Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

[El Guapo]

Really, all I want out of a Biden presidency is federal voting rights legislation. If we get that, it will go a long way to helping us avoid this mess in the future.

Also, statehood for DC, and for PR if they want it.

[noxiousdog]

Really, all I want out of a Biden presidency is federal voting rights legislation. If we get that, it will go a long way to helping us avoid this mess in the future.

Also, statehood for DC, and for PR if they want it.

While I understand PR, I don't understand why we are clamoring for DC. Is it just to get 2 extra democratic senators?

[El Guapo]

Really, all I want out of a Biden presidency is federal voting rights legislation. If we get that, it will go a long way to helping us avoid this mess in the future.

Also, statehood for DC, and for PR if they want it.

While I understand PR, I don't understand why we are clamoring for DC. Is it just to get 2 extra democratic senators?

First because it's fundamentally unfair that residents of DC (which outnumber residents of Vermont and Wyoming) do not get any political representation in the government. And second yes, for the two extra Democratic senators - it's really the only short term patch I can see available to help address the issue that the Senate is tilted in favor of the more conservative rural areas of the country.

[malchior]

Also, the DC demonstrations highlighted that there was a gap between the DC police and the government that allowed Federal 'troops' to pull bullshit shenanigans like the St. John's bible shoot.

[El Guapo]

Also, the DC demonstrations highlighted that there was a gap between the DC police and the government that allowed Federal 'troops' to pull bullshit shenanigans like the St. John's bible shoot.

Also Congress (mainly Republicans) have gotten really shameless about intruding into DC domestic affairs that don't really pertain to the federal government (e.g., undoing the marijuana legalization).

[Zaxxon]

[Defiant]

[Unagi]

Also, the DC demonstrations highlighted that there was a gap between the DC police and the government that allowed Federal 'troops' to pull bullshit shenanigans like the St. John's bible shoot.

This. And the amount of people without representation.

[El Guapo]

The only bright spot now is that the "tipping point" states that decide the electoral college majority (right now probably PA and FL) are 2 - 3 points better for Trump than the national polls. Which means that he still probably has a inherent edge from the electoral college. So he doesn't need to close the full gap, he 'just' needs to get within a few points (just like 2016) to be competitive. And maybe you give him another couple points to roughly account for voter suppression and the like.

It's still a significant deficit, but in terms of winning the presidency it's at least somewhat less than the full amount.

[Unagi]

I thought of a nice, sarcastic Trump 2020 Campaign slogan, that I don’t think I’ve seen before.



Trump / 2020
Isn’t This Great !?

[Octavious]

I just don't get his strategy at all with Florida and Arizona. If people start dropping like flies the chances of him winning those states drop a ton. And so far that looks like that's what is going to happen over the next month.

[raydude]

I just don't get his strategy at all with Florida and Arizona. If people start dropping like flies the chances of him winning those states drop a ton. And so far that looks like that's what is going to happen over the next month.

His strategy is to go with his gut. And right now his gut is thinking it needs more hamberders.

[El Guapo]

I'm also kind of shocked by how large the Democrats lead (Mark Kelly's lead) in the AZ senate race. I know Arizona has been trending Democratic lately, but Sinema barely won in 2018, and it's still fairly Republican overall. I was thinking Democrats would be a slight favorite in that race, but wasn't expecting Kelly to be up 9+.

[El Guapo]

[Octavious]

Trump reminds me a lot of my FIL. People like that can scam people for like 3-4 years and then it blows up in their face and they move onto a new scam. There's no flipping way he pulls this out imho. People are sick of his shit AND actually getting sick.

[Isgrimnur]

I just don't get his strategy at all with Florida and Arizona. If people start dropping like flies the chances of him winning those states drop a ton. And so far that looks like that's what is going to happen over the next month.

His strategy is to go with his gut. And right now his gut is thinking it needs more hamberders.

[LordMortis]

I just don't get his strategy at all with Florida and Arizona. If people start dropping like flies the chances of him winning those states drop a ton. And so far that looks like that's what is going to happen over the next month.

