Padre's Werewolf 2: Lycanthropic Boogaloo

[Padre]

How do you get that? If I had the math skills I'd show you were I get the less less the than 2 in 3 results, but I am not math guy.

18 people with 3 werewolves, first to die at night by the fangs of the wolves?

Corroborate my understanding of the setup, and I'll be in my bunk for a bit.

~Neal

It's a problem of compound probability.

Essnetially here's what happens at each fork fof the probability tree:

* The number of players drops by two (always)
* EITHER the number of wolves drops by one OR it doesn't change.

So the probability starts out 3/18 = 1/6 for minus one wolf and 5/6 the other way.

Then the follwoing four possibilities are:

3/18 x 2/16 = 1/6 x 1/8 = 2/96 = probability two wolves are killed in a row
3/18 x 14/16 = 1/6 x 7/8 = 14/96 = probability you get a wolf first try but get an innocent the next time
15/18 x 3/16 = 5/6 x 3/16 = 15/96 =probability you get an innocent first but get a wolf the second time
15/18 x 13/16 = 5/6 x 13/16 = 65/96 =probability you miss both times

The tree goes on splitting until:

* All three wolves are dead (villagers win) OR
* The number of wolves is exactly one half the number of total players (wolves win)

Is that clear enough on how to proceed? I actually wrote out a probability tree on some paper somewhere but it might be a bit illegible if I scan it in.

[Remus West]

I'd like to pretend to be all indignant now since I'm the stupid bastard that told Chaosraven he was in the friggin game so he finally showed up. I thought that since he hadn't been around he had to be innocent. I would also like to add that I truely suck at this.

I loved how you (with Ash's 'help') were trying to persuade me and Chaos to vote to lynch Aenima. I decided to play hard to get as I wasn't sure if you were playing us - I had to see which way you voted first...

Edit: I think that Ash worked on Gryndyl so that even if you backed off, we would still win.

Don't talk to me, I hate you.

[Orinoco]

we could have easily screwed it up and given ourselves away with bad target selection and/or accusations.

Hence my saying way above that you all played a good game

Thank you. I wasn't angling for a compliment however

I was trying to respond to your statement that it's all random. The luck factor is that the game starts in the wolves favour, the skill is in keeping it that way

[Orinoco]

Don't talk to me, I hate you.

I'm sorry about that - I really like you [/quote]

[Remus West]

Don't talk to me, I hate you.

I'm sorry about that - I really like you

[/quote]

I hope my skinny little tibia gets stuck in your throat like a dog on a chicken leg.

[Crux]

we could have easily screwed it up and given ourselves away with bad target selection and/or accusations.

Hence my saying way above that you all played a good game

Thank you. I wasn't angling for a compliment however

I was trying to respond to your statement that it's all random. The luck factor is that the game starts in the wolves favour, the skill is in keeping it that way

Well, it isn't all random. It's all random under some conditions. The main condition being the Seer dying before identifying any werewolves. Because then you're just shooting blind, and in actual fact the werewolves' odds improve over 75% because they are cooperating with full knowledge of who is what.

Really the odds of the villagers winning is constantly in a state of flux. Depending on who dies when, and how lucky the seer is in his/her visions, the odds can go much higher than 25%, or much lower

[The Meal]

With the assumption that the wolves don't direct the votes during the day (i.e., 5 villagers left, 2 are wolves, chance of a wolf getting lynched = 40%), the math looks like this:

[v = remaining total villagers, w = remaining total wolves,
leading fraction = percent chance of being in this condition]

Night 0, villager dies: v = 17, w = 3

Day 1 (someone gets lynched):
3/17 chance it's a wolf (v=16, w = 2)
14/17 chance it's an innocent (v = 16, w = 3)
Night 1 (innocent gets munched): [or any night]
simply reduce v by 1 and don't change w

Day/Night 2:
3/17 * 2/15 (v = 13, w = 1)
3/17 * 13/15 + 14/17 * 3/15 (v = 13, w = 2)
14/17 * 13/15 (v = 13, w = 3)

This process can then be automated.

So at the end of Day/Night 3 (v=11), the chances of "randomly" lynching 3 wolves would be:
3/17 * 2/15 * 1/13 = 0.18%

Being down to 1 remaining wolf (which is multi-term equation, but an extension of what I laid out for Day/Night 2, above) is = 7.06%

Being at 2 remaining wolves is = 42.08%.

