[WW]Do Overlords Dream of Electronic Sheep - Replicants Win

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 2:59 am

well done team. One replicant down..am assuming 3 more to go. Sorry for the lack of participation so far....Xmas travel and what not. I looked back upon the votes from the first night, and unfortunately FTwalker had not cast a vote. Was hoping could see some sort of pattern from it. Though this last vote, hopefully can guide some of our decisions further and maybe find something from it. In all honesty my radar hasnt gone off for anyone at the moment.

I think it would be safe to assume that most of the replicants did not vote for one of their own, they might have thrown one vote that way to split their votes, and make our job a bit tougher in terms of finding them. Hence am thinking we might find another int eh stack of the votes for FTWALKER, but i bet there were 2 replicants who did not vote one of their own off. The only scenario where i htink this would not apply, is if they knew that FTwalker was going down, and decided to let him be the sacrificial lamb to ingratiate themselves further with us humans. We shall see.

Truicy's actions are peculiar, in terms of willingness to throw himself under the bridge, but his actions did not come until FTwalkers fate was pretty much confirmed.

Anyway, will be around and hope to participate more. Again sorry for hte lack of being around.

SirReal · Post by **SirReal** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 6:02 am

FTWalker was my first "because he's the first on the list and not talking" vote.

That I switched to Silky.

Well, one down, two to go! What's the math on there being three to go after tonight?

tru1cy · Post by **tru1cy** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 7:45 am

welp looks like my suspicion was unfounded. I guess I will follow LM direction. If I have to die so be it

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 5:13 pm

The morning comes again... sirens in the night.

No player killed in the night.

IT IS DAY

VOTING IS OPEN
VOTING TO BE CLOSED WITH SUN EVENING 4pm TIME LIMIT
PLAYERS REMAINING 13
MAJORITY IS 7

SirReal · Post by **SirReal** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 5:15 pm

Chaosraven wrote:No player killed in the night.

So. I guess this is where Grund restates that he's not a replicant...

tru1cy · Post by **tru1cy** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 5:19 pm

We have to assume that FTwalker has been replaced. I would like to hear who LM protected as he might have guessed right again.

Btw, I won't automatically assume that Grund has joined the skin jobs. They would have to assume that we would consider that and lynch him. Let's look for a least likely target.

SirReal · Post by **SirReal** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 6:31 pm

tru1cy wrote:We have to assume that FTwalker has been replaced. I would like to hear who LM protected as he might have guessed right again.

Btw, I won't automatically assume that Grund has joined the skin jobs. They would have to assume that we would consider that and lynch him. Let's look for a least likely target.

Ah, but they would also assume that we'd look for someone else because Grund is so obvious, and therefore recruit him!

Cesare · Post by **Cesare** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 6:34 pm

Can the replicants refrain from attacking someone? Do two nights of non-kills automatically mean that there's some combination of protection/replicating going on?

I still think the safe bet is that there's 3 replicants left.

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 6:34 pm

Ok this is strange. What does this exactly mean. This is the second night that no one was killed. What are the likely senarios for the first night.

Kelric · Post by **Kelric** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 6:39 pm

Cesare wrote:Can the replicants refrain from attacking someone? Do two nights of non-kills automatically mean that there's some combination of protection/replicating going on?

I still think the safe bet is that there's 3 replicants left.

Welcome to the game.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 6:56 pm

SirReal wrote:So. I guess this is where Grund restates that he's not a replicant...

I thought LordMortis said, or implied, that he knew I had been VKd. If that's true, then it's clear I'm not a Replicant.

It does seem to be the case that FTWalker has been replaced, unless LordMortis pops in and says he protected someone against an attack.

Speaking of....

Cesare wrote:Can the replicants refrain from attacking someone? Do two nights of non-kills automatically mean that there's some combination of protection/replicating going on?

Replicants may withhold their attack, but why would they? Every tactical advantage matters in this game. {Edit: Actually, looking over the rules again, I think I'm wrong about that.}

Possible combinations for the last two nights include:

failed attack + failed attack
failed attack + recruitment
recruitment + failed attack

The recruitment + recruitment case never occurs under these rules, so we can be sure that a Bladerunner is alive and that he has indeed defended someone at least once.

Since LordMortis has made a credible case that he is the Bladerunner and since we now have proof positive that some Bladerunner is active, I think it's safe to believe he's the Bladerunner. That means it's also safe to trust those he has cleared.

Mr Bubbles wrote:What does this exactly mean. This is the second night that no one was killed. What are the likely scenarios for the first night.

The likely scenario for the first deathless night is the one LordMortis disclosed: he believed I was human, guessed (correctly) that I would be targeted, and protected me, thus earning the VK that he used to clear Trikane.

