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Game Over - Team Zero (Brendan and Unagi) has won.

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Unagi
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Unagi »

Shakespeare wrote:...and Gloucester's show
Beguiles him as the mournful crocodile
With sorrow, snares relenting passengers;
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Re: Night 2 - Bubbles popped.

Post by Isgrimnur »

Unagi wrote:Ok, just curious as to why you scanned bubbles and not Semaj?
Isgrimnur wrote:
Austin wrote:
Lassr wrote:ok, so if I understand the rules then we just got Mutant 1. Bad guy, not infected, and didn't take one of us with him.
It is feasible that the splodie would forego aslopding to try and make things more difficult for the other evil team yes?
I'm slow...

Patient Zero would have shown as infected, as would the infected pet.

I doubt Mutant 2 would have foregone their asplodey power, but the rules do say "May" rather than "Will," so I guess it is possible. In either case, we got a Mutant.

I submitted the scan wanting to confirm who we got before trying to logic what the results would tell us. Once I got to the above point, I had already submitted the scan. If I had bothered to think about it, I would have let Bubbles lie and scanned semaj.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Chaosraven »

9. Isgrimnur - claims Nurse (claims that pr0ner was Doctor)

checked in, not contesting Doctor or Nurse
13. Unagi
6. Chaosraven
3. Theohall
12. Brendan
8. Newcastle

No reply yet
2. stessier
4. Austin
10. Remus West
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.

Sweet sweet meat come. -LordMortis
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Chaosraven »

Not sure how many misses we got left. We also have to factor in the exploding bad dude.
Worst case scenario is infection - 2 misses (as I noted earlier)
4 Infections + PZ = 5 potential infected now.
Lynch is 8, Kill is 7 tomorrow, with a possible 6th infected.

Mutant Win -
If we manage to lynch PZ, leaves us at 8, kill to 7
Bad Guys is 2 (M2 and IP)
Lynch to 6, kill to 5
Lynch to 4

2 Misses plus PZ
---------------------------
If we lynch M2, leaves us at 7.
PZ infects #6 and wins if we lynch uninfected.
Did we get a ruling on PZ and IP killing people if the Mutants are dead?

If we lynch PZ and M2
Miss today -8, kill to 7
lynch PZ to 6, kill to 5
lynch M2 to 3, IP kills to 2 and wins

Miss today and then lynch PZ and M2 is a loss unless M2 kills IP with 'splodie (only if we lynch M2 before PZ, as IP joins forces with M2 the other way)
-----------------

Yeah, we're in real trouble.
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.

Sweet sweet meat come. -LordMortis
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Unagi »

Chaos, correct me if/where I am wrong.

So, Chaos likes to cultivate a feeling of evil around his play when he gets a good and/or special role, from what he has said, in order to keep the wolves at bay.
Whether or not this leads to him being simply ignored as 'lynch bait' or scanned/killed is part of the risk/reward, I think.

Additionally, he'll point out with an evil chuckle, this allows him a little 'latitude' when he lands an evil role. :twisted:

The third, and perhaps best advantage is this leads to him being able to keep specials out of the wolves attention, when this tactic is invoked as a villager.

Personally I think it does generally earn him a scan eventually (by all sides, when applicable), while I think he tends to do this most when he is a villager, he basically does it all the time... hence cultivated

Right now, I'm a just little bewildered by his ramped up "I dare ya" stance.

Half tempted to take him up on the dare, but more - feel Theohall is sorta 'acting' through a lot of this (comes across that way to me), and he's basically my primary pick.

But then comes Newcastle.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Unagi »

Chaosraven wrote:Did we get a ruling on PZ and IP killing people if the Mutants are dead?
My understanding of Seans clarifications are that PZ will not ever be a 'killer'.
IP joins the Mutant Team when: it's only him and M2 left alive, or - it's only him alive.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Chaosraven »

Unagi wrote:Chaos, correct me if/where I am wrong.

So, Chaos likes to cultivate a feeling of evil around his play when he gets a good and/or special role, from what he has said, in order to keep the wolves at bay.
Whether or not this leads to him being simply ignored as 'lynch bait' or scanned/killed is part of the risk/reward, I think.

