:05 pm
dbt1949 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:43 pm Plus Abrams are made for tank battles. Not sure how useful they will be in this war.
This was my question, too. Given how Ukraine made minced-meat of the Russian tanks, why will the Abrams, Leopards and Challengers fare much better? Are they vastly superior in technology and quality? Will they be asked to do different things? Just not clear on how the addition of tanks on the Ukrainian side is going to impact the battlefield.
For one, you figure that American tanks with American training and Ukrainian morale is going to get better results than Russian tanks with Russian training and Russian morale.

Beyond that, I assume if the Ukrainians are pushing for them there's a reason. If nothing else, better to have one more tool in your arsenal. Also, and I'm certainly no military expert, but wouldn't tanks be useful for advances into Russian-held territory, if nothing else to help attacking fortified positions and to protect infantry?
Last edited by El Guapo on Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

Kurth wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:05 pm
dbt1949 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:43 pm Plus Abrams are made for tank battles. Not sure how useful they will be in this war.
This was my question, too. Given how Ukraine made minced-meat of the Russian tanks, why will the Abrams, Leopards and Challengers fare much better? Are they vastly superior in technology and quality? Will they be asked to do different things? Just not clear on how the addition of tanks on the Ukrainian side is going to impact the battlefield.
The tanks going there are superior to what the majority of Russian equipment has fielded. Though that is only part of why they are needed. Another need is that the UA army is losing personnel. They've been taking heavy losses warding off barbaric human wave assaults in the Kherson region and Bakhmut. The tanks are intended as a force multiplier. They harden a diminishing body of warriors on the Ukrainian side and give them tactical options.

Edit: One other somewhat important note is that the problem they face is that their tanks are supplied by their enemy. They don't have a ready source of parts at scale. The west is a source of supported war platforms for the UA as well.
Last edited by malchior on Wed Jan 25, 2023 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Kurth »

malchior wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:53 pm
Kurth wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:05 pm
dbt1949 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:43 pm Plus Abrams are made for tank battles. Not sure how useful they will be in this war.
This was my question, too. Given how Ukraine made minced-meat of the Russian tanks, why will the Abrams, Leopards and Challengers fare much better? Are they vastly superior in technology and quality? Will they be asked to do different things? Just not clear on how the addition of tanks on the Ukrainian side is going to impact the battlefield.
The tanks going there are superior to what the majority of Russian equipment has fielded. Though that is only part of why they are needed. Another need is that the UA army is losing personnel. They've been taking heavy losses warding off barbaric human wave assaults in the Kherson region and Bakhmut. The tanks are intended as a force multiplier. They harden a diminishing body of warriors on the Ukrainian side and give them tactical options.
That makes sense, but my understanding was that even the most advanced Russian tanks were getting the shit kicked out of them by relatively cheap shoulder-launched and drone-carried munitions. Maybe I misunderstood, but if that's the case, it still leaves me concerned that these advanced Western tanks are just going to be big targets for the Russians and potential PR and propaganda prizes.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by El Guapo »

Kurth wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:59 pm
malchior wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:53 pm
Kurth wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:05 pm
dbt1949 wrote: Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:43 pm Plus Abrams are made for tank battles. Not sure how useful they will be in this war.
This was my question, too. Given how Ukraine made minced-meat of the Russian tanks, why will the Abrams, Leopards and Challengers fare much better? Are they vastly superior in technology and quality? Will they be asked to do different things? Just not clear on how the addition of tanks on the Ukrainian side is going to impact the battlefield.
The tanks going there are superior to what the majority of Russian equipment has fielded. Though that is only part of why they are needed. Another need is that the UA army is losing personnel. They've been taking heavy losses warding off barbaric human wave assaults in the Kherson region and Bakhmut. The tanks are intended as a force multiplier. They harden a diminishing body of warriors on the Ukrainian side and give them tactical options.
That makes sense, but my understanding was that even the most advanced Russian tanks were getting the shit kicked out of them by relatively cheap shoulder-launched and drone-carried munitions. Maybe I misunderstood, but if that's the case, it still leaves me concerned that these advanced Western tanks are just going to be big targets for the Russians and potential PR and propaganda prizes.
I get the sense that Russian tactics in general have mostly been a mess. I assume (hope) that the Ukrainians aren't going to roll their tanks down in a single file line for the most part.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

