Octopus Overlords

Grundbegriff wrote:It's so funny that people demand explanations. If I did know something, then that would mean I'm either an Assassin or an ISIS Special. If either were true, why would I say? And if I didn't know something but simply had a hunch, how would that be different from what anyone else (not in the previously-mentioned groups) does?

I watched Moliere and developed a strong hunch that he was something. Those who have been around the werewolf block know that the spidey-sense tingles in response to lycanthropy or specialness in much the same way.

I would've stuck with Moliere despite his claim if a contesting Cheryl had arisen. But instead, it's either the case that Cheryl is dead or the case that Moliere is indeed Cheryl. As I have already remarked, faking Cheryl would be an adequate move but not an amazing one. So odds favor Moliere's Cherylitude.

When faced with new facts, I re-calibrate my analysis and act accordingly. What do you do?

Explanations add information for the village. People can find them persuasive or not, helping to inform their votes. Probably more importantly, it gives us information to mine later - e.g., "Grund said X on day 2, Y on day 3, and they don't quite gel." Moreover, wolves (unlike villagers) have to essentially fake analysis - they know who is a wolf and who is not, so they have to cook up some reason for their vote, and sometimes they don't do a great job and come across as fake, or as trying to seem insightful without actually being so.

On top of that, I often find that I'll start with an intuition, start to type up an explanation, and find as I am doing so that my intuition isn't standing up so well to actual analysis. So there's that too.

El Guapo wrote:Explanations add information for the village. People can find them persuasive or not, helping to inform their votes. Probably more importantly, it gives us information to mine later -

How often does going back to see what Bubba said actually prove decisive? Or even helpful? The problem is that there's no way to tell whether the person engaged in that sort of archeology has sincere motives.

People say a lot of things. What matters vastly more is what they do.

Moreover, wolves (unlike villagers) have to essentially fake analysis - they know who is a wolf and who is not, so they have to cook up some reason for their vote, and sometimes they don't do a great job and come across as fake, or as trying to seem insightful without actually being so.

One countermeasure is to perform genuine analysis but limit the damage that inferences thus drawn cause. Or so I hear.

On top of that, I often find that I'll start with an intuition, start to type up an explanation, and find as I am doing so that my intuition isn't standing up so well to actual analysis. So there's that too.

Yep. Sometimes, in the face of dim intuitions, we just have to pulse the blender a bit and see what happens.

Grundbegriff wrote:

El Guapo wrote:Moreover, wolves (unlike villagers) have to essentially fake analysis - they know who is a wolf and who is not, so they have to cook up some reason for their vote, and sometimes they don't do a great job and come across as fake, or as trying to seem insightful without actually being so.

One countermeasure is to perform genuine analysis but limit the damage that inferences thus drawn cause. Or so I hear.

Like El Guapo's analysis of you?

Grundbegriff wrote:

El Guapo wrote:Explanations add information for the village. People can find them persuasive or not, helping to inform their votes. Probably more importantly, it gives us information to mine later -

How often does going back to see what Bubba said actually prove decisive? Or even helpful? The problem is that there's no way to tell whether the person engaged in that sort of archeology has sincere motives.

People say a lot of things. What matters vastly more is what they do.

Whew... reading this it doesn't sound like you are having much of a good time. I thought the fun of these games is deconstructing actions AND words of others.

I started out by going full silent. Then decided to "shake things up" by placing a vote and declaring it was for the good of all. Then followed that up by not providing any other rationale. After that vote and explanation provided to possibly out a special you meekly pulled up your flag and sauntered off. When questioned you when full Douglas Horton on us.



Now, I kind of just enjoyed going over your actions AND words just now and trying to judge "is this a sincere ISIS Grund" or "is this a Assassin Grund trying to twist out of the spotlight". I still don't know the answer but I'm dying to find out.

Hey guys.... I had hoped that you would back down on this bad vote...

Can we take the votes off me, I am a special.

RMC wrote:Hey guys.... I had hoped that you would back down on this bad vote...

Can we take the votes off me, I am a special.

Did we save our day 1 screwups for day 2?

A little leery that we have apparently hit 2 specials in a row today. We didn't pressure Moliere too much on it. Now RMC just states he's special.

To be safe I will withdraw for now:  withdraw RMC 
 

Vote Tally:

(1) Moliere: RMC
(4) RMC: bb2112, Triggercut, Grundbegriff, Vorret
(3) Grundbegriff: Moliere, Scoop, Remus West

Not voting: El Guapo, Lassr

Majority is 6

Lassr wrote:We didn't pressure Moliere too much on it.