Additionally, he'll point out with an evil chuckle, this allows him a little 'latitude' when he lands an evil role. :twisted:

The third, and perhaps best advantage is this leads to him being able to keep specials out of the wolves attention, when this tactic is invoked as a villager.

Personally I think it does generally earn him a scan eventually (by all sides, when applicable), while I think he tends to do this most when he is a villager, he basically does it all the time... hence cultivated
Think of it as my own brand of "chaos"

Is he being quiet? Is he talking too much? Did he just claim to be X,Y,orZ? What does that code mean?

At this point, I think it important we look at Bubbles info and work from there. Who he voted for, pointed the finger at, and who he may have avoided.

If we can find M2 first, there is the chance that M2 will blow up PZ or IP.
If we find PZ first, then M2 and IP will most likely win.

Me?

I'm nobody important, my Dare is a miss. In the event I turn up as "infected" then you know the numbers for PZ win is lessened by 1.

Which is still good for the Village :twisted:

Now then, 2 things regarding the Masons.
(1) If nobody dies tonight, then Isgrimnur should have been protected, *and* that means:
Loses secondary Protector power if Patient Zero, Infected Pet, or Mutant 2, but remains a Mason.
MedTech1 is NOT PZ, IP, or M2
(2) If Medtech2 comes out and claims he'll shoot Player X, then one of two things will happen.
(a) Player X dies. Loses secondary Hunter power if Patient Zero or Mutant 2, but remains a Mason. Retains Hunter Power if Infected Pet. Cannot be PZ or M2
(b) Player Y dies... as above, cannot be PZ or M2, *but*
If Patient Zero has infected Med Tech 2, and Med Tech 2 attempts to use his once per game Hunter ability, Patient Zero is informed of the target, and may redirect the kill to a new target of his choice.
will be proven "infected"

All of the above is vital information.

Was there a note back there somewhere about what the Nurse sees regarding infections?

And finally...

As far as Isgrimnur Faking the Nurse.
Todays lynch will prove that one way or the other.

Assuming Austin, Remus, or stessier don't contest either Doctor or Nurse then both are dead or Isgrimnur is the Nurse and pr0ner was the Doctor.

If we get info from a lynch today while Isgrimnur lives, it is the latter.
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.

Sweet sweet meat come. -LordMortis
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Re: Night 2 - Bubbles popped.

Post by Unagi »

Isgrimnur wrote:I submitted the scan wanting to confirm who we got before trying to logic what the results would tell us. Once I got to the above point, I had already submitted the scan. If I had bothered to think about it, I would have let Bubbles lie and scanned semaj.
Yeah, it's a bummer - IMO, it seems a little odd.

I would think the clear priority was to find out what roles we were loosing - not the exact flavor of bad guy.

That being said, I'm sure the net effect of the info is true. The Dr is dead. No one else will be claiming the Nurse.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Unagi »

Chaosraven wrote:As far as Isgrimnur Faking the Nurse.
Todays lynch will prove that one way or the other.
Aren't the lynch results given to us simply due to the 'life force' of the Nurse/Doctor, so the main concern isn't that the Nurse is dead and being faked, it's that the Nurse is M2 and being trusted.

The thing that makes me seriously doubt it, is just that I don't see the need for making that play, and sharing the news of Dr's fate, etc, in that manner.

But, it would be a pretty slick move.
  • Naming pr0ner as the Dr. would be safe, (the Dr is not going to counter that cliam).
  • It would lend credibility to why Isgrimnur didn't tell anyone earliery than today.
  • It would lend credibility to the data being learned VIA a natural Nurse Scan, and not just from Mr.Bubbles' knowledge of the night kills.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by stessier »

Unagi wrote:
Chaosraven wrote:As far as Isgrimnur Faking the Nurse.
Todays lynch will prove that one way or the other.
Aren't the lynch results given to us simply due to the 'life force' of the Nurse/Doctor, so the main concern isn't that the Nurse is dead and being faked, it's that the Nurse is M2 and being trusted.

The thing that makes me seriously doubt it, is just that I don't see the need for making that play, and sharing the news of Dr's fate, etc, in that manner.

