Israel–United States relations and associated politics

[LordMortis]

One big question is whether Iran actually has the means. I hope not.

Wow. I thought Iran was among the largest militarizes in the world. I thought wrong. In terms of spending they are less than half of Israel. And they don't have the backing that Israel does.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... penditures

[Anonymous Bosch]

IDF says Iran has launched missiles towards Israel

published at 17:35 British Summer Time
17:35 BST
Breaking

A short while ago, missiles were launched from Iran towards Israel, the Israeli military says in a statement.

It adds that sirens have sounded all across Israel.


The IDF shared a graphic showing the locations of the air raid alerts issued across Israel in the past few minutes

[Isgrimnur]

So... all of them?

[Anonymous Bosch]

Insane Footage Showing Dozens of Iranian Ballistic Missiles raining over Israel



Multiple Ballistic Missile Impacts reported to the North of Tel Aviv

[Anonymous Bosch]

Eight killed in terror shooting in Jaffa, many more wounded

The shooting, which the MDA designated a mass-casualty incident, occurred near a light rail station in the central Israeli city.

Eight people were killed and at least nine wounded, as well as a dog, in a shooting terror attack in Jaffa, in central Israel, on Tuesday evening, Magen David Adom reported.

At least four people were reported critically wounded. Magen David Adom announced that the incident involved multiple causalities.

The shooting occurred near a light rail station in the central Israeli city. Two terrorists who were observed exiting the train were shot dead by security forces.

Police suspect at least one more terrorist is still present in the area

[Blackhawk]

Only Trump can control Iran in 5... 4...

[Smoove_B]

Between dock workers strike and Iran attack, October surprise is off to a hell of a start.

[Isgrimnur]

Reuters

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Iran had launched tens of missiles at Israel, and that if Israel retaliated Tehran's response would be "more crushing and ruinous".
...
Reuters journalists saw missiles intercepted in the airspace of neighbouring Jordan. Israeli army radio said nearly 200 missiles had been launched into Israel from Iran.

Anything that will hit nothing isn't going to be intercepted.

[Max Peck]

Between dock workers strike and Iran attack, October surprise is off to a hell of a start.

And then there's Helene.

[Anonymous Bosch]

Israel Signals It Will Retaliate

Israel's military signaled it would retaliate over Iran's missile barrage on the country, saying it is on high alert offensively as well as defensively. "This attack will have consequences," spokesman Daniel Hagari said. "We have plans, and we will operate at the place and time we decide."

[Grifman]

[Lassr]

This may open up the justification to go after Iranian Nuclear development...

[LordMortis]

This may open up the justification to go after Iranian Nuclear development...

I was just thinking about reaction to Iranian nukes. I can only imagine how ugly this gets. I also only imagine how much sympathy Israel just got. For good and for ill.

[Grifman]

Apparently only ballistic missiles were used to shorten response times. I have seen reports of between 200 and 500 missile launched by Iran.

[hepcat]

I have to wonder if this was a "half hearted" attempt at retaliation by Iran with missile strikes they knew would likely be struck down during flight. I believe they did something similar not that long ago in response to Israeli military action against its interests. At that time, they issued the same "welp, we're all done responding now!" message after a barrage of missiles that incurred no casualties.

But Israel isn't fucking around. They can, and will, obliterate Iran if they get the chance. I think Iran knows this to be true. They need to tread lightly while still keeping the respect of the Arab world.

[Anonymous Bosch]

The Israel Defense Force states that the Air Force will carry out “Powerful Airstrikes” tonight, throughout the Middle East.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a Coalition of Iranian-Backed Paramilitary Groups in both Iraq and Syria, has now stated that they will launch Attacks on U.S. Bases in Iraq and across the Region, if the United States participates in an Israeli Attack against Iran.

[hepcat]

Has there been even a hint that the U.S. would actively participate in any military action by Israel?

[Anonymous Bosch]

Has there been even a hint that the U.S. would actively participate in any military action by Israel?

The U.S. Navy actively intercepted several missiles fired by Iran against Israel and, if nothing else, U.S. intelligence could play a significant role in retaliatory IDF airstrikes.

Several Ballistic Missiles fired by Iran against Israel were Intercepted by a Group of U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyers operating in the Eastern Mediterranean, including the USS Arleigh Burke (DDG-51), USS Cole (DDG-67), and USS Bulkeley (DDG-84)

[El Guapo]

IDF says Iran has launched missiles towards Israel

published at 17:35 British Summer Time
17:35 BST
Breaking

A short while ago, missiles were launched from Iran towards Israel, the Israeli military says in a statement.

It adds that sirens have sounded all across Israel.


The IDF shared a graphic showing the locations of the air raid alerts issued across Israel in the past few minutes

To be clear, this map shows where alarm sirens sounded, not where missiles actually hit (or even targeted areas). Maybe that's clear, but I've seen some posts that have interpreted this map as "missiles landed everywhere".

