Presidential Election Prediction Thread

[Meghan]

I'm going to crib electoralvote.com's numbers since I'm too tired to do the math.

Kerry 306
Bush 218

I think it will look like that although the numbers might not be exact.

Off to cast my ballot (or drink the blood of the Pubbie challenger if he tries to get in my way. Either way, I'm a winner!)

[Poleaxe]

Itr pains me, but:

Kerry 275
Bush 263

[Eco-Logic]

I'm going to crib electoralvote.com's numbers since I'm too tired to do the math.

Kerry 306
Bush 218

I think it will look like that although the numbers might not be exact.

Off to cast my ballot (or drink the blood of the Pubbie challenger if he tries to get in my way. Either way, I'm a winner!)

You think?

[msduncan]

Kerry 298
Bush 240

MSDuncan, if you seriously can say with a straight face you won't gloat if Bush wins, then I wholeheartedly support the sentiment of your post.

I do promise you that I will not gloat at all.

I think everyone knows me well enough to believe me if I make that promise. I realize that if my man somehow pulls this thing out, I'll absolutely empathize with the other side being extremely disappointed and upset at the outcome. I'll conduct myself accordingly. Believe me, being an Alabama fan with Auburn friends-- I've learned the art of good sportsmanship.

[Eco-Logic]

I will gloat though.

Just as I gloat when Tennessee beats Alabama.

[msduncan]

The final Zogby predictions are in:

264 Kerry
247 Bush
Florida exact tie -- (27 electoral votes)

Zogby gives Hawaii to Kerry, Ohio to Bush, Wisconsin and Minnesota to Kerry....

And it all comes down to Florida again.

[msduncan]

I will gloat though.

Just as I gloat when Tennessee beats Alabama.

Ouch. We should have beaten you this year. If we'd have had Brodie, we'd have won.

[CeeKay]

I will gloat though.

Just as I gloat when Tennessee beats Alabama.

So will I

[Eco-Logic]

I will gloat though.

Just as I gloat when Tennessee beats Alabama.

So will I

Nah that just makes you look ignorant.


And I won't actually gloat, I was joking with msduncan the Bama fan. You are right, you all should have beaten us. I don't know how we keep winning actually. We'll probably win out and get slaughtered by Auburn in the SEC Championship.

I don't feel like working today. I have butterflies in my stomach and am really concerned about tonight. I think Bush can pull it off though.

[CSL]

I will gloat though.

Really? I hadn't expected you too.

[Eco-Logic]

I will gloat though.

Really? I hadn't expected you too.

ooo, I can do that too,

I'm not going to gloat.

[YellowKing]

And it all comes down to Florida again.

I'd quite honestly rather see Kerry beat Bush by a 100-electoral vote margin than to go through another Florida fiasco.

A house divided against itself cannot stand. As we bicker and decide our elections in court, our enemies grow stronger, our nation grows weaker, and the world laughs at us.

I shudder to think that our country's ability to survive is probably going to be decided by a bunch of retired asshole Floridians. (Lest I offend any Floridians, my aunt's from Florida. Her state still fucking SUCKS!)

[Dirt]

Kerry. It's going to be Kerry. And in another 4 years, as long as it's not Jeb, I'm voting Republican.

[Debris]

And it all comes down to Florida again.

I shudder to think that our country's ability to survive is probably going to be decided by a bunch of retired asshole Floridians. (Lest I offend any Floridians, my aunt's from Florida. Her state still fucking SUCKS!)

I wouldn't say the state of Florida sucks as a whole, since I actually love where I live. I just can't stand all the retired Northerners who seem to fuck everything up when they move down here.

[Dirt]

Tampa is certainly one of the armpits of America. I was there a few years ago and I think the only reason there was anyone out at night was because of the Super Bowl.

[LordMortis]

I'm very cursious to see how Ohio votes. You guys really think they are going to Bush? I figure Ohio really does decide this election, though I am completely out of the know. I figured Ohio is a production state and Bush has done a damned fine job of exacerbating the hand cuffing US production and that would give Ohio to Kerry and therefore the election. I really can't tell though. I still think that should Kerry lose, it will have been his own fault, though. This election was so his for the taking. How can you have such a large staff and pool of volunteers, have beat a set of guys who seemed clearly more electable than you, and still stink this up as bad as he did?

[msduncan]

I'm very cursious to see how Ohio votes. You guys really think they are going to Bush? I figure Ohio really does decide this election, though I am completely out of the know. I figured Ohio is a production state and Bush has done a damned fine job of exacerbating the hand cuffing US production and that would give Ohio to Kerry and therefore the election. I really can't tell though. I still think that should Kerry lose, it will have been his own fault, though. This election was so his for the taking. How can you have such a large staff and pool of volunteers, have beat a set of guys who seemed clearly more electable than you, and still stink this up as bad as he did?

This is utterly unscientific, but I am a member of a clan for America's Army. All the guys live in Ohio, and they all work for either manufacturing plants (automobile) or chemical supply plants. Recently some of them even lost their jobs due to a plant closing.

All except 1 is voting for Bush. The one that's not isn't voting at all. I actually found it VERY suprising since they are union, and in the manufacturing business....

Of course that's just that small group...so who knows?

[Eco-Logic]

We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime.”

