LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:26 am
A put is just the opposite of a call. With a call, you are buying the option, but not the obligation, to buy a stock at a certain price. With a put, you are buying the option, but not the obligation, to sell at a certain price. Requirements should be the same since neither requires margin and won't auto-exercise of your account can't cover the risk.
Implied volatility tends to affect them the same, meaning the higher the IV, the more expensive they get.
Yep, all of this. You shouldn't need a margin account for certain use cases of either calls or puts.
Generally the only put-dealing I do is after a covered call of mine gets exercised and I wouldn't mind getting those shares back at a discount. Generally any covered calls I sell are unlikely to be exercised, so I don't do puts often at all.
Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:34 am
Generally the only put-dealing I do is after a covered call of mine gets exercised and I wouldn't mind getting those shares back at a discount. Generally any covered calls I sell are unlikely to be exercised, so I don't do puts often at all.
I used to believe this. Last year was nuts though. There were more than a few things I put out for a 15%+ gain in less than a month that got swooped away from me. Good money was made... And better money made by the people buying off me. On the flip side I dumped all that money back in and I have a lot positions that aren't in black much less 40%+ in the black in a year's time any more. I'm OK with that. We'll see how OK I am when we do eventually hit that downturn. My covered call expiration/buy backs had been making almost $500 a month before taxes but now if something gets pulled from me, it'll be going into cash until such a time as I've rebuilt about two year's forecasted living expenses in cash/CDs. Or at least that's the plan for today.
Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:34 am
Generally the only put-dealing I do is after a covered call of mine gets exercised and I wouldn't mind getting those shares back at a discount. Generally any covered calls I sell are unlikely to be exercised, so I don't do puts often at all.
I used to believe this. Last year was nuts though. There were more than a few things I put out for a 15%+ gain in less than a month that got swooped away from me. Good money was made... And better money made by the people buying off me. On the flip side I dumped all that money back in and I have a lot positions that aren't in black much less 40%+ in the black in a year's time any more. I'm OK with that. We'll see how OK I am when we do eventually hit that downturn. My covered call expiration/buy backs had been making almost $500 a month before taxes but now if something gets pulled from me, it'll be going into cash until such a time as I've rebuilt about two year's forecasted living expenses in cash/CDs. Or at least that's the plan for today.
I don't mean gut feeling, I mean via something like Option Strategist's probability calculator. Generally I'll only sell calls if I feel the return is worthwhile and the chance of exercise is well below 20% via a calculator like OS's. At least, on stocks that I want to hold long-term.
Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:47 am
At least, on stocks that I want to hold long-term.
Learned my lesson on that the hard way. Stocks I don't want to part with, even when their valuation goes nuts, don't get covered calls any more. That lesson cost me several thousand dollars and was learned very well.
Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:47 am
At least, on stocks that I want to hold long-term.
Learned my lesson on that the hard way. Stocks I don't want to part with, even when their valuation goes nuts, don't get covered calls any more. That lesson cost me several thousand dollars and was learned very well.
The alternative is to hold a core position and then sell covered calls on the rest. Say you have 1,000 shares of XYZ, maybe just sell 5 contracts at a time.. If they get called away, wait to add more or move on but don't touch the remaining 500.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:47 am
At least, on stocks that I want to hold long-term.
Learned my lesson on that the hard way. Stocks I don't want to part with, even when their valuation goes nuts, don't get covered calls any more. That lesson cost me several thousand dollars and was learned very well.
One nice part is if you do end up in that boat, it's likely due to a meteoric rise, which will typically also raise IV on options, which will generally give you a high-priced put option to sell after your covered call blows up. Ask me how I know.
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:28 am
F is still my biggest single position and I may trim it here.
One of my bigger investing mistakes the past couple of years. I had held F for YEARS (at least since 2012, maybe earlier). Maybe bought around $11 or $12 originally, and bought on the way down. I think my avg was probably around $9 or $10 when I sold. Got a wild hair last summer, lost patience waiting for it to come back, and sold it all. It was a rare instance of me letting my emotions control my investments. I became impatient, pissed off, and probably convinced myself that the fundamentals had changed ("allowing" me to sell it ).
