[WW] Crimson Moon III - Game ends in a Draw?

[Newcastle]

/carefully makes a drawing of Mr. Bubbles, and gets it placed on milk cartons, makes tshirts that says "Dont Pop me, i am Missing...Mr. Bubbles".

Uhm, not sure what we should do guys. I think he was last on Sept 30 if Austins info is to be believed. I really would like his input in the game...but i much rather everything be good with him first and foremost (in real life that is).

[Silky]

So is this a draw?

[Zurai]

I'm in favor of ending this one way or the other. Call it a draw, or continue as if Bubbles just doesn't want to participate; we do still have enough people to make a majority vote. I'd like the game to end rather than just drift off and starve to death.

[Unagi]

I don't think it's realistic to 'play on' as if he was just silent.

[Zurai]

I've done that in another game, actually. Drazzil "dissapeared" for a week and came back at the exact crucial moment to win the game for the village :rolleyes:

[Grundbegriff]

If Bubbles doesn't turn up, I think the moderator of the game should replace him with a lurker (if one can be found). Since Bubbles wasn't deeply engaged in the thread, the impact should be small enough that it won't affect the outcome, regardless of whether he was fair or fur.

[Austin]

OoooooooooooOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooooo!:binky:

[triggercut]

I dunno, I think this is over. Last activity was on September 30, and it's now the 18th of October.

Dammit, too. I'd laid a (probably futile, but fun) trap of sorts to try to snare the two (did I just say "two"? Yes, I did...) remaining wolves, too.

[Chaosraven]

Perhaps all living players would be kind enough to send me a PM with answers regarding:

Replacing Bubbles
Playing without him
Ending the game
Continuing to delay the game waiting for him

Dead players are allowed to do the same, but I want to weigh the considerations of the active living players.

[Zurai]

Any decision, CR?

[triggercut]

Man. You're tricky, I'll give you that! To trot out the football references, you're half Gale Sayers slipping in and out of grasp, and the other half you're like Dan Marino or Dan Fouts (or Jimmy Hart, for us oldtimers) picking targets in posts and hitting 'em with lasers.

Anyway, if I was "attacking" you, I apologize. Expect a little vehemence when you attempt to spoof the role of a villager. I was rather blindsided by it. That said, I meant to show that your absence in the thread during the Austin discussions contrasted versus my participation should be considered by my fellow villagers in rooting out the wolf between you and I.

It's a shame that this never finished.

I knew Zurai was spoofing my role as Coroner, but I was sort of tapped out for a way to prove it. I also knew that Remus was innocent (oh yeah, baby, I lied about that scan result...) and wanted to find a way to maybe trap Newcastle or Bubbles into giving something away so we could figure our third wolf.

Problem is: if I lied about my scan result, I'd need a way to prove it later on.

So I hid my actual scan result in a cipher, a cipher where I gave the result of my scan almost a day before Zurai and I simultaneously "revealed" our results. The above-quoted post is where it starts. If you have some spare time, have fun with it.

[triggercut]

I think we can find the clues we need by looking at Remus.

Look for: cunning dissembling, superior math, maybe misdirection besides.

In other words, "Look for: CIPHERS" (The first letter is the first letter in the first word, the second is the second letter in the second word, and so on.)

[Grundbegriff]

Too much work.

[Chaosraven]

It would appear I have as much likelihood of getting a majority decision about the game from the living players and there is of the living players getting a Majority Vote accomplished within the game.

[Austin]

I gave you my opinion. What else could you want?

[Chaosraven]

I gave you my opinion. What else could you want?

Munich

[Zurai]

Alright, seems this game is officially dead, whether CR wants to declare it so or not. So, here's a stake for its heart.

The Roles, as far as I'm aware:

Wolves:
Austin
Zurai
Newcastle

Seer:
tru1cy

Priest:
Unagi

[Grundbegriff]

That's not correct.

[Zurai]

That's not correct.

Say what?

[Remus West]

That's not correct.

Say what?

It matches what I know and if you add triggercut as the Coroner you have the full list. Or does Grundbegriff still think I was a wolf?