Still having all three wolves left is = 50.68%.

The numbers after Day/Night 4 (v=9) are:
00.82% (w = 0)
14.07% (w = 1)
48.25% (w = 2)
36.86% (w = 3)

The numbers after Day/Night 5 (v=7) are:
02.39% (w = 0)
23.23% (w = 1)
49.81% (w = 2)
24.57% (w = 3)

The numbers after Day/Night 6 (v=5) are:
05.70% (w = 0)
34.14% (w = 1)
46.11% (w = 2)
14.04% (w = 3) -- wolves win/game over

The numbers after Day/Night 7 (v=3) are:
12.53% (w = 0)
45.76% (w = 1)
41.71% (w = 2+) -- wolves win (or won)/game over

The numbers after Day/Night 8 (v=1) are:
27.79% (w = 0) -- innocents won
72.21% (w = 1+) -- wolves win (or won)/game over

I see Padre spelled out the process already, but this post includes my raw numbers (and explictly states my assumption, which may be different than the author of the webpage Crux linked, explaining the difference in percentages). If the wolves can't affect how the lyncher lynch during the day, then I show the innocents had a 27.8% chance of winning at some point between days 3 and 8. Obviously if the wolves *can* affect how the voting goes, that percentage will shrink.

~Neal

[Padre]

Well, it isn't all random. It's all random under some conditions. The main condition being the Seer dying before identifying any werewolves. Because then you're just shooting blind,

Except for those identified by the seer as innocent, which (provided they survive him) are a powerful voting block. Imagine for the moment if triggercut, Spiff and Crux had all survived to the end, in place of (say) Aenima, Remus West and Gryndyl.

You would then have had a block of you who knew each other were innocent and only one person needed to persuade.

The important lesson to learn is - if the seer exonerates you and tells you such, stay alive.

And of course this still ignored the detective work that can be done from voting records and anaysing statements and the like, which can give good information.

and in actual fact the werewolves' odds improve over 75% because they are cooperating with full knowledge of who is what.

I don't see what the basis for this statement is. Could you explain?

[Ænima]

Well done fellas.

[Jiffy]

Very well played Wolves.

[Kraegor]

cool! i dont feel so bad for gettin folks killed (and thus helping the wolves win) in the game i played

[Padre]

<Super probability calculation mega team hyperforce go!>

Yep, Neal, that's right exactly. You've duplicate precisely the result that the stats page guy got (except it's listed on his page as the result for a nineteen player game, because he includes the moderator in that number for some reason).

[LordMortis]

With the assumption that the wolves don't direct the votes during the day (i.e., 5 villagers left, 2 are wolves, chance of a wolf getting lynched = 40%), the math looks like this:

[v = remaining total villagers, w = remaining total wolves,
leading fraction = percent chance of being in this condition]

Night 0, villager dies: v = 17, w = 3

Day 1 (someone gets lynched):
3/17 chance it's a wolf (v=16, w = 2)
14/17 chance it's an innocent (v = 16, w = 3)
Night 1 (innocent gets munched): [or any night]
simply reduce v by 1 and don't change w

Day/Night 2:
3/17 * 2/15 (v = 13, w = 1)
3/17 * 13/15 + 14/17 * 3/15 (v = 13, w = 2)
14/17 * 13/15 (v = 13, w = 3)

This process can then be automated.

So at the end of Day/Night 3 (v=11), the chances of "randomly" lynching 3 wolves would be:
3/17 * 2/15 * 1/13 = 0.18%

Being down to 1 remaining wolf (which is multi-term equation, but an extension of what I laid out for Day/Night 2, above) is = 7.06%

Being at 2 remaining wolves is = 42.08%.

Still having all three wolves left is = 50.68%.

