Octopus Overlords

Now Scoop shoots someone, right?

And the Veto power is unlocked?

Damn. I trust Vorret. Unless the past week prior to me being sick was all some cruel joke. Nope, I still trust Vorret.

RMC wrote:Damn. I trust Vorret. Unless the past week prior to me being sick was all some cruel joke. Nope, I still trust Vorret.

It should be more than trust, right? That scan can't be faked. You know he got FF. Unless, or course, the scan didn't say he was a Liberal. Or you're a Fascist trying to sow doubt.

stessier wrote:

RMC wrote:Damn. I trust Vorret. Unless the past week prior to me being sick was all some cruel joke. Nope, I still trust Vorret.

It should be more than trust, right? That scan can't be faked. You know he got FF. Unless, or course, the scan didn't say he was a Liberal. Or you're a Fascist trying to sow doubt.

Of course he is a Liberal. That is what the scan told me, hence why I trust him.

In bizarro world.

Zarathud wrote:In bizarro world.

You know, you really should trust me more than others. I have met you in the real world and everything.

Scoop?

Fiasco. Drew FFF. Vorret had no choice as I had no choice.

I realize I have a bullet. I still think we can win this thing but it will require luck. We are fortunate to have a potential liberal as the next prez and Holman is available now.

Still I could potentially shoot hitler. I'd love to hear people's top candidates.

Scoop20906 wrote:Still I could potentially shoot hitler. I'd love to hear people's top candidates.

1) El Guapo

RMC wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:Still I could potentially shoot hitler. I'd love to hear people's top candidates.

1) El Guapo

Hitler?

Scoop20906 wrote:

RMC wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:Still I could potentially shoot hitler. I'd love to hear people's top candidates.

1) El Guapo

Hitler?

He's a Fascist, so you have a decent chance of hitting Hitler.

RMC wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:

RMC wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:Still I could potentially shoot hitler. I'd love to hear people's top candidates.

1) El Guapo

Hitler?

He's a Fascist, so you have a decent chance of hitting Hitler.

And if not, then you still reduce the number of Fascists, which gives a surviving Hitler fewer people to work with (namely, one-- if Remus and El Guapo are/were both Fascists).

The odds of correctly discerning Hitler are low: too many plausible candidates, including Holman, stessier, Chaosraven, and even Scoop.
The odds of correctly discerning a Fascist who may or may not be Hitler are high: El Guapo and Remus stand/fall together, and we're already all-in on Remus.

Seems to me El Guapo is the obvious choice.

Vulcan logic. Pah!

Note: We're now one vote away from victory for either team. However, if Liberals control the vote, then the deck cannot betray us. If the next draw is FFF, we veto; and the draw after that is certain to contain an L.

Edit: highly probable, but not certain to contain an L.

Ohhh. I like that!

Let's be sure that's true (or show it ain't)....

The deck was (FFFFFFF LL).

If Scoop is Liberal, then the deck now contains (FFFFF LL).

If the next draw were FFF (and required a veto), the talon would hold (FF LL).

bb2112 would deal 2 of those cards and then shuffle the remaining two into a discard pile that already contains FFFF.

So yes, it's possible that the deck could betray us and then betray us again (requiring two vetoi). If that happened, the deck would then contain (LLFFFF).

A third deck-betrayal would also be possible.

So no-- it's not certain that we'd win after a single veto. However, the odds are in our favor, simply because it's highly improbable that every draw after the first shuffle would lack an L.

Scoop, you must pick a player to kill.

The Veto power is now unlocked.

I'd like suggestions from others before I shoot.

I'm also in the process of picking out the firearm.

Scoop20906 wrote:I'm also in the process of picking out the firearm.

Moliere wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:I'm also in the process of picking out the firearm.

Somehow you read my mind ...

I continue to distrust Vorret, RMC, and maybe Grund.

Look at all those F's, and they talk like they're sure of each other in ways Liberals just shouldn't be. Moliere and I have a stellar record together, and I'm still not entirely sure of him.

Scoop20906 wrote:I'm also in the process of picking out the firearm.

The chief problem with Werewolf (when it lacks Necro) is that some players are excluded from the game. The Resistance/Avalon/SecretHitler mechanism does keep everyone involved, and keeps most players alive, but there's still a problem with it.

To form a strategy, however feeble, you have to lock onto a small number of players who are "proven"-- or nearly so-- through their enactment of Liberal policies, and then you have to sideline the rest. Even that may backfire, of course, but not doing this leads to chaos.

