Octopus Overlords

Let's play hypotheticals......

IF you were alpha parasite who would YOU select and for what roles? (Scoop as Mr. splodie has a nice ring to it)

Secondarily - it doesn't matter when Mr. 'splodie decides to go off, its important simply that he does so near the beginning.

Thirdly - After a successful protection, why wouldn't mr. splodie claim it so that he can draw out the protector?
-huge gains - expose the protector, when seer comes out knocks them out ASAP

I guess I also find the case more believable that El guapo would choose to self protect V. Scoop protecting El Guapo

let me say again....this IS Scoop....

I think the funniest outcome is if Scoop was selected for the Alpha Parasite...

But I just can't see how any of this helps the village. Scoop's wild claim caused El Guapo to out himself, which really wasn't necessary at this time (although Remus seemed to insist it was).

Remember too that the Villagers don't get an Alpha. Unlike the Parasites, Villager Special roles were randomly selected AFTER the Alpha Parasite picked its partners. Two of the three wolves were specifically chosen for their team; the good Specials weren't.

If you were a wolf, which two partners would you pick?

I don't think chances are high Scoop is a parasite, but let's think this through.

1. If we lynch Scoop and he is the Berserker parasite, then El Guapo dies with another villager. We then go into Day 2 with 2 dead villagers (1 special) and 1 dead parasite.

That's the same as if El Guapo missed his protection on Night 0 -- but we take down a parasite. Seems like a win (even if unlikely).

2. If Scoop is a villager (and doing this because he's bored or crazy), then we miss safely while eliminating the distraction of Scoop. I don't think it is likely that a parasite "made Scoop do it." Seems neutral (even if likely), except for missing a 3/12 chance of getting lucky picking someone else.

If you don't want to vote for Scoop, who is a better target?

I wanted to add....

-I think scoop is Mr. splodie

-if we think he is mr. splodie why not take him out now? AND FAST

hear me out....why should we wait and deliberate any more? doing that gives the wolves more time to suss out who is likely a special and who isn't. IF we bum rush scoop out and fast....then they will have to make a very quick decission without a lot of analysis.

-more importantly....IF he is Mr. Splodie...the village is at peak "hit points" and there are many more targets for our specials to hide amongst. The chances of them hitting a special is low. I realize El Guapo is in this mix...but i figure he goes down too...odds are they will take out el guapo & if luck shines on us, a normal villager.

-so basically lynch scoop
- scoop takes out X
wolves at night take out el guapo.

ALSO, this eliminates the question of "Scoop" for the rest of the game and he is no longer a distraction. Because eventually we will have to cross that bridge, why not go through it first?

for those reasons:

 remove RMC 
 


 scoop 
 

I'd like to note Newcastle"s opinion that I am Mr. Splodie came directly following my vote for him.

That's interesting cause and then the effect.

Also, do you guys really think any ALPHA would willingly and of clear mind pick me?

Oooooh. I think this Mechanic.


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Lassr wrote: Players ----------- Voted For:
1 Newcastle----- RMC
2 Vorret----------
3 Holman--------
4 BB2112--------- Moliere
5 Scoop----------
6 Archinerd-----
7 El Guapo-------
8 Zarathud-------
9 Punisher-------
10 Unagi-----------
11 Remus West---
12 RMC------------ BB2112
13 Grundbegriff--
14 Moliere-------- Scoop
.
.
Targets ----------- Voters
( Scoop---------- 1 )--- Moliere ---
( BB2112--------- 1 )--- RMC
( Moliere-------- 1 )--- BB2112
( RMC------------ 1 )--- Newcastle
( )---

Deaths


Majority = 8

You missed my vote for Grund.

Scoop20906 wrote: Also, do you guys really think any ALPHA would willingly and of clear mind pick me?

Are you not the *perfect* Splodie?

On the other hand, are you claiming to be the Alpha?

If you're a villager, you've already unnecessarily exposed our Protector. What for?

If we have a hunter, would it make sense for him to kill Scoop today?

