Ukraine

[Daehawk]

[Unagi]

I feel like these videos are just edited together with random war clips (from this war), and put into a narrative to make a story, and in the end, it feels kinda contrived.

[raydude]

I feel like these videos are just edited together with random war clips (from this war), and put into a narrative to make a story, and in the end, it feels kinda contrived.

Maybe some of them are. But we are in an age where the user has unprecedented ways to correlate different pieces of information to determine whether or not a video or image from this war is true. For example, NASA FIRMS ( Fire Information for Resource Management System) data is publically available. So if Ukraine says Russia's volume of artillery fire is slacking vs. last year we don't have to take their word for it. We can confirm via NASA FIRMS data that yes, the number of hot spots corresponding to Russian artillery bombardment has gone down.

Same thing with videos of destroyed vehicles. One could imagine that multiple videos of a tank blowing up are the same tank from different angles, but geolocation data in the video would confirm if this was true.

Is this time-consuming? Yes. Does this take a lot of manpower? Yes. Are people really doing this? Also yes.

[Max Peck]

You know that Year Two of your Three Day War is going well when you find yourself bartering with North Korea to obtain weapons and munitions.

US: Russia seeks arms-for-food deal with North Korea

The White House on Thursday said it has new evidence that Russia is looking again to North Korea for weapons to fuel the war in Ukraine, this time in a deal that would provide Pyongyang with needed food and other commodities in return.

It’s the latest accusation that Russia, desperate for weaponry and restricted by sanctions and export controls, is turning to “rogue” nations to help it continue to prosecute the 13-month-old war.

“As part of this proposed deal, Russia would receive over two dozen kinds of weapons and munitions from Pyongyang,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. “We also understand that Russia is seeking to send a delegation to North Korea and that Russia is offering North Korea food in exchange for munitions.”

The administration has previously declassified intelligence to present evidence that Iran sold hundreds of attack drones to Russia over the summer and that the Wagner Group, a private Russian military company, has taken delivery of arms from North Korea to help bolster its forces as they fight side-by-side with Russian troops in Ukraine.

Experts believe the food situation in North Korea is the worst it has been under Kim Jong Un’s 11-year rule, but they still say they see no signs of imminent famine or mass deaths. Kim vowed to strengthen state control over agriculture and take a spate of other steps to increase grain production, North Korean state media reported earlier this month.

[Isgrimnur]

[Unagi]

Hell yeah!

[Blackhawk]

Way to achieve your goals, Russia.

[Alefroth]

What a day!

[Daehawk]

[Max Peck]

I am shocked that someone at Twitter decided to down-rank tweets about Ukraine, using the same mechanism that down-ranks things like misinformation and "Coordinated Harmful Activity" (insurrection?). That same someone probably gets to decide what is and is not misinformation. Or harmful.

6. Misinformation is highly down-ranked

Anything that is categorized as misinformation gets the rug pulled out from under it.

Surprisingly, so are posts about Ukraine.

[Jaymann]

Russian casualties in Ukraine are already almost double U.S. casualties in Vietnam: Over 100k vs. 58k.

[Daehawk]

Well now their prisons have vacancies. Unfortunately for protesters against Putin and the war.

[Isgrimnur]

Russian casualties in Ukraine are already almost double U.S. casualties in Vietnam: Over 100k vs. 58k.

US Population in 1970 was ~204M. Near-current Russian population estimates are ~145M

[Alefroth]

Well now their prisons have vacancies. Unfortunately for protesters against Putin and the war.

I don't think a lack of prison space stopped anyone from getting imprisoned.

[Max Peck]

Who knew that the NATO accession process could move so speedily...

Finland joins NATO in major blow to Russia over Ukraine war

Finland joined the NATO military alliance Tuesday, dealing a major blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin with a historic realignment of Europe’s post-Cold War security landscape triggered by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Nordic country’s membership doubles Russia’s border with the world’s biggest security alliance. Finland had adopted neutrality after its defeat by the Soviets in World War II, but its leaders signaled they wanted to join NATO after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine sent a shiver of fear through its neighbors.

“The era of nonalignment in our history has come to an end -– a new era begins,” President Sauli Niinistö said before his country’s blue-and-white flag was raised outside NATO headquarters. A short distance away, outside the security fence, a few dozen people wrapped in flags of their own chanted, “Ukraine needs NATO.”

In praising Finland’s membership, U.S. President Joe Biden noted it came on the 74th anniversary of the signing of NATO’s founding treaty on April 4, 1949.

Neighboring Sweden, which has avoided military alliances for more than 200 years, has also applied. But objections from NATO members Turkey and Hungary have delayed the process.

Niinisto said Finland’s membership “is not complete without that of Sweden. The persistent efforts for a rapid Swedish membership continue.“ Finland even gave its ratification of Sweden’s application to Blinken as it joined.

