Scottish Independence?

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Re: Scottish Independence?

Post by GreenGoo »

Isgrimnur wrote:No, it's their Quebec.
It's UK's Canada, but without the natural resources, population, economy or independent currency.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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Zarathud wrote:So Scotland is the UK's Alaska? Sounds right to me.
Texas. Constantly threatening independence, misleadingly large, but unable to survive economically on its own.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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GreenGoo wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:No, it's their Quebec.
It's UK's Canada, but without the natural resources, population, economy or independent currency.
How's their hockey?
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Re: Scottish Independence?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Their ice looks a little green around the gills.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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Holman wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote:No, it's their Quebec.
It's UK's Canada, but without the natural resources, population, economy or independent currency.
How's their hockey?
It seems fine except the pucks are friggin heavy and they seem to be using old brooms or something.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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Yeah we have the same problem here... when you ask the "hard" question, the separatist just dismiss them as "it won't be a problem".

Riiiight, if Quebec ever becomes independant, I'm GTFO , it's going to fail so hard and I don't want to be here when it happens.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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Quebec is what happens when the French run the country but you put the Queen of England on your money.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

Post by Holman »

Just a side question, but I think about this when the weird fantasy of Texas secession comes up:

How "mixed" are Scottish demographics? Would an independent Scotland suffer a brain drain as educated professionals (many of them presumably from the south) relocate to the UK? Is there something about an independent-but-economically-strapped Scotland that would attract non-Scots?

Given the proportions, I assume that an exodus of Scots from the UK to the north would not be the same.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

Post by msduncan »

Holman wrote:Just a side question, but I think about this when the weird fantasy of Texas secession comes up:

How "mixed" are Scottish demographics? Would an independent Scotland suffer a brain drain as educated professionals (many of them presumably from the south) relocate to the UK? Is there something about an independent-but-economically-strapped Scotland that would attract non-Scots?

Given the proportions, I assume that an exodus of Scots from the UK to the north would not be the same.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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Re: Scottish Independence?

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Apparently the SNP leader has threatened that Scotland will walk away from its share of the national debt if post-secession Britain does not agree to a currency agreement that would allow Scotland to retain the pound.

What options does Britain have if Scotland makes that threat? And regardless, if I'm a creditor, wouldn't I try to sue post-independent Scotland (as well as rump Britain) to collect regardless of what independent Scotland says?
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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El Guapo wrote:Apparently the SNP leader has threatened that Scotland will walk away from its share of the national debt if post-secession Britain does not agree to a currency agreement that would allow Scotland to retain the pound.

What options does Britain have if Scotland makes that threat? And regardless, if I'm a creditor, wouldn't I try to sue post-independent Scotland (as well as rump Britain) to collect regardless of what independent Scotland says?
Defaulting on their debt obligations sounds like a great idea for a newly minted country with no economy to speak of, which will be desperately trying to attract new foreign investment.

So yeah, they are blackmailing England, but cutting off the nose to spite the face seems likes a bad idea.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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El Guapo wrote:Apparently the SNP leader has threatened that Scotland will walk away from its share of the national debt if post-secession Britain does not agree to a currency agreement that would allow Scotland to retain the pound.

What options does Britain have if Scotland makes that threat? And regardless, if I'm a creditor, wouldn't I try to sue post-independent Scotland (as well as rump Britain) to collect regardless of what independent Scotland says?
So, "If you don't prop up our economy, we will destroy our economy!"

Sounds like a great idea. Britain's options are to call the bluff.

