Too soon to start thinking about 2024?

[LordMortis]

Especially in purple states. My intuition is that RFKjr hurts TFG more but my political intuition has been pretty well wrong when it comes to how partying on the right behaves for getting on a decade now. I say right, not independents, because independents considering being pulled from TFG were IINOs. I will say my ear to "I don't support him but I might have to vote for him" has made no mention of RFKjr. Of course, there is little doubt in my mind any more that they support him but they're still embarrassed or in denial about who they really are.

[Holman]

The problem is that third-party candidates appeal to purity voters who don't understand how elections actually work.

"If I vote for the Green Party candidate, surely the election will produce a Greener result!"

[Grifman]

Gaza could cost Biden Michigan - and the election:

[LordMortis]

It is known. It's been a thing here since November, I think. Biden ads are strong here, specifically ads toward young women centered around RvW. I think that's a wise move and should stay a focus but Gaza is going to hurt him, badly. If this were any other time before 2016, I would say "and it should" but I just can't abide the frogs carrying scorpions on their backs or leopards eating faces, even if I can't tell Palestinian and neighboring area descendants, you need to take one for the team.

[Alefroth]

Yeah, it really could be worse. At a minimum it will be the same.

[GreenGoo]

At least Netanyahu will have to bribe drumpf directly before weapons will ship. Bibi knows how to play ball, unlike that commie liberal Zelenskyy.

That said, if you're a single issue voter, you're a single issue voter. Reap what you sow and no complaining afterward.

[Zarathud]

Netanyahu will have to do nothing to get Trump to authorize atrocities during a second term. Jared Kushner chose to recognize Jerusalem as their capital, a major concession, without asking for anything or giving anything to Palestinians. Trump doesn’t change.

[Grifman]

Biden is facing a lot of headwinds:

[Kraken]

He's also losing support among young voters. They aren't flocking to trump so much as they're planning to sit this one out.

However, I take some solace in Heather Cox Richardson's convincing portrayal of trump as a wounded animal who is also hemorrhaging support beyond his MAGA base. It's going to come down to whether the Dems can rally enough of Biden's shrinking base to overcome the fiercely loyal MAGAts.

[Blackhawk]

What, exactly, makes Muslim voters think Trump would do more than Biden?

[waitingtoconnect]

It happened in the UK: people voted for policies against their best interest because the equivalent of the Democrats were “imperfect”.

It happened in Michigan- many muslims I know voted angaisnt Hilary because of how she helped Israel… and look what the trump did for them.

And also the Make Great Britain great again set like trump would use the strategy of everyone’s favourite corporal.

“It makes no difference whatever whether they laugh at us or revile us … whether they represent us as clowns or criminals; the main thing is that they mention us, that they concern themselves with us again and again …”

Trump gets so much coverage then Biden because of this.

[LordMortis]

What, exactly, makes Muslim voters think Trump would do more than Biden?

They don't, AFAICT. What they think is Biden is acting as an enabler and is actively supplying war materials for atrocities in Palestine, so there is no reason to support him. That pleas "to save the children" are falling on deaf ears. That people dying are people they know, people they are related to. This is what you hear at rallies in the area. If I were interested in preserving such things, I could post letters from Tlaib. She is my Congress Person and she is quite active in messaging her electorate. However, I don't, so... Beyond that interview instances tend to push a story from the interviewer. I don't push much stock in them. Rallies tend to push the groupthink of a community of people. I put much more stock in them.

[Grifman]

I don’t usually find anything Trump says as funny, but the one got me:



I can’t believe that people like Barr, Cruz, and Rubio have so little pride that they continue to be Trump’s doormats and ass lickers.

[Unagi]

It's seriously fucking weird.

These are real adults with real careers and they hitch themselves to this creature.

[El Guapo]

It's seriously fucking weird.

These are real adults with real careers and they hitch themselves to this creature.

This is the perfect encapsulation of this.

[GreenGoo]

Netanyahu will have to do nothing to get Trump to authorize atrocities during a second term.

It's continued US aid I was referring to here. If Bibi wants more guns, he needs to grease the wheels a bit, if you know what I mean? *exaggerated wise guy wink*

My reference to Zelenskyy was a context clue, seeing as Drumpf has already solicited bribes for aid with Ukraine. Extortion. Whatever.

[Blackhawk]

What, exactly, makes Muslim voters think Trump would do more than Biden?

They don't, AFAICT. What they think is Biden is acting as an enabler and is actively supplying war materials for atrocities in Palestine, so there is no reason to support him. That pleas "to save the children" are falling on deaf ears. That people dying are people they know, people they are related to. This is what you hear at rallies in the area. If I were interested in preserving such things, I could post letters from Tlaib. She is my Congress Person and she is quite active in messaging her electorate. However, I don't, so... Beyond that interview instances tend to push a story from the interviewer. I don't push much stock in them. Rallies tend to push the groupthink of a community of people. I put much more stock in them.

That I knew. What baffles me is why any of them think Trump would do more for them. He's unpredictable, easily manipulated, and nobody has any idea what he'd do about Gaza, as he's constantly waffled on that particular question, alternating between shouting his support and insulting Netanyahu. The closest I think he's come to a position is to criticize their 'PR' for not doing a better job of keeping it all under wraps. He's likely got less leverage than Biden, and he's as likely to increase support as he is to pull it. It all depends on which path he thinks makes him look better.

[Victoria Raverna]

They don't think Trump is better. For them Biden is so bad that Trump can't do much worse. And they think they need to make sure that Biden is punished for his part in the killing of Palestinian children. They just don't care anymore if Trump is worse since they think that it can't be much worse than Biden's action or inaction.

[LordMortis]

Saw some huge Kennedy for Independence flags that were more like king size sheets (though professionally fabricated) draped across a privacy fence line today. Given that I live in a area with lots of generational ties to the middle east on all sides, I wonder if it's related. I'm connecting dots that I don't actually see, though. I was surprised. It was a huge advertisement and now I'm curious who would advertise the loudly for him, let alone plan to vote for him.

[waitingtoconnect]

He's also losing support among young voters. They aren't flocking to trump so much as they're planning to sit this one out.

However, I take some solace in Heather Cox Richardson's convincing portrayal of trump as a wounded animal who is also hemorrhaging support beyond his MAGA base. It's going to come down to whether the Dems can rally enough of Biden's shrinking base to overcome the fiercely loyal MAGAts.

My nieces and nephews are planning to vote trump because they don’t like what Biden is doing in Gaza… because trump said he would fix it

My own kids are sick of politics and won’t vote for either because of Gaza.

Which is why I said after October 7 Biden was toast.

And after what I saw in the Supreme Court today well even if somehow Biden wins the electoral college I can see a contingent election coming in the house.

As for hispanics - if they don’t see that trump wants to restart the Mexican expulsions of the early to mid 20th century where 3 million hispanics were deported even if they were American… well good luck to them.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_Repatriation and Operation Wetback…

Right now it’s all looking increasingly like this

[Pyperkub]

They don't think Trump is better. For them Biden is so bad that Trump can't do much worse. And they think they need to make sure that Biden is punished for his part in the killing of Palestinian children. They just don't care anymore if Trump is worse since they think that it can't be much worse than Biden's action or inaction.

Yeah, this is what I believe they think tho Trump would be absolutely horrific for Gaza. I don't think he even thinks Palestinians are people, and more just a shithole group( per his africa comments) . No power, no money, they do nothing for him, and thus mean nothing to him. He has already said for Isreal to just get it over with (which at this point is to just murder whoever they want to).