The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

[Holman]

Oh, hey. Oops. Who hasn't misplaced 700 voting machines from time to time?

[LordMortis]

As predicted, Rashida Tlaib easily won my district. I don't buy in to hypberbole surrounding Congress needing to reflect demographics as if voting could somehow align with affirmative action enforcement, but I'm exceptionally glad, if not proud that we have voted in the first muslim woman to Congress.

ahem, along with Minnesota: http://www.startribune.com/ilhan-omar-b ... 499708271/

Justin Amash and Thomas Massie, Two of the Most Libertarian Members of Congress, Re-Elected

More good news from tonight's election results: it looks like Michigan Republican Rep. Justin Amash will be back for another term. A.P. and other outlets are calling the race for Amash, and the candidate himself has tweeted out his thanks.

Republican Rep. Thomas Massie—like Amash, a member of the House Liberty Caucus* and one of a few routine bright spots in Congress for libertarians—will also be back, after winning re-election in Kentucky.

Finding sympathetic souls in Congress is largely a losing proposition for libertarians, but more so than almost any other current member of Congress, Amash has stood out as a principled defender of civil liberties and restrained government.

In a different decade I could be glad for Amash. He's what the so called freedom caucus should be and as far as I can tell he stands alone. I can usually respect him even if I often don't agree with him.

[noxiousdog]

A shitty and unpopular government isn't necessarily unstable.

Non sequitur. A shitty and unpopular government isn't necessarily unstable. But this shitty and unpopular government is necessarily unstable.

By what measure?

[Zaxxon]

Already answered (and obvious from today's events). Feel free to disagree.

[Little Raven]

How so?

We lost more ground in the Senate than I was expecting. Before, I thought we had pretty good odds of picking up the Senate in 2020. Now, we pretty much have to run the table - at least, assuming Trump wins reelection. It gets slightly easier if he doesn't.

[LawBeefaroni]

Now, we pretty much have to run the table - at least, assuming Trump wins reelection. It gets slightly easier if he doesn't.

His odds of winning in 2020 will be higher than they were in 2016.

[Grifman]

Irony - the Democrats arguably lost the House awhile back due to a the passage of Obamacare, and the Republicans arguably just lost the House due to trying to repeal Obamacare. American voters are so fickle.

[geezer]

Irony - the Democrats arguably lost the House awhile back due to a the passage of Obamacare, and the Republicans arguably just lost the House due to trying to repeal Obamacare. American voters are so fickle.

Fickle? That's an awfully nice way of saying "uninformed and ignorant."

[Kraken]

Now, we pretty much have to run the table - at least, assuming Trump wins reelection. It gets slightly easier if he doesn't.

His odds of winning in 2020 will be higher than they were in 2016.

Having incumbency and the full support of the GOP behind him supports your proposition, but much depends on his opponent. Hillary presented a unique opportunity by being one of the few people less liked or trusted than Trump (and yet she still won by 3 million votes). One hopes that the next Democratic nominee will be specifically selected as a Trump-killer.

[Defiant]

If the economy is doing poorly (or Trump is otherwise less popular than normal, or a really popular Democrat runs for President), I could see Democrats making Senate gains where you otherwise wouldn't expect them. Otherwise, I agree that it would be much more difficult to recapture the Senate in 2020 if they have to win 4-5 seats, but I wouldn't discount the possibility of winning such seats (a scandal pops up, or a candidate that fits the state runs - don't forget, nine of the Senators in this class are Freshman who replaced Democrats four years ago, some of whom had replaced Republicans six years before that. The circle of life.... )

[gbasden]

And yes, my biggest disappointment with the country in general is that apparently roughly half of us think racism, blatant lying, and misogyny is OK - or are at least willing to turn a blind eye to it. And it's especially disheartening to realize a good portion of those folks are my friends, family, and co-workers.

I'm honestly pretty much done with having those people in my life. Luckily I don't have many co-workers I have to deal with, but I am pretty much done with friends and family that are rabid Trumpists. I don't have room in my life for people who think that facts are optional and it's ok to use xenophobia and racism to excite their base.

[RunningMn9]

I'm shocked. There's not a single reference on the Fox News homepage related to the impending invasion at our southern border. Is that all fixed now?

