Ukraine

[Max Peck]

Tenth Russian General Reportedly Killed in Ukraine

Ukrainian authorities say that Russian Maj. Gen. Andrei Simonov was killed near the city of Izyum of the northeastern region of Kharkiv.

National Guard units reported on April 30 that they spotted a field command post of the Russian 2nd Army in the area and passed the coordinates on to the military whose artillery fired on the positions. More than 30 Russian armored vehicles, including tanks, were reportedly struck in the rocket salvos.

Presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said in an interview published on YouTube that some 100 Russian servicemen were killed, including Simonov.

Public domain data available on what is the U.S. equivalent of a brigadier general, says that Simonov was a senior leader of electronic warfare units. According to open-source data followed by the Kyiv Post, his death would be the tenth among Russia’s corps of generals in Ukraine since Feb. 24.

Video posted on social media showed the alleged command post being struck by what appeared to be Grad rockets fired from a multiple-launch rocket system or systems.

Two Russian generals were reportedly killed, according to Ukrainian authorities, in the last week of April in the occupied part of Kherson region. A command post was also reportedly was struck there.

The Kyiv Post hasn’t been able to independently confirm any of the reported deaths.

[Drazzil]

If we do nothing it's effectively the end of NATO, and our influence in the east.

NATO is as united as it has ever been, Biden just requested $33B to fund the proxy war through September, and his administration stated that the goal is to degrade Russia's ability to fight. For comparison, occupying Afghanistan cost $40B per year.

We aren't doing nothing.

This might be my dumbass opinion but if NATO can't stop Russian agression towards a nation on its border, which by the way half of its member nations guaranteed Ukraine soverignty; whats the point?

[Kraken]

If we do nothing it's effectively the end of NATO, and our influence in the east.

NATO is as united as it has ever been, Biden just requested $33B to fund the proxy war through September, and his administration stated that the goal is to degrade Russia's ability to fight. For comparison, occupying Afghanistan cost $40B per year.

We aren't doing nothing.

This might be my dumbass opinion but if NATO can't stop Russian agression towards a nation on its border, which by the way half of its member nations guaranteed Ukraine soverignty; whats the point?

The point is knocking Russia's dick in the dirt without starting WW3, which will definitely happen if NATO/we engage them directly. Russia has revealed itself to be a paper tiger, much to everyone's surprise. Even if he ultimately succeeds in nicking a sliver of Ukraine, Putin has already paid an enormous price for it, and it's getting steeper every day.

[Carpet_pissr]

I suspect the ratio of ‘Generals’ to ..non-Generals is extremely low in Russia compared to Western armies.

[Max Peck]

Tenth Russian General Reportedly Killed in Ukraine

Twitter is all atwitter with rumors that the Chief of General Staff RAF, Valery Gerasimov, was present at this command post when it was attacked and that he was wounded but not killed.



A couple of days ago our friend Beau had some thoughts to share about Gen Gerasimov.



In other news from Russia, it appears that things continue to burn down (an ammo dump near Tomarovka, Belgorod Oblast) or fall down (a bridge in Kursk Oblast). Ok, both of those things might have blown up rather than burning/falling down...

[Drazzil]

If we do nothing it's effectively the end of NATO, and our influence in the east.

NATO is as united as it has ever been, Biden just requested $33B to fund the proxy war through September, and his administration stated that the goal is to degrade Russia's ability to fight. For comparison, occupying Afghanistan cost $40B per year.

We aren't doing nothing.

This might be my dumbass opinion but if NATO can't stop Russian agression towards a nation on its border, which by the way half of its member nations guaranteed Ukraine soverignty; whats the point?

The point is knocking Russia's dick in the dirt without starting WW3, which will definitely happen if NATO/we engage them directly. Russia has revealed itself to be a paper tiger, much to everyone's surprise. Even if he ultimately succeeds in nicking a sliver of Ukraine, Putin has already paid an enormous price for it, and it's getting steeper every day.

The point I was getting at is at some point Putin will get tired of getting his dick knocked in the dirt and either make good on his threats to use some sort of WMD, or threaten to; then what? Oh and you guys were right about the Ghost of Kviv being fake. CNN had a whole article on him in memorial. Then mysteriously removed it.

[YellowKing]

The point I was getting at is at some point Putin will get tired of getting his dick knocked in the dirt and either make good on his threats to use some sort of WMD, or threaten to; then what?

There's no reason to poke the bear if the bear is content to sit in one spot and slowly bleed out. The US/NATO have Russia in a trap, and there's no reason to give Putin an easy out. As horrific as the war is for Ukraine, I'm sure the US is perfectly fine with fighting a proxy war that decimates Russia's army without us having to fire a shot.

[Blackhawk]

Not to mention what it does to Putin's power and reputation.

Best case scenario, this could be the end of his regime, and he could go out in a manner that gives the Russian people a severe distaste for everything he stood for.

