Syria - civil war incoming?

[Daehawk]

We'll just have to go back to all these places once the enemy is back and entrenched. Our troops will die yet again over a job half finished.

[Holman]

We'll just have to go back to all these places once the enemy is back and entrenched. Our troops will die yet again over a job half finished.

Nope. The Russians will have them by then.

Trump is Putin's foreign policy. Also Erdogan's, as the Kurdish fighters will all be dead soon.

[Daehawk]

I find it really shitty how we are doing the Kurds. They have been our allies in that area for a good while now and a strong loyal one at that. Just embarrassing.

[malchior]

[Defiant]

Looks like the withdrawal will be slowed down.

[malchior]

Like the border security issue this is a big maybe. Trump very likely will double down. After all, Mattis is gone today. The news is reporting he already signed the withdrawal order. So it is a big maybe that they'll show it down. Maybe they won't. That is the problem with this President. You never know. That is why you have Putin eyeing Belarus openly at the moment. Why Iran is upping its support of Hezbollah, etc.

[GreenGoo]

Erdogan seems displeased with Bolton for some reason.

Perhaps another chat with Bolton's boss will get things back on track.

[Victoria Raverna]

As much as I loathe Trump and automatically assume that everything he does is wrong, I'm going to be contrarian here and say that I'm glad those troops are coming home.

The troops should never have been there in the first place. Obama was right to stay out of it as much as he did. He never should have changed his policy. It's beyond hilarious to hear Obama criticized for not sending troops into Syria soon enough while Drumpf is celebrated for bring them home too soon. Chances are high he's doing it at the behest of Putin, especially when he fails to include the people responsible for it in his decision, or even consult them.

Humanitarian aid was the right approach. America has got to get better at picking and choosing when to get involved. You guys were still reeling from the Afghanistan and Iraqi wars, not to mention buried in debt paying for it. Assad was a monster and doing monstrous things to his own people. America can't save the world from itself though, every time a country breaks into civil war. There's not even a good realpolitik reason for being there. But once your committed, you should follow through.

I too am glad your troops are coming home. Not because I'm critical of the decisions Obama and Drumpf have made, I'm glad because Americans don't have to die for no purpose. Even one American dying in Syria is too many.

Americans were not involved in the Syrian civil war, they were there to destroy ISIS so that it is no longer a major threat. In this they have largely been successful - though there is still work to be done. Leaving ISIS with a major safe haven from which they could plan and launch terrorist attacks would have been a huge mistake. Remember we got here because ISIS took most of northern Iraq, including Mosul, one of the largest cities. That could not stand.

Obama was probably correct in staying out of the Syrian Civil War, but the campaign against ISIS was something entirely different and probably necessary.

I thought Americans were there to help the rebels against Syrian government? Which makes them on the same side as ISIS which also fighting the government.

[GreenGoo]

At the beginning America provided aid to the rebels against the Syrian government. I don't believe troops arrived until later, in an advisory/training role.

Who the troops were helping Vs who I don't recall.

Your observation that the rebels and Isis were a blurred line with a major overlap in the Venn diagram is correct, however. Certainly at the beginning and as the war developed.

I stopped following the war at some point so I don't know how things have changed. Grifman suggests Americans are on the ground to defeat isis. So they aren't there to support the rebels or Syrian government? Maybe to support the rebels from being usurped by isis, which was definitely happening at one point.

[malchior]

Looks like we're just leaving starting today. How fast remains to be seen.

I wonder if Graham is being betrayed *again* by Trump the day after he made his shameful 'declare a national emergency' statement. What a circus.

[Remus West]

Seriously, why do other people ally with us and will they ever again?

[Holman]

Seriously, why do other people ally with us and will they ever again?

We have cool new allies now!

[Defiant]

Israel carried out a series of airstrikes early Monday against Iranian targets in Syria, the Israeli military said, in response to an Iranian missile fired at the Golan Heights, capping off a volatile 24 hours between the two regional enemies with the possibility of more fighting ahead.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/21/middleea ... index.html

[Isgrimnur]

WaPo

Syrians who remained loyal to President Bashar al-Assad throughout the past eight years of war are increasingly expressing discontent with his government as living standards in the country continue to deteriorate even as the conflict winds down.
...
But for the first time, those living in the pro-government areas that were spared the worst of the violence are experiencing some of the harshest deprivations, including in the capital, Damascus.