I was at n-1. How long should I have waited?

So now's the part where we do our increasingly traditional dance about which special RMC is claiming? At least I can copy-paste the reasons why it's a good idea instead of writing them out again.

El Guapo wrote:So now's the part where we do our increasingly traditional dance about which special RMC is claiming? At least I can copy-paste the reasons why it's a good idea instead of writing them out again.

Maybe he claimed special but they need to do a caucus in the wolf forum to make sure he spoof the right role.

Meh

Moliere wrote:

Lassr wrote:We didn't pressure Moliere too much on it.

I was at n-1. How long should I have waited?

No, I mean you just said your death would help the assassins and no one seemed to bat an eye and accepted it, so I wonder if RMC saw how easy it was for you to get away with so little info and he is trying it also or maybe we did actually out two specials in a row, it would not be the first time.

Well, that's true. Moliere was very suggestive about his role so I would expect if someone would counter then they would.

Do we want to trust RMC is being honest so we give him a chance to do something during the night?

I can't believe I am saying this but I think it would he hood to see if he survives the night.


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 Withdraw RMC 
 

A couple of questions:

1. Is Cheryl the only special who gives the assassins a bonus on death?

2. Would Cheryl even out herself at this point to hang Moliere?

I mean, think about it. If you're an assassin and condition #1 applies and Cheryl is the only special who gives them a bonus, would they not be willing to trade one of their own to have Cheryl come forward and give them a free scan in trade for whatever Moliere is? I mean, maybe, right? Especially if it looks like Moliere is going to be today's execution, right?

Just seems really weird to me that Cheryl would say she was alive and announce it to the group like this, or in this manner. Moliere could just say "I'm a special" like RMC did, and that's that. If Moliere says he's Cheryl, he's pretty much signed up for tomorrow's execution by pretend revealing herself and then surviving the night.

I think he's full of beans. He's on team bad and trolling for folks to out themselves.

If you're one of our specials, don't do that!

 Moliere 
 


With prejudice, btw.

Vote Tally:

(2) Moliere: RMC, Triggercut
(3) RMC: bb2112, Grundbegriff, Vorret
(3) Grundbegriff: Moliere, Scoop, Remus West

Not voting: El Guapo, Lassr

Majority is 6

[Incidentally, at 5:00 a.m. tomorrow I'm off to attend a heavily-scheduled wedding weekend on the other side of the country. I'm unlikely to have much internet access Friday-Sunday.

Apologies for the inconvenience. I know weekends are slow, but if you all do come to a decision and I seem to be AWOL, that's why.]

triggercut wrote:A couple of questions:

1. Is Cheryl the only special who gives the assassins a bonus on death?

2. Would Cheryl even out herself at this point to hang Moliere?

I mean, think about it. If you're an assassin and condition #1 applies and Cheryl is the only special who gives them a bonus, would they not be willing to trade one of their own to have Cheryl come forward and give them a free scan in trade for whatever Moliere is? I mean, maybe, right? Especially if it looks like Moliere is going to be today's execution, right?

Just seems really weird to me that Cheryl would say she was alive and announce it to the group like this, or in this manner. Moliere could just say "I'm a special" like RMC did, and that's that. If Moliere says he's Cheryl, he's pretty much signed up for tomorrow's execution by pretend revealing herself and then surviving the night.

I think he's full of beans. He's on team bad and trolling for folks to out themselves.

If you're one of our specials, don't do that!

 Moliere 
 


With prejudice, btw.

THink it explains why RMC stayed on Moliere?

 wd RMC 
 


 Moliere 
 


Let's put some pressure up on this baby

I mean, either Cheryl is dead and they somehow figured out (or made a really good, sorta desperate guess) they got her, or she's alive and still cloaked....

...But if Moliere is Cheryl, that's a horrid misplay of that role, I'd think.

With Katya still lurking and likely still holding her power to ignore Lana, there's no way to protect Cheryl so she's going to die anyway; it's sticking a big target on your forehead. Moliere saying specifically that he *is* Cheryl is just a baddie trying to out as many ISIS specials as he can.

He's guilty.

El Guapo wrote: HOWEVER, I just realized that they could know, insofar as any of the deceased so far could have been Cheryl, in which case they would know that Cheryl is dead, and would also know the role of another villager.

So, if the wolves got lucky and hit Cheryl already, then they would know that they could claim Cheryl with no risk of getting disputed.

Also just saw this. This is how Moliere would know that it's safe to claim to be Cheryl.