The numbers after Day/Night 4 (v=9) are:
00.82% (w = 0)
14.07% (w = 1)
48.25% (w = 2)
36.86% (w = 3)

The numbers after Day/Night 5 (v=7) are:
02.39% (w = 0)
23.23% (w = 1)
49.81% (w = 2)
24.57% (w = 3)

The numbers after Day/Night 6 (v=5) are:
05.70% (w = 0)
34.14% (w = 1)
46.11% (w = 2)
14.04% (w = 3) -- wolves win/game over

The numbers after Day/Night 7 (v=3) are:
12.53% (w = 0)
45.76% (w = 1)
41.71% (w = 2+) -- wolves win (or won)/game over

The numbers after Day/Night 8 (v=1) are:
27.79% (w = 0) -- innocents won
72.21% (w = 1+) -- wolves win (or won)/game over

I see Padre spelled out the process already, but this post includes my raw numbers (and explictly states my assumption, which may be different than the author of the webpage Crux linked, explaining the difference in percentages). If the wolves can't affect how the lyncher lynch during the day, then I show the innocents had a 27.8% chance of winning at some point between days 3 and 8. Obviously if the wolves *can* affect how the voting goes, that percentage will shrink.

~Neal

That's what I was looking for, though I actually got the jist (which is what I really needed) just as you offered to rescue my ignorance. This confirms that the wolves best bet is play the game as if they were villagers, ignorant of their own desires, until things get stacked against them with a wolf death. Let the villagers build paranoia/persecution equally.

The villagers really want to prolong the vote switching guilty partys to see patterns for voting and withdraw hoping that the wolves will try to preserve each other.

[Crux]

Well, it isn't all random. It's all random under some conditions. The main condition being the Seer dying before identifying any werewolves. Because then you're just shooting blind,

Except for those identified by the seer as innocent, which (provided they survive him) are a powerful voting block. Imagine for the moment if triggercut, Spiff and Crux had all survived to the end, in place of (say) Aenima, Remus West and Gryndyl.

Right, but realistically if the seer dies at all early in the game you're only talking two or three people, who know each other are innocent but not who else is. That's a voting block that can easily be neutralised by the werewolves themselves. Or, as we saw in this game, by the random mob.

You would then have had a block of you who knew each other were innocent and only one person needed to persuade.

The odds of that block staying intact to that late in the game is extremely low though. If the wolves are paying any attention to the game...

The important lesson to learn is - if the seer exonerates you and tells you such, stay alive.

I couldn't agree more. The problem is, once the seer dies your means of doing so become limited. In the end in this game I felt compelled to reveal myself because the mob was on the verge of lynching me otherwise.

And of course this still ignored the detective work that can be done from voting records and anaysing statements and the like, which can give good information.

Except voting records can be extremely misleading. The two people who had the most guilty-appearing voting records in this game were both innocent - myself and Jiffy. Again, if the Seer is not around to out the werewolves, unless the werewolves do something stupid it is very easy for them to remain hidden. Which brings us back to blind luck.

and in actual fact the werewolves' odds improve over 75% because they are cooperating with full knowledge of who is what.

I don't see what the basis for this statement is. Could you explain?

The werewolves can manipulate the villagers to protect each other. They know who they need to protect and who they need to kill. They have information. The villagers at this point don't. They're guessing blindly, and easily swayed in one direction or another. The wolves can quietly avoid that direction being theirs.

[LordMortis]

The werewolves can manipulate the villagers to protect each other. They know who they need to protect and who they need to kill. They have information. The villagers at this point don't. They're guessing blindly, and easily swayed in one direction or another. The wolves can quietly avoid that direction being theirs.

But that is the entire point of the game. The wolves are perpetuating a crime. The villagers are sluething. The more the wolves protect themselves and control the game with what they know, them more the villagers have to slueth with. The seer makes the whole thing interesting because he begin to force the wolves to tip their hands even more. The question is what is the best way to play the seer. Inevitably, I would think it best to hide him and his cronies amongst the mass of votes, the same way you are trying to flush out the wolves. That is again, until you have to push the issue and risk giving more sluething ability to the wolves.

[Padre]

The odds of that block staying intact to that late in the game is extremely low though. If the wolves are paying any attention to the game...

Depends on how you act. If it was that easy to spot conspiracy between memebrs then the werewolves would be lynched easily too.

I couldn't agree more. The problem is, once the seer dies your means of doing so become limited. In the end in this game I felt compelled to reveal myself because the mob was on the verge of lynching me otherwise.