[Kraken]

He and his war are overwhelmingly popular at home because the Russian people are buying the story that they're saving Ukraine from Nazis. The oligarchy is less gullible, and they're feeling the heat. If enough oligarchs withdraw their backing, or if the public learns the real reason the body bags are coming home, Putin's support could evaporate quickly.

[malchior]

If enough oligarchs withdraw their backing, or if the public learns the real reason the body bags are coming home, Putin's support could evaporate quickly.

Unfortunately probably not, Putin has reacted to the failures by conducting widespread purges. There have been waves of "resignations" aka throwing IC leaders, generals, etc. in prison over the last month or two. At least one top FSB official was transferred from house arrest to Lefortovo prison. A prison run by the FSB itself!

Some of these purges were specifically to fix problems Putin created with his paranoia. Some of it to figure out how the heck the West got such astoundingly accurate intelligence that didn't even make it to high level officials in Putin's orbit. He is in effect doing the traditional Russian mafia state thing which is showing everyone no one is safe - except him. And it usually works.

[El Guapo]

He and his war are overwhelmingly popular at home because the Russian people are buying the story that they're saving Ukraine from Nazis. The oligarchy is less gullible, and they're feeling the heat. If enough oligarchs withdraw their backing, or if the public learns the real reason the body bags are coming home, Putin's support could evaporate quickly.

Well, we don't really know how popular Putin and the war are domestically, since approval is mandatory.

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[Alefroth]

TIL that Israel is not taking part in sanctions against Russia.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/isra ... -rcna26872

I hope that comes with consequences.

[Defiant]

Israel has implemented some of the sanctions (and isn't the only country to put limits on what it's willing to do). Israel has been doing a balancing act because Russia's military is on Israel's border and they don't want to provoke Russia because they need to coordinate with Russia so that they can go after and try to stop Iranian and Hezbollah activities in Syria. In addition, given that there are large Jewish populations in both Ukraine and Russia, having a good relationship with both can help in trying to secure their safety, particularly in a time of conflict.

Meanwhile, Israel has sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine (including setting up the first field hospital in Ukraine), accepted one of the highest per capita number of refugees outside of countries bordering Ukraine, has helped citizens from other countries evacuate from Ukraine, and has played a role in getting other countries to condemn Russia.

In addition, as one of the few countries with good relations with both countries, they've played a diplomatic role in mediating between the two countries, although it hasn't borne fruit.

[LawBeefaroni]

Israel signed a pact with Russia in 2019 not to sell arms to Ukraine. In return, Russia wouldn't sell to Iran. Russia is also a big purchaser of Israeli arms, particularly drones.

No idea what happens with all that if/when Israel sends arms to Ukraine.

[raydude]

Just to keep things in perspective; day to day the news in Ukraine seems hopeless, but if you look at the general trend so far they're not doing so bad.

[Defiant]

Just to keep things in perspective; day to day the news in Ukraine seems hopeless, but if you look at the general trend so far they're not doing so bad.

[Max Peck]

[Blackhawk]

It honestly looks like Ukraine would beat Russia in a traditional ground war.

Unfortunately, Russia would win a war of attrition.

The biggest things at this point, I think, is how much NATO and allied nations can bolster Ukraine in a war of attrition to delay defeat, and how long Russia has before the political and economic realities at home become the deciding factor. Those are the two biggest butts on the teeter-totter.

[Defiant]

I'm just a casual observer, so I could be wrong, but I think compared to where things looked at the start of the invasion, I think the situation look much better now - at the start, it looked like there would be an occupation of the all or most of the country, the government replaced with pro-Putin puppet government, the constitution forced to be changed, the country forced to demilitarize, etc. I wouldn't think any of those are likely possibilities any more.

[Blackhawk]

No, I don't see that happening. I think it is more of a question of how much of Ukraine is Russia going to get away with taking.

Ideally the answer would be 'zero', but I don't know how likely that is. Possibly they will sieze just enough to declare "mission accomplished" and sit on it, dealing with decades of insurgency.

[El Guapo]

No, I don't see that happening. I think it is more of a question of how much of Ukraine is Russia going to get away with taking.

Ideally the answer would be 'zero', but I don't know how likely that is. Possibly they will sieze just enough to declare "mission accomplished" and sit on it, dealing with decades of insurgency.

It seems like unless the fortunes of war swing decidedly in Russia's direction, then Putin is probably going to settle for taking the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, declaring victory, and then incorporate them (de facto or de jure) into Russia. Getting to that point is already a significant victory for Ukraine. The main questions are whether Ukraine and the West can prevent that militarily.

[Unagi]

Just to keep things in perspective; day to day the news in Ukraine seems hopeless, but if you look at the general trend so far they're not doing so bad.

Is that accurate? Is the area around Kyiv as free of Russian forces now, as it was before the war started?

[Defiant]

Something else that's hopefully has been gained - assuming this war ends somehow, it seems a lot less likely that Russia will start invading other countries (at least, until they rebuild their military into something actually competent, by which point I would hope the West and NATO would be better prepared for that risk)

[Defiant]

Is that accurate? Is the area around Kyiv as free of Russian forces now, as it was before the war started?