Archinerd wrote:

Lassr wrote: Players ----------- Voted For:
1 Newcastle----- RMC
2 Vorret----------
3 Holman--------
4 BB2112--------- Moliere
5 Scoop----------
6 Archinerd-----
7 El Guapo-------
8 Zarathud-------
9 Punisher-------
10 Unagi-----------
11 Remus West---
12 RMC------------ BB2112
13 Grundbegriff--
14 Moliere-------- Scoop
.
.
Targets ----------- Voters
( Scoop---------- 1 )--- Moliere ---
( BB2112--------- 1 )--- RMC
( Moliere-------- 1 )--- BB2112
( RMC------------ 1 )--- Newcastle
( )---

Deaths


Majority = 8

You missed my vote for Grund.

yep, I keep forgetting to email my file from work to home and back. So I will fix it in the morning since my most recent file is there...

an added thought:

why would scoop come out today and falsely claim the protector...if he comes out first, he is likely to be believed; therefore the 2nd person making the claim is less likely to be believed...and in all likelihood being lynched. In that scenario scoop lives to day 2 and gets lynched and the village votes off its protector. Just saying...

Vote scoop and vote often!

I think it's 'Scoop the hired zerker'.


I also think Moliere is a good 'other'.

I don't mind being scanned tonight, btw.
 Scoop 
 

bb2112 wrote:I am also not too keen on Unagi. Seems like he took Scoop at face value way too easily and I don't like the waste of a scan on Scoop this early.

I took 'that he made a claim' at face value (while other discussed if the Protector should come out). I never 'took his claim' at face value. I pressed his claim, so that everyone heard it.

Kill me!!!!


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I can't think of a good reason not to give Scoop his wish.

 Scoop 
 

El Guapo wrote:

Vorret wrote:

El Guapo wrote:

Vorret wrote:If Scoop was a wolf the only thing that would have made sense is to come out and say :

I'm the protector and I protected El Guapo last night.

Just alluring at the role is odd though since it doesn't help in any way.

No, a wolf Scoop definitely wouldn't say that. The only people who know for certain who was targeted last night are the wolves and the protector. Since I know that I'm the protector, if Scoop specifically claimed that he protected me, then I would know essentially for certain that he was a wolf. In that scenario he could succeed in getting the village to lynch me today, but even if he did he would be the next lynch tomorrow.

I'm on the fence. On the one hand my gut (though that's not terribly reliable in these games) finds the "Scoop as villager trying to draw fire" a little more plausible. BUT on the other hand for a day 1 lynch Scoop is high reward low risk (since he's either a wolf or a regular villager).

Actually he could last 3 days with that claim.
You die tonight, tomorrow he doesn't die at night (he protects himself) we don't lynch him on D2, if he doesn't die on N3 then yeah, now he gets lynched.

It's not a bad gamble and it kills our protector right off the bat.

He could last three days with his "I'm a protector" claim without saying who he protected. He would only last one day if he said that he had protected me, because then either he or me would have to be a wolf (once I contested his protector claim).

He would absolutely be the lynch since his "claim" would have made it impossible for him to say you are a wolf which would mean the only possible lie in that scenario would be his.

bb2112 wrote:

Vorret wrote:I'm not sure Scoop is a wolf... I guess he could be but why overexpose on day one, makes no sense to me.

That's what I'm saying.

 Moliere 
 


Pushing hard for a Scoop lynch.

I am also not too keen on Unagi. Seems like he took Scoop at face value way too easily and I don't like the waste of a scan on Scoop this early. I do agree with let the wolves sort the Scoop thing out. But it is too early to vote Unagi. If he is good, he is too good of a detective for the village to lose this early.

If he is a wolf then we go after him. This crap about "too early" is just that, crap.

Holman wrote:I think the funniest outcome is if Scoop was selected for the Alpha Parasite...

But I just can't see how any of this helps the village. Scoop's wild claim caused El Guapo to out himself, which really wasn't necessary at this time (although Remus seemed to insist it was).

Remember too that the Villagers don't get an Alpha. Unlike the Parasites, Villager Special roles were randomly selected AFTER the Alpha Parasite picked its partners. Two of the three wolves were specifically chosen for their team; the good Specials weren't.

If you were a wolf, which two partners would you pick?