In Stockholm, Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson congratulated Finland and said he believed it would improve Sweden’s security but added that “it’s no secret that we would like to have concluded it hand-in-hand.”

[Scoop20906]

I'm still just so stunned how NATO expansion was so rapidly increased. Things like that just don't happen but once or twice in a lifetime.

[Kraken]

I'm still just so stunned how NATO expansion was so rapidly increased. Things like that just don't happen but once or twice in a lifetime.

Especially since the former guy worked to weaken NATO. Had he gotten a second term (shudder), the US might have withdrawn from the alliance. I think Putin overestimated the damage that his boy trump accomplished, and Biden's ability to undo it. History will remember mobilizing NATO as one of Biden's most consequential accomplishments.

[Zarathud]

Putin bet the US and UK were weakened enough by Trump and Brexit that he didn’t need Trump in power anymore. He also expected to roll Ukraine and be hailed as its liberator.

But this is the type of attrition and proxy war the US can carry out. Biden deserves praise for assisting Ukraine and expanding NATO. It’s the quiet back room competence where he’s strongest — and had knowledge from doing it in the 1990s.

[El Guapo]

Putin bet the US and UK were weakened enough by Trump and Brexit that he didn’t need Trump in power anymore. He also expected to roll Ukraine and be hailed as its liberator.

But this is the type of attrition and proxy war the US can carry out. Biden deserves praise for assisting Ukraine and expanding NATO. It’s the quiet back room competence where he’s strongest — and had knowledge from doing it in the 1990s.

Yeah, I imagine Putin was expecting a slightly longer and maybe more painful version of Crimea. They immediately won in Crimea, and then there were some sanctions and complaining, but mostly the world just de facto accepted it and moved on. Obviously taking substantially all of Ukraine is bigger and riskier, but he wouldn't be crazy to think that the world would do some sterner version of sanctions, and then he'd just have to wait out the Biden administration and eventually people would move on.

[Grifman]

Putin was worried about Ukraine bringing NATO closer to Russia. Now Russia’s border with NATO has doubled, and NATO forces are on the doorstep of Russia’s second largest city. What a strategic genius he is. One of the main reasons for his war is now moot.

[Max Peck]

‘He’s a war criminal’: Elite Putin security officer defects

On Oct. 14, a Russian engineer named Gleb Karakulov boarded a flight from Kazakhstan to Turkey with his wife and daughter. He switched off his phone to shut out the crescendo of urgent, enraged messages, said goodbye to his life in Russia and tried to calm his fast-beating heart.

But this was no ordinary Russian defector. Karakulov was an officer in President Vladimir Putin’s secretive elite personal security service — one of the few Russians to flee and go public who have rank, as well as knowledge of intimate details of Putin’s life and potentially classified information.

Karakulov, who was responsible for secure communications, said moral opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and his fear of dying there drove him to speak out, despite the risks to himself and his family. He said he hoped to inspire other Russians to speak out also.

“Our president has become a war criminal,” he said. “It is time to end this war and stop being silent.”

Karakulov’s account generally conforms with others that paint the Russian president as a once charismatic but increasingly isolated leader, who doesn’t use a cellphone or the internet and insists on access to Russian state television wherever he goes. He also offered new details about how Putin’s paranoia appears to have deepened since his decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022. Putin now prefers to avoid airplanes and travel on a special armored train, he said, and he ordered a bunker at the Russian Embassy in Kazakhstan outfitted with a secure communications line in October — the first time Karakulov had ever fielded such a request.

Along with information on Putin, Karakulov’s testimony offers an intimate view of one man’s decision to defect — without telling his own mother, who he said remains a strong Putin supporter. It raises critical questions about how deep the Russian public’s acceptance of the war runs, and how Putin’s opponents in the West and beyond might leverage any silent opposition.

While not speaking directly about his case, an official with a security background from a NATO country said a defection like Karakulov’s “has a very great level of interest.” He spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive political matters.

“That would be seen as a very serious blow to the president himself because he is extremely keen on his security, and his security is compromised,” he said. “That’s something that he would be very unhappy about — particularly if the compromise is to do with communications, upon which a great deal relies.”

[Jaymann]

I think we're at the point where if Putin tries to go nuclear he will be met with refuseniks.

[Alefroth]

Thanks what came to my mind also while watching a video about the defector's interview.

[malchior]

NY Times

Classified war documents detailing secret American and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russia were posted this week on social media channels, senior Biden administration officials said.

The Pentagon is investigating who may have been behind the leak of the documents, which appeared on Twitter and on Telegram, a platform with more than half a billion users that is widely available in Russia.

Military analysts said the documents appear to have been modified in certain parts from their original format, overstating American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understating estimates of Russian troops killed.

The modifications could point to an effort of disinformation by Moscow, the analysts said. But the disclosures in the original documents, which appear as photographs of charts of anticipated weapons deliveries, troop and battalion strengths, and other plans, represents a significant breach of American intelligence in the effort to aid Ukraine.