But, it would be a pretty slick move.
  • Naming pr0ner as the Dr. would be safe, (the Dr is not going to counter that cliam).
  • It would lend credibility to why Isgrimnur didn't tell anyone earliery than today.
  • It would lend credibility to the data being learned VIA a natural Nurse Scan, and not just from Mr.Bubbles' knowledge of the night kills.

Looking at the rules:
The Nurse - Coroner. Once per night, she can scan one dead player to determine their role. Retains her powers if Patient Zero or Infected Pet, but loses them if Mutant 2.
So if the Nurse is the Pet or PZ, they are still scanning the dead and we will still get our Infected/not Infected check with the lynch. That means we could be very, very screwed.

It concerns me that Isgrimnur's scans included Bubbles. I saw his explanation and it is plausible yet it still makes me wonder. I mean, did we care if it was Mutant 1 or 2? If he was 2 and didn't go boom, how does that change things versus him being 1? And now Chaos throws out there that we'll know if he is the nurse one way or the other with the lynch. While true, doesn't that seem like he's setting Isgrimnur up to be trusted soon?

It might just be the sleep deprivation, but I was talking with the Pink Elephant and Mayan Monkey God and came up with this scenario:
What if the Mutants already killed PZ and the Pet has hooked up with Mutant 2 already? Then Mutant 2's splodiness is back in play. Maybe the nurse is dead and they say Dr. is dead to get him to counter claim and either lynch him or blow him up. Then the Pet would just have to play a good janitor to make it to the end and win.

I guess none of that really matters at the moment, but you'll forgive me if I don't trust Isgrimnur as far as I can throw him. Well, unless he dies at night and we lose the ability to test our lynches...then I guess I'd believe him. But he kind of loses hit utility at that point...

During the last night phase, I was trying to figure out what Mutant 2 would look like in terms of game play. The only thing I could think of was that he might have been bold while Mutant 1 was alive, then changed his style once Bubbles died. He may or may not have changed his game play again with the subsequent lynches/night kills if PZ was killed and the Pet joined his team (since his splodie-ness would have come back into play as a viable way to whittle us down). The two that jumped out at me were Austin and Newcastle. Chaos is a close third, but his posts don't leave much to analyze - more of a "present and accounted" for thing. Except for the one where he dares us to lynch him - that seems more like normal Confusing Chaos. Theohall, on the other hand, I can't seem to make his play fit into any of the evil roles. He's just been so wrong and in such unfortunate ways that he has to be good, right? I mean, he's been on the wrong side of every play - especially the Bubbles defense. Would Mutant 2 do that? And why would PZ or the Pet try to draw that much attention to themselves?

As for the Masons - we'll know if Med Tech 1 is around if we get a missed kill. I think he should keep his head down as long as possible since his chances of causing a miss go up the longer he lives. We gain nothing if he comes out as what proof would we have to his claim?

Med Tech 2 - the shot would be nice if we have a target. But if the Dr. is really dead and no one contests Isgrimnur, how do we get one? A shot in the dark could make us lose straight away whereas if PZ is alive, maybe Mutant 2 eliminates him for us. And what if Med 2 is the Pet? He still gets the shot and he is still playing for the other side. That is the nightmare scenario I guess.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. It's very possible I missed something that will blow all that thinking up, but in the meantime, I think we should test Austin or Newcastle today and not trust Isgrimnur overly much.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Chaosraven »

It would be a very weird play for Isgrimnur to come out and claim Nurse and the Doctor is Dead if he were in fact PZ or IP.

Those two are winning right now, and would be better served to call the other Doctor, wouldn't they? PZ and IP acting as the Nurse and Doctor?

In the event PZ is dead and IP has hooked up with M2, same scenario. Who's going to claim otherwise? That team would be a little farther from winning right now.

Either way makes less sense than what has been presented to us.

For that matter even staying quiet at this point would make more sense.
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.