I did not "seem to" I was insisting on it. It makes zero sense for the protector to stay silent at a time when he could provide us with 2 proven good players (the actual case of self protect being the worst case for us and yet still requires reveal IMO). Had El Guapo protected someone else and neither he nor the protected were the target of the Seer scans then the Seer would now have a block of 4 to work with rather than the 2 he would have had with a silent protector.

Interesting. I'm not buying Scoop as wolf and I don't really believe Unagi is either.
 Unagi 
 

Remus West wrote:Interesting. I'm not buying Scoop as wolf and I don't really believe Unagi is either.
 Unagi 
 

I'm not sure about the Scoop thing at all. His "Kill Me!" certainly didn't make him look more human, IMO.
However, he's either a wolf or a villager that's willing to start this game with a bit of a mess.
Had everything gone "as Scoop would have liked" - he would have been looked at as perhaps a Protector tomorrow, and El Guapo would be dead without ever telling anyone his role and that he self protected. That's on Scoop.



Strange vote you just placed.

I doubt Scoop is a wolf but I also don't mind killing him after his odd blunder.
On the other hand, I'm very opposed to outing another special by shooting scoop.

Zarathud wrote:I can't think of a good reason not to give Scoop his wish.

 Scoop 
 

Just that it may let him 'splode' on someone they just scanned to be a special - and then also kill El Guapo tonight.
Short of us knowing he's the zerker and putting him away until the 'last kill' (luxury) - I'm not sure how to avoid it. (likewise with a shooter)

I guess I am fine with  Scoop20907 
 


Sensible as a low-risk high-reward day 1 choice. And (odds that Scoop's scheme was a wacky wolf scheme instead of a wacky villager scheme) + (odds that we out another special if we poke around semi-randomly) > (odds that we happen to hit a non-Scoop wolf on day 1).

El Guapo wrote:
(odds that we out another special if we poke around semi-randomly) > (odds that we happen to hit a non-Scoop wolf on day 1).

Yeah... that really is the best reason to vote Scoop right now. I don't really think he's a wolf but maybe we will get lucky.
 Withdraw Grund 
 

 Scoop 
 


N-2

We've decided N-2 is the new N-1, right?

Any last words to help the village, Scoop?

Remus West wrote:Interesting. I'm not buying Scoop as wolf and I don't really believe Unagi is either.
 Unagi 
 

???

One thing we haven't done is try to figure what roles the Parasites are likely to have picked.

I'm guessing they would want the Seeker and the Bombardier, and probably the Prober too.

Manipulator, as discussed earlier, seems not very useful, especially since the Devioid's hidden vote can accomplish the same thing while being uncounterable. Apparently it can even be withdrawn and preserved if the wind is blowing the Wolves' way.

bb2112 wrote:

Remus West wrote:Interesting. I'm not buying Scoop as wolf and I don't really believe Unagi is either.
 Unagi 
 

???

I was very confused by what Remus posted too, until I realized that what he meant was, "I'm not buying Scoop as wolf and I don't really believe Unagi is buying that Scoop is a wolf either."

El Guapo wrote:

bb2112 wrote:

Remus West wrote:Interesting. I'm not buying Scoop as wolf and I don't really believe Unagi is either.
 Unagi 
 

???

I was very confused by what Remus posted too, until I realized that what he meant was, "I'm not buying Scoop as wolf and I don't really believe Unagi is buying that Scoop is a wolf either."

Thanks, that makes more sense.

I don't think Scoop is a wolf either, but by his own admission he is a safe lynch. I would much rather test someone else today.

Another thought, when El G came out, Scoop didn't try to fight it. A wolf would have.

Unagi is wrong about me having a plan to look like the protector tomorrow. Truly, that would have made no sense as almost everyone would have assumed the protector who is El Guapo would have self-protected. My only plan was to take a special situation where history repeated itself (the protector got lucky protecting someone else) and draw the bad guys attack instead of who ever they attacked.

I didn't care if it worked or not. I was also interested to see reactions. Right now from my perspective newcastle looks the more guilty.