[Grundbegriff]

That's not correct.

Say what?

It matches what I know and if you add triggercut as the Coroner you have the full list. Or does Grundbegriff still think I was a wolf?

It's not correct-- in the social sense-- to out everyone without Chaosraven's OK. In fact, he should've been induced to do it.

No, Remus. I had spoilers from early on, so I knew you were no Wolf, and knew triggercut had played very well.

I'll say this, though: after two rather shaky attempts at playing the Badguy, Remus finally did an outstanding job here in supporting the agenda and interests of the Wolf side at every turn. Third time's a charm!

[Remus West]

That's not correct.

Say what?

It matches what I know and if you add triggercut as the Coroner you have the full list. Or does Grundbegriff still think I was a wolf?

It's not correct-- in the social sense-- to out everyone without Chaosraven's OK. In fact, he should've been induced to do it.

No, Remus. I had spoilers from early on, so I knew you were no Wolf, and knew triggercut had played very well.

I'll say this, though: after two rather shaky attempts at playing the Badguy, Remus finally did an outstanding job here in supporting the agenda and interests of the Wolf side at every turn. Third time's a charm!

In my defense if you look back I got condemned because I believed in the Lassr thing. A thing I started. A thing I was then asked to consider as completely wrong without being given any new information while triggercut operated on inside information. The deductions he made during the second round when Austin first came forward and BEFORE Unagi came forward were not well founded for a villager to make as they ignored the possibility we had gotten a wolf in Lassr. I had no way of knowing we did not yet got condemned for believing in my actions from the day before AND asking that a Seer claimant be given time to be proven false or innocent.

Then I had the stupidity to point out the possibility that Unagi was lying. I even pointed out how slight that possibility was but that did not matter, I got condemned for it.

Besides, I have always been good at killing a village when given time.

[Grundbegriff]

On the plus side, nobody can say you don't consider all the possible scenarios.

[Austin]

We had a shot, but I don't think it was going anywhere either. I'd have preferred Chaos to end it but I'm not losing sleep over it. I can open up the wolf forums if people want. Lots of cheers for Remus there!

[Newcastle]

guess the cat's out of the bag. To be perfectly honest, i could not for the life of me try to set up Bubbles here to take the fall this round, which i would think was the only way things were going to shake out. He was not here to defend himself. I dont think triggercut would have been a viable target, although it did look as if Proner was shakinga bit in his belief in Triggercuts status.

I hate to say it, but when bubbles disappeared it offered us as bad guys no recourse and effectively locked the game up. I dont mean to say this meanly, since I am sure something has happened to him..and i wish him the best....but any tactics we might have tried, would have had to have taken advantage of his absence. I could easily do that while he was keeping his low profile, but once his extended absence kicked in, we could do nothing about it. At least from my perspective. I really could kick a man while he is down already. Which trying to frame him would essnetially have been.

Remus you did help a lot. You took a lot of the heavy lifting for us during certain parts, and you had me in fits of giggles. I do have to say, your arguments did make sense. If I were a villager, i would have seen what you were saying. So there is some fault in the vilalgers there who were consumed with bloodlust.

Triggercut. You played a fine game, a very fine game. You had us worried for a bit, and when you did your analysis early in the game, you had the whole wolf pack taken aback, and we started to refer to it as your "superanalysis"? Because you had been able to winnow the field of potential wolves to such a small quantity. however, i will say you were in a blood fued with Remus, and you really should have taken a step back to see the whole picture.

I would have been utmostly curious to see how this would have played out. It's a shame we have to view it as a draw, (in the game sense of course...and positive vibes toward the bubbles); because i would have been very curious to see how it would have played out in the final 2 days.

Very fun guys, very fun. I had an utmost blast playing it, and truly enjoyed it.

[Newcastle]

up there, i meant to say " i really could NOT kick a man while he is down"

[Lassr]

I had hinted at my role early in the game before I was lynched. I was hoping the coroner (or whatever the hell he was called in this game) would catch it.

I was the ditch digger. I stated in one post that I would vote for myself so I could DIG my own grave. Then a few later I said I had to DITCH the game for the day. A wasted effort.