Sweet sweet meat come. -LordMortis
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Unagi »

stessier wrote:During the last night phase, I was trying to figure out what Mutant 2 would look like in terms of game play. The only thing I could think of was that he might have been bold while Mutant 1 was alive, then changed his style once Bubbles died. He may or may not have changed his game play again with the subsequent lynches/night kills if PZ was killed and the Pet joined his team (since his splodie-ness would have come back into play as a viable way to whittle us down). The two that jumped out at me were Austin and Newcastle. Chaos is a close third, but his posts don't leave much to analyze - more of a "present and accounted" for thing. Except for the one where he dares us to lynch him - that seems more like normal Confusing Chaos. Theohall, on the other hand, I can't seem to make his play fit into any of the evil roles. He's just been so wrong and in such unfortunate ways that he has to be good, right? I mean, he's been on the wrong side of every play - especially the Bubbles defense. Would Mutant 2 do that? And why would PZ or the Pet try to draw that much attention to themselves?
See, that's just it though - I feel that theohall's play has indeed changed.

I'd describe his play before Mr Bubbles was lynched as: Leading the charge, doesn't care what we all make of it - someone needs to stir things up.
I'd describe his play after Mr Bubbles was lynched as: You all probably are totally getting ready to kill me... I probably deserve it. Please just make it quick.
(something Newcastle just recently flashed too)

I'd most defenetely describe his earlier play as:
stessier wrote:bold while Mutant 1 was alive
and that is indeed what keeps making me think he is indeed Mutant #2.


Regarding Isgrimnur. Personally, I saw his play as being more likely if he was M2 (and originally the Nurse). Even though a Nurse-M2 looses the "scan the dead" skill, they still retain the "passively make lynches read infectious status".
Even so, I still think it's a little strange to make the play at this point in the game... But it certainly was a 'now or never' moment for that.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Chaosraven »

Pg 1 - Bubbles talks to theohall
Bubbles talks to Semaj
Bubbles talks to theohall
Day Begins
Assumption is that M2 Conversion has happened due to no kill, and further evenings proceed with a kill

Bubbles joins tru1cy vote
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.

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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Chaosraven »

Pg 2

Bubbles calls Day One a crap shoot and argues with Isgrimnur regarding voting off a silent
Bubbles responds to Remus regarding tru1cy

Pg 3

After the tru1cy self-noose, Bubbles makes a comment regarding quiet players

-----------------

On pg 3 I noted that 3 People didn't put tru1cy over the edge.

Brendan, Remus, Isgrimnur
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.

Sweet sweet meat come. -LordMortis
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Chaosraven »

Pg 4

Bubbles responds to stessier regarding Day 1 Lynch (tru1cy) after numerous players complain about the speed of Day1
Bubbles comments on lack of Night Chatter
Bubbles accepts Austins explanation for posting less

Semaj killed.
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.

Sweet sweet meat come. -LordMortis
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Chaosraven »

Pg 5

Bubbles quotes Doctor rules regarding whether we learn of Night Kills infected status
Bubbles notes the lab gets the info
(Note - Brendan and Unagi argue back)

Bubbles notes his misunderstanding as a lack of proper nutrition

(note - Isgrimnur assumes M2 does not continue the Night Kills if M1 is gone)

(note - Remus brings up PZs ability to kill M1 by infection... )
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.

Sweet sweet meat come. -LordMortis
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Chaosraven »

Theory -

Remus is infected, whether PZ or IP.

Theory 2

Remus is M2, was a Medtech and Semaj was his partner
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.

Sweet sweet meat come. -LordMortis
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Brendan »

Chaosraven wrote: Assumption is that M2 Conversion has happened due to no kill, and further evenings proceed with a kill
Clearly that's been borne out - no kill the first night, kills every subsequent night including after Bubbles' death. Ergo, when looking for M2, we should be assuming that player was contributing as M2 for the whole game thus far.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Newcastle »

Kind of trying to understand why you folks do think I am evil, I can understand it with the failed triggercut lynch that i helped promote, but outside of that i cant. Though been here and sharing my thoughts on what we should do, been pretty open. Wont fight a lynch train though, but will try to inject some analysis into anything. Ah.....let's how many lynches we got left?