Sold at $7.4 in June 2020. OTOH, i collected more than $5K in divvies during the time I held it. Just hate missing out on a freaking DOUBLE.
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:28 am
F is still my biggest single position and I may trim it here.
One of my bigger investing mistakes the past couple of years. I had held F for YEARS (at least since 2012, maybe earlier). Maybe bought around $11 or $12 originally, and bought on the way down. I think my avg was probably around $9 or $10 when I sold. Got a wild hair last summer, lost patience waiting for it to come back, and sold it all. It was a rare instance of me letting my emotions control my investments. I became impatient, pissed off, and probably convinced myself that the fundamentals had changed ("allowing" me to sell it ).
Sold at $7.4 in June 2020. OTOH, i collected more than $5K in divvies during the time I held it. Just hate missing out on a freaking DOUBLE.
I reconsidered when they dropped the dividend but re-evaluated and still liked it.
Great note on thesis creep here [pdf from Maran Capital]
Trading firms have gambled heavily on natural gas produced and exported from the United States in recent years, signing long-term contracts to buy cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Some of the contracts run through 2041 and are mainly designed to export gas to Europe and Asia.
A bond prospectus published by Gunvor this week gave a rare glimpse into the size of its hedging operations, much of it related to gas and LNG. It showed the company's pre-sold or hedged inventories totalled $5.3 billion in June, up from $2.8 billion in 2018. Natural gas and LNG trading accounted for nearly half of its traded volumes for the period at about 45%.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
As I continue to build cash I still look every day. Several times a day at the market moving. This morning, SPY down by nearly $6 pre-market (over 1%). At lunch still down. At close it's up by $1.80. Crazy. I was all red at lunch and very red at that. Now all my tech heavy ETFs are so green they made the day into an up, which serves as reminder of how badly they can crash my portfolio, even if they don't drag everything else down with it.
/looks at the intraday for MFST, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL.
Trading firms have gambled heavily on natural gas produced and exported from the United States in recent years, signing long-term contracts to buy cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Some of the contracts run through 2041 and are mainly designed to export gas to Europe and Asia.
A bond prospectus published by Gunvor this week gave a rare glimpse into the size of its hedging operations, much of it related to gas and LNG. It showed the company's pre-sold or hedged inventories totalled $5.3 billion in June, up from $2.8 billion in 2018. Natural gas and LNG trading accounted for nearly half of its traded volumes for the period at about 45%.
I'm glad that energy traders still take risk management very seriously.
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:28 am
F is still my biggest single position and I may trim it here.
One of my bigger investing mistakes the past couple of years. I had held F for YEARS (at least since 2012, maybe earlier). Maybe bought around $11 or $12 originally, and bought on the way down. I think my avg was probably around $9 or $10 when I sold. Got a wild hair last summer, lost patience waiting for it to come back, and sold it all. It was a rare instance of me letting my emotions control my investments. I became impatient, pissed off, and probably convinced myself that the fundamentals had changed ("allowing" me to sell it ).
Sold at $7.4 in June 2020. OTOH, i collected more than $5K in divvies during the time I held it. Just hate missing out on a freaking DOUBLE.
Breaks the $15 plane this morning and is still going up. I'm still shocked. I also see the GM is now trying to cash in and investors are buying what Mary Barra is selling. F is a mystery to me. GM downright boggles the imagination. It wasn't even a full year ago they were fighting BEV tooth and nail to appease the President of the United States' war on California emissions standards. And now inventors are falling all over themselves to state GM are leaders in the BEV future. F at least had been putting up over the last decade. They just haven't been putting out. GM? Put out... the Volt and Bolt primarily as vanity pieces with a literal commitment to do nothing else. CNBC was also fawning over the wisdom of TESLA actually announcing what we knew all along. HQ is moving to Elon's new "I've taken the Red Pill" home but then tried to distance himself from Abbott.
At least is makes my portfolio look good short term. *shrug*.