I feel bad about the fact that there are some fellow Liberals who would certainly do the right thing if given the opportunity, but who won't be given the opportunity just because they didn't happen, by chance, to have early turns that allowed them to demonstrate their allegiance.

Conflict is the basis for most interesting experiences. If it was fair it wouldn't be as interesting.

Eh... I'd go with El G simply because of his action with RMC unless you have a good read on someone you believe might be Hitler.

There are a few who haven't chimed in.

Scoop20906 wrote:There are a few who haven't chimed in.

El G for the fascist and Grundbegriff for Hitler.

Holman wrote:I continue to distrust Vorret, RMC, and maybe Grund.

Look at all those F's, and they talk like they're sure of each other in ways Liberals just shouldn't be. Moliere and I have a stellar record together, and I'm still not entirely sure of him.

I hear you... we had a stellar record last game so it really doesn't mean anything !

Moliere wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:There are a few who haven't chimed in.

El G for the fascist and Grundbegriff for Hitler.

You think el G and das G are on the same team?

Moliere wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:There are a few who haven't chimed in.

El G for the fascist and Grundbegriff for Hitler.

Grundbegriff wrote:

RMC wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:

RMC wrote:

Scoop20906 wrote:Still I could potentially shoot hitler. I'd love to hear people's top candidates.

1) El Guapo

Hitler?

He's a Fascist, so you have a decent chance of hitting Hitler.

And if not, then you still reduce the number of Fascists, which gives a surviving Hitler fewer people to work with (namely, one-- if Remus and El Guapo are/were both Fascists).

The odds of correctly discerning Hitler are low: too many plausible candidates, including Holman, stessier, Chaosraven, and even Scoop.
The odds of correctly discerning a Fascist who may or may not be Hitler are high: El Guapo and Remus stand/fall together, and we're already all-in on Remus.

Seems to me El Guapo is the obvious choice.

I would just point out that I am in fact a very inadvisable choice because: (1) I am a liberal, and more importantly: (2) going "all in" on one perceived 'team' is incredibly risky. We started with a two liberal majority. If you execute me after Remus because you believe us to be both on the same team (and both fascists) and you are wrong --which you are-- then we lose our majority. The fascists simply vote no in unison unless the ticket is at least 50% fascist, and probably win on a flip.

So Scoop should shoot RMC. Even if you are doubtful of me, at least by not executing someone off of the same list you can be pretty confident that we will retain our majority.

As proven in this post, there are two possible scenarios in which El Guapo and Remus share the Fascist alignment, and there's only one in which they differ. If El Guapo and Remus do not share alignment, then Vorret is a Liberal and RMC is a Fascist.

Grundbegriff wrote:...
Based on The Upshot™, these are the alignments we face. One of the following is a correct assignment:
Fascist: El Guapo, Remus West; Liberal: Vorret, RMC
Fascist: Vorret, RMC; Liberal: El Guapo Remus West
Fascist: Remus West, RMC; Liberal: El Guapo, Vorret

This fact implies that the choice of target is between El Guapo and RMC. One of them is lying.

There is no scenario in which Vorret colluded with RMC and yet El Guapo and Remus differ. So take for granted that Vorret really drew FFF and gave FF to RMC. The only thing we know about RMC is that he claims that Vorret scanned as a Liberal. And Vorret claims Remus was a Fascist.

I don't know for sure which one of them is evil; I've been working on the premise that RMC told the truth about Vorret and that Vorret told the truth about Remus. We've killed Remus for that reason. The only course of action that stays true to what we've done is to kill El Guapo.

Do we (stay consistent, and risk that we're totally wrong for the chance that we're game-winningly right)? Or do we (do something inconsistent, so that we negate our possible advantage by offsetting one good kill with one bad kill)?

I'll give some more time to hear from others. If they don't want to venture an opinion then why are they playing?

Has anything in the gameplay so far given us a reason to trust Vorret's claim against Remus and RMC's scan of Vorret?

Anything at all?

Holman wrote:Has anything in the gameplay so far given us a reason to trust Vorret's claim against Remus and RMC's scan of Vorret?

Anything at all?

Nope... but I've passed a few (lol) F policies so far and every single time the Prez has said he got FFF. The one time I was president I also got FFF.
Doesn't prove anything but I'm not putting F on the board because I want to, bad draws are attracted to me

Shoot me. At least then I can stop checking in.

Chaosraven wrote:Shoot me. At least then I can stop checking in.

See? It's so, so sad.

Shoot El Guapo. You have trusted us this far, let's keep it going.

If Vorret or I had gotten better draws, this game would have already been over. Or if El Guapo had not betrayed me, because he is a scum sucking Fascist.