Octopus Overlords

My, that escalated quickly. I hope they can topple Netanyahu.

Kraken wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 8:58 pm My, that escalated quickly. I hope they can topple Netanyahu.

It is hard to see how he prevails in the end. It seems more likely they'd see a short-term military junta than a stable Bibi dictatorship. And both are less likely than the Israeli governing coalition falling apart again. This is part of their dysfunction pushing them ever closer to the edge.

I'm ignorant to most things Israel. Can someone explain how Netanyahu went from being their Prime Minister, to not being their Prime Minister and under indictment, to then being their Prime Minister again in what seems like less than 2 years?

Scraper wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:37 am I'm ignorant to most things Israel. Can someone explain how Netanyahu went from being their Prime Minister, to not being their Prime Minister and under indictment, to then being their Prime Minister again in what seems like less than 2 years?

The quick explanation is that the Knesset being a Parliamentary body typically is built of coalitions. Very few parties have ever won an outright majority and control of the Knesset. In 2021, Bibi had been in charge for 12 years. He was indicted and a coalition of opponents reacting to those criminal legal issues built a power base able to remove him from power. That started a round of indecisive general elections where his party Likud generally maintained a significant plurality but not a majority. They required coalition partners. And over the last 2-3 years they have seen a period of intense pressure (e.g., COVID/Palestine/etc.) with sharp disagreements about policy. Those coalitions inevitably fail when some issue that is a hard line becomes an issue and breaks the government and forces a new election.

Meanwhile, the Israeli legal system has had serious issues dealing with a potentially corrupt would be autocrat in Netanyahu. The Attorney General recommended he be indicted in 2018. A trial kicked off in 2021. That trial has been plodding along. This judicial reform policy reformation is nominally about fixing inequities in the legal system but a lot of critics think it is about protecting Netanyahu. And that has finally boiled over as some percentage of the population sees the corruption and autocracy coming to a head and has indicated they reject it via mostly peaceful protest.

Edit: One more important note. This situation is very grim because the military and police were moving to side AGAINST Netanyahu in his efforts. Especially the armed forces. The IDF depends heavily on reservists. In recent months there has been a movement of reservists to resign or indicate they wouldn't report if called. This put pressure on the Defense Minister who eventually reported to Netanyahu a recommendation to halt judicial reform law since it impacting Israeli military readiness. He then fired the Defense Minister which precipitated this crisis. One of the fears right now is that Netanyahu may form or back a militia to crack down on protest since the police refused to do it. How real that concern is will play out over the coming days.

Good thing something like that couldn't happen here.

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:06 am

An alternative reading is that he's only going to postpone the legislation (for things to cool, and for the protests to lose momentum) and he's waiting for counter-protests to go ahead (that are currently being coordinated) before speaking (for the optics).

Perhaps, but the entire country is preparing to strike. It doesn't take a lot of emotion and momentum to strike. You just need to stop going to work.

Good luck waiting that out.

Also, did you *see* the streets? Holy hell, that's not a few disgruntled people that the country will ignore if there are counter-protests. I mean, who's left to counter-protest? From what I can tell from the pics, literally everyone is protesting against his changes.

Yeah, while there will be counter protests, I don't think they will be anything like what we've seen so far, and the optics could potentially backfire on Netanyahu.

Potential 2024 timeline:

Scraper wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:37 am Can someone explain how Trump went from being President, to not being President, to being under indictment, to then being President again in what seems like less than 2 years?

It’s horrifying we are seeing democracy dismantled everywhere in the name of freedumb.

It probably doesn't help when the brown people from the other side of the border have actually been killing civilians. /s

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:51 amEdit: One more important note. This situation is very grim because the military and police were moving to side AGAINST Netanyahu in his efforts. Especially the armed forces. The IDF depends heavily on reservists. In recent months there has been a movement of reservists to resign or indicate they wouldn't report if called. This put pressure on the Defense Minister who eventually reported to Netanyahu a recommendation to halt judicial reform law since it impacting Israeli military readiness. He then fired the Defense Minister which precipitated this crisis. One of the fears right now is that Netanyahu may form or back a militia to crack down on protest since the police refused to do it. How real that concern is will play out over the coming days.

Netanyahu gives nod to paramilitary militia to avoid his coalition falling apart. Israel is falling quickly into chaos.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir announced Monday that he had agreed to back Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s call for a pause on judicial overhaul legislation in exchange for a promise to create his long-sought “national guard.”

Ben Gvir circulated a letter to media outlets dated Monday and signed by Netanyahu, in which the prime minister vowed to raise the issue of forming such a body within the National Security Ministry in the upcoming cabinet meeting this Sunday.

The announcement came after Ben Gvir reportedly threatened to quit the government, endangering the coalition, if Netanyahu moved ahead with a plan to halt the judicial overhaul legislation.