LordMortis wrote: ↑Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:35 am
HQ is moving to Elon's new "I've taken the Red Pill" home but then tried to distance himself from Abbott.
Still can't buy a damn Tesla in Texas, but sure move your HQ here for the tax breaks,
Yeah, the 'don't mess with Tesla' belt they showed off at the shareholder meeting yesterday was kind of gross, given that Texas is certainly messing with Tesla still.
That said, it's non-news. Been in the works and known for a year now, doesn't impact planned Fremont or Austin employment much (both will and always were going to be hiring as many bodies as their available space allows).
Sure would be nice of Texas to get their heads out of their asses on multiple fronts, though.
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:28 am
F is still my biggest single position and I may trim it here.
One of my bigger investing mistakes the past couple of years. I had held F for YEARS (at least since 2012, maybe earlier). Maybe bought around $11 or $12 originally, and bought on the way down. I think my avg was probably around $9 or $10 when I sold. Got a wild hair last summer, lost patience waiting for it to come back, and sold it all. It was a rare instance of me letting my emotions control my investments. I became impatient, pissed off, and probably convinced myself that the fundamentals had changed ("allowing" me to sell it ).
Sold at $7.4 in June 2020. OTOH, i collected more than $5K in divvies during the time I held it. Just hate missing out on a freaking DOUBLE.
Breaks the $15 plane this morning and is still going up. I'm still shocked. I also see the GM is now trying to cash in and investors are buying what Mary Barra is selling. F is a mystery to me. GM downright boggles the imagination. It wasn't even a full year ago they were fighting BEV tooth and nail to appease the President of the United States' war on California emissions standards.
I still hold GM that I bought over the years, and like you said, it's also done well (also doubled in the past year). I love the PEG ratio of .62!
Who has some solid investment ideas for inflation or stagflation?
Financials maybe?
Energy?
I'm leaning C (Citi) here, but not sure. I hold a LITTLE bit of RF (Regions Financial) in a non tax advantaged account, but that's it in terms of banks and such. I got spooked by an article some time ago warning off all financials due to the coming credit default swap hit (but for commercial real estate this time, not residential). I mean, it could still happen, but I should probably try to find that article and update my thinking based on the reality of the situation today.
Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:26 pm
Who has some solid investment ideas for inflation or stagflation?
Financials maybe?
Energy?
I'm leaning C (Citi) here, but not sure. I hold a LITTLE bit of RF (Regions Financial) in a non tax advantaged account, but that's it in terms of banks and such. I got spooked by an article some time ago warning off all financials due to the coming credit default swap hit (but for commercial real estate this time, not residential). I mean, it could still happen, but I should probably try to find that article and update my thinking based on the reality of the situation today.
Basically if you can get in on newly released bond with a good interest rate. I've yet to find the mojo for that. I got nothing. All I'm doing is increasing my cash and trying to prepare for the pain of riding out the rest. I'm up to about 5 months living expenses in Cash on hand. I have another 9 months living expenses in maturing CDs. Then it's a gamble on how much cash is generated by security Divy's and covered calls between that start of drawdown and those 14 months set aside before selling off what I own. In the meantime all I am doing is building cash to endure the idea that what I have ain't enough.
Energy and Fintech (not financials) is what the talking heads are all saying but they are saying you also need to be a picker. The sectors aren't the place to be but rather knowing the sectors is what you need to understand to move in to. Knowing who to get in to and then when to get out is too much for me. I'm a buy and hold guy.
pr0ner wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 4:36 pm
I know F is a big deal around these parts, and I finally jumped aboard the train yesterday.
Good timing, too, as there are rumblings that investors are excited regarding what they're seeing from them.
F being my biggest non ETF position, I follow them. I don't get it, but I like it. If I didn't have covered calls I'd have considered trimming when they hit $15.
pr0ner wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 4:36 pm
I know F is a big deal around these parts, and I finally jumped aboard the train yesterday.
Good timing, too, as there are rumblings that investors are excited regarding what they're seeing from them.