Mmmph. Yet the wolves managed (several times, indeed) to dissaude people from voting for them (and even to withdraw their votes for them) even without[/]i the backing of the seer. I suspect it is possible to be more persuasive than you were without making yourself an obvious target.

Except voting records can be extremely misleading. The two people who had the most guilty-appearing voting records in this game were both innocent - myself and Jiffy.

That depends on what you regard as evidence of guilt . Rememebr the wolves are trying not to get caught and so will deliberately try to avoid voting in a suspisicous way. But everything leaves a pattern. THere's a kind of bluff and double bluff thing going on.

Again, if the Seer is not around to out the werewolves, unless the werewolves do something stupid it is very easy for them to remain hidden.

ANd silence itself should lead to suspiscion. I was personally suprised people didn't make more out of Chaosraven's lack of participation. Since wolves won't wan tto draw attention to themselves, anyone remaining quiet is suspisicious. In thi sgame, though, it was mostly the noisy that got lynched.

The werewolves can manipulate the villagers to protect each other. They know who they need to protect and who they need to kill. They have information. The villagers at this point don't. They're guessing blindly, and easily swayed in one direction or another. The wolves can quietly avoid that direction being theirs.

People should also be suspisicous of anyone trying to do a lot of persuading, of course...

I'm goung to run up a thing based on voting records to see if I can't finger the werewolves post-facto using the right kind of metric.

[tru1cy]

So Padre would you run another large game like this one or do you like the 12 man games better?

[Padre]

So Padre would you run another large game like this one or do you like the 12 man games better?

I might. But not yet. I'm goig to run another small vanilla game and a "The Thing" variant first.

[LordMortis]

So Padre would you run another large game like this one or do you like the 12 man games better?

Me, I like the idea of the larger games, but I think a sort of pacing needs to be enforced. At that point, if you are silent then you will get lynched anyway. If you aren't playing then you are actively helping the wolves.

[tru1cy]

So Padre would you run another large game like this one or do you like the 12 man games better?

Me, I like the idea of the larger games, but I think a sort of pacing needs to be enforced. At that point, if you are silent then you will get lynched anyway. If you aren't playing then you are actively helping the wolves.

I agree with you here. Not posting is helping the wolves for sure. Enforcing so type of posting rule would be great.

[Padre]

I agree with you here. Not posting is helping the wolves for sure. Enforcing so type of posting rule would be great.

Difficult one to enforce. People are going to drift in and out, it's the nature of the net, especially via forum.

[Lars]

tru1y, I'll probably be running a larger game after the current one I'm running is completed. Check the Meta-Werewolf thread for details on that.

[Crux]

The odds of that block staying intact to that late in the game is extremely low though. If the wolves are paying any attention to the game...

Depends on how you act. If it was that easy to spot conspiracy between memebrs then the werewolves would be lynched easily too.

But the wolves aren't forced to act in the same way. They need only avoid being lynched themselves. Beyond that they don't care who gets lynched. This means their voting block need only be utilized if their hand is forced.

I couldn't agree more. The problem is, once the seer dies your means of doing so become limited. In the end in this game I felt compelled to reveal myself because the mob was on the verge of lynching me otherwise.

Mmmph. Yet the wolves managed (several times, indeed) to dissaude people from voting for them (and even to withdraw their votes for them) even without the backing of the seer. I suspect it is possible to be more persuasive than you were without making yourself an obvious target.

Suspect away. For whatever reason two people were convinced I was a werewolf, and others were being swayed to their opinion. tru1cy and Kelric weren't convinced of my guilt for any genuine reason - it was a random determination. Note during the entire game not one of the wolves had that same random selection pointed in their direction. Sure they were accused briefly at one point or another, but never with any consistency or persistence. This comes back to my earlier point: the wolves don't need to act except in their own defense. This means they can avoid getting onto people's radars in the early game, and hence avoid tipping their hand.

Except voting records can be extremely misleading. The two people who had the most guilty-appearing voting records in this game were both innocent - myself and Jiffy.

That depends on what you regard as evidence of guilt . Rememebr the wolves are trying not to get caught and so will deliberately try to avoid voting in a suspisicous way. But everything leaves a pattern. THere's a kind of bluff and double bluff thing going on.