Vorret wrote: wd RMC 
 


 Moliere 
 


Let's put some pressure up on this baby

I am confused about the notion of "putting pressure" on Moliere. He's already claimed a role, so regardless of whether he's a wolf, he can't now change his claim, nor could he offer more information.

This is weird.

triggercut wrote:

El Guapo wrote: HOWEVER, I just realized that they could know, insofar as any of the deceased so far could have been Cheryl, in which case they would know that Cheryl is dead, and would also know the role of another villager.

So, if the wolves got lucky and hit Cheryl already, then they would know that they could claim Cheryl with no risk of getting disputed.

Also just saw this. This is how Moliere would know that it's safe to claim to be Cheryl.

Excellent sleuthing!!!

 accuse moliere 
 



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El Guapo wrote:

Vorret wrote: wd RMC 
 


 Moliere 
 


Let's put some pressure up on this baby

I am confused about the notion of "putting pressure" on Moliere. He's already claimed a role, so regardless of whether he's a wolf, he can't now change his claim, nor could he offer more information.

This is weird.

Not on moliere, on the vote

triggercut wrote:I mean, either Cheryl is dead and they somehow figured out (or made a really good, sorta desperate guess) they got her, or she's alive and still cloaked....

...But if Moliere is Cheryl, that's a horrid misplay of that role, I'd think.

With Katya still lurking and likely still holding her power to ignore Lana, there's no way to protect Cheryl so she's going to die anyway; it's sticking a big target on your forehead. Moliere saying specifically that he *is* Cheryl is just a baddie trying to out as many ISIS specials as he can.

He's guilty.

You're over thinking it. I hinted at my Special role to avoid the RMC scenario of people wondering whether to believe him and what role he might have. I figure it's better to die tonight or tomorrow then to have the village lynch another innocent today. Cheryl's role says "If you are eliminated". Does this mean either lynched or killed at night?

Vote Tally:

(4) Moliere: RMC, Triggercut, Vorret, Scoop
(2) RMC: bb2112, Grundbegriff
(2) Grundbegriff: Moliere, Remus West

Not voting: El Guapo, Lassr

Majority is 6

Moliere wrote:

triggercut wrote:I mean, either Cheryl is dead and they somehow figured out (or made a really good, sorta desperate guess) they got her, or she's alive and still cloaked....

...But if Moliere is Cheryl, that's a horrid misplay of that role, I'd think.

With Katya still lurking and likely still holding her power to ignore Lana, there's no way to protect Cheryl so she's going to die anyway; it's sticking a big target on your forehead. Moliere saying specifically that he *is* Cheryl is just a baddie trying to out as many ISIS specials as he can.

He's guilty.

You're over thinking it. I hinted at my Special role to avoid the RMC scenario of people wondering whether to believe him and what role he might have. I figure it's better to die tonight or tomorrow then to have the village lynch another innocent today. Cheryl's role says "If you are eliminated". Does this mean either lynched or killed at night?

Good one!

So why, Fake Cheryl, didn't you just say you were a special instead of picking for yourself the one role we can't verify you for in the open?

Your excuse is nonsense word salad that means nothing.

You aren't Cheryl.

You're Team Badguy.

Moliere wrote:Cheryl's role says "If you are eliminated". Does this mean either lynched or killed at night?

A day lynch, a night assassination, and Archer's rampage ability are all eliminations.

triggercut wrote:Your excuse is nonsense word salad that means nothing.

You aren't Cheryl.

You're Team Badguy.

And when I come back as Cheryl what will you do? Will you apologize profusely to my dead body and to the village that you have undermined? Will you self lynch for all the harm you have caused?

triggercut wrote:

Moliere wrote:

triggercut wrote:I mean, either Cheryl is dead and they somehow figured out (or made a really good, sorta desperate guess) they got her, or she's alive and still cloaked....

...But if Moliere is Cheryl, that's a horrid misplay of that role, I'd think.

With Katya still lurking and likely still holding her power to ignore Lana, there's no way to protect Cheryl so she's going to die anyway; it's sticking a big target on your forehead. Moliere saying specifically that he *is* Cheryl is just a baddie trying to out as many ISIS specials as he can.

He's guilty.

You're over thinking it. I hinted at my Special role to avoid the RMC scenario of people wondering whether to believe him and what role he might have. I figure it's better to die tonight or tomorrow then to have the village lynch another innocent today. Cheryl's role says "If you are eliminated". Does this mean either lynched or killed at night?

Good one!

So why, Fake Cheryl, didn't you just say you were a special instead of picking for yourself the one role we can't verify you for in the open?

Your excuse is nonsense word salad that means nothing.