I was so hoping triggercut would catch it to help prove his case then he came back with the Remus was a wolf ploy and then I thought what the hell does it matter now. Like to know what his plan was on the Remus switcheroo.

[Austin]

I had hinted at my role early in the game before I was lynched. I was hoping the coroner (or whatever the hell he was called in this game) would catch it.

I was the ditch digger. I stated in one post that I would vote for myself so I could DIG my own grave. Then a few later I said I had to DITCH the game for the day. A wasted effort.

I was so hoping triggercut would catch it to help prove his case then he came back with the Remus was a wolf ploy and then I thought what the hell does it matter now. Like to know what his plan was on the Remus switcheroo.

Yeah we started cheering on Trigg towards the end.

[Chaosraven]

Ah well.

To: Austin
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:37 pm
Subject: CRIMSON III
You are the Carpenter, you build the shelves.

YOU ARE ALSO A WOLF. you are allowed to communicate by PM with
Zurai
Newcastle
At Night you and your partners must choose a NonWolf victim whose role will be revealed to you after he dies.

To: Zurai
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:38 pm
Subject: CRIMSON III Edit message
You are the Candlestickmaker. you make the wax lights

YOU ARE ALSO A WOLF. you are allowed to communicate by PM with
Austin
Newcastle
At Night you and your partners must choose a NonWolf victim whose role will be revealed to you after he dies.

To: Newcastle
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:39 pm
Subject: CRIMSON III Edit message
You are the Blacksmith. you repair the Pots and Pans

YOU ARE ALSO A WOLF. you are allowed to communicate by PM with
Austin
Zurai
At Night you and your partners must choose a NonWolf victim whose role will be revealed to you after he dies.

To: tru1cy
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:41 pm
Subject: CRIMSON III Edit message
You are the SEER.
Each Night, you choose to either:
SCAN a living Player as Wolf/NonWolf
CONTACT a living Player the following Day.
If you or your Target are Killed, there will be no result.
If you CONTACT a player that survives the Night, you and the Target will be notified that you may PM each other without restriction until Majority of Votes has been reached that Day.

To: Unagi
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:42 pm
Subject: CRIMSON III Edit message
Most Holy, you have been called as the village PRIEST.
Each Day, you will be given the role of one Regular Normal Villager. This will be determined Randomly, and may include Living, Dead, and even those you may already have Known

To: triggercut
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:43 pm
Subject: CRIMSON III Edit message
You are the Coroner.
Each NIGHT you may choose a Dead Player to Identify, you will be give their Role in the game.

To: pr0ner
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:44 pm
Subject: CRIMSON III Edit message
You are the Butcher, you slice the Mutton

To: Lassr
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:45 pm
Subject: CRIMSON III Edit message
You are the Ditchdigger, you remove the Dirt

To: Remus West
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:45 pm
Subject: CRIMSON III
You are the Baker, you make the Buns

To: Grundbegriff
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:46 pm
Subject: CRIMSON III Edit message
You are the Painter, you make the portraits

To: Mr Bubbles
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:46 pm
Subject: CRIMSON III Edit message
You are the Poet, you compose the odes

To: Silky
Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:47 pm
Subject: CRIMSON III Edit message
You are the Thatcher, you fix the roof

The main reason I did not wish to end this game without real resolution was the living players.

Don't know what to do, don't know what to do.

This I know: Zurai or Triggercut are wolves.

If Zurai is right, and he's the coroner, killing Zurai ends the game in the wolves favor.

If Triggercut is right, and he's the coroner, killing him at least gives us another chance.

We know Austin was wolf.

Remus we're 50-50 on.

If Zurai is right, the final two wolves are Triggercut and one of Newcastle and Mr. Bubbles (I'd lean Bubbles in this case, since he's so damn quiet).

If Triggercut is right, Zurai is the final wolf and it's game over.

Someone gets tested tonight. And since the game is guaranteed to go on if we go after Triggercut, I'm leaning that way just to be safe.

But I really don't know right now.