So what happened is Bibi has committed to passing the judicial "reform" law by end of summer. In the meantime, he gave a hard right racist a private militia. In other words, he has tacitly given the man permission to prepare an assault on the protests that will clearly resume when they try to pass the law again. To protect himself he has tied Israel's future to an increasingly racist and radicalized authoritarian Jewish base.

What could possibly go wrong in a heavily armed society?

Washington Post

JERUSALEM - Israeli police raided one of this city’s holiest sites early Wednesday, arresting scores of Palestinians who were inside, and sparking rocket fire into Israeli airspace from Gaza and retaliatory Israeli airstrikes hours later.

The Palestinian Red Crescent Society said that at least 12 people were wounded outside the compound of al-Aqsa Mosque, a location sacrosanct to Muslims and Jews alike, after police used beatings and rubber bullets to clear the area.

It was not clear how many people were injured inside the mosque, the organization said, adding that it had not been able to enter the building earlier.

More than 350 people were arrested, according to Israeli police, who said people inside the mosque had locked the doors from the inside and threw stones and firecrackers at police as they forced their way into one of the two main prayer halls. At least two police officers were injured, the statement said.

A video shared by the Palestinian diplomatic mission to Britain appeared to show security forces beating people on the ground. The Washington Post could not independently verify the video.

The latest incident intensifies tensions during a time of growing political upheaval and violence in Israel and in the occupied Palestinian territories and as the Muslim holy month of Ramadan coincides with the Jewish Passover holiday.

Far-right religious nationalist members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government have previously supported activists that threatened to slaughter a lamb in the mosque’s compound, a move that would upend a decades-long status quo at the sensitive site, which is known to Jews as the Temple Mount.

In Jewish tradition, it is the site where the faith’s First and Second Temples once stood. For Muslims, it is the place from which the prophet Muhammad ascended to heaven.

The restart on the judicial "reform" law is back on and Israelis again are back on the streets in huge numbers. We'll see if Bibi's private militias show up and start cracking heads.We'll also see if the military starts revolting again in widespread "sick outs". A fraught moment for Israel.

Thousands of protesters blockaded Israel's main airport and major highways on Tuesday as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hard-right coalition pressed ahead with a justice bill that has opened the deepest splits seen in the country in decades.

A day after parliament passed a key element in the bill, which aims to curb the power of the Supreme Court, crowds of flag-waving protesters stopped morning traffic in major intersections and on highways nationwide. Some lay down on roads, while others threw flares.

...

The drive by Netanyahu's nationalist-religious coalition to change the justice system has sparked unprecedented protests, stirred concern for Israel's democratic health among Western allies and bruised the economy.

"They are trying to ruin our judicial system, by putting and enforcing laws that will demolish democracy," said Ariel Dubinsky, who joined one of the protests in Tel Aviv.

The proposals have also alarmed investors and helped push the shekel down almost 8% since January.

There's a recent poll showing that only around a third of Israelis want the judicial form done unilaterally as opposed to having a compromise. I'll see if I can find it.

https://en.idi.org.il/articles/50063

At the moment, there would appear to be three main possibilities for the future of the judicial reform being advanced by the government, and the Israeli public is divided in its preferences: In the total sample, the most common option chosen (though still only by a minority) was that the legislative process should be halted (36%), followed by the option for the program to continue only with broad agreement (29%). In third place was the option to continue with the legislation in its current form, in accordance with the coalition’s majority in the Knesset (25%).

It is also worth noting the discrepancies on this issue between voters for different parties, both those in the coalition and those in the opposition. While a majority of voters for Religious Zionism and for the Haredi parties think that the legislation should be advanced in its current form, only a minority of Likud voters agree. And in the opposition, almost half of the voters for National Unity say that the legislation should be advanced but only with broad agreement, while a majority of the voters for other opposition parties think that the legislation should be halted outright.

The poll was done between June 25 and 28 and has a +/-3.5 MoE.

Saying we'll partner with them is fine but the racist/apartheid part? That's a bad look. Israel has issues on this front and we shouldn't get on the wrong side of legitimate criticisms and opportunities to push them to improve. Especially with the Israeli government/army still often turning a blind eye to settlers running amok.

That's like when someone says, "I am not a liar." If, so why the need to say it?

Hey, looks like classified documents aren't the only inappropriate things that Trump has been keeping at Mar-A-Lago. Apparently he has Israeli antiquities there that Israel very much wants back.

The judicial reform crisis appears to be returning to the extremes we saw a few months ago with a breakdown across the military beginning again.

More than a thousand pilots and other personnel in the Israeli Air Force reserve said on Friday that they would stop reporting for duty if the government pushes through a contentious plan next week to reduce judicial power without broader consensus.