[msteelers]

The Scott/Nelson Senate race in Florida drags on. Late returns put Scotts lead at 0.38%. State law calls for an automatic recount if the race is under 0.5%. Incredibly, as of yesterday afternoon they were still counting ballots in Palm Beach, Broward, and Duval counties. Those are all areas that favor Nelson, especially Broward, where he is beating Scott by 250K votes.

Of course, Governor Scott is having none of this. He's declared himself the winner, and is calling on Nelson to concede. The recount needs to be called by the Secretary of State, who is a Scott appointee. He's been pretty much MIA since yesterday.

FWIW, Gillum is gaining votes during this process as well. But it's unlikely that he will get to within the half a percent margin to trigger the automatic recount.

[Z-Corn]

As predicted, Rashida Tlaib easily won my district. I don't buy in to hypberbole surrounding Congress needing to reflect demographics as if voting could somehow align with affirmative action enforcement, but I'm exceptionally glad, if not proud that we have voted in the first muslim woman to Congress.

ahem, along with Minnesota: http://www.startribune.com/ilhan-omar-b ... 499708271/

Justin Amash and Thomas Massie, Two of the Most Libertarian Members of Congress, Re-Elected

More good news from tonight's election results: it looks like Michigan Republican Rep. Justin Amash will be back for another term. A.P. and other outlets are calling the race for Amash, and the candidate himself has tweeted out his thanks.

Republican Rep. Thomas Massie—like Amash, a member of the House Liberty Caucus* and one of a few routine bright spots in Congress for libertarians—will also be back, after winning re-election in Kentucky.

Finding sympathetic souls in Congress is largely a losing proposition for libertarians, but more so than almost any other current member of Congress, Amash has stood out as a principled defender of civil liberties and restrained government.

In a different decade I could be glad for Amash. He's what the so called freedom caucus should be and as far as I can tell he stands alone. I can usually respect him even if I often don't agree with him.

I like Justin and I would have voted for him but I couldn't out of principle. That and I knew he'd win anyway, he's very popular here and he does do a pretty good job.

[Z-Corn]

And yes, my biggest disappointment with the country in general is that apparently roughly half of us think racism, blatant lying, and misogyny is OK - or are at least willing to turn a blind eye to it. And it's especially disheartening to realize a good portion of those folks are my friends, family, and co-workers.

I'm honestly pretty much done with having those people in my life. Luckily I don't have many co-workers I have to deal with, but I am pretty much done with friends and family that are rabid Trumpists. I don't have room in my life for people who think that facts are optional and it's ok to use xenophobia and racism to excite their base.

I've completely removed family members from my life over this. Well, my wife's family. My family knows what critical thinking entails.

[msteelers]

And yes, my biggest disappointment with the country in general is that apparently roughly half of us think racism, blatant lying, and misogyny is OK - or are at least willing to turn a blind eye to it. And it's especially disheartening to realize a good portion of those folks are my friends, family, and co-workers.

I'm honestly pretty much done with having those people in my life. Luckily I don't have many co-workers I have to deal with, but I am pretty much done with friends and family that are rabid Trumpists. I don't have room in my life for people who think that facts are optional and it's ok to use xenophobia and racism to excite their base.

I've completely removed family members from my life over this. Well, my wife's family. My family knows what critical thinking entails.

Sadly, it's members of my family that lack the critical thinking skills. It's a little harder to cut them out when they are your parents.

[Unagi]

I'm shocked. There's not a single reference on the Fox News homepage related to the impending invasion at our southern border. Is that all fixed now?

Yeah, didn't you hear? Most of them died of small pox. The few that remained were killed by the suicide bomber that was embedded in the caravan.

Keep up man.

[Carpet_pissr]

Sadly, it's members of my family that lack the critical thinking skills. It's a little harder to cut them out when they are your parents.

QFT

[Unagi]

The Scott/Nelson Senate race in Florida drags on. Late returns put Scotts lead at 0.38%. State law calls for an automatic recount if the race is under 0.5%. Incredibly, as of yesterday afternoon they were still counting ballots in Palm Beach, Broward, and Duval counties. Those are all areas that favor Nelson, especially Broward, where he is beating Scott by 250K votes.

Of course, Governor Scott is having none of this. He's declared himself the winner, and is calling on Nelson to concede. The recount needs to be called by the Secretary of State, who is a Scott appointee. He's been pretty much MIA since yesterday.