Zurai - Wolf
Newcastle - Wolf
Mr Bubbles - MIA Innocent
pr0ner - Non-Swing Vote
triggercut - Coroner

Obviously the 2 wolves aren't willing to vote against each other.
triggercut is 100% positive that Zurai is NOT the Coroner and therefore a Wolf.

But if pr0ner and triggercut vote against Zurai
while Zurai and Newcastle vote against (triggercut, pr0ner) then Mr Bubbles is the Swing Vote

Stalemate.

And all they have to do is Pile On the Vote as soon as pr0ner or Mr Bubbles vote for anyone other than a Wolf to win.

Meanwhile, if Zurai hangs, the Village loses pr0ner, Mr Bubbles, or triggercut and has one last chance for the vote to get Newcastle.

With that much hanging in the balance, I did not wish to put anyone in the position of (fillin Loginname to replace Remus)cide.

Hell, I couldn't even get a response out of one of the remaining four players as to what should be done!

So I let it sit, hoping Mr Bubbles would return, as the Game pretty much hinged on his Vote.

[Remus West]

Damn it. You people misuse the Remuscide term so often. It is not the act of costing the village the game with one badly placed vote. It takes many days worth of badly placed votes in a row for it to truely be Remuscide. Any idiot can make a single bad mistake. It takes a true disciple to make 6 or 7 straight.

[Unagi]

I was pleased to find out that my next scans would have been:
Day3 - pr0ner again
Day4 - Grundbegriff
Day5 - Silky again

[triggercut]

Ah, we're on postmortem.

I was indeed the Coroner, as stated before.

I tried to lay low the first day, as much as possible. On Day 2, knowing Lassr's innocence and seeing that tru1cy was also an innocent by means of his own demise, I was able to deduce Austin as one of our wolves.

I tried to present that evidence without giving away my role, and I'll admit, the logic was a little shaky, but it absolutely depended on the wolves not being willing to throw one of their own under the bus on Day 1. I absolutely thought that would never happen, and so did everyone else...

...except Remus and Zurai. Zurai I suspected all along, but Remus was the one leading that fight. He at first suggested that the analysis was flawed because Lassr might've been a wolf, but then even after we stopped debating that (basically accepting Lassr's innocence as a given) he continued to defend Austin's innocence. I couldn't figure that out, because given the absolutes of tru1cy and Lassr's innocence, and given that their votes made me think pr0ner and Unagi were also innocent, Austin basically had an incredibly high statistical probability of being a wolf, no matter how you slice it. Unagi's reveal sealed the deal in my eyes and in everyone else's...

....except Remus's. He questioned Unagi's veracity, he questioned the attacks on Austin...it was about as wolfy a play as I could possibly imagine. So, instead of building a case on Zurai, I went after Remus instead, because surely no innocent villager could possibly so vehemently defend the wolves in such a fashion as to lead to the "outing" of not one, but two different "roled" villagers. But yeah, Remus did that.

More on the misdirection in a bit.

[Austin]

I'm interested in your misdirection and we suspected you were the Coroner but laying a trap. However I think that trap would have bit you on the butt. To trun around and say, uhhh... I was lying about Remus when Zurai had the right of it from the start would have become a tough well I think. Especially since Newcastle had done well to protect himself. You did have all three of us pegged early on though iirc.

[Remus West]

Ah, we're on postmortem.

I was indeed the Coroner, as stated before.

I tried to lay low the first day, as much as possible. On Day 2, knowing Lassr's innocence and seeing that tru1cy was also an innocent by means of his own demise, I was able to deduce Austin as one of our wolves.

I tried to present that evidence without giving away my role, and I'll admit, the logic was a little shaky, but it absolutely depended on the wolves not being willing to throw one of their own under the bus on Day 1. I absolutely thought that would never happen, and so did everyone else...

...except Remus and Zurai. Zurai I suspected all along, but Remus was the one leading that fight. He at first suggested that the analysis was flawed because Lassr might've been a wolf, but then even after we stopped debating that (basically accepting Lassr's innocence as a given) he continued to defend Austin's innocence. I couldn't figure that out, because given the absolutes of tru1cy and Lassr's innocence, and given that their votes made me think pr0ner and Unagi were also innocent, Austin basically had an incredibly high statistical probability of being a wolf, no matter how you slice it. Unagi's reveal sealed the deal in my eyes and in everyone else's...