Residents there say life has become more difficult in recent months than at any point in the past eight years, bringing a realization that there will be no swift recovery from the immense damage inflicted by the war on Syria’s economy, social fabric and standing in the international community.
...
The conquest of the Eastern Ghouta suburb last year ended the rocket fire, but it has not brought the respite residents were hoping for, said a Damascus-based writer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he fears for his safety. “This is the worst we have ever known,” he said. “People can barely survive, and the percentage of poor is increasing all the time.”
...
Acute shortages of fuel, cooking gas and electricity have left citizens shivering in darkness through an unusually cold winter. The Syrian currency, which had plunged and then stabilized after the war broke out, is sliding again, sending prices soaring.

Many thousands of men who fought on the front lines for years are returning home without hope of finding jobs. The wartime economy has fueled corruption on an unprecedented scale, compounding the daily challenge of lining up for long hours to secure basic necessities with the indignity of having to pay multiple bribes to layers of officialdom, according to Damascus residents.

Widespread expectations, encouraged by the government — that wealthy Arab investors would flock back to Damascus, Chinese funding for reconstruction projects would flow and U.S. sanctions would be relaxed — have been disappointed and don’t seem likely to be fulfilled anytime soon.

The cafes and bars of Damascus are packed at night, creating the impression of a city on the path to recovery. But the revelers represent a tiny elite that has profited from the war, and their conspicuous consumption only fuels the resentment of the vast majority of people for whom life is a daily struggle to survive, the residents say.

[Max Peck]

33 Turkish troops killed in air strike in Idlib

At least 33 Turkish soldiers have been killed in an air strike by Syrian "regime forces" in north-western Syria, a senior Turkish official has said.

More were hurt in Idlib province, said Rahmi Dogan, the governor of Turkey's Hatay province. Other reports put the death toll higher.

Turkey is now retaliating against Syrian troops government targets.

Syrian forces supported by Russia are trying to retake Idlib from rebels who are backed by Turkish soldiers.

And here I thought that Erdogan and Putin had an understanding.

[Kraken]

Maybe Assad understands it differently.

It's sad that in a brouhaha between Turkey and Syria, I want them both to lose.

[Isgrimnur]

Couldn’t happen to two nicer dictators.

[Max Peck]

Arab League: Syria reinstated as Assad rehabilitation continues

Syria is back in the influential Arab League, more than a decade after being thrown out for its brutal repression of pro-democracy protests, which led to the ongoing civil war.

The move is further evidence of a thaw in relations between Damascus and other Arab governments.

Syria's readmittance comes ahead of a summit in Saudi Arabia later this month that President Bashar al-Assad may now attend.

The US and UK have criticised the move.

[Max Peck]

US airstrikes target more Iran-backed bases in Syria

The US has conducted "precision" air strikes in Syria on facilities used by the Iranian revolutionary guard, the Pentagon has said.

Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin said the strikes were in response to "continued attacks" on US bases in Iraq and Syria by Iran-backed fighters.

At least eight pro-Iran fighters were killed, a UK-based war monitor said.

It is the third time since 26 October that the US has carried out such air strikes.

I didn't realize (or had forgotten) that there currently are US bases in Syria for the IRGC/proxies to attack.

[Isgrimnur]

US forces in Syria attacked four times in less than 24 hours - U.S. military official

U.S. forces came under attack three times on Sunday evening, including near the Al Omar Oil field and at a U.S. base at al-Shaddadi, the official told Reuters.

Multiple drones were fired at U.S. forces at the Rumalyn Landing Zone on Monday morning, the official said. One drone was shot down but another damaged four tents, the official added.
...
The U.S. blames the attacks on groups backed by Iran - an assertion dismissed by Tehran which says the groups are acting on their own accord.

The United States has 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 more in neighbouring Iraq, whom it says are on a mission to advise and assist local forces trying to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State, which in 2014 seized large swathes of both countries but was later pushed back.