FWIW, Gillum is gaining votes during this process as well. But it's unlikely that he will get to within the half a percent margin to trigger the automatic recount.

Honestly curious. Has a recount ever resulted in a reversal of the original 'winner' ?

[msteelers]

The Scott/Nelson Senate race in Florida drags on. Late returns put Scotts lead at 0.38%. State law calls for an automatic recount if the race is under 0.5%. Incredibly, as of yesterday afternoon they were still counting ballots in Palm Beach, Broward, and Duval counties. Those are all areas that favor Nelson, especially Broward, where he is beating Scott by 250K votes.

Of course, Governor Scott is having none of this. He's declared himself the winner, and is calling on Nelson to concede. The recount needs to be called by the Secretary of State, who is a Scott appointee. He's been pretty much MIA since yesterday.

FWIW, Gillum is gaining votes during this process as well. But it's unlikely that he will get to within the half a percent margin to trigger the automatic recount.

Honestly curious. Has a recount ever resulted in a reversal of the original 'winner' ?

I asked the same question yesterday. I can't think of a single time that it has. But we live in strange times.

[Carpet_pissr]

I'm shocked. There's not a single reference on the Fox News homepage related to the impending invasion at our southern border. Is that all fixed now?

Yeah, didn't you hear? Most of them died of small pox. The few that remained were killed by the suicide bomber that was embedded in the caravan.

Keep up man.

I believe the current response is “they raped and murdered each other until only a handful remained, and MS 13 (Boo!!) killed off the survivors and ate their corpses. No longer a threat”.

[pr0ner]

I'm shocked. There's not a single reference on the Fox News homepage related to the impending invasion at our southern border. Is that all fixed now?

Well, they did change the name.

[Defiant]

Honestly curious. Has a recount ever resulted in a reversal of the original 'winner' ?

Out of 4,687 statewide general elections between 2000 and 2015, just 27 were followed by recounts, according to data compiled by FairVote, a nonpartisan group that researches elections and promotes electoral reform. Just three of those 27 recounts resulted in a change in the outcome, all leading to wins for Democrats: Al Franken’s win in Minnesota’s 2008 U.S. Senate race, Thomas M. Salmon’s win in Vermont’s 2006 auditor election and Christine Gregoire’s win in Washington’s 2004 gubernatorial race.

link

[msteelers]

I just got an email from Nelson's campaign. They are having a conference call at 10:30 with an elections lawyer to discuss moving forward with the recounts. They are claiming several voting irregularities around the state.

I'm not holding my breath, but I can't stand Scott and any chance of keeping him off my TV for the next 6 years would be great.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

I thought it was state law in Florida that recounts occur automatically if the margin of victory is less 0.5%. Is that not the case? If it is, then Nelson shouldn't even have to ask for the recount.

[Unagi]

link

Thanks!

[msteelers]

I thought it was state law in Florida that recounts occur automatically if the margin of victory is less 0.5%. Is that not the case? If it is, then Nelson shouldn't even have to ask for the recount.

Nelson could concede and they wouldn't be required to do the recount. That's what Scott is trying to force Nelson to do. Nelson has said he will push for the recount.

Damn, Gillum has gotten close to triggering the mandatory recount too. He's now at 0.52%. It's coming down to provisional ballots. Looks like people who filled out provisional ballots have until 5pm today to prove who they are.

[stessier]

538 did an article once that anything under 1% is basically a tie. We don't have the ability to count better than that when the numbers get that big.. Be fun to try and codify that.

[naednek]

And this malapportionment is only going to get worse. By 2040, according to Baruch College’s David Birdsell, about 70 percent of Americans are expected to live in just 15 states. That means that the vast majority of Americans will control just 30 percent of the Senate, while the remaining 70 senators are elected by just 30 percent of the nation.

Could always move people into those red states. Convince, what, 500,000 Democrats to move to Wyoming and you get yourself two Democratic senators....

Why not break California and New York into about 15 different states. That's a nice boon in terms of number of senators as well.

There was actually an initiative in California to break it up into 3 states. But the SCOCA pulled it off the ballot as unconstitutional.

Don't forget, a stupid idea too

[Jaymann]

And this malapportionment is only going to get worse. By 2040, according to Baruch College’s David Birdsell, about 70 percent of Americans are expected to live in just 15 states. That means that the vast majority of Americans will control just 30 percent of the Senate, while the remaining 70 senators are elected by just 30 percent of the nation.