9 left
2. stessier
3. Theohall
4. Austin
6. Chaosraven
8. Newcastle
9. Isgrimnur
10. Remus West
12. Brendan
13. Unagi


d= lynched during day
n- killed at night

TODAY
d- 8
n- 7
(3 evil left)

TOMORROW
d- 6
n-5
(3 evil left)

2 Days from now
d4
n-3
(game over if 3 evil left)

Right now the scenario is....we got two misses, and game over. So...you know...I aint gonna let myself be lynched easily or anything, actually will fight it tooth and nail. We cant afford any misses really, especially since the above calculation does not include the exploding one.

TODAY
w/ exploding one
d-8
(explody explodes
d-7
n-6

TOMORROW
d-5
n-4

So you know, in effect we only have the security of one today only . Tomorrow we could lose the game. Something to think about.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Newcastle »

I am actually thinking we need the help from the med techs today. We are pretty frickinig close to the edge here, and we need as much help as possible. We have a pool of 8 candidates...if we accept isgrinmur for the moment, something that i do...i can easily see the testing of bubbles as wanting to be sure.

I was giving theohall a lot of latitude actually earlier in the game, the main reason being is that i thought he was the doctor, now that proner has been revealed as the doc. I am more than happy to test him. Him acting weird and all that prior to the lynch is something that drew my eyebrows, again I tried to ignore him, with the thought that might be a play to stay alive as the doctor.

These are the people who are left....we have a 33% chance to nail someone. In this pile of people there are 3 bad guys. We take out...Isgrinmur the odds increase.

2. stessier
3. Theohall
4. Austin
6. Chaosraven
8. Newcastle
9. Isgrimnur
10. Remus West
12. Brendan
13. Unagi
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Isgrimnur »

You take me out, you just lose more quickly.

I came out figuring that I would likely be a nighttime target. Don't give them a 12-hour headstart.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Brendan »

Newcastle wrote: 2 Days from now
d4
n-3
(game over if 3 evil left)
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the rules, but if there's 3 evil left, they're still split across 2 teams, right?
Isgrimnur wrote:I came out figuring that I would likely be a nighttime target. Don't give them a 12-hour headstart.
Are you a nighttime target tonight if the two teams aren't joined? If it's M2 vs PZ/IP vs us, what's the mileage for M2 in attempting to take you out? Your power actually helps M2 because he has no scan ability on his own, and he also wants to know whether we manage to kill infected people during the day. Couple that with the possibility of you being protected by MT1, and it seems like you're an unappealing target IMO.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Newcastle »

Isgrimnur wrote:You take me out, you just lose more quickly.

I came out figuring that I would likely be a nighttime target. Don't give them a 12-hour headstart.
meant take you out from the suspect pool of 9..ie we got 8 suspects...

hence right now, i think it would be a great time for the med techs to come out. you can winnow the pool down by at least 1, if there is at least 1 remaining...if 2, then we can narrow the suspect pool down that much, so we pretty much have 6 people to choose from in the best case scenario....

worse case scenario is that both of our med techs have already died.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Newcastle »

Brendan - actually you're right, the math gets a bit complicated. I am just lumping em together in my mind is all. but even if we nail one of em today, say pz, then the remaining two join teams. So in mind we have 3 evil folks we got to get rid of.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Brendan »

Newcastle wrote:Brendan - actually you're right, the math gets a bit complicated. I am just lumping em together in my mind is all. but even if we nail one of em today, say pz, then the remaining two join teams. So in mind we have 3 evil folks we got to get rid of.
Yes, but it will never be a straight comparison of 3 bad guys to 3 good guys. There's no condition under which that'd happen.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Brendan »

Newcastle wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:You take me out, you just lose more quickly.

I came out figuring that I would likely be a nighttime target. Don't give them a 12-hour headstart.
meant take you out from the suspect pool of 9..ie we got 8 suspects...

hence right now, i think it would be a great time for the med techs to come out. you can winnow the pool down by at least 1, if there is at least 1 remaining...if 2, then we can narrow the suspect pool down that much, so we pretty much have 6 people to choose from in the best case scenario....

worse case scenario is that both of our med techs have already died.
I'm not sure it makes sense for either MT to come out - if MT2 comes out, he has to use his shot today or else he risks being infected tonight by PZ. Although, if he chooses to, he can presumably confirm whether or not MT1 is alive (both passively by making the claim, and actively in surviving the night by being protected).
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Brendan »