But the beauty of being a werewolf is, you can sit back and do whatever is NOT attracting attention. If people are tending to vote for active accusers, then you don't be one. If they're voting for quiet people, then you participate vocally. You have the luxury of reacting. The villagers, and inparticular the seer and those he/she contacts do not have that luxury. They must initiate, must direct and must control the game to have any real chance.

Again, if the Seer is not around to out the werewolves, unless the werewolves do something stupid it is very easy for them to remain hidden.

ANd silence itself should lead to suspiscion. I was personally suprised people didn't make more out of Chaosraven's lack of participation. Since wolves won't wan tto draw attention to themselves, anyone remaining quiet is suspisicious. In thi sgame, though, it was mostly the noisy that got lynched.

Why? ChaosRaven legitemately was away for the early game. If you hadn't randomly chosen him to be a werewolf and we had all lynched him because of his silence we would have been completely wrong. Hence my assertion that lacking guidance from the Seer it is, in essence, random chance. In this game the noisy got lynched. In another game the quiet might get lynched. It just depends on the mood of the mob.

The werewolves can manipulate the villagers to protect each other. They know who they need to protect and who they need to kill. They have information. The villagers at this point don't. They're guessing blindly, and easily swayed in one direction or another. The wolves can quietly avoid that direction being theirs.

People should also be suspisicous of anyone trying to do a lot of persuading, of course...

I'm goung to run up a thing based on voting records to see if I can't finger the werewolves post-facto using the right kind of metric.

Good luck Remember this game started as a psychology experiment. For good reason. The game is very dynamic, and changes at every playing. It really comes down to the ability of the Seer and the Wolves to guage the mood of the players and act accordingly. The Wolves did a good job of this in this game, and some luck in their direction really tipped things in their favor.

Consider if any of the following hadn't happened:

- they hadn't randomly selected triggercut for death
- tru1cy/Kelric hadn't decided I was guilty (again a random determination)
- Orinoco hadn't voted for Kelric (another basically random occurance... Orinoco had no way of knowing that Kelric was who the Seer's 'pack' had thought was guilty, thereby giving a strong appearance of innocence. Without that I don't pm orinoco, and the whole game might go differently.

Those are just three quick ones off the top of my head. But they are, in essence, random. They all three changed the shape of the game dramatically.

[Asharak]

Great game everyone. I'm a little late to the post-game comments party, since I've been at work, but I'll try to answer what I can (and I'll add some more later... have to go out again in a bit). Also, my apologies if I answer things the other wolves have already addressed; I'm not going to read these three pages just to cross-reference comments already replied to.

Well played. I'm curious... why triggercut? That was the turning point of the whole game, and it seemed completely random.

Actually, you're partly to blame for that one. The night before we killed triggercut, both he and Aenima took soft shots at accusing chaosraven of being a wolf. Making it conceivable that one of them was the Seer, we applied the lesson you taught us in the last game (that the Seer should only make an accusation after getting someone to "front" for him), and lynched triggercut as the more likely Seer of the two for making his accusation second.

I'm very curious to hear the rationale behind their early kills because that was when the game was decided.

Grundbegriff: too analytical, too dangerous.
CSL: random shot in the dark at taking out the Seer, based on the idea that the Seer would try to fly under the radar early in the game. CSL hadn't posted much, so.........
triggercut: see above.
Cesare: another shot at the Seer, based on a list of likely suspects compiled by Orinoco (which he based on people's posts and accusations to date). Third time's the charm, as they say.
Spiff: for being named as a known innocent in the PM where you revealed Cesare as the Seer.
Crux: the only "known innocent" left, removing the only pillar around which the villagers could draw any form of certainty about their choices.

One other comment about Crux: we really did want to kill him on the second night, like I said at one point in the thread to defend myself against his accusation towards me. But for ages he seemed so totally lynchable, by virtue of setting himself up opposite the ultimately-innocent Kelric. It was bad luck for us that his posting the Seer PM made him instantly unlynchable. After that PM, it was just a matter of time as we used our night kills to work through the people remaining from that list.

Posting the Seer PM was a bit of a blessing and a curse for the villagers. While it gave you some certainty in terms of who to trust, it also gave us certainty - certainty that the Seer was dead, and certainty in who we needed to kill over the next couple nights.

I was probably never near the top of the wolves' grocery list.

