I have absolutely no clue at this point when I could call the number 'proven', as I've come to doubt my earlier assertions that this is all recent. My system was too flawed. It's just as likely that what I thought was accurate a decade ago was already off, and my noticing it now just represents an acceleration combined with accumulation, not a new incident. The account is 16 years old. For all I know it's 16 years of minor discrepancies. In that kind of timeframe, a few uncashed checks and the kind of minor error that everyone makes once every couple of months could have just added up.Zarathud wrote: ↑Wed Nov 22, 2023 11:11 pm You have to start with a “proven” number — either at the end or a beginning. If the numbers are off, you can check if the discrepancy is close to divisible by a whole number times a known recurring expense/income (especially if it’s a known problem)— if you’re off $2,000 and rent is $600, then it could be off by $200 and 3 missing rent withdrawals. If you can find the big numbers, you can often find the gaps of smaller ones.
That's why my plan now is to find a new accounting method (and tool), spend a few weeks learning it (the advantage here is that the error is a big positive number, so there isn't really any time pressure once I move a little out to stay below the limit), and then open the new account as I mentioned above:
1. Open a new checking account with an amount of the overage that I think is safe (maybe $500.)
2. Move all direct deposits to the new account, and move all connected payments (like utilities) to the new account.
3. Don't touch the old account. For the first couple of months, monitor to make sure that there are no connected services that I missed, and move them to the new account as well.
4. After six months, close the old account and record any remaining balance as a deposit.