The likely scenario for last night is that the Replicants figured they'd do well to recruit their fourth before doing so becomes difficult. I imagine the exposure of FTWalker added urgency to that program.

Whom would they select? Either a tactically strong player or a very low profile player-- ideally someone who's both.

Right, Bubbles and Cesare?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 7:22 pm

I wrote:
I wrote: 1. Caine, Cesare, pr0ner, Zurai
2. FTWalker, Mr Bubbles, Newcastle, setaside, tru1cy
3. SirReal, Kelric

My current top suspects for Replicanthood are:

SirReal
tru1cy
Zurai

Since FTWalker was definitely mech, I was wrong about at least one of these three. However, one of these three could've been recruited after the fact.

If I were a Replicant, I wouldn't recruit somebody who was already on a list of suspects; I'd do what I mentioned in my previous message. Which of the low-profilers do you reckon is the most likely choice?

Trikane · Post by **Trikane** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 7:33 pm

Not enough information yet to try and determine who has been recuited, but I think its a safe bet that somneone has. For now I will go with Tru1cy until more information presents itself.

tru1cy · Post by **tru1cy** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 7:51 pm

okay tru1cy if my death saves us then so be it

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 8:29 pm

tru1cy wrote:okay tru1cy if my death saves us then so be it

Dude, you have more of a deathwish than any Citizen I've ever seen.

Even though I believe you're probably a Replicant, I feel like we ought to let you live and kill the other two first, just to torment you!

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Dec 28, 2006 11:32 pm

Chaosraven wrote:
The morning comes again... sirens in the night.

No player killed in the night.

IT IS DAY

VOTING IS OPEN
VOTING TO BE CLOSED WITH SUN EVENING 4pm TIME LIMIT
PLAYERS REMAINING 13
MAJORITY IS 7

And that should actually prove without a doubt that first I am the blade runner and second that we still have three replicants running around.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 12:30 am

For ponderin':

Web of Trust:

st_dysan (confirmed innocent through slaughter)
Silky (confirmed innocent through execution)
LordMortis (confirmed Bladerunner through back-to-back victimless nights)
Grundbegriff (confirmed innocent by LordMortis)
Trikane (confirmed innocent by LordMortis)
Doctor1
Doctor2?

Nexus of Deceit:

FTWalker (confirmed Replicant through execution)

Unconfirmed:

Caine
Cesare
Kelric
Mr Bubbles
Newcastle
pr0ner
setaside
SirReal
tru1cy
Zurai

LordMortis: did your protection cause the lack of death last night, or did the Replicants get their extra man?

Carried forward from here for discussion, since I'm still alive:

Perhaps today is the day that one of the Cops, if both are alive, should consider coming forward.

If X steps up today and claims to be a Cop, what follows?

Scenario 1: If X is a liar and the Cop(s) know that X is a liar, a real Cop should reply by coming forward to expose the liar as a Replicant.
Scenario 2: If X is a real Cop, and nobody else steps forward to contradict him, then X (and his hidden partner, if alive) should be folded into the web of trust. That would bring us closer to winning mathwise.
Scenario 3: If X is a real Cop, and if some fake Cop, Z, step forward, then folks will have to decide which one is the real Cop and which one is a Replicant. The best way to do this is for the Second Cop, if alive, to step forward. By midgame, the Cops are more valuable as members of the web of trust than as a private coalition. If no second Cop is available-- and I know this sounds harsh, but it's true-- it's better to test the issue by having the crowd kill one of the two claimants, saving the VKs to use on other people. That'll take guts on the part of the solo Cop, but it's good for the team.

If the crowd kills a Replicant, good. If the crowd kills a Cop, at least they end up also knowing a Replicant. In either case, the precious VKs of the Doctors are not squandered and can expand the circle of knowledge.

The only downside to having a Cop come forward (with backup, if necessary) is that the Replicants will then know whom not to choose in an effort to recruit their 4th member. But that issue is now settled, so the only remaining value of the Cop alliance it to expand the web of trust before death prevents that knowledge from spreading.

Thoughts?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 1:27 am

Grundbegriff wrote:LordMortis: did your protection cause the lack of death last night, or did the Replicants get their extra man?

I am not even going to say if I protected anyone, but I did not save anyone.

Perhaps today is the day that one of the Cops, if both are alive, should consider coming forward.

IMO, now would be an excellent time, but I can rarely see several moves ahead in chess. The only downside I see with the cop(s) coming forward is that replicants will know if there are one or two doctors left and that will allow them to plan accordingly. I highly suggest that cop(s) discuss this privately if there are more than one of them and if there are more than one of them and that they do decide to come forward to only have one come forward for the moment.