Could always move people into those red states. Convince, what, 500,000 Democrats to move to Wyoming and you get yourself two Democratic senators....

Why not break California and New York into about 15 different states. That's a nice boon in terms of number of senators as well.

There was actually an initiative in California to break it up into 3 states. But the SCOCA pulled it off the ballot as unconstitutional.

Don't forget, a stupid idea too

I concur. It would not mean 6 senators anyway.

[Remus West]

And yes, my biggest disappointment with the country in general is that apparently roughly half of us think racism, blatant lying, and misogyny is OK - or are at least willing to turn a blind eye to it. And it's especially disheartening to realize a good portion of those folks are my friends, family, and co-workers.

I'm honestly pretty much done with having those people in my life. Luckily I don't have many co-workers I have to deal with, but I am pretty much done with friends and family that are rabid Trumpists. I don't have room in my life for people who think that facts are optional and it's ok to use xenophobia and racism to excite their base.

I've completely removed family members from my life over this. Well, my wife's family. My family knows what critical thinking entails.

Sadly, it's members of my family that lack the critical thinking skills. It's a little harder to cut them out when they are your parents.

My eldest sister and her family (I give the kids leeway because they are still young, old enough to vote but lacking independence of thought still) are Trump supporters. My sister is a teacher. In Wisconsin. They also supported Walker. My elderly parents who are both very liberal live with them due to declining health. My mother can be...difficult.....yet I still pity her rather than them due to the political situation. I used to talk to my sister almost daily. I can not remember the last time I spoke with her about anything other than my parents care since 2016 election. Its too hard to not yell at her.

[El Guapo]

I thought it was state law in Florida that recounts occur automatically if the margin of victory is less 0.5%. Is that not the case? If it is, then Nelson shouldn't even have to ask for the recount.

Nelson could concede and they wouldn't be required to do the recount. That's what Scott is trying to force Nelson to do. Nelson has said he will push for the recount.

Damn, Gillum has gotten close to triggering the mandatory recount too. He's now at 0.52%. It's coming down to provisional ballots. Looks like people who filled out provisional ballots have until 5pm today to prove who they are.

FWIW:

[Paingod]

So that means they can give up a couple votes each time and say "Look, we're not unified and abusing the system" ... right?

[El Guapo]

So that means they can give up a couple votes each time and say "Look, we're not unified and abusing the system" ... right?

Yeah, if they win all three then the Senate is 54-46 GOP. Only real chance is AZ, which would make it 53-47. For the most part I don't think it will matter much for 2019 and 2020. Kavanaugh basically showed that the previous Senate wasn't going to do anything major to block Trump nominations, and even if the Democrats had kept it at 51-49, several of the 'moderates' (who were almost all talk anyway) were on their way out regardless. It probably will let Collins cast some "no" votes in that time in hopes of building up her reelection prospects in 2020, although I am inclined to think it's probably too late for her and that she's going to go the way of Heller in 2020.

The bigger problem is that it's going to make it significantly harder for Democrats to take the Senate in 2020 (though, if they get the presidency, they'll only need to make it to 50). Well, and the bigger problem still is that the Senate is only going to become less representative over time, but god knows how we'll ever fix that.

[GreenGoo]

Remember when Senators voted based on the merits of what they were voting on, and how it affected their specific constituents, rather than whichever way their party told them to vote?

Yeah, me neither.

I think that's my biggest problem with gerrymandering and general shady practices. It would be one thing if you were doing it because you feel you can help your people more than the other guy. At least it would be a mitigating factor in an "ends justify the means" sort of way. Instead it's just a mad, naked power grab with absolutely no thought about what it means for the people they represent.

[tjg_marantz]

Don't look now but Florida has something going on...



Follow quoted thread. Something screwy happened.

[El Guapo]

Nelson's lawyer is indicating that he thinks it may be due to a voting machine error in Broward:



Seems promising for Nelson. The margin's now within automatic hand count territory, and presumably if it was a machine error then there should be ~ 30,000 more Senate votes (from a heavily Democratic county).

[Defiant]

Where's this guy when you need him?

[El Guapo]

I gotta say - the writers are really getting lazy. Rehashing the "Florida recount" storyline a second time is just trite. Where are their new ideas?

[Defiant]

Are we sure this isn't a rerun, or a clips show?