Nope, I don't recall discussing killing you even once in the entire game.

It really all comes down to information. The wolves had it all, and we had none.

What really hurt you was the bad luck in not getting even one of the wolves, even by accident. Voting records are of limited use when every person lynched is innocent. Where they become properly meaningful is when you can compare who voted against innocents versus who voted (and who didn't vote) against guilties. Our luck in getting the Seer, and your luck in not getting, say, chaosraven, instead of Leigh on day one, rendered your primary analysis tool probably more than 50% useless.

msteelers was lynched after much discussion and a slightly dodgy voting count (again, sorry! Although I imagine one of the wolves who hadn't yet voted for him would have jumped in sooner or later to seal his fate).

For the record, and I know I told you this privately Padre, I would have done so only a couple hours after you killed him. So it really didn't make much difference.

The day's voting saw a change of tack from Asharak, who went form following the crowd to leading it with apparently-well-argued but actually very deceptive arguments.

Anyway, Asharak seemed to garner some suspiscion for doing so, but ultimately it was J.D who got hanged. At several points Asharak even managed to persuade people to drop their votes for him, which was just marvellous to see.

This was, indeed, where the game became absolutely rivetting for me. And you're dead on: it was a very conscious change of strategy for me. With the majority of the village now dead, the odds of the mob randomly picking a wolf go up - so the importance of guiding the debate rises. It was a risk, but less of one now (when it gets hard to hang someone without support from at some of the wolves) than it would have been earlier in the game. By the time I spoke up, near-unanimity in the village would have been required to lynch me. It did get close once or twice, though. I think I briefly had four votes against me in the majority-of-five day.

It was also fun. My apologies to both Crux and Remus West for the bald-faced lies I told you, the former via a long MSN conversation and the latter via PM.

Gryndyl: the irony of the PM I sent you was that I was really only attempting to you get you to drop your vote against me. And I actually assumed, since you never replied to it, that you hadn't bought it. If scamming Remus into voting with us had fallen through, I was actually going to post that PM in public and accuse you of being a wolf for not even being willing to talk to me about it. I was floored when I snuck a peak at the forums from work and saw that you were the one to seal Aenima's fate. Orinoco was actually holding his vote to await seeing Padre in the forum (to avoid giving people time to change their votes once the majority was reached).

Yeah, my "helpful" chart threw me off for the entuire rest of the game

Which was, of course, why I praised it so much.

Also, since I made this post around the same time as you posted that chart, it wasn't coincidence that I proposed my "the quiet people are guilty" theory at the same time that I stopped being quiet. I was rather worried that someone would pick up on that.

The important lesson to learn is - if the seer exonerates you and tells you such, stay alive.

This was the big downside of Crux's posting of the "Seer PM". I honestly don't know what I would have done in his situation. If he doesn't post it, he probably gets lynched immediately after Kelric shuffles off innocent. If he posts it, he buys himself, one the most dangerous single players in the game, time, but exposes a couple allies. In retrospect he should have taken one for the team, but I can see where his dilemma was during the game.

Or, as we saw in this game, by the random mob.

But the mob didn't neutralize you. We did. As above, I completely understand why you revealed the PM. But it did lead directly to the consecutive executions of everyone named in it.

- Ash

[LordMortis]

Voting records are of limited use when person lynched is innocent. Where they become properly meaningful is when you can compare who voted against innocents versus who voted (and who didn't vote) against guilties.

Voting records are always of limited use but the goal should be to prolong and get people to change their votes. Voting is more than just voting tendancies. It's also going to be in withdraws. Any action you take that can affect the game is making a statement. It's up to the listener to try to figure out which statments are bold, which are ignoarnt, and which are lies.[/quote]

[Crux]

Now we're getting somewhere

Actually, you're partly to blame for that one. The night before we killed triggercut, both he and Aenima took soft shots at accusing chaosraven of being a wolf. Making it conceivable that one of them was the Seer, we applied the lesson you taught us in the last game (that the Seer should only make an accusation after getting someone to "front" for him), and lynched triggercut as the more likely Seer of the two for making his accusation second.

Hrm. That really was lucky for you guys because he had no idea chaos was a wolf. He was shooting blind, and just happened to point gently at the wrong villager

Grundbegriff: too analytical, too dangerous.