[The Meal]

Good thing our services aren’t missing any top brass. /s

[Grifman]

I don’t know what changed exactly to eliminate the stalemate, but three days ago several groups of Syrian rebels launched an offensive and have routed the Syrian Army and have taken Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria, even despite heavy Russian air attacks.

I can’t find anyone who can explain what exactly happened.

[Holman]

I don’t know what changed exactly to eliminate the stalemate, but three days ago several groups of Syrian rebels launched an offensive and have routed the Syrian Army and have taken Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria, even despite heavy Russian air attacks.

I can’t find anyone who can explain what exactly happened.

The rebels know that it's better to act now before DNI Tulsi Gabbard starts feeding US intelligence to her boyfriend Assad.

[Alefroth]

Perhaps also the weakening of Hezbollah.

[Max Peck]

The limited reporting I'm seeing indicates that the rebels have penetrated Aleppo, but not that they control it outright yet. It sounds like there have been indications for some time that an offensive of some sort was imminent, but apparently nobody expected the apparent collapse of Syrian government forces.

In a shock offensive, insurgents breach Syria’s largest city for the first time since 2016

The offensive came as Iran-linked groups, primarily Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which has backed Syrian government forces since 2015, have been preoccupied with their own battles at home.

A ceasefire in Hezbollah’s two-month war with Israel took effect Wednesday, the day the Syrian opposition factions announced their offensive. Israel has also escalated its attacks against Hezbollah and Iran-linked targets in Syria during the last 70 days.

Dareen Khalifa, a senior adviser with the International Crisis Group and an expert on Syrian groups, said the insurgents have signaled for a while that they were ready for an offensive. But no one expected the swift advance of the forces toward Aleppo.

“It’s not only that the Russians are distracted and bogged down in Ukraine, but also the Iranians are distracted and bogged down elsewhere. Hezbollah’s distracted and bogged down elsewhere, and the regime is absolutely cornered,” she said. “But the surprise element comes in with how quickly the regime crumbled.”

The attack on Aleppo followed weeks of simmering low-level violence, including government attacks on opposition-held areas. Turkey, which has backed Syrian opposition groups, failed in its diplomatic efforts to prevent the government attacks, which were seen as a violation of a 2019 agreement sponsored by Russia, Turkey and Iran to freeze the line of the conflict.

Turkish security officials said Thursday that Syrian opposition groups initially launched a long-planned “limited” offensive toward Aleppo, where attacks targeting civilians originated. However, the offensive expanded as Syrian government forces began retreating from their positions, the officials said.

The aim of the offensive was to reestablish the boundaries of the de-escalation zone, according to Turkish officials.

I'd guess that it is no coincidence that the offensive kicked off the same day that the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire went into effect, to give it the best chance to achieve it's goals before Hezbollah et al could regroup and intervene to support the Syrian government forces.

[Holman]

I'd be happy to learn that they're getting US intelligence and even special forces support before Trump sells them out to Putin in a two-fer with Ukraine.

[Max Peck]

These particular rebels are backed by Turkey rather than the US, so I'd expect that limits Trump's ability to screw them over.

[Grifman]

Assad in Moscow?



The sad part is that even if the regime is defeated, there will just be another round(s) of war as the disparate rebel groups fight over the corpse of what remains of Syria.

[Grifman]

There are multiple reports of the Russians evacuating one of their airbases. In addition, there are further reports of more towns and villages being captured by the rebels. The regime is facing collapse in northern Syria.

[LawBeefaroni]

Assad in Moscow?

I certainly hope Assad's exile ends soon.


In defenistration.

The sad part is that even if the regime is defeated, there will just be another round(s) of war as the disparate rebel groups fight over the corpse of what remains of Syria.

Depends on the backing.

[Grifman]

Events are happening rapidly. In the last 10 hours the rebels have reportedly entered Hama, the 4th largest city in Syria:



The question I have is how big the snowball effect will be. So far this reminds me of the collapse of South Vietnam (yes, I am that old). Unable to hold the central Highlands, the South Vietnamese withdrew to try and hold more core areas, but in the process, the withdrawal became a rout from which the govt never recovered, leading to its collapse. Are we seeing a repeat here?