Kurth wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:59 pmThat makes sense, but my understanding was that even the most advanced Russian tanks were getting the shit kicked out of them by relatively cheap shoulder-launched and drone-carried munitions. Maybe I misunderstood, but if that's the case, it still leaves me concerned that these advanced Western tanks are just going to be big targets for the Russians and potential PR and propaganda prizes.
The UA has been using Javelins and other western weapons. They have an edge there. The Russians have been reported to be struggling with this. To a point this is actually something they've crowdsourced to the Russian mil-blog space. The Russians were openly kicking around ideas about how they were going to deal with Bradleys. They were heavily into improvisation land. Their main ATGM (the Kornet) is in short supply so they were talking about improvising IEDs, laying them as minefields, and potentially working on modifying RPG-7s. And the Bradley is not as robust as a MBT. That shit isn't going to work against Leopards and Abrams.

Edit: Another thought - FWIW I expect NATO has done a thorough risk assessment on this. Especially to overcome German reticence. We wouldn't be sending them tanks if we believed they were going to be chewed up quickly.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Kraken »

As I understand it, tanks were invented during WW1 to overcome trench warfare, and the situation in Ukraine is coming to resemble WW1 trench warfare. Zelinskyy has said that 200 tanks would allow him to mount an offensive and roll over those Russian lines.

I probably understand it wrong.

BTW, I've also read that tanks were a secret weapon while they were under development. The people working on their turrets and armor were told that they were building water tanks. That's where "tanks" came from. That's probably wrong, too, but I like it.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

Kurth wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:59 pm but my understanding was that even the most advanced Russian tanks were getting the shit kicked out of them
My understanding is that very very few of the T-90s have been seen in Ukraine, I think 2 have been destroyed, one of which was likely a self-destruct. It's believed that Russia has a very limited ability to actually flex that T-90 muscle far or long, and is afraid to expose this fact on the world stage.


There have also been very few of the T-80s as well. The vast majority of destroyed Russian tanks, by far, have been their crappy T-72.

So, these new tanks would mostly be used as the sword tip for attacks back into Russian-occupied territories.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

The Russians are alleged to have attempted to undermine Sweden's entry into NATO. Russia may have orchestrated the burning of the Quran in front of Turkish embassy by hard-right bigots in Sweden.
Russia has masterminded and organized the effort to destabilize Sweden on religious grounds. The operation aims to hamper Sweden’s NATO integration plans, escalate relations with Muslim countries, and create grounds for the acts of terror on the part of Islam followers who arrived in Sweden as refugees.

Therefore the Kremlin also attempts to provoke riots and violence with the subsequent higher risk of international terrorist organizations intensifying their operations in Sweden (a secondary goal).

On January 21, 2023 leader of the Hard Line partly Rasmus Paludan publically burned the Quran outside Türkiye’s embassy in Stockholm. According to the Swedish TV channel SVT, it was a local journalist, Chang Johannes Frick, who proposed that Paludan burn the Quran. He also guaranteed that any damage that the Hard Line leader may sustain in respect to the stunt will be covered.

Russian military intelligence has likely exploited unsuspecting Paludan with the mediation of Chang Johannes Frick, who, according to multiple signs, is a GRU asset recruited for psyops. The location – the area outside Turkey’s embassy in Stockholm – was chosen specifically as the act targeted Ankara. The operation was held ahead of the scheduled visit to Sweden of Turkey’s defense minister. In 2023, the elections will be held in Türkiye, while incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is competing with the Arab world for influence on Muslims worldwide. To Sweden’s move to apply for NATO membership following Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine Türkiye responded with a demand to extradite representatives of Kurdish forces and suspects in the 2016 coup d’état case. At the same time, Stockholm’s accession aspirations became a matter of concern for Moscow. As a result, the Kremlin plotted an operation aiming to escalate contradictions between Türkiye and Sweden amid the upcoming elections in Ankara, realizing that an attack on a religious symbol of Islam can’t be ignored during an ongoing campaign.
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