Not a bad move. Although sometimes having an analytical player can work for you if you can control the information they recieve.

Cesare: another shot at the Seer, based on a list of likely suspects compiled by Orinoco (which he based on people's posts and accusations to date). Third time's the charm, as they say.

This was a good shot. Sadly I can take part of the blame, for contacting Orinoco. Looking back if I'd not bought into Cesare's idea that Kelric was a wolf so quickly, everything plays out differently. I wouldn't have pmed Orinoco then. But it was a good guess from you guys because I never mentioned Cesare's name to Orinoco.

One other comment about Crux: we really did want to kill him on the second night, like I said at one point in the thread to defend myself against his accusation towards me. But for ages he seemed so totally lynchable, by virtue of setting himself up opposite the ultimately-innocent Kelric. It was bad luck for us that his posting the Seer PM made him instantly unlynchable. After that PM, it was just a matter of time as we used our night kills to work through the people remaining from that list.

This was another turning point: when a few people started strongly suspecting me for no substantive reason. I spent almost the entire game on the defense instead of offense. It changed everything.

Posting the Seer PM was a bit of a blessing and a curse for the villagers. While it gave you some certainty in terms of who to trust, it also gave us certainty - certainty that the Seer was dead, and certainty in who we needed to kill over the next couple nights.

I'll address this below.

It really all comes down to information. The wolves had it all, and we had none.

What really hurt you was the bad luck in not getting even one of the wolves, even by accident. Voting records are of limited use when person lynched is innocent. Where they become properly meaningful is when you can compare who voted against innocents versus who voted (and who didn't vote) against guilties. Our luck in getting the Seer, and your luck in not getting, say, chaosraven, instead of Leigh on day one, rendered your primary analysis tool probably more than 50% useless.

You hit the nail on the head here. Without one known wolf, and the seer dead it was a true crapshoot.

The day's voting saw a change of tack from Asharak, who went form following the crowd to leading it with apparently-well-argued but actually very deceptive arguments.

It was also fun. My apologies to both Crux and Remus West for the bald-faced lies I told you, the former via a long MSN conversation and the latter via PM.

Don't feel bad. I never completely trusted you I just had no hope of lynching you and I wasn't sure one way or the other to do so.

The important lesson to learn is - if the seer exonerates you and tells you such, stay alive.

This was the big downside of Crux's posting of the "Seer PM". I honestly don't know what I would have done in his situation. If he doesn't post it, he probably gets lynched immediately after Kelric shuffles off innocent. If he posts it, he buys himself, one the most dangerous single players in the game, time, but exposes a couple allies. In retrospect he should have taken one for the team, but I can see where his dilemma was during the game.

Actually I don't think you've thought this one through all the way. Take the scenario where I don't say anything a little further... I get lynched. Then there's only Spiff left. Spiff can't finger anyone since he isn't the Seer. He only knows he is innocent... which is the same anyone else in the game knows about themselves. Even if he tries to tell someone the Seer cleared his name (a claim anyone can make) he has no corroboration and nobody to back his claim.

So in essence, Spiff might as well be a regular villager at this point. By 'outing' the pair of us, I gave us voting power and credibility. It was the only logical play to make at that point because the math was bad any other route I could have taken. This gave us the best chance of winning, although still not a great chance. The hinge was just us picking a wolf to vote down with our one day of credibility. We guessed wrong If we guess right then everything changes. But if I stay silent and get lynched, the village is worse off than if I had spoken.

Or, as we saw in this game, by the random mob.

But the mob didn't neutralize you. We did. As above, I completely understand why you revealed the PM. But it did lead directly to the consecutive executions of everyone named in it.

I disagree. The only reason I was forced to 'out' myself was suspicion from my fellow innocent villagers. The mob mentality neutralized my ability to influence the game with any freedom. And again, if I don't reveal the pm, and include the names then the village is a mob with zero direction, zero cohesion and zero knowledge. In this scenario, the only people left in the game with any knowledge are the werewolves. That can never end well.

I took the only course available which gave us some chance at victory. Unfortunately, Spiff, Cesare and I were just sure of the wrong man (Kelric). A true series of bad coincidences.