[Grifman]

Part of the problem for the regime is that the most capable elements of its military no longer exist. The Iranian IRG generals directing the Syrian army were killed in Israeli airstrikes, and Hezbollah pulled most of its troops out to fight in Lebanon and be also be killed there by Israel. Throw in the Russians being focused on Ukraine and not a lot more help is coming to the rescue.

[Grifman]

And now there are several reports like this:

[Grifman]

[Grifman]

Merry Christmas!

[Max Peck]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/statu ... NcXCfN8s1g

Why are they using a photo of Yevgeny Prigozhin? Is it some sort of joke that's flying far over my head?

[Holman]

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/statu ... NcXCfN8s1g

Why are they using a photo of Yevgeny Prigozhin? Is it some sort of joke that's flying far over my head?

Russian generals removed from command sometimes don't live long.

Although Prigozhin seems to have threatened a coup, of course.

[Kraken]

Merry Christmas!

I was just wondering if the rebel baddies are less bad than the government baddies (in the minds of the Syrian people). I suspect they're each bad to different groups, so it would depend on whom you ask.

It's nice to see Assad get his dick knocked in the dirt but I'll be surprised if it forebodes a better era for Syria.

[Grifman]

Updates for today:

[Max Peck]

Updates for today:

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/ ... NcXCfN8s1g

For those, like me, who don't have Xitter accounts and therefore can't read much of anything on that platform, this particular source is also active on Mastodon:

https://mstdn.social/@noelreports

Also, for those who need a who's-who guide, a poster over on QT3 has your back:

On the side of the Government of Syria:

• Syrian Arab Army (the nation’s official military, often abbreviated as SAA, SA, SAAF, etc.)
• Syrian National Defense Forces (largely but not entirely Alawite militias, often abbreviated as Syrian NDF or SNDF)
• Shabiha (longer-standing collection of Alawite paramilitary types who were used against protesters, primarily turned into the NDF)
• Hezbollah (Iranian Shia group based in Lebanon)
• Iran (the official government has provided support and has a modest number of troops over there)
• Russia (primary arms supplier, has provided some direct military support to suppress uprisings and is promising more)
• Various Shia militias from abroad (mostly from Afghanistan and Pakistan)

On the side of the rebels:

• Syrian National Council (based out of Turkey, abbreviated as SNC, and includes a collection of Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and other members)
• Syrian National Coalition (a weak but BROADER group that includes the Council as well as a much more eclectic/inclusive membership, including Kurds, Assyrians, etc., often abbreviated as NC … note the lack of an S)
• Syrian Interim Government (abbreviated as SIG, this is the official unofficial government put together by the NC which many foreign powers like to deal with)
• Free Syrian Army (abbreviated as FSA, this is comprised for former Syrian military who joined in the rebellion and are based out of Turkey and supported by them, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the US. However, they have MANY individual factions with their own motivations)
• Syrian National Army (abbreviated as SNA, this is the force under the flag of the SIG and has grown a bit while the FSA has shrunk)
• Al-Qaeda/al-Nusra Front & Friends (yep, those “friendly folk” - some Syrian but more foreign fighters, often at odds with the other rebels. HTS formally split with al-Qaeda, and al-Qaeda’s current branch is Hurras al-Din, which has been beaten down by HTS, among others)

Fighting Their Own Fight… Sort of:

• Syrian Democratic Forces (abbreviated as SDF, a largely Kurdish-but-truly-an-umbrella group that primarily sticks to the north and east, their goal is to secure true autonomy in the Rojava region; they’d be listed as against the government but they’re so often at odds with the rebels it’s hard to include them in that same list. Its largest—but not only—military branch/faction is The People’s Defense Units, a Kurdish group abbreviated as YPG. The SDF is also comprised of MANY other ethnic militias which are not Kurdish, including Sunni Arabs, Christians, etc… )
• Kurdistan Workers Party (abbreviated as the PKK, which is a terrorist group based in Turkey and Iraq and has connections with the SDF)
• Daesh (IS/ISIS/ISIL, formerly under the al-Qaeda banner, now largely without holdings but still stirring up trouble wherever and whenever they can)
• Local mom & pop stores (abbreviated as WTFBBQ, factions quickly rise and fall on all sides of the conflict(s) with frequently very colorful names)