....except Remus's. He questioned Unagi's veracity, he questioned the attacks on Austin...it was about as wolfy a play as I could possibly imagine. So, instead of building a case on Zurai, I went after Remus instead, because surely no innocent villager could possibly so vehemently defend the wolves in such a fashion as to lead to the "outing" of not one, but two different "roled" villagers. But yeah, Remus did that.

More on the misdirection in a bit.

You are still operating on the mindset that everyone had the same information as you. I did not, therefore Lassr's innocence was by no means absolute. That was my entire issue with the thing. You used faulty logic to build the initial case then came after me aggro for not buying into it when the corner stone of your idea was that I had been wrong on the first day. It was an idea I was willing to look at but one I was not going to just accept without some form of verification or idea that accepting it would give us more information to work with as a test. You were offering neither. And when you say everyone else's eyes you are just plain wrong. Others have said they understood and saw the same holes in your "logic" I was seeing. My fault was not in seeing those holes but in being bullheaded about talking about them.

[triggercut]

]You are still operating on the mindset that everyone had the same information as you. I did not, therefore Lassr's innocence was by no means absolute.

Understood, but after the first page of about a dozen we weren't (and most notably *you* weren't) even arguing that point any further, which made it look as if, like everyone else, you'd accepted it as a given.

[triggercut]

I'm interested in your misdirection and we suspected you were the Coroner but laying a trap. However I think that trap would have bit you on the butt. To trun around and say, uhhh... I was lying about Remus when Zurai had the right of it from the start would have become a tough well I think. Especially since Newcastle had done well to protect himself. You did have all three of us pegged early on though iirc.

The misdrection was a trap, and just a small one, hoping to trip up Newcastle or Zurai or Mr. Bubbles into claiming the wrong profession for themselvees. Or just to try to get the non-Zurai wolf to give up some information to help us out.

As for "selling" the deception, I had that covered too. As stated upthread, I "hid" the actual scan result much earlier in a few posts above it in a cipher.

Guess I should reveal the Triggercut Code, huh?

The key to the thing starts with this paragraph:

"Man. You're tricky, I'll give you that! To trot out the football references, you're half Gale Sayers slipping in and out of grasp, and the other half you're like Dan Marino or Dan Fouts (or Jimmy Hart, for us oldtimers) picking targets in posts and hitting 'em with lasers. "

"Half Gale Sayers" (who wore #40) gets you to page 20.
Dan Marino wore 13, Dan Fouts wore 14, and Jim Hart wore 17. Those are the relevent posts.

From post 13:

"Basically, the Appropriate villagers Know that Everything should Ride on this next vote."

Yep, Remus was a Baker. I used a simple cipher using the first letter of every other word.

And in post 14 (using a different simple cipher where the last letter in each line is part of the code)

As it stands, I'll patiently wait for ZuraI.

I want to share with the village what I know, but I won't give in to that temptatioN.

I'm just getting some busywork done here at work, but will head home to check back here sooN.

...and post 17:

BingO!

Bah. I thought maybe I'd catch Zurai still on, etC.

This is tougher than I thought, coordinating a timE.

It could be a while before I'm on agaiN...

When should we try to be on again nexT?

[Austin]

Neat. Personally I'd do my best to spin that back against you as if you were a wolf leaving a trail to go back on in case plan A failed. Would have been neat to see how it turned out though.

[Unagi]

Wow.
I'd have um, never in a million years found that.

[Newcastle]

WOW trigger, simply wow, that is one helluva code. Just for folks eidification..if i would have survived the days lynch, i probably would ahve taken out Triggercut at night...and let it be a showdown of bubbles v. myself. I was confident that in such a scenario i would be able to convince proner that bubbles should be voted out. Well, that will never play out...and i hoep that bubbles does check in at some point....and everything is kosher with him.

[Silky]

Good game wolves and villagers. Its a shame it had to end this way but it is for the best. Here is to hoping Mr. Bubbles is alright.