His strategy is to go with his gut. And right now his gut is thinking it needs more hamberders.

If they don't drop like flies, even as numbers increase, he declares victory. If people do drop like flies then the states screwed it up and somehow democrats prevented the right response. The response of the moment that Trump's instinctive foresight had been pushing for since the CHINESE virus ever came to the US. Oh and by the way, it's coming from Mexico. Wall! Illegals clogging the medical system and stealing your benefits!

[Octavious]

It's going to be really hard to blame the dems for Florida. I'm sure they will try, but I don't see that gaining much traction. I found out that there's a big Trump boat rally in the lake by my house this weekend. I don't get these people.

[Smoove_B]

I found out that there's a big Trump boat rally in the lake by my house this weekend. I don't get these people.

There's also going to be a anti-Trump rally in the lake. All I can say is that I hope someone is taking video.

[malchior]

I found out that there's a big Trump boat rally in the lake by my house this weekend. I don't get these people.

There's also going to be a anti-Trump rally in the lake. All I can say is that I hope someone is taking video.

A good time for return of the Hopatconda.

[LordMortis]

It's going to be really hard to blame the dems for Florida. I'm sure they will try, but I don't see that gaining much traction. I found out that there's a big Trump boat rally in the lake by my house this weekend. I don't get these people.

The Democratic controlled House prevented Mike Pence from doing his job. CDC and WHO gave us lies and prevented us from responding with current claim which I claim I claimed all along Democrats left Florida hanging out to dry. Resources were diverted by corrupt politicians... Fake media... a very nasty person/question... end response.

The playbook hasn't changed since Puerto Rico.

[Octavious]

Ya but the playbook isn't working like it used to. Only the morons are hanging on at this point.

[Vorret]

Ya but the playbook isn't working like it used to. Only the morons are hanging on at this point.

but morons vote too

[Pyperkub]

Per 538... as of today, it will come down to the land of the hanging chads again...

Right now, according to our polling averages, Florida would be the “tipping point” state of the election — the state that will give a candidate his 270th electoral vote. (In other words, if Biden wins every state above Florida in the table, and Trump wins every state below Florida, both would still be short of 270 electoral votes. So whoever won Florida would win the election.) Biden currently leads by 7.4 points in Florida, according to our polling average there, which is 2.3 points less than his national lead. That means Trump could win the state — and therefore, the way things are set up right now, the Electoral College — even if Biden still leads the national average by up to 2.3 points on Election Day. That said, it’s still early in the campaign, and the tipping point state will likely continue to shuffle around (for example, Minnesota was the tipping-point state last week).

For now, though, it’s notable that the Midwestern swing states — namely, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are still a bit more Democratic-leaning than the emerging swing states in the Sun Belt, like Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas. That’s a similar story to 2016, when the election was decided in the Midwest.

I really, really don't want a 2000 Florida repeat. Given Trump, that could well set off armed insurrection in areas.

[Holman]

It's very likely that the election will be undetermined on November 4, and we might wake up on Nov 4 with the numbers temporarily in Trump's favor (but with the expectation that mail-ins will tip over significantly towards Biden).

The nightmare scenario is that every QAnon lunatic and MAGA commando then descends on wherever votes are counted, attempting to disrupt the continuation of the election. Some of them will succeed. There will be chaos. Mailed-in votes could be spoiled or physically stolen or otherwise invalidated.

[YellowKing]

I don't think the election's going to be anywhere close, and Trump will have absolutely no grounds to contest the election.

I'm calling it right now - Biden wins in a landslide, Trump steps down (albeit not before trashing the place as he leaves). Americans breathe a sigh of relief.

[malchior]

I don't think the election's going to be anywhere close, and Trump will have absolutely no grounds to contest the election.

I'm calling it right now - Biden wins in a landslide, Trump steps down (albeit not before trashing the place as he leaves). Americans breathe a sigh of relief.