In a joint letter released Friday, 1,142 Air Force reservists — including 235 fighter pilots, 98 transport plane pilots, 89 helicopter pilots and 173 drone operators — said they would not serve if the government proceeded with its plan to reduce the ways in which the Supreme Court can overrule the government.

10,000 IDF Reservists quit as Bibi sails Israel into a political crisis like it has never seen. This is spiraling and might become a major regional crisis. The legislation was passed and there are talks of massive strikes, ongoing protest, a challenge to the Supreme Court to rule on whether they'll even accept this law and deepen the constitutional crisis, and further discord in the IDF.

Some 10,000 reservists from throughout the IDF will no longer show up for service, they announced in a press conference on Saturday evening, according to N12.

These reservists are joining more than 1,000 Air Force reservists who made the same announcement in a letter on Friday.

"This is one of the most difficult evenings for the State of Israel, but it's also one of the most important in the state's history," said Brothers in Arms leader Eyal Neve. "We represent some 10,000 reservists who are telling the government, the defense minister and the prime minister the responsibility is on you! If you want us on your side as we've served under right and left wing governments, we are calling on you to stop the legislation."

"I've served om the Air Force for 35 years," said a former fighter pilot. "The people in the force are my family, and this is a difficult day for us. The deep commitment to Judaism and democracy is the inner fuel of our engine. Our statement is clear: If the government violates the basic values and becomes a dictatorship, we won't serve."

This is like the Delta Force quitting. It's nuts.

One worry - is this type of thing going to allow Netanyahu to stack key military / security entities with loyalists who will act on the government's behalf if it comes to 'cracking heads' time?

He already did that to some extent in a law they passed in the spring. There was a fear they'd be cracking heads against these protests. Instead they just ignored the populace and went forward with the vote immediately because of the Knesset calendar. The apparent rush to get it done is what is sparking the most concern. They are making the near equivalent of constitutional changes with 64 votes (out of 120) which is why there is such extreme pushback.

Iran is sitting in the corner, smoking a cigar around a smirk, as they sharpen their knife.

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 12:22 am Iran is sitting in the corner, smoking a cigar around a smirk, as they sharpen their knife.

And Trump advisors are watching INTENTLY, while scribbling furiously in notebooks.

"....3. a. DEFANG SUPREME COURT...."

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 12:22 am Iran is sitting in the corner, smoking a cigar around a smirk, as they sharpen their knife.

The DM in you shows.

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 8:50 am

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 12:22 am Iran is sitting in the corner, smoking a cigar around a smirk, as they sharpen their knife.

And Trump advisors are watching INTENTLY, while scribbling furiously in notebooks.

"....3. a. DEFANG SUPREME COURT...."

Why would they defang a Supreme Court they’ve already co-opted?

Unagi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 9:47 am

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 12:22 am Iran is sitting in the corner, smoking a cigar around a smirk, as they sharpen their knife.

The DM in you shows.

That was my sleep deprivation showing.

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 12:38 pm

Unagi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 9:47 am

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 12:22 am Iran is sitting in the corner, smoking a cigar around a smirk, as they sharpen their knife.

The DM in you shows.

That was my sleep deprivation showing.

I thought it was a nice description. 'smoking a cigar around a smirk'... it paints a picture.

Unagi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 1:16 pm

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 12:38 pm

Unagi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 9:47 am

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 12:22 am Iran is sitting in the corner, smoking a cigar around a smirk, as they sharpen their knife.

The DM in you shows.

That was my sleep deprivation showing.

I thought it was a nice description. 'smoking a cigar around a smirk'... it paints a picture.

I look around the bar that Iran is in. Are there any wenches?

Unagi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 1:16 pm

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 12:38 pm

Unagi wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 9:47 am

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 12:22 am Iran is sitting in the corner, smoking a cigar around a smirk, as they sharpen their knife.

The DM in you shows.

That was my sleep deprivation showing.

I thought it was a nice description. 'smoking a cigar around a smirk'... it paints a picture.

Maybe, but I screwed up the presentation!

"Iran is sitting in the corner, smoking a cigar around a smirk, sharpening their knife."

See? Much better flow.

Kurth wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 10:32 am

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 8:50 am

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 12:22 am Iran is sitting in the corner, smoking a cigar around a smirk, as they sharpen their knife.

And Trump advisors are watching INTENTLY, while scribbling furiously in notebooks.

"....3. a. DEFANG SUPREME COURT...."

Why would they defang a Supreme Court they’ve already co-opted?

Because it’s not quite the lock that it could be. See recent voting rights decision for example.

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Jul 25, 2023 1:32 pm "Iran is sitting in the corner, smoking a cigar around a smirk, sharpening his knife."

Mortoned (because if any nation self-identifies as a dude, it's Iran).