[El Guapo]

Iran's President

Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, had been among those urging restraint, but on Tuesday he said the missile strike was a legitimate act of self-defense. He warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel that “Iran is not seeking war but it will stand firmly against any threats.”

He added: “This is only a small glimpse of our powers. Do not enter into a war with Iran.”

ok Anakin.

[Blackhawk]

It's all the sand.

[YellowKing]

Netanyahu's recent speech in which he said Iranian regime change would happen "a lot sooner than people think" is sounding like quite the foreshadowing now. I get the feeling Israel has run out of fucks to give.

[waitingtoconnect]

I'm pro-Israeli but I don't like Bibi, I think he has acted in ways that have damaged his country's reputation and standing for in the long run not much gain. I think timing wise BIbi is doing it for Trump.

Bibi knows Turmp being elected will get him more chance to push the Palestinians out of Gaza for a new Trump golf course as per Kushner's comments. They can tie the "illegal immigrant" issue here to the Gazan refugees. Bibi knows the longer the war goes on the more chance he can stay in power as PM and thus out of court where he faces serious criminal charges.

If Harris/Biden do nothing to stop Israel the Arab Americans in the mid-west and the young are more likely to stay home or paradoxically vote for Trump. If they do something they'll turn away RINOs and independent voters.

There doesn't appear to be any real reason this had to be done now and why it could not have waited until later.

[Kurth]

I think it’s entirely possible that Israel strikes Tehran with n the next 24 hours.

If Iran launches a significant attack against Israel shortly, as is now being predicted by U.S. and Israeli intelligence, I think Israel hits back hard.

I'm upgrading this from "entirely possible" to "quite likely" at this point. From what I've read, Iran's attack was, again, pretty ineffectual, but that's more because of the IDF's superior air defenses and less because it was a half-measure from Iran. This was a serious attack with hundreds of ballistic missiles.

There is zero chance Iran gets to say "there, we're done now" and Israel accepts that without significant retaliation.

[Kurth]

There wasn't any real reason this had to be done now and why it could not have waited until later.

Tell that to the tens of thousands of Israeli's that have been evacuated from the north of the country for what's going on close to a year since Hezbollah began lobbing missiles over the border in solidarity with Hamas.

[waitingtoconnect]

I think it’s entirely possible that Israel strikes Tehran with n the next 24 hours.

If Iran launches a significant attack against Israel shortly, as is now being predicted by U.S. and Israeli intelligence, I think Israel hits back hard.

I'm upgrading this from "entirely possible" to "quite likely" at this point. From what I've read, Iran's attack was, again, pretty ineffectual, but that's more because of the IDF's superior air defenses and less because it was a half-measure from Iran. This was a serious attack with hundreds of ballistic missiles.

There is zero chance Iran gets to say "there, we're done now" and Israel accepts that without significant retaliation.

Most likely in my view it would be targeted assassinations of Iranian leadership. The Iranian regime is extremely fragile right now; and very unpopular; and levelling large parts of Tehran would only galvanise support for the dictators.

If they take out the Supreme Leader and a few of his underlings the regime might collapse on its own if the people rise up. That could hopefully set the tone for a democratic Iran as people are tired of the extreme restrictions.

There wasn't any real reason this had to be done now and why it could not have waited until later.

Tell that to the tens of thousands of Israeli's that have been evacuated from the north of the country for what's going on close to a year since Hezbollah began lobbing missiles over the border in solidarity with Hamas.

I appreciate in full Israel's need to defend iteself, but by all accounts they did not tell the Biden administration what they were going to do. Thats not behaviour one expects from an ally who depends on you for support.

[El Guapo]

I think it’s entirely possible that Israel strikes Tehran with n the next 24 hours.

If Iran launches a significant attack against Israel shortly, as is now being predicted by U.S. and Israeli intelligence, I think Israel hits back hard.

I'm upgrading this from "entirely possible" to "quite likely" at this point. From what I've read, Iran's attack was, again, pretty ineffectual, but that's more because of the IDF's superior air defenses and less because it was a half-measure from Iran. This was a serious attack with hundreds of ballistic missiles.

There is zero chance Iran gets to say "there, we're done now" and Israel accepts that without significant retaliation.

Most likely in my view it would be targeted assassinations of Iranian leadership. The Iranian regime is extremely fragile right now; and very unpopular; and levelling large parts of Tehran would only galvanise support for the dictators.

If they take out the Supreme Leader and a few of his underlings the regime might collapse on its own if the people rise up. That could hopefully set the tone for a democratic Iran as people are tired of the extreme restrictions.

There wasn't any real reason this had to be done now and why it could not have waited until later.

Tell that to the tens of thousands of Israeli's that have been evacuated from the north of the country for what's going on close to a year since Hezbollah began lobbing missiles over the border in solidarity with Hamas.

I appreciate in full Israel's need to defend iteself, but by all accounts they did not tell the Biden administration what they were going to do. Thats not behaviour one expects from an ally who depends on you for support.