I hope you're right. I believe it is way too early, too much change is in the air, and too many shenanigans await to make any sort of prediction about outcome. It is likely just safe to predict it will be a shit show.

Edit: Also I'll note that Biden made a speech today that essentially got no live media coverage but Trump's Tulsa rally? Wall-to-wall coverage. It embarassed him but it still highlights it is open mic night on major media for Trump. Just like 2016.

[Pyperkub]

I don't think the election's going to be anywhere close, and Trump will have absolutely no grounds to contest the election.

I'm calling it right now - Biden wins in a landslide, Trump steps down (albeit not before trashing the place as he leaves). Americans breathe a sigh of relief.

I hope you're right. I believe it is way too early, too much change is in the air, and too many shenanigans await to make any sort of prediction about outcome. It is likely just safe to predict it will be a shit show.

Yeah, it is way too early. Trump/GOP/Dark Money/Foreign influence smear campaigns against Biden haven't even begun yet. Think Swift-Boat Veterans for (Fox News) Truth. Think Willie Horton. Think Authoritarian Gov't whisper/smear campaigns. Think Soros is paying illegal immigrants to vote campaigns.

On the other hand, the longer they wait to get the smear/hate/lies campaigns in full swing, the less time they will have to fester. It may have taken over 25 years of such campaigns to torpedo Hillary. 6 months may not make a dent, though I live in CA, and I doubt those campaigns would play here too much.

[malchior]

Biden does have baggage but some of it is quaint by current standards. Remember his plagiarism issues? Those are basic ethics issues that don't even register on the radar anymore but derailed him long ago. His contemporary Tara Reade problem plays out many magnitudes worse for Trump so Trump can't even play the card. It'll come back to dirty tricks and I suspect it is too early to spring any of them yet.

[El Guapo]

It's very likely that the election will be undetermined on November 4, and we might wake up on Nov 4 with the numbers temporarily in Trump's favor (but with the expectation that mail-ins will tip over significantly towards Biden).

The nightmare scenario is that every QAnon lunatic and MAGA commando then descends on wherever votes are counted, attempting to disrupt the continuation of the election. Some of them will succeed. There will be chaos. Mailed-in votes could be spoiled or physically stolen or otherwise invalidated.

That's possible, but FWIW what I've read is that there's no indication that mail in voting favors either party, so there's no reason why we should expect in person voting to tilt Trump vs. mail in ballots.

That is, however, setting aside the possibility of state GOP shenanigans in favor of Trump, though a lot of what I've been worried about is making it easier for Trump areas to vote and harder for Democratic areas to vote, and a lot of those (sending more ballots to Republican areas than to Democratic ones) would tend to cause mail in votes to disproportionately favor Trump.

However, if Biden's margin stays about as large as it is in polls now, it's going to be hard to put together enough plausible shenanigans to give Trump and electoral college majority.

[Holman]

That's possible, but FWIW what I've read is that there's no indication that mail in voting favors either party, so there's no reason why we should expect in person voting to tilt Trump vs. mail in ballots.

That's true in the past, but is it true this year?

I just read that Dems have a 302,000 voter advantage in vote-by-mail enrollment in Florida. In 2016 that number was under 8,800.

[LordMortis]

That's possible, but FWIW what I've read is that there's no indication that mail in voting favors either party, so there's no reason why we should expect in person voting to tilt Trump vs. mail in ballots.

That's true in the past, but is it true this year?

I just read that Dems have a 302,000 voter advantage in vote-by-mail enrollment in Florida. In 2016 that number was under 8,800.

We've never had it in MI widely available before. The GOP fought it at every level and in court several times by mostly the same groups that fought against elected officials choosing their voters. This suggests to me the effort was an effort to maintain power. But we have no history to compare it to. Absentee voting until this year was reserved for the military, the elderly, and out of state business person who applied for privilege.

[Holman]

We've never had it in MI widely available before. The GOP fought it at every level and in court several times by mostly the same groups that fought against elected officials choosing their voters. This suggests to me the effort was an effort to maintain power. But we have no history to compare it to. Absentee voting until this year was reserved for the military, the elderly, and out of state business person who applied for privilege.