This might be confusing for some but if we see a cop poke his head out then it will be very clear at the time.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 2:22 am

LordMortis wrote:The only downside I see with the cop(s) coming forward is that replicants will know if there are one or two doctors left and that will allow them to plan accordingly. I highly suggest that... only ... one come forward for the moment.

That's a good point. Right now, the only people who know for sure how many Doctors there are are the Doctor(s) and LordMortis. Since the number of Doctors is info valuable to the Replicants, it would be good to continue to obfuscate it.

If there is only one Cop, now is the time to come out and not to say anything (yet) about whether or not there's another Cop.

If there are two Cops, they should talk this through, but now is still the time for one of them to come out and not to say anything (yet) about whether or not there's another Cop.

tru1cy · Post by **tru1cy** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 10:55 am

Grundbegriff wrote:
tru1cy wrote:okay tru1cy if my death saves us then so be it
Dude, you have more of a deathwish than any Citizen I've ever seen.

Even though I believe you're probably a Replicant, I feel like we ought to let you live and kill the other two first, just to torment you!

Not a deathwish, but really my death is unimportant. I'm a norm, but without anyway to prove it. Since I openly opposed you and LM I have made myself a target, so if my death will give the group more information the better

setaside · Post by **setaside** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 4:28 pm

I apologize but I will be very spotty for the next several days. My vehicle finally gave up the ghost last night so I'm on the phone trying to figure out if I should get my car repaired or get a new one. I won't be around much.

For that purpose, as well as because I haven't caught up on the thread yet, I will be abstaining from a vote again. If this shifts suspicion onto me, it's unwarranted but understandable. If my lynching keeps the specials safe, I'm okay with that.

K. Wish me luck.

SirReal · Post by **SirReal** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 4:36 pm

Wow, this thread is really filling up with deathwishers. I don't know who to vote for, so I'll go with tru1cy until something better turns up.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 5:13 pm

So we have Setaside and Tru1cy both claiming to be citizens. Honestly, I'm not sure that's helping at this point. What you are doing right now, if you are citizens, is narrowing down the hunt for the doctor(s) without actually providing any help.

Sorry Tru1cy, while I hope that the vote does not go off before we hear from the cops and get some more information, claiming citizenry strangely makes you my target. I want to keep my doctor(s) hidden.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 5:16 pm

The proposition on the table is not Against Whom Should We Vote? The proposition on the table is Should A Cop Come Forward To Expand The Web Of Trust While It's Still Possible To Do So?

It would be nice to see a Cop come forward. It would also be nice to see discussion of the issue. As far as I can tell, if the Cops don't arrange for one Cop to come forward, now that the Replicants have acquired their 4th and immunity to conversion is irrelevant, then the Cops are basically useless to the Human team. Their sole remaining power is in their ability to gain trust, either through lack of other Cop claimants or by vouching for one another.

Am I wrong about that?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 5:22 pm

LordMortis wrote:What you are doing right now, if you are citizens, is narrowing down the hunt for the doctor(s) without actually providing any help.

That's correct. Coming Forward as a Mere Citizen is not only unhelpful to the team, it's actively harmful to the team.

The only Coming Forward that would help right now would be for one Cop to step up to the plate and ask for trust.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 5:35 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:The proposition on the table is not Against Whom Should We Vote? The proposition on the table is Should A Cop Come Forward To Expand The Web Of Trust While It's Still Possible To Do So?

I withdraw my vote for Tru1cy but also fear the I might end up getting distracted and then not actually voting before Sunday night. It could be really easy to go out tonight, come in too late, wake up late tommorrow, get involved in housework and then never see what happens here. I'd like to see some discourse happen but at the same time, I'd like to get my vote in (that is subject to change).

tru1cy · Post by **tru1cy** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 5:42 pm

While I understand your point the damage has already been done. I have no wish to die, but I am sort of boxed into a corner.

Zurai · Post by **Zurai** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 6:41 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:Am I wrong about that?

Nope, the only power the Cops have is the bond of trust.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 8:43 pm

Zurai wrote:Nope, the only power the Cops have is the bond of trust.

So if that point, and the related points, are understood, should we assume that anyone who posts here without coming out as a Cop is claiming not to be a Cop?

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 8:46 pm

I'm not a cop

Kelric · Post by **Kelric** » Fri Dec 29, 2006 8:47 pm

I'M NOT SPARTACUS!

Wait... wrong thread?

Mr Bubbles · Post by **Mr Bubbles** » Sat Dec 30, 2006 6:40 pm

I assume things are gonna be kind of quiet until the new year. Any plans to extend the time limits?

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Sun Dec 31, 2006 1:47 pm

With only three votes still cast and three hours to go, yeah I'm inclined to give an extension... perhaps until 4pm monday.