I am more than happy to be the safe vote today. No special was harmed in this play and PLEASE don't tell me I caused El Guapo to out himself. He was going to have to announce today anyway unless he protected someone else.

El Guapo wrote:

bb2112 wrote:

Remus West wrote:Interesting. I'm not buying Scoop as wolf and I don't really believe Unagi is either.
 Unagi 
 

???

I was very confused by what Remus posted too, until I realized that what he meant was, "I'm not buying Scoop as wolf and I don't really believe Unagi is buying that Scoop is a wolf either."

Ahh! yeah, I totally didn't get that, but I bet you are right.

And Remus, I'm not 'convinced' he's a wolf, I just see it as being a possibility - and the alternate is that he's a villager that is demonstrably reckless?

Scoop20906 wrote:Unagi is wrong about me having a plan to look like the protector tomorrow. Truly, that would have made no sense as almost everyone would have assumed the protector who is El Guapo would have self-protected. My only plan was to take a special situation where history repeated itself (the protector got lucky protecting someone else) and draw the bad guys attack instead of who ever they attacked.

See, but that is what doesn't make sense to me. The plan you describe (as a villager), where you would suddenly draw their attack... As you said - it's assumed the protector self-protected, and he was exposed.
But, I also agree it doesn't make a great plan as a wolf...

Just not sure which 'bad plan' was half-baked.

Anyhow - I said it before, Perhaps Scoop is just a good scan candidate.
Good idea if he's the zerker.
 withdraw Scoop 
 



If he isn't a wolf, they will be hard-pressed to want to kill him soon - so he should be around when/if the Seer has some info to put out.

Scoop20906 wrote:Unagi is wrong about me having a plan to look like the protector tomorrow. Truly, that would have made no sense as almost everyone would have assumed the protector who is El Guapo would have self-protected. My only plan was to take a special situation where history repeated itself (the protector got lucky protecting someone else) and draw the bad guys attack instead of who ever they attacked.

I didn't care if it worked or not. I was also interested to see reactions. Right now from my perspective newcastle looks the more guilty.

I am more than happy to be the safe vote today. No special was harmed in this play and PLEASE don't tell me I caused El Guapo to out himself. He was going to have to announce today anyway unless he protected someone else.

The believable part of the plan - if you are a wolf:

First, I know how much it sucks to "miss Night 0" and get no kill.

This plan would have been built on that ire.

You come in and lie/declare you made another great save, as the zerker wolf you don't care where this ends up... The main goal just being to get the protector to counter you. That it was El Guapo is gravy and the point of your coming out would have been to see if it was worth it to actually re-visit El Guapo or not.


Not saying that IS what happened - just that I could see that plan being floated after the first night miss.

Dude, you are purposely missing this point?

A self-protecting protector has to come out whether he counters or not.

A non-self protecting protector does not have to come out and shouldn't counter me either since he could self-protect the next night. Right?


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Basically you are trying to tell me what my plan was and getting it wrong. Stick to your own evil plans please since you missed last night.


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Scoop20906 wrote:A self-protecting protector has to come out whether he counters or not.

A non-self protecting protector does not have to come out and shouldn't counter me either since he could self-protect the next night. Right?

To be clear, you are no longer claiming to be the Protector? If so, then when no one dies on Night 1 you don't know that they self-protected. Coming out as the Protector in order to trick the wolves into thinking it wasn't a self-protection seems a little far fetched.

Scoop20906 wrote: No special was harmed in this play and PLEASE don't tell me I caused El Guapo to out himself. He was going to have to announce today anyway unless he protected someone else.

That's wrong.

The fact remains the first thing you did on the day 1 opening....you "anounced" (heavily hinted) to the world you were the "protector". When you announced it you were in effect forcing El Guapo's hand. You didn't allow him to come out on his own or on his own terms, you FORCED the issue.

El guapo had to come out' regardless if he self protected or not. The fact that he did is simply an after thought here.

I can kind of see good scoop do that (spoof a good guy); but i far more see evil-blow em- up scoop jumping the gun here and forcing the issue.

My vote stays.

Hmm. I think I've broken this fame open. Two vocal wolves and one silent.

I go to my grave with peace.


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