You aren't Cheryl.

You're Team Badguy.

Sorry, I have been in Mexico this week with limited OO time. So if I have the gist of what you are saying, Moliere is a bad guy and not Cheryl, and would know to spoof Cheryl because he knows the real Cheryl is dead because the bad guys get notified of an active ISIS agent upon Cheryl's death. Therefore either CR or Unagi had to be Cheryl. Do I have this right?

triggercut wrote:...But if Moliere is Cheryl, that's a horrid misplay of that role, I'd think.

People do weird stuff sometimes-- especially under duress.

triggercut wrote:

El Guapo wrote: HOWEVER, I just realized that they could know, insofar as any of the deceased so far could have been Cheryl, in which case they would know that Cheryl is dead, and would also know the role of another villager.

So, if the wolves got lucky and hit Cheryl already, then they would know that they could claim Cheryl with no risk of getting disputed.

Also just saw this. This is how Moliere would know that it's safe to claim to be Cheryl.

Wait-- the Cheryl power is triggered if they "eliminate" her, not just if we hang her?

In that case, of course they could safely emulate Cheryl, provided they had previously offed her.

 Withdraw RMC 
 

 Moliere 
 

Vote Tally:

(5) Moliere: RMC, Triggercut, Vorret, Scoop, Grundbegriff
(1) RMC: bb2112
(2) Grundbegriff: Moliere, Remus West

Not voting: El Guapo, Lassr

Majority is 6

Moliere is at n-1.

Grundbegriff wrote:

triggercut wrote:

El Guapo wrote: HOWEVER, I just realized that they could know, insofar as any of the deceased so far could have been Cheryl, in which case they would know that Cheryl is dead, and would also know the role of another villager.

So, if the wolves got lucky and hit Cheryl already, then they would know that they could claim Cheryl with no risk of getting disputed.

Also just saw this. This is how Moliere would know that it's safe to claim to be Cheryl.

Wait-- the Cheryl power is triggered if they "eliminate" her, not just if we hang her?

In that case, of course they could safely emulate Cheryl, provided they had previously offed her.

hmmm, that is entirely possible, and no matters the odds I always come back to "remember Mara Jade"

Sigh. Where is Newcastle when we need him?


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Scoop20906 wrote:Sigh. Where is Newcastle when we need him?


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(fyi while Holman is gone, I will keep up in the thread and provide updated vote counts. I volunteered my services after seeing his attendance of a red wedding )

Why are we trying to lynch Moliere before anyone even bothers to ask RMC for more information?

Remus West wrote:Why are we trying to lynch Moliere before anyone even bothers to ask RMC for more information?

bb2112 wrote:

triggercut wrote:

Moliere wrote:

triggercut wrote:I mean, either Cheryl is dead and they somehow figured out (or made a really good, sorta desperate guess) they got her, or she's alive and still cloaked....

...But if Moliere is Cheryl, that's a horrid misplay of that role, I'd think.

With Katya still lurking and likely still holding her power to ignore Lana, there's no way to protect Cheryl so she's going to die anyway; it's sticking a big target on your forehead. Moliere saying specifically that he *is* Cheryl is just a baddie trying to out as many ISIS specials as he can.

He's guilty.

You're over thinking it. I hinted at my Special role to avoid the RMC scenario of people wondering whether to believe him and what role he might have. I figure it's better to die tonight or tomorrow then to have the village lynch another innocent today. Cheryl's role says "If you are eliminated". Does this mean either lynched or killed at night?

Good one!

So why, Fake Cheryl, didn't you just say you were a special instead of picking for yourself the one role we can't verify you for in the open?

Your excuse is nonsense word salad that means nothing.

You aren't Cheryl.

You're Team Badguy.

Sorry, I have been in Mexico this week with limited OO time. So if I have the gist of what you are saying, Moliere is a bad guy and not Cheryl, and would know to spoof Cheryl because he knows the real Cheryl is dead because the bad guys get notified of an active ISIS agent upon Cheryl's death. Therefore either CR or Unagi had to be Cheryl. Do I have this right?

That pretty much covers it. Except for my strong opinion that an actual Cheryl wouldn't reveal that specific identity to the group in that manner because of Katya's power. I think that's probably why whoever the real Cheryl was between Unagi or CR, they went down silently, trying to lay low.

Remus West wrote:Why are we trying to lynch Moliere before anyone even bothers to ask RMC for more information?

Why do you want him to de-cloak more fully, Katya?

OK, I'm out the door. I will have spotty internet access (if that) until Monday, actually. I apologize for the delay.

Good luck!