The quote above is from Mark Mellman. Mark is a Democratic pollster. And he’s very partisan. And he’s been working for Kerry this year.

But Mark is no fool and he has a reputation to maintain.

He explains his reasoning at some length in a column in The Hill this morning. He predicts that Bush will get 51.6% of the two-party vote.

By contrast, Jay Cost is predicting Bush will get less than that: 48.63% to Kerry’s 46.24%.

from powerline.com

Here is the article by Mark Mellman:

http://www.thehill.com/mellman/110204.aspx

The uphill fight is impossible to predict now

You, dear reader, have the advantage over me. I am writing this Sunday, before the election takes place. The opportunities for me to look foolish are legion. So I will resist both predictions and triumphalism.

For months, though, I’ve been assessing President Bush’s vulnerability, but win or lose, it is important to acknowledge the daunting challenge Sen. John Kerry faces.
Republicans have been spinning this fact for months and they are right.

First, we simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and they are correct.

Democrats have spoken often and powerfully about the nation’s economic problems. But by historical standards, they are not that bad. The “misery index” is 7.8 today but was 20.5 when Jimmy Carter was defeated. Economic models of elections show Bush winning 52-58 percent of the vote.

One could simply suggest that the models are off, but there is more to it than that.

These models essentially confirm that the level of economic pain we are now feeling is not commensurate with voting an incumbent president out of office.

Unemployment and inflation are lower than they have been when incumbents have been defeated. Growth is higher than it has been when presidents have been tossed out of office.

The war in Iraq is obviously hurting Bush, but some of these models also incorporate casualty figures as a proxy for war. These models tend to suggest that Bush should win by a large margin. Nearly 50,000 killed in Vietnam did not prevent Nixon’s reelection.

Bush’s approval ratings are also indicative of the difficulties Kerry faces. It is certainly true that the average incumbent who has been reelected has had a much higher job approval rating — 62 percent. Bush’s approval rating is now about 49 percent. Yet the last time an incumbent was beaten — Bush’s father — just 33 percent approved of his performance. When Carter was defeated, he had an approval rating of only 37 percent. On average, incumbents who have been defeated have only had a 38 percent job rating. Bush is 10 points higher than that.

We often point to the fact that a majority of Americans say the country is seriously off on the wrong track. Fifty-two percent hold that view. But when Bush Sr. was defeated, 72 percent thought the country was seriously off on the wrong track.

Only 39 percent give the economy a positive rating, a problem for the incumbent.

Yet in 1992, only about 10 percent were positive about the economy.

Taking all that and more into account, an expert forecasting model suggests that Bush will get 51.6 percent of the two-party vote.

So while Bush faces formidable obstacles, not the least of which is Kerry himself, the senator also faces a strong candidate. Bush is weaker than some other incumbents but much stronger than those who have been defeated.

You soon will know whether Kerry’s appeal was strong enough to overcome the incumbent’s strength. I think I will be smiling broadly. But it has been an uphill fight.

Interesting

[Enough]

We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime.”

The quote above is from Mark Mellman. Mark is a Democratic pollster. And he’s very partisan. And he’s been working for Kerry this year.

But Mark is no fool and he has a reputation to maintain.

He explains his reasoning at some length in a column in The Hill this morning. He predicts that Bush will get 51.6% of the two-party vote.

By contrast, Jay Cost is predicting Bush will get less than that: 48.63% to Kerry’s 46.24%.

from powerline.com

Interesting

Interesting post. I think being war time is one of the two potential major drivers of this election. It should be Bush's election to lose, the fact it's so close shows what a weak candidate he is. The other potential driver is of course all the new voter registrations and if the Dems can mobilize all these new voters (if they are "real voters" that is lol). I still see it going either way, but if forced to predict it I am still edging Kerry with 281 electoral votes.

[LawBeefaroni]

It's all about the Redskins. This election was decided Sunday.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

It's not about the Redskins; it's about the burritos!

[LawBeefaroni]

Right idea, wrong burrito

[Defiant]

.

[Eel Snave]

My election prediction. Gets pretty detailed, going into how I calculated what states will go where.

The abstract: Bush takes the popular vote, 49.3% to 48.9%. Kerry takes the Electoral College 286 to 252.[/url]

Irony at it's finest.

[The Mad Hatter]

Bush 52%

Kerry 47.5%



Bush 286

Kerry 252

Did no one salute Eco Logic for his accuracy here? He got the electoral vote breakdown exactly right and was only slightly off in the popular vote (51% to 48% is CNN's breakdown). Kudos.

[SuperHiro]

My god, he was 100% PRECISE AND ACCURATE.

BRAVO.

[Defiant]

Well, maybe not 100% accurate:

Those who thought the presidential election was held Nov. 2 are wrong. That day's vote was to pick the people who voted this week - the 538 members of the Electoral College. They voted 286 for Bush and 251 for Sen. John Kerry. One "faithless" Democratic elector in Minnesota cast his ballot for John Edwards, the Democrats' vice presidential nominee, instead of Kerry.

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/viewp ... lcol.shtml

(Hmm, what happened to the West Virginia Elector who said he wouldn't vote for Bush?)

[Dirt]

It will be interesting to see if Cheney is going to be the next President.

[The Preacher]

It will be interesting to see if Cheney is going to be the next President.

Not it won't, unless you're implying Bush dies in office. Because Cheney will never run for President.