Do you think that it would be a good idea for Israel to assassinate the Supreme Leader of Iran?

[waitingtoconnect]

I hope they don't.

But they've shown consistently they will and they can do it. But after today they doubtless will feel they need to give an answer, and I hope it's one that doesn't kill many innocent people.

Most Middle Eastern nations are highly Balkanised which is why civil war is only a hairs breath away, and Iran is no different. As we saw in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria all sorts of warlords and dark forces spring up when you do such a thing.

[Kurth]

I hope they don't.

But they've shown consistently they will and they can do it. But after today they doubtless will feel they need to give an answer, and I hope it's one that doesn't kill many innocent people.

Most Middle Eastern nations are highly Balkanised which is why civil war is only a hairs breath away, and Iran is no different. As we saw in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria all sorts of warlords and dark forces spring up when you do such a thing.

I think the point is, there’s a huge difference between taking out terrorist leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah and taking out heads of state like the supreme leader of Iran.

Apples. Oranges. Or, more like apples, soccer balls.

[LordMortis]

I hope it's one that doesn't kill many innocent people.

So much this. I'm dubious though.

[LawBeefaroni]

I think it’s entirely possible that Israel strikes Tehran with n the next 24 hours.

If Iran launches a significant attack against Israel shortly, as is now being predicted by U.S. and Israeli intelligence, I think Israel hits back hard.

I'm upgrading this from "entirely possible" to "quite likely" at this point. From what I've read, Iran's attack was, again, pretty ineffectual, but that's more because of the IDF's superior air defenses and less because it was a half-measure from Iran. This was a serious attack with hundreds of ballistic missiles.

Everything I've seen indicates that this was still largely a probing attack that wasn't designed to overwhelm the missile defenses. Yes, it was serious but Iran can't have thought it would do much more damage than it did.

[msduncan]

I think it’s entirely possible that Israel strikes Tehran with n the next 24 hours.

If Iran launches a significant attack against Israel shortly, as is now being predicted by U.S. and Israeli intelligence, I think Israel hits back hard.

I'm upgrading this from "entirely possible" to "quite likely" at this point. From what I've read, Iran's attack was, again, pretty ineffectual, but that's more because of the IDF's superior air defenses and less because it was a half-measure from Iran. This was a serious attack with hundreds of ballistic missiles.

Everything I've seen indicates that this was still largely a probing attack that wasn't designed to overwhelm the missile defenses. Yes, it was serious but Iran can't have thought it would do much more damage than it did.

I read an article suggesting that Iran is estimated to have 3000 ballistic missiles. The article said they likely didn't want to exhaust a large part of that supply in case of all out war - so they struck with small amount.

[hepcat]

Sheesh, 3000? That's almost laughable in this day and age.

[El Guapo]

I don't totally get the value to Iran of this response, if it had roughly its expected effect. Feels like enough to lead Israel to respond in some way that will be painful to Iran, but not enough to cause Israel any substantial harm. Some missiles did get through, so maybe the idea is to say essentially "we can get missiles through, so it's going to really hurt if we unleash our full arsenal" or something?

[LawBeefaroni]

I don't totally get the value to Iran of this response, if it had roughly its expected effect. Feels like enough to lead Israel to respond in some way that will be painful to Iran, but not enough to cause Israel any substantial harm. Some missiles did get through, so maybe the idea is to say essentially "we can get missiles through, so it's going to really hurt if we unleash our full arsenal" or something?

It's another data point on the capacity and weaknesses of Israel's missile defenses. It also appeases the hardliners who were calling for Iran to strike.

[Max Peck]

Iran's President

Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, had been among those urging restraint, but on Tuesday he said the missile strike was a legitimate act of self-defense. He warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel that “Iran is not seeking war but it will stand firmly against any threats.”

He added: “This is only a small glimpse of our powers. Do not enter into a war with Iran.”

ok Anakin.

From what I've read, Pezeshkian is the most moderate politician ever to be elected to the presidency (although "moderate" is obviously relative -- it isn't like a true liberal would even be allowed to run for the office). At this point, though, I'd guess Khamenei has him on a very short leash.

[El Guapo]

Iran's President

Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian, had been among those urging restraint, but on Tuesday he said the missile strike was a legitimate act of self-defense. He warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel that “Iran is not seeking war but it will stand firmly against any threats.”

He added: “This is only a small glimpse of our powers. Do not enter into a war with Iran.”

ok Anakin.

From what I've read, Pezeshkian is the most moderate politician ever to be elected to the presidency (although "moderate" is obviously relative -- it isn't like a true liberal would even be allowed to run for the office). At this point, though, I'd guess Khamenei has him on a very short leash.

Oh, I know. I just found his phrasing amusing.

[Max Peck]

It probably sounds better in the original Klingon Persian.

[Kraken]

Sheesh, 3000? That's almost laughable in this day and age.

Maybe this will put a dent in their shipments to Russia.