Scotland's two largest banks, RBS and Lloyd's, have said they will re-domicile in England on a yes vote. What exactly that will mean I'm not sure but IIRC, combined their assets are more than double that of the rest of Scotland. RBS is majority owned by Britain, and LLoyd's is around 1/4 held, after bailing the banks out.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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LawBeefaroni wrote: So, "If you don't prop up our economy, we will destroy our economy!"
It sounds like the plan is to gang aft agley.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

Post by Pyperkub »

I recently read Charles Stross' Halting State and Rule 34, a near-future (<10 years) SF series (sort of- related, not necessarily a series yet) set in Scotland, and Scotland was Independent in their stories.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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Things get nasty:
On Tuesday, Labour party leader Ed Miliband was forced to cut short a walkabout tour of Edinburgh — where he was attempting to campaign for Scots to stay in the UK — after he was swarmed by pro-independence protesters The Guardian reports. As Miliband tried to give interviews, he was drowned out by hecklers who branded him a “liar” and “serial murderer.”

The evening before, politicians Danny Alexander, the Chief secretary to the Treasury, and George Galloway, a member of parliament for the left-wing Respect Party, appeared at a “No” campaign event at Glasgow’s Royal Concert Hall. During Alexander’s address to the crowd, he was harassed by hecklers, some of whom walked out.
...
Galloway, who also took the stage, said, “In the last 30 minutes I have been told I am going to face a bullet.” According to the Telegraph, Galloway also pleaded with the crowd: “We have got to keep the hatred and violence out of this debate.”

Of course, Galloway isn’t the first politician to note the dark tone the debate has taken. When Labour MP Jim Murphy visited Scotland in August in order to campaign for the “Better Together” side, he said he was met with hostility and violence. Writing in The Spectator, Murphy said that his public appearances were marred by “[g]roups of Yes voters being organized to turn up to intimidate the No campaigners and silence undecided voters” and that he was pelted with eggs and called “a terrorist and often a pedophile too.”
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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standard techniques.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

Post by Moliere »

Isgrimnur wrote:Things get nasty:
he was pelted with eggs and called “a terrorist and often a pedophile too.”
At least he wasn't called an atheist.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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This was bound to happen. Britain should never have given them their stupid stone back.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

Post by Holman »

I've noticed that every interview with a Scot (whether politician, man in the street, or rockstar) I've heard gives the Independence side more prominence. Often they are the only side featured, and they always get more airtime and more attention from the interviewer. I've yet to hear a "No" representative interviewed alone.

I know Yes is the more interesting and dramatic side, but it gives a very skewed picture of the debate, especially when it's running so evenly.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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Holman wrote: I know Yes is the more interesting and dramatic side, but it gives a very skewed picture of the debate, especially when it's running so evenly.
Yep, it's change vs. status quo. One isn't boring, the other is. Even from afar, either nothing changes or Scotland implodes. I don't want the latter to happen but it sure would be "interesting times."
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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The expected turnout definitely looks to be one for the record books:
The Daily Telegraph wrote:6. How high will the turnout go?

97pc of the adult population of Scotland have registered to vote in the referendum, or just over 4.29 million. The numbers are unprecedented in Scottish electoral history, leading academic experts to speculate about how many records Thursday’s vote will break. At a minimum, we can expect turnout to exceed 80pc, higher than any general election for 60 years, and dwarfing turnout in Holyrood elections, when around half of voters typically cast a ballot. The higher turnout goes, the more voters are drawn in from sections of the Scottish electorate who have seldom engaged with any political question, and who probably don’t answer polls much either. Predicting how such voters will behave is very difficult indeed, as we have very little information to go on. The yes campaign has argued that the so-called “missing million will lean towards independence – reasoning that only the prospect of radical change would draw such voters into politics. The evidence for this is, however, thin – one careful analysis suggests that support for independence was, if anything, lower among the politically disengaged. However, this was undertaken before the recent surge for “yes” – and the least engaged voters are likely to have less settled opinions on the issue. With the polls so closely divided, it seems likely that the result will be decided by voters drawn into politics for the first time by the question of independence. Whatever the outcome, this would in itself be a victory for the democratic process.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

Post by Archinerd »

The pictures of the "YES" people look happier than the "NO" people on the BBC.

Image
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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Black Lives Matter.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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Britain's Trident sub fleet is based in Scotland so I guess they can seize the subs and become part of the nuclear weapons club.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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$iljanus wrote:Britain's Trident sub fleet is based in Scotland so I guess they can seize the subs and become part of the nuclear weapons club.
Not only that, but most of Britain's nukes are stationed in Scotland. But Scottish nationalist leaders have said that they would get rid of all of them (send them to England) post independence.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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El Guapo wrote:
$iljanus wrote:Britain's Trident sub fleet is based in Scotland so I guess they can seize the subs and become part of the nuclear weapons club.
Not only that, but most of Britain's nukes are stationed in Scotland. But Scottish nationalist leaders have said that they would get rid of all of them (send them to England) post independence.
Ahh, "send them to England". I get it... ;)
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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$iljanus wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
$iljanus wrote:Britain's Trident sub fleet is based in Scotland so I guess they can seize the subs and become part of the nuclear weapons club.
Not only that, but most of Britain's nukes are stationed in Scotland. But Scottish nationalist leaders have said that they would get rid of all of them (send them to England) post independence.
Ahh, "send them to England". I get it... ;)
Yeah, they've been oddly vague about the method of delivery...
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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El Guapo wrote:[Yeah, they've been oddly vague about the method of delivery...
Although they did mention that the US might get a few of them too. *wink wink*
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Re: Scottish Independence?

Post by Holman »

Actually, what does happen to the military in Scotland? Will the new country lease the bases back to London?

I assume that the military hardware itself (planes, tanks, trucks, ships, shoes) remains UK property, as this is not *that* kind of independence fight.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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Holman wrote:Actually, what does happen to the military in Scotland? Will the new country lease the bases back to London?

I assume that the military hardware itself (planes, tanks, trucks, ships, shoes) remains UK property, as this is not *that* kind of independence fight.
There's a plan, but I don't recall the details. I did see it mentioned that Scottish people in the UK military will have the option to remain in the UK military, which had me scratching my head.

Citizenship, passports, military, it's all been addressed (perhaps not adequately) but unfortunately I didn't look that closely.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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At the end of it all, the resources that go into splitting everything out into a smaller, more fragile country are going to have a high opportunity cost of things that these industries and agencies could have done in the event that the vote goes for secession.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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I'm thinking if it flies in Scotland Quebec is ready for another go at it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... story.html
The twists and turns in the last two weeks of the Scottish referendum campaign have come as little surprise to Daniel Turp, a Quebec nationalist politician and academic who arrived in Edinburgh this week in the hope of witnessing the birth of a new state.
It is not just that Mr Turp was at the heart of the pro-independence campaign in Quebec in 1995 when the No side hung on for victory by just one per cent after a late Yes surge in the polls.
But in regular talks with leaders of the Scottish National Party, including Alex Salmond, Nicola Sturgeon and Angus Robertson, he said that he predicted much of the drama that has played out.
“The end of the Scottish campaign is absolutely déjà vu,” said Mr Turp, who was chief political advisor to Lucien Bouchard, the Bloc Quebecois leader in 1995, and later served as an MP in the provincial legislature.
He had warned the SNP to be wary of Unionists offering gifts if the polls narrowed. “I said that if they did well, there would be all sorts of late promises of more autonomy and more devolution,” he said. “And look what’s happening now. Ottawa did the same with us. But these promises are hollow. If Scotland votes No, they will be quickly forgotten.”
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Re: Scottish Independence?