Trump and the GOP hate mail-in voting because an in-person voting requirement discourages people with two jobs, irregular schedules, outside childcare, etc.

Their argument, of course, is that real citizens can overcome all of those obstacles because their nanny can cover the waiting time.

[Defiant]

I would think that in-person voting would skew younger (given the pandemic), which probably would skew Biden (if we see a similar pattern of older people being more likely to vote for Trump than younger voters). Of course, if Biden wins by a landslide, he'll probably win both the in-person and mail-in vote.

[El Guapo]

That's possible, but FWIW what I've read is that there's no indication that mail in voting favors either party, so there's no reason why we should expect in person voting to tilt Trump vs. mail in ballots.

That's true in the past, but is it true this year?

I just read that Dems have a 302,000 voter advantage in vote-by-mail enrollment in Florida. In 2016 that number was under 8,800.

It could be different this year - this is certainly an unusual year. That Florida number could also be one reflection of greater Democratic enthusiasm. I'm just saying what the history is, and so the priors going in would likely be that mail in voting by itself shouldn't shift the race too much.

[malchior]

Some pundits such as Carville and Scarborough are openly wondering if Trump will leave the race rather than face defeat. I'm skeptical but what I'm fascinated by is the notion that again that is rising that some think that Trump doesnt want to win.

No. No. No. What is obvious now is that he is not some political genius. He blundered into the Presidency. He hasn't shown any capacity to learn on the job. He is running the same campaign. He is a fucking moron. There is no genius here. He is the embodiment of a failed state come to life.

We will see what happens but what we can be sure is that maybe he will go the path of LBJ but the other possibility is that he smashes his way put of the box in desperation. Dangerous times. And all to get back to regular dysfunction potentially if the Senate holds.

[hepcat]

I don't think he intended to win the first time around. I truly believe it was a negotiating tactic on his part to force the network to meet his demands for a show that wasn't doing as hot in the ratings that it used to. When he realized he had a chance, I think his ego took over (not that it's ever far from the driver's seat, mind you) and he went all in.

Now, I could see him dropping him out if it looked like he had no chance so he could say in public "I didn't lose! I chose to leave!", but as long as he thinks he does have a chance, his ego won't let him drop out.

Trump is mostly ego with the rest being id...iot.

[El Guapo]

I don't think he intended to win the first time around. I truly believe it was a negotiating tactic on his part to force the network to meet his demands for a show that wasn't doing as hot in the ratings that it used to. When he realized he had a chance, I think his ego took over (not that it's ever far from the driver's seat, mind you) and he went all in.

Now, I could see him dropping him out if it looked like he had no chance so he could say in public "I didn't lose! I chose to leave!", but as long as he thinks he does have a chance, his ego won't let him drop out.

Trump is mostly ego with the rest being id...iot.

He'd never drop out. He's no doubt making a ton of money off the presidency, plus his ego, PLUS he has a reasonable chance of winding up in prison after he leaves the presidency. The scary part is that the last part gives him a really powerful incentive to cheat and to try to refuse to leave even if he loses.

[LordMortis]

He'd never drop out. He's no doubt making a ton of money off the presidency, plus his ego, PLUS he has a reasonable chance of winding up in prison after he leaves the presidency. The scary part is that the last part gives him a really powerful incentive to cheat and to try to refuse to leave even if he loses.

Win or lose he'll still have leverage and a following in the GOP.





If he walked away that would disappear. I see it much more likely that if he loses he protests the loss and keeps his weaponized base and revenue stream. I also don't believe there is 0% chance that he cheats.

[hepcat]

He'd never drop out. He's no doubt making a ton of money off the presidency, plus his ego, PLUS he has a reasonable chance of winding up in prison after he leaves the presidency. The scary part is that the last part gives him a really powerful incentive to cheat and to try to refuse to leave even if he loses.

I don't think he'd end up in prison after leaving office. Do you think something will come out of the SDNY investigations? Or something else?