Unagi wrote:
Shakespeare wrote:...and Gloucester's show
Beguiles him as the mournful crocodile
With sorrow, snares relenting passengers;
Heh - I finally read this for comprehension.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Newcastle »

Brendan wrote:
Newcastle wrote:Brendan - actually you're right, the math gets a bit complicated. I am just lumping em together in my mind is all. but even if we nail one of em today, say pz, then the remaining two join teams. So in mind we have 3 evil folks we got to get rid of.
Yes, but it will never be a straight comparison of 3 bad guys to 3 good guys. There's no condition under which that'd happen.
actually you are right, so pretty much when it gets down to 2-2 then we lose (assuming the two teams merge or something like that happens, because regardless that is goign to happen....unless they're both dead..)...sorry bad math skills. So we do have an extra day or so in there.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Brendan »

Newcastle wrote: So we do have an extra day or so in there.
So... perhaps your efforts to get the med techs to out themselves are misguided?
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Newcastle »

Brendan wrote:
Newcastle wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:You take me out, you just lose more quickly.

I came out figuring that I would likely be a nighttime target. Don't give them a 12-hour headstart.
meant take you out from the suspect pool of 9..ie we got 8 suspects...

hence right now, i think it would be a great time for the med techs to come out. you can winnow the pool down by at least 1, if there is at least 1 remaining...if 2, then we can narrow the suspect pool down that much, so we pretty much have 6 people to choose from in the best case scenario....

worse case scenario is that both of our med techs have already died.
I'm not sure it makes sense for either MT to come out - if MT2 comes out, he has to use his shot today or else he risks being infected tonight by PZ. Although, if he chooses to, he can presumably confirm whether or not MT1 is alive (both passively by making the claim, and actively in surviving the night by being protected).
I actually disagree, we are getting close, we dont have a lot of misses left....if in the best case scenario they are both alive...then perhaps med 1 can protect med 2...hence saving a shot for tomorrow.

We aren't going to get any more doctor type of information, the best we can use is our analytical skilsl and intuition. So any shot we take it going to be fraught with a degree of uncertainty. If either of em come forth now, then we know the other exists.

The more we reveal in terms of pieces it also creates fewer areas where the bad dudes can hide...which is really what i am after.

Best case scenario is that both are alive...they both come out....and we trust isgrinmur....then we got 6 players whom we have to sift over to see who we want to toss overboard...thats a 50% rate of hitting a bad dude....assuming htere are 3 left...i like those chances.

Ok doin the right version of the math....

3 bad dudes left - 2 teams


Assuming they dont join forces
TODAY
d-8
n-7
(1M 2IN)

DAy 2
d6-
n-5

day 3
d4-
n3
(game over)


So if they dont join forces then we have still 3 days left...2 misses. Either which way you look at it, we are coming down to the wire here. I much rather people come out sooner rather than later.

THEY join forces

d-8
n-7
(m1-in1)

d-6
n-5

D-4
N-3

Still comes down to three days.

The risk we take though if we dont come out, more people die...and we lose further roles. If it's only 1 med tech left, i'd advice him to come out now, since we simply need to know. Best case scenario Isgrinmur lives for tomorrow, so we get 1 more answer out of him.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Newcastle »

Brendan wrote:
Newcastle wrote: So we do have an extra day or so in there.
So... perhaps your efforts to get the med techs to out themselves are misguided?
No i dont think so, i think the sooner they come out the less hiding places the bad guys have to work with. I still think it's the best thing at the moment. The most important role for mt1, is to protect the doc, secondary to that, or even equal is to buy usone more day. I dont want to accidentaly lynch him.

The only two roles that i think would be truly able to be spoofed are the doc's and the nurse.

The med techs can't be spoofed...or they can, but they aint the best ones..with mt1 they can bluff that they protected a target, and antoher got killed, because the bad dudes control the kills.

With mt2 - they cant fake the shot.

With Isgrinmurs claim, he's pretty much bait for the bad dudes right now, if he dies at night, then we know his answers are true, and that proner was the doc.

