Controlled Kaos--The Spies Attack! [KAOS wins!]

[Grundbegriff]

Someone just posted and then deleted the post. We had a page 57 for a moment, but when I clicked on it, it vanished and we were capped at 56.

[Newcastle]

wasnt me.


Grund - i am not sold on CR being larabee, more of the mind that Buckshot was. Anyway, why are you sold on CR being larabee?

I think Buckshot was larabee because before night 2 came, he made a post about larabee scanning and who it should be. this was prior to his conversion and made me think that Bakshot was indeed larabee.

[Austin]

Someone just posted and then deleted the post. We had a page 57 for a moment, but when I clicked on it, it vanished and we were capped at 56.

That happens sometimes, and I'm not sure why. Pretty sure it's a glitch in the Matrix rather than hijinx.

[Grundbegriff]

Grund - i am not sold on CR being larabee, more of the mind that Buckshot was. Anyway, why are you sold on CR being larabee?

I don't know if "sold" is the word I'd use, but I do think it's the most likely scenario. All else being equal, the tactically sound play for KAOS at that point was to kill a known. Chaosraven was not a known, and is usually left alive when innocent because (like me) he's a suspicion-magnet.

They chose Chaosraven. This demands explanation, as you rightly point out. Broadly speaking, there are only two possibly explanations:

(1) they wanted to kill him rather than a known to reap some benefit worth more to them than the death of a known.

(2) they had to kill him.

I can't think of anything at all that satisfies (1). On the other hand, the cricket noises when stessier called for Larabee to step up gives me a very simple, elegant scenario consistent with (2). So I think (2) is probably the truth. Lassr and Remus West arrived at the same conclusion independently of me and of one another, and that also tends to reinforce it for me.

I know your post mentioned some possible (1) scenarios, but they all have to do with framing. The problem with those scenarios is that framing seldom works. As you point out, Chaosraven's death could be taken as X framing Y for nearly any value of X and nearly any value of Y. Why would KAOS throw away a chance to kill a known in exchange for a chance at ambiguously framing everybody by killing someone inherently suspicious-by-day?

That's my thinking. If Bakhtosh was Larabee, I'm not sure why Chaosraven died.

I think Buckshot was larabee because before night 2 came, he made a post about larabee scanning and who it should be. this was prior to his conversion and made me think that Bakshot was indeed larabee.

Couldn't he have been a Redshirt leaving fake breadcrumbs? He wouldn't have known at that point that he'd be changing alignment later that night.

[Grundbegriff]

Someone just posted and then deleted the post. We had a page 57 for a moment, but when I clicked on it, it vanished and we were capped at 56.

That happens sometimes, and I'm not sure why. Pretty sure it's a glitch in the Matrix rather than hijinx.

Thanks, O Ghost of Cruises Past!

[Remus West]

Look at our situation right now. Had they killed a known night 3 we would be left with 5 unknown players rather than 4 and 1 known. Imagine if the grenade had landed on one of us rather than pr0ner. Then they leave us 3 unknowns and 2 knowns at this stage and tomorrow would have been 2 unknowns and 1 known if we miss today. Kaos took a huge risk by killing Chaosraven. Imagine if the entire player pool was unknown at this point, that is the possibility they passed on. The only reason I can see them risking that is if Chaosraven were Larabee.

[Newcastle]

I am gonna have to go with Grund.

Best i got so far.

[Grundbegriff]

I am gonna have to go with Grund.

Best i got so far.

Your best means we lose. I had hoped that wasn't your goal.

[Grundbegriff]

Since you're here, would you mind explaining why you're voting against me? After all we've discussed and examined, I think it would be a good idea to have your current thinking on record.

[Newcastle]

sure thing - basically everything that i have said before. All those posts that I have indicated such. Yeah you have answered back..but i am still not convinced. It's just all those things add up. You're my #1 suspect pretty much. Sorry Grund if i am wrong though.

[Grundbegriff]

Hmmm

[Remus West]

After working it around in my mind today I do not think I am going to vote Grundbegriff just yet. I think it comes down to Newcastle and Grundbegriff but I can not see voting Grund right now mostly because I can not get the idea of that "Bahktosh's slip" out of my head. I have been trying to think about how folks on the Kaos team had to have reacted to the Scoop/tru1cy claims and what happened during that time. I'm going to go check that out and see what is there. It should hopefully give me enough to finally pick a vote target with some confidence. We shall see.

[Remus West]

I still don't get the "My little China Girl" song comment.

[Remus West]

Still haven't found the Scoop/tru1cy thing but I did find something interesting. When CR was commenting on Bahktosh's kill/convert comment Grund came forward to defuse the situation.
link

[Grundbegriff]

I still don't get the "My little China Girl" song comment.

The Craw is Chinese. It was a joke, in connection with the German (Siegfried) reference.

[Grundbegriff]

Still haven't found the Scoop/tru1cy thing but I did find something interesting. When CR was commenting on Bahktosh's kill/convert comment Grund came forward to defuse the situation.
link

I couldn't see why the difference between "kill" and "convert/kill" was worthy of controversy. Knowing now that Bakhtosh was the convert, I wonder whether the 'tosh was up to something. Not knowing that then, I reckoned Chaosraven was making heavy weather over something that didn't (and still doesn't, look like a full-court press to persuade anyone.

I don't see where that scenario holds me in a particularly negative light. I certainly don't see why it sparks your imagination, Remus, even though something like RevHempus's extraordinary voting record does not.

Trying to fish out tells for the past couple of days has given me the strong impression that triggercut made a mistake. I think there are at least two KAOS agents left!