Kelric · Post by **Kelric** » Sun Dec 31, 2006 7:31 pm

Chaosraven wrote:
With only three votes still cast and three hours to go, yeah I'm inclined to give an extension... perhaps until 4pm monday.

If I go out tonight, I might not even be awake by 4pm on Monday.

I think it's pretty obvious by now that the Cop(s) is not/aren't coming forward. As we need to vote for somebody and nobody has come to my attention as being the most likely to be a Replicant other than tru1cy, he'll get my vote.

tru1cy

With that said, I'm not sure that he's a Replicant. His constant death wish is either a very good (and risky) cover or he's got some plan that I don't even want to try and comprehend.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Dec 31, 2006 7:37 pm

Kelric wrote:I think it's pretty obvious by now that the Cop(s) is not/aren't coming forward.

I think it's likely that most of the game's participants haven't even been around. Why jump to conclusions about what the Cop(s) will do?

I do think an extension on the deadline would be a good idea. I'd recommend 4pm Tuesday, instead of Monday.

Kelric · Post by **Kelric** » Sun Dec 31, 2006 7:52 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Kelric wrote:I think it's pretty obvious by now that the Cop(s) is not/aren't coming forward.
I think it's likely that most of the game's participants haven't even been around. Why jump to conclusions about what the Cop(s) will do?

Since night began and FTWalker was revealed as a Replicant, 11 of the 13 remaining players have posted in this thread with the sole exceptions being Caine and pr0ner - both of whom have been very quiet all game. I'm going to throw a guess out there and say that this is the highest percentage of participation we've had in one game phase since the game began, even if some of the people only posted once. It just took nailing a Replicant to bring it about.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sun Dec 31, 2006 8:07 pm

Kelric wrote:Since night began and FTWalker was revealed as a Replicant, 11 of the 13 remaining players have posted in this thread with the sole exceptions being Caine and pr0ner - both of whom have been very quiet all game.

If the Cop or Cops have already posted in the thread this turn and are not playing along with the Bladerunner and his web of trust, then they're playing against that web of trust.

Why would they do this? Perhaps because they misapprehend the nature of their own roles as defined in the ruleset. Perhaps because they overestimate the value of their private PM party and underestimate the value to all their colleagues of knowing whom not to accuse.

Right now, we need to narrow down the set of Replicant candidates so no votes and no VKs will be wasted. That is the single most urgent need.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Mon Jan 01, 2007 2:23 pm

I am disappointed that we haven't heard from a cop.

SirReal · Post by **SirReal** » Mon Jan 01, 2007 2:37 pm

LordMortis wrote:I am disappointed that we haven't heard from a cop.

I suppose they could both be dead?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Mon Jan 01, 2007 3:08 pm

SirReal wrote:
LordMortis wrote:I am disappointed that we haven't heard from a cop.
I suppose they could both be dead?

I guess that's possible, but it seems unlikely.

We figured odds were that st_dysan was a Special. Maybe he was a Cop. Let's see what may have happened if he was:

Night #1:
Replicants slaughter st_dysan (Cop)
Doctor #1 VKs somebody (Grundbegriff?)
Doctor #2 VKs somebody.
Bladerunner protects somebody

Day #1:
Citizens execute Silky (Human-- possible Cop)

Night #2:
Replicants attack Grundbegriff (Citizen)
Doctor #1 VKs LordMortis (Bladerunner)
Doctor #2 VKs LordMortis (Bladerunner)
Doctor #1 ends up in PM relationship with Doctor #2
Bladerunner protects Grundbegriff (Citizen)
Bladerunner earns VK, uses it on Trikane (Human)

Day #2:
Citizens execute FTWalker (Replicant)

Night #3:
Replicants attack some Citizen; he becomes a Replicant.
Doctor #1 VKs somebody.
Doctor #2 VKs somebody.
Bladerunner protects somebody.

Day #3:
That's today. Why does the thread's title say "Day Four?"

On this scenario, it's possible that both Cops are dead, if the Cops were st_dysan and Silky. There's only one thing wrong with this theory, though: If Silky was a Cop and knew that he was going to die as the final Cop at the hands of the crowd, what possible reason could he have to withhold that information rather than spill all?

On the other hand, if st_dysan was a Doctor and Silky was a Cop, Silky might've kept quiet to protect the cover of the remaining Cop. In that case, this is the time when the remaining Cop can help his team by coming forward!

It seems to me unlikely that both Cops are dead. At least one is alive, and if he thinks he's being a hero by withholding his info till a later turn, he must not have done the math yet.

Maybe he just doesn't want to be pressured into stepping forward by the likes of me, on someone else's timetable, rather than when he feels like it. That's fine, but this is a team game, not a contest of egos.

The time to muster is now, if y'all want to win this game!