But then again it's up to the med techs to decide what they want.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Brendan »

Newcastle wrote: I actually disagree, we are getting close, we dont have a lot of misses left....if in the best case scenario they are both alive...then perhaps med 1 can protect med 2...hence saving a shot for tomorrow.
Uh, if MT2 comes out, he'll be infected by PZ if PZ is alive, thereby stealing any shot for the bad guys. MT1's protection, as I read it, is from "being murdered in one's sleep", not "from catching a really nasty cold," though it'd be great if Sean would confirm.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Newcastle »

if my math is wrong in the above, let me know...much rather be working with proper info and deadline stuff.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Unagi »

Did you read it, or just go from memory?
Sean, Minister of KtSP wrote:Med Tech 1 - Mason/Protector. Chooses one person per night to protect. Target of protection is safe from night kill and Patient Zero infection. May self protect. May not repeat. Loses secondary Protector power if Patient Zero, Infected Pet, or Mutant 2, but remains a Mason.
I think the main risk is that MT2 is already infected. The secondary risk is that he may not shoot a M2/PZ/IP.

I'm leaning toward the shot not being taken, as a miss is likely a game ender. I can't imagine a world where Remus wouldn't agree.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Newcastle »

Brendan wrote:
Newcastle wrote: I actually disagree, we are getting close, we dont have a lot of misses left....if in the best case scenario they are both alive...then perhaps med 1 can protect med 2...hence saving a shot for tomorrow.
Uh, if MT2 comes out, he'll be infected by PZ if PZ is alive, thereby stealing any shot for the bad guys. MT1's protection, as I read it, is from "being murdered in one's sleep", not "from catching a really nasty cold," though it'd be great if Sean would confirm.
you're right...mt 2 would have to use it today...wasn't thinking bout the infected dude....but do they still keep the shot?
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Brendan »

Unagi wrote:Did you read it, or just go from memory?
Sean, Minister of KtSP wrote:Med Tech 1 - Mason/Protector. Chooses one person per night to protect. Target of protection is safe from night kill and Patient Zero infection. May self protect. May not repeat. Loses secondary Protector power if Patient Zero, Infected Pet, or Mutant 2, but remains a Mason.
I think the main risk is that MT2 is already infected. The secondary risk is that he may not shoot a M2/PZ/IP.
Heh - my erroneous quibble is hereby retracted. :oops:

So, that means that Newcastle's proposal isn't that bad, as MT2 would know whether MT1 is alive or not and therefore whether or not MT1 could protect him in the evening.

I stand by my claim that Isgrimnur is likely not a night target for M2, but apparently I need to read the rules again for comprehension, and not just your Henry VI references.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Brendan »

Newcastle wrote:
Brendan wrote:
Newcastle wrote: I actually disagree, we are getting close, we dont have a lot of misses left....if in the best case scenario they are both alive...then perhaps med 1 can protect med 2...hence saving a shot for tomorrow.
Uh, if MT2 comes out, he'll be infected by PZ if PZ is alive, thereby stealing any shot for the bad guys. MT1's protection, as I read it, is from "being murdered in one's sleep", not "from catching a really nasty cold," though it'd be great if Sean would confirm.
you're right...mt 2 would have to use it today...wasn't thinking bout the infected dude....but do they still keep the shot?
I was wrong re: the rules. See above.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by theohall »

And, unfortunately, the only one with the correct read on me is stessier.

But that's normal when it comes to Unagi, whose always gotten it wrong when lynching me. :)

Still a janitor involved in two way wrong decisions - can't change that and now can't be trusted even more due to the second one.

Kill me if you must, but it's only putting the bad guys one kill closer to the win.
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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Chaosraven »

Ok, theohall and Newcastle are really stuck in a loop here.

"sorry, i know u can't trust me, don't kill me, etc"
"Where are you off to?"
"I don't know," Snufkin replied.
The door shut again and Snufkin entered his forest, with a hundred miles of silence ahead of him.

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Re: Day 4 - Lassr masticated

Post by Austin »

Werd. Join Unagi and I* in our partnership for a better tomorrow. Lynch theohall and Newcastle. Heck if we have a shooter, shoot theohall and we can take them both down today.


*Unagi and I are linked in no way (that I am aware of) apart from our mutual desire to see theohall and newcastle finally take the plunge into deathdom.
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