[Remus West]

Still haven't found the Scoop/tru1cy thing but I did find something interesting. When CR was commenting on Bahktosh's kill/convert comment Grund came forward to defuse the situation.
link

I couldn't see why the difference between "kill" and "convert/kill" was worthy of controversy. Knowing now that Bakhtosh was the convert, I wonder whether the 'tosh was up to something. Not knowing that then, I reckoned Chaosraven was making heavy weather over something that didn't (and still doesn't, look like a full-court press to persuade anyone.

So what if he was? Why get in the way of CR's play against Bahktosh? What did you have to lose by letting it play out a while? Thats why it caught my attention.

[Grundbegriff]

This right here is my #1 concern right now. I'm trying to relate that to how Rev was eager to follow Lassr at the beginning of today, and how he felt the need to "take a stand" later in the day.

I'm finding it difficult because he's enough of an unknown quantity that it's possible that he's just this way. But the actions are so wolflike that I also wonder whether I'm making excuses for him.

My #2 concern at this point is the risk that Remus and I are doing the paranoia waltz. I believe Remus is capable of the grand deception we're facing. What I don't know is whether Newcastle is. There's a fine line between cautious play and manipulative play. Newcastle keeps voting against me even though each reason he brings forth is demonstrably flimsy. His argument against me seems to reduce to "just because". I don't like the idea of losing a game to that sort of thing. My struggle is over whether I'm being hyper-rational and therefore putting too much weight on his many inconsistencies, or whether I'm catching on and facing his backlash.

This is one vexing game of WW. I keep re-reading, and waiting for a clue I haven't already spotted to fall from the sky, even though I know that's not likely to happen.

[Grundbegriff]

So what if he was? Why get in the way of CR's play against Bahktosh? What did you have to lose by letting it play out a while? Thats why it caught my attention.

That's odd. I was more worried about Chaosraven as KAOS at that point than about Bakhtosh. But I don't figure that saying "I don't know whether that's meaningful" a couple of times really impeded anything Chaosraven was doing.

[Remus West]

Option 4) Let Kaos pick
We lynch malchior
--tonight Hymie protects stessier
--tonight Kaos kills Hymie
Tomorrow we lynch/shoot the surviving "Hymie"

Kaos cannot kill Hymie.

By doing so the False Hymie admits to being the Fake, as you have pointed out.

I dunno, I looked at this Kaos manuever to have a 1 day advantage - not a "long-term Hymie ruse"

Hymie has no longevity now. All it takes is two consecutive Kill Hymie orders from KAOS and it is guaranteed.

Would KAOS spend two consecutive night-turns trying to kill Hymie?

As you point out, RealHymie will protect stessier tonight. The cost of killing RealHymie tonight is that FakeHymie will be exposed tomorrow and either shot or tossed overboard.

But what will happen if KAOS doesn't kill RealHymie and expose FakeHymie? With malchior gone today, we'll probably shoot one and jettison the other tomorrow. So FakeHymie will still be shot or tossed overboard.

As Unagi points out, this means that FakeHymie has a life-expectancy of 1 day regardless of whether we use a shot today or tomorrow. The only scenario where KAOS gains more than one turn from this is the one in which we deliberately keep FakeHymie alive.

Why would we do that, Chaosraven?

And if we wouldn't, then the discussion is whether to shoot today or tomorrow. The advantages of today are (a) there's no risk of losing Agent 13 in the overnight (assuming Sectoid wasn't secretly Agent 13), and (b) we deprive the remaining KAOS agent of counsel.

What are the advantages of putting it off till tomorrow?

Why would Grundbegriff not point out the fact that we would get to keep Chief alive that night by not shooting that day? Had we done the shoot and toss on both Hymies, as may have happened had the shot come sooner, we never would have had the Bahktosh scan.

[Remus West]

This is one vexing game of WW. I keep re-reading, and waiting for a clue I haven't already spotted to fall from the sky, even though I know that's not likely to happen.

+1

[Grundbegriff]

Why would Grundbegriff not point out the fact that we would get to keep Chief alive that night by not shooting that day?

Why wouldn't Chaosraven? (A few posts down on the same page).

[Grundbegriff]

Scoop goes on to point out the importance of protecting the Chief.

Chaosraven acknowledges the point here.

A few posts later, I also acknowledge Scoop's point, and explain that I'm only willing to use Agent 13 that day if we can deduce who the fake Hymie is.

Controversy resolved, Remus?

[Newcastle]

My #2 concern at this point is the risk that Remus and I are doing the paranoia waltz. I believe Remus is capable of the grand deception we're facing. What I don't know is whether Newcastle is. There's a fine line between cautious play and manipulative play. Newcastle keeps voting against me even though each reason he brings forth is demonstrably flimsy. His argument against me seems to reduce to "just because". I don't like the idea of losing a game to that sort of thing.

grund - might seem flimsy to you....to me they dont. I agree to disagree with you though. My vote is gonna stand. I think you are Kaos, i think you are the last one left alive.

[RevHempus71]

I am back from work. It was a long day too. All I could think about was this infernal game. All the twists and turns. All I can come up with for sure is that it would take someone with mad skills to pull off a Kaos win at this point. Only 2 of you seem to have that kind of Reputation( Grund and Remus). Now as for wich one to vote for..... One of you(Remus) has seen, and posted his psuedo belief, in my innocents. The other(Grund) has kind of attacked me. Based on the play so far I am torn as to who is the final bad guy. It seems to me all the extra discussion is starting to go in circles.
The main thing that sticks out to me at the moment is how everyone except Grund has stated more or less who the would, or have voted for.
I think this shows something. I'm not sure what but it is interesting none the less.

[Grundbegriff]

The main thing that sticks out to me at the moment is how everyone except Grund has stated more or less who the would, or have voted for.

Except here?
Repeated here?
Oh, and above, on this very page?

[RevHempus71]

Ok, so I am the one you would