1) triggercut blindly accuses chaosraven, thereby getting on the wolves' radar.
2) wolves kill triggercut on lucky guess, thereby breaking up Seer's voting block.
3) Seer's voting block wrongly suspicious of Kelric (essentially a blind choice). Leads to Crux's pm to Orinoco (not critical, but definitely harmful).
4) Villagers wrongfully suspicious of Crux (again random choice).
5) Werewolves guess at Cesare and get him. Look to lynch Crux.

At that point the warp and weave were set and we had one guessing chance to 'get in the game'. We guessed wrong.

[Chaosraven]

Let me add my view just as far as the votes went:

1st: The "original 9" as I called them in my bait posts
Kelric, Cesares, JD, Remus, Jiffy, tru1cy, spiff, crux, msteelers

no wolf assistance needed here.

2nd: Orinoco starts the ball rolling on msteelers
JD, Gryndyl, triggercut, Jiffy, tru1cy, crux seal the deal.

other than the intial finger point and vote only one wolf involved.

3rd: Jiffy points to tru1cy
Crux, spiff, gryndyl, cesare

this pulls votes from orinoco and asharak to finish him off.

4th: this is the evil railroad job. with only 6 needed for a majority
Kelric garners 7 votes from villagers and 1 wolf.
Crux, JD, spiff, Jiffy, Remus, AEnima, Gryndyl

Ash has the wolf vote.

5th: The day Jiffy died... uh, almost.
We had to be active in this vote as asharak was on the block despite our attempt to get Jiffy up and gone.

When the vote swung away from Jiffy we jumped on it
Crux, Remus, Asharak, Jiffy, and Chaosraven

(this was dangerous for me as I had also given the almost fatal 5th vote for Jiffy before the votes swung back)

6th and final

We concluded that this vote would need a villager to start off, hoping to see an innocent chosen so that we could indeed wolfpile the vote... but not all at once. We needed to maintain just enough to wait for Padre to return to cast the last vote.

The recall of votes called for by Remus scared the hell out of me (though it was a close call between Jiffy and Asharak at the time)

I stepped out for a vote on AEnima hoping to use the last shred of my "immunity" and "innocence" as he had rightly pointed out that by calling the kettle black I was pot and using the exact smokescreen I claimed to hate.

Remus followed

Asharak followed

Gryndyl came aboard which allowed Orinoco to wait a bit longer.

Orinoco dropped the extra vote as Padre returned in case either Remus or Gryndyl backed out.

Total votes cast by wolves resulting in death:
1st: 0
2nd: 1
3rd: 2
4th: 1
5th:2
6th: all 3 (only 2 needed)



Based on this I think the premise that there will be at least one shadowy wolf (both in posting and in voting) is to be expected.

I think the worst thing the wolves can do is vote together as a block unless ABSOLUTELY required as I explained to my partners on the final day.

I stated that if the suspicion was out there that we three were the wolves, a vote of all three together before the vote could be finalized and counted (no takebacks!) would seal our fate and cost us the game.

So we still had to be cautious, needing at least one innocent to believe in at least one of our innocence.

Let me caution future bad guys not to jump too quickly. You have the advantage, you already know who your allies are. You need to sow dissension and fan the flames.

[Orinoco]

Ahh - a bonus of this new forum is that I get to relive the glory days again!

Unfortunately, this was the pinicle of my WW career. I was never trusted again

An interesting thing to note is how much more evolved the villager strategy is now. Or is it? A strategy discussion thread may be needed but it will require the more analytically inclined of us to start I think...

[Orinoco]

Also - a "where are they now?" retrospective is interesting...

Chaosraven rose to great heights, before decending into madness

Remus went on on to lead more and more innocents to Remuscide

I fell into mediocraty

Many of the early participants burnt out very quickly - one of the reasons why I take numerous short breaks from the game(s).

[Chaosraven]

Unfortunately, this was the pinicle of my WW career. I was never trusted again

YOU were never trusted again???

This tainted my good name so bad I descended into Madness.
(I didn't so much Fall as Saunter Vaguely Downwards)

[Orinoco]

YOU were never trusted again???

[/size]

Well, they do say that "Hell hath no fury like a Remus scorned" so he made sure your name was mud afterwards. I'm glad I'm not on his list