I believe so (at least, as accurate as such information would be available to us) - IIUC, they pulled back from Kiev to strengthen their position in the East.

[raydude]

Interesting force ratio comparison between the Ukranian and RU forces as of April 30. Note the near parity of force near Kherson and how 7 BTGs are supposed to cover 160km of front. Might make for a nice breakthrough by Ukraine to cutoff Crimea from the rest of the Russian occupied territories and/or force Russia to respond by shifting forces out of the east.

[raydude]

Is that accurate? Is the area around Kyiv as free of Russian forces now, as it was before the war started?

I believe so (at least, as accurate as such information would be available to us) - IIUC, they pulled back from Kiev to strengthen their position in the East.

There are also the reports of embassies re-opening now or soon in Kyiv, which probably wouldn't happen if Russia was anywhere near it.

[raydude]

Something else that's hopefully has been gained - assuming this war ends somehow, it seems a lot less likely that Russia will start invading other countries (at least, until they rebuild their military into something actually competent, by which point I would hope the West and NATO would be better prepared for that risk)

From what I've been reading that's not gonna happen unless Russia starts building a competent corps of NCOs and starts focusing on a bottom-up, rather than top-down implementation of orders. That means letting junior officers and NCO's use their brains and letting them use their own initiative, something that is anathema to a government that distrusts anyone but the person at the top.

[Defiant]

There are also the reports of embassies re-opening now or soon in Kyiv, which probably wouldn't happen if Russia was anywhere near it.

Well, I would think so, but there were several European leaders (err, apart from Zelenskyy) that visited Kyiv while it's outskirts were being shelled and I wouldn't have thought they would do that. Still, it probably corroborates the other stuff.

[Max Peck]

Is that accurate? Is the area around Kyiv as free of Russian forces now, as it was before the war started?

Yes, the surviving Russians withdrew from the north about a month ago in order to redeploy in the east.

[vitogenaro]

Hello everyone, I'm from Ukraine, I want to thank the United States and all their people for their military support. Also many thanks to the rest of the civilized world for not leaving us face to face in a war with the largest country in the world. I really hope that Ukraine will defeat Russia. Peace to all!

[Unagi]

Is that accurate? Is the area around Kyiv as free of Russian forces now, as it was before the war started?

I believe so (at least, as accurate as such information would be available to us) - IIUC, they pulled back from Kiev to strengthen their position in the East.

There are also the reports of embassies re-opening now or soon in Kyiv, which probably wouldn't happen if Russia was anywhere near it.

Well, I'm happy to hear it. I've just been trying to take all the news with a large block of salt, to be sure I wasn't getting ahead of myself with any optimism regarding the way things may be presented to us. It's remarkable to see that huge 'red mass' to the north of Kyiv just vanish as it does in the time-lapse.

[Unagi]

Is that accurate? Is the area around Kyiv as free of Russian forces now, as it was before the war started?

Yes, the surviving Russians withdrew from the north about a month ago in order to redeploy in the east.

I thought that the reports were just that their offensive push had stalled, not that they then totally withdrew from the whole area. I really do need this stuff spelled out for me.

[LordMortis]

Peace to all!

It's what I wish for.

[Combustible Lemur]

Is that accurate? Is the area around Kyiv as free of Russian forces now, as it was before the war started?

Yes, the surviving Russians withdrew from the north about a month ago in order to redeploy in the east.

I thought that the reports were just that their offensive push had stalled, not that they then totally withdrew from the whole area. I really do need this stuff spelled out for me.

I thought i read yesterday that parts of the new push stalled, around melitopol (not mariupol)

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[Alefroth]

Hello everyone, I'm from Ukraine, I want to thank the United States and all their people for their military support. Also many thanks to the rest of the civilized world for not leaving us face to face in a war with the largest country in the world. I really hope that Ukraine will defeat Russia. Peace to all!

How did you hear about Octopus Overlords?

[Jaymann]

Hello everyone, I'm from Ukraine, I want to thank the United States and all their people for their military support. Also many thanks to the rest of the civilized world for not leaving us face to face in a war with the largest country in the world. I really hope that Ukraine will defeat Russia. Peace to all!

How did you hear about Octopus Overlords?

He was playing Call of Pripyat.

[dbt1949]

He heard it thru the grapevine.

[vitogenaro]

Hello everyone, I'm from Ukraine, I want to thank the United States and all their people for their military support. Also many thanks to the rest of the civilized world for not leaving us face to face in a war with the largest country in the world. I really hope that Ukraine will defeat Russia. Peace to all!

How did you hear about Octopus Overlords?

friends advised, that's why I became interested

[gbasden]

Hello everyone, I'm from Ukraine, I want to thank the United States and all their people for their military support. Also many thanks to the rest of the civilized world for not leaving us face to face in a war with the largest country in the world. I really hope that Ukraine will defeat Russia. Peace to all!

How did you hear about Octopus Overlords?

friends advised, that's why I became interested

Welcome! It's nice to see you here!

[Default]

Welcome!