[Isgrimnur]

New Russian propaganda commercial just dropped.

[El Guapo]

Yes, Putin is famously concerned with the well-being of Ukrainians.

[Kraken]

"It was unclear how the documents ended up on social media." My first thought was deliberate misinformation "leak."

[malchior]

Hate to say it but I strongly suspect someone from the GOP. They are pro-Russia and it embarrasses the Biden administration. Nothing would surprise me as we continue to find new lows as a nation daily.

[Max Peck]

The cost of the Ukraine war for one Russian regiment

Kostroma is not a bad place to go looking for the effects of the Ukraine war on Russia. For this city is home to a celebrated regiment that bears its name and has been in the forefront of all the main battles in the Kremlin's campaign against its neighbours.

The 331st Guards Parachute Regiment, often called the Kostroma Airborne Regiment, has been the subject of investigations by BBC's Newsnight since shortly after last February's invasion. These have revealed the price paid by the regiment and its home community. We had confirmed 39 fatalities by April last year, 62 by late July, and now the toll has reached 94.

The actual number of 331st's dead is probably much higher. Some of the soldiers are from towns outside Kostroma, which makes tracking down information about them much more difficult. Several soldiers have been reported missing - some of these may count among the dead.

When one considers those seriously wounded or taken prisoner, it's reasonable to assume that the Ukraine war has cost the regiment several hundred soldiers.

The total size of the 331st regiment could be estimated at 1,500-1,700. When it first sent into Ukraine in February 2022, it deployed two battalion groups, giving a total of 1,000-1,200 soldiers. After taking heavy casualties in the failed attempt to reach Kyiv, the regiment was withdrawn and rebuilt in the southern Russian garrison town of Belgorod last summer.

Subsequent action has seen the regiment moving around all the major flashpoints - Izyum in the early summer, Kherson later on, and now back to Donbas. By monitoring the dates given in the death announcements on Kostroma social media, it's possible to work out when (and often where) the unit was used to spearhead assaults, and the lulls when it was removed from the line to lick its wounds. For example, a cluster of deaths in February point to elements of the 331st being engaged in Kreminna.

Each time casualty replacements - including the conscripts shown on TV in November - are brought in to replace losses, the original cadre of soldiers gets smaller, and the overall size of the unit diminishes. It may now number no more than 300-400 at the front.

[malchior]

More classified documents just popped in covering Ukraine, the Middle East, and China. This is really bad. Combine this with the US slow playing the Trump Mar-a-Lago mess and our national security is taking a harsh beating. We look ridiculous.

[Blackhawk]

Look?

[Daehawk]

Ill stick this in here.

Intel officer for Putin defects. Hear what he revealed about Putin in new interview

The 2:00 mark is when the defector talks about Putin..no internet or mobile phone and such.

[Unagi]

Ill stick this in here.

Intel officer for Putin defects. Hear what he revealed about Putin in new interview

The 2:00 mark is when the defector talks about Putin..no internet or mobile phone and such.

I'm going to assume this is the same story that was shared by Max Peck, just half way up the page here....

‘He’s a war criminal’: Elite Putin security officer defects

[Daehawk]

Ill stick this in here.

Intel officer for Putin defects. Hear what he revealed about Putin in new interview

The 2:00 mark is when the defector talks about Putin..no internet or mobile phone and such.

I'm going to assume this is the same story that was shared by Max Peck, just half way up the page here....

‘He’s a war criminal’: Elite Putin security officer defects

Same guy different news outlet. Guess its the same stuff. Sry.

[malchior]

More documents dropped. They detailed ournpenetration into Russia. People likely were killed due to this leak. This is probably going to be one of the worst leaks ever.

[Unagi]

Will we ever find the source of these leaks? It seems (to me) most likely that there is a Ukrainian -Russian agent- behind it all, but I also have a huge feeling that the heart and soul of the current GOP would also adore these leaks.

[Isgrimnur]

Russian technicians appear to have sabotaged MiG-29 fighter jets headed for Ukraine, Slovakia says

[Smoove_B]

More documents dropped. They detailed ournpenetration into Russia. People likely were killed due to this leak. This is probably going to be one of the worst leaks ever.

Uhh...what?

Images of some of the documents – which include estimates of Russian casualties and a list of Western weapons systems available to Ukraine – were posted to the social media platform Discord in early March, according to screenshots of the posts reviewed by CNN.

“This sh*t was sitting in a Minecraft Discord server for a month and no one noticed,” Aric Toler, a researcher at investigative outlet Bellingcat who traced the timeline of the posted documents, told CNN. Minecraft is a popular video game.

[Unagi]

Russian technicians appear to have sabotaged MiG-29 fighter jets headed for Ukraine, Slovakia says

That would be such a nice thing to belive I simply can't take it in.

[Blackhawk]

Was that sarcasm?