F being my biggest non ETF position, I follow them. I don't get it, but I like it. If I didn't have covered calls I'd have considered trimming when they hit $15.
I'm not sure what there is not to get about their massive incoming EV investments.
pr0ner wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 4:41 pm
I'm not sure what there is not to get about their massive incoming EV investments.
They have been throwing billions at EVs for some time now with very little move forward. All the money has never suggested to me they are ahead of curve. In the game, yes. Ahead, not so much. To me that says they're no better off now than they were at their $17 per share level when they were at peak profitability and paying back shareholders.
It's not their investment EV or their results that seem to be driving their price, but rather their ability to stay in the news about it.
Still, I'm happy.
Edit: If you recall, F was the one resisting the Trump war on California environmental controls, rebuilt the Detroit Grand Central for EV dev, were first to market with the SUV Hybrid (the Escape), put five billion in to RIVIAN. I've been watching it all and for a lot longer.
pr0ner wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 4:41 pm
I'm not sure what there is not to get about their massive incoming EV investments.
They have been throwing billions at EVs for some time now with very little move forward. All the money has never suggested to me they are ahead of curve. In the game, yes. Ahead, not so much. To me that says they're no better off now than they were at their $17 per share level when they were at peak profitability and paying back shareholders.
It's not their investment EV or their results that seem to be driving their price, but rather their ability to stay in the news about it.
Still, I'm happy.
Amazing things can happen when there's a new CEO with a firm drive to making EV happen for Ford.
Carpet_pissr wrote:Who has some solid investment ideas for inflation or stagflation?
Financials maybe?
Energy?
I'm leaning C (Citi) here, but not sure. I hold a LITTLE bit of RF (Regions Financial) in a non tax advantaged account, but that's it in terms of banks and such. I got spooked by an article some time ago warning off all financials due to the coming credit default swap hit (but for commercial real estate this time, not residential). I mean, it could still happen, but I should probably try to find that article and update my thinking based on the reality of the situation today.
I would strongly recommend against Citi. They got absolutely hammered in the '08 crash. I don't think they manage risk well at all and they were massively overexposed to the fraud going on with CDS' s.
FWIW, I thought the same as you going into that mess (that the banks would come out smelling like a rose) and realized after taking a bath on BofA that there is way too much risk (and outright FRAUD) in that sector which isn't transparent or priced in. Even after the bailouts and recovery, C is still way underwater from then. They had to do a ten to one stock contraction just to stay listed as I recall.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
I remember picking up some BoA shares back then for something crazy, like $4-$5? Maybe even lower. IIRC sold around $20, not sure why I didn't just hold it. :/ At $20, it most likely was well out of the danger zone it was in sub $5.
Carpet_pissr wrote:I remember picking up some BoA shares back then for something crazy, like $4-$5? Maybe even lower. IIRC sold around $20, not sure why I didn't just hold it. :/ At $20, it most likely was well out of the danger zone it was in sub $5.
Yeah, BofA has bounced back the best from the crash, and yet they are basically where they were before it happened after 14 years.
Citi still isn't.
If you think that another shock is coming, I wouldn't bet on either. Of course, that shock may have been last year (looked like corporate debt bubble was huge), but the bailout did very well at covering that weakness.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Carpet_pissr wrote:I remember picking up some BoA shares back then for something crazy, like $4-$5? Maybe even lower. IIRC sold around $20, not sure why I didn't just hold it. :/ At $20, it most likely was well out of the danger zone it was in sub $5.
Yeah, BofA has bounced back the best from the crash, and yet they are basically where they were before it happened after 14 years.
Citi still isn't.
If you think that another shock is coming, I wouldn't bet on either. Of course, that shock may have been last year (looked like corporate debt bubble was huge), but the bailout did very well at covering that weakness.
Yeah Citi is like a zombie bank. Too big to fail, too weak to break up or improve, and just lumbers on as a commercial entity. The best play in the banking sector probably still is JPM by a lot. You'll never get it at a discount but it is well-managed, solvent, and was one of the few players that got stronger due to 2008. It also benefitted greatly riding the wave taking advantage of loose monetary policy meant to stop other weaker players from collapsing.