Post by malchior »

Well today's the day - Here is a solid argument that David Cameron is really personally going to take a huge hit if Yes wins and a still likely take a decent hit if No wins. He underestimated the situation and could have avoided this whole thing had they just negotiated more power sharing with the SNP years ago. Having seen him talk in Parliament - couldn't happen to a smugger, douche-ier guy. ;)

Also, I spent some time last night reading Yes/No voters and what stuck with me is that there is a serious problem with the political structure in the UK. It feels very similar to our own where big money (especially finance) has disparate say in matters and the ordinary voter is very alienated. I know there are some who feel the two party system here and the mechanics in Congress are behind our awful political situation but we have a counterargument of a more 'representational' system that has on the surface similar flaws. The House of Lords throws that all out of whack obviously and it is far more complicated but there is something there to dig into I think.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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malchior wrote:Well today's the day - Here is a solid argument that David Cameron is really personally going to take a huge hit if Yes wins and a still likely take a decent hit if No wins. He underestimated the situation and could have avoided this whole thing had they just negotiated more power sharing with the SNP years ago. Having seen him talk in Parliament - couldn't happen to a smugger, douche-ier guy. ;)
Of course, "smug douchebag" is pretty much the job description of the British PM. It's written in their constitution. But Cameron will have a hard time if he goes down in history as "The man who lost Scotland."
Also, I spent some time last night reading Yes/No voters and what stuck with me is that there is a serious problem with the political structure in the UK. It feels very similar to our own where big money (especially finance) has disparate say in matters and the ordinary voter is very alienated. I know there are some who feel the two party system here and the mechanics in Congress are behind our awful political situation but we have a counterargument of a more 'representational' system that has on the surface similar flaws. The House of Lords throws that all out of whack obviously and it is far more complicated but there is something there to dig into I think.
Many people are seeing the independence movement as a reaction to British Labour's right turn under Tony Blair. Scots lean left, and they feel they've been without a legitimate Party for a long time.

It's kind of like if Occupy Wall Street combined itself with centuries of strong, obvious ethnic distinction from what they consider the political opposition.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

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Rip wrote:I'm thinking if it flies in Scotland Quebec is ready for another go at it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... story.html
The twists and turns in the last two weeks of the Scottish referendum campaign have come as little surprise to Daniel Turp, a Quebec nationalist politician and academic who arrived in Edinburgh this week in the hope of witnessing the birth of a new state.
It is not just that Mr Turp was at the heart of the pro-independence campaign in Quebec in 1995 when the No side hung on for victory by just one per cent after a late Yes surge in the polls.
But in regular talks with leaders of the Scottish National Party, including Alex Salmond, Nicola Sturgeon and Angus Robertson, he said that he predicted much of the drama that has played out.
“The end of the Scottish campaign is absolutely déjà vu,” said Mr Turp, who was chief political advisor to Lucien Bouchard, the Bloc Quebecois leader in 1995, and later served as an MP in the provincial legislature.
He had warned the SNP to be wary of Unionists offering gifts if the polls narrowed. “I said that if they did well, there would be all sorts of late promises of more autonomy and more devolution,” he said. “And look what’s happening now. Ottawa did the same with us. But these promises are hollow. If Scotland votes No, they will be quickly forgotten.”
Yeah, we're so ready we didn't elect the party that wants us to vote for indpendance.
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Re: Scottish Independence?

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Holman wrote: It's kind of like if Occupy Wall Street combined itself with centuries of strong, obvious ethnic distinction from what they consider the political opposition.
In that way, the date of the vote is quite apt. If Yes goes, I think all of Scotland will start to look like Zuccotti Park ca. Sept 18, 2011.

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Re: Scottish Independence?

Post by Roman »

Vorret wrote:Yeah we have the same problem here... when you ask the "hard" question, the separatist just dismiss them as "it won't be a problem".

Riiiight, if Quebec ever becomes independant, I'm GTFO , it's going to fail so hard and I don't want to be here when it happens.
The nasty side of me wants to see this. :snooty: Wah Wah Wah we are a distinct society and we want to separate. :snooty:

Oh ya - but can we still have access to currency, social services and all that other good stuff? :naughty:

Independence means exactly that - let them do it all on their own. Passports, currency, infrastructure etc etc etc. God I hate the French separatists sometimes - and I'm bilingual! :shock:

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