Taking money from Qanons this morning with DWAC. It's what I call contentious investing.
$12-$15 and then $14.70-$19.50.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
Pyperkub wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:20 amIf you think that another shock is coming, I wouldn't bet on either.
I’m trying to hedge against inflation/stagflation, not an acute hit to the banking system. Would never buy banks if I thought that was coming (and hopefully wouldn’t act on anything in terms of investing unless I KNEW something like that was coming).
Carpet_pissr wrote:I remember picking up some BoA shares back then for something crazy, like $4-$5? Maybe even lower. IIRC sold around $20, not sure why I didn't just hold it. :/ At $20, it most likely was well out of the danger zone it was in sub $5.
Yeah, BofA has bounced back the best from the crash, and yet they are basically where they were before it happened after 14 years.
Citi still isn't.
If you think that another shock is coming, I wouldn't bet on either. Of course, that shock may have been last year (looked like corporate debt bubble was huge), but the bailout did very well at covering that weakness.
I bought COF at $12 in 2009(ish?), it's running around $170 these days. It's not TSLA territory but in banking terms it's nice.
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:07 am
Taking money from Qanons this morning with DWAC. It's what I call contentious investing.
$12-$15 and then $14.70-$19.50.
Please explain.
Might not just be Qanons, probably lots of WSB too.
DWAC is the SPAC acquiring Trump's new media company. Which consists of a non existent social media platform and a non-existent news network. The only explanation for the rip is Trump faithful and, now probably, WSB pumpage.
My third trade in this is in at $19.10. Currently trading at $24.15.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:07 am
Taking money from Qanons this morning with DWAC. It's what I call contentious investing.
$12-$15 and then $14.70-$19.50.
I thought about right at open around $11. I don't really have any gambling money at this point, when I'm looking for an exit from work. I was going to get in and out.
Pyperkub wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:20 amIf you think that another shock is coming, I wouldn't bet on either.
I’m trying to hedge against inflation/stagflation, not an acute hit to the banking system. Would never buy banks if I thought that was coming (and hopefully wouldn’t act on anything in terms of investing unless I KNEW something like that was coming).
For me tho, the investing lesson I learned from '08 is that, as a non-banker, I don't have enough visibility into the risk, and a lot of that risk is due to shady practices being covered up. That really hasn't been fixed and I'm not certain if that risk is actually being priced in appropriately.
As such, I've just decided to stay away from that sector entirely, and gravitate towards the stuff I know better, and can get better insight into - most of my larger positions are in Tech/Entertainment/Retail (Costco, not retail in general).
What I really want to throw some money at is CFS (Commonwealth Fusion Systems) as a long term investment. Haven't figured out how to do it yet.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:07 am
Taking money from Qanons this morning with DWAC. It's what I call contentious investing.
$12-$15 and then $14.70-$19.50.
Please explain.
Might not just be Qanons, probably lots of WSB too.
DWAC is the SPAC acquiring Trump's new media company. Which consists of a non existent social media platform and a non-existent news network. The only explanation for the rip is Trump faithful and, now probably, WSB pumpage.
My third trade in this is in at $19.10. Currently trading at $24.15.
If WSB is involved, they're being very quiet about it. No specific threads, and a search says stuff might be buried in their daily thread, but that's too full of insanity to try to sort through.
Gong to hang on to some of it on the hunch that a lot of the faithful don't have quick access trading accounts and will be getting in in the coming days.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
This is getting into "people may be betting the house" territory which is less comfortable.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:18 pm
Halted again up 240% at $33.94.
This is getting into "people may be betting the house" territory which is less comfortable.
The halt didn't last long. Just broke through $37.
Sold 40% at $47, remaining shares are free. Will see where this one goes (memories of KOSS haunting me).
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
).
OTOH, i collected more than $5K in divvies during the time I held it. Just hate missing out on a freaking DOUBLE.
I mean, it could still happen, but I should probably try to find that article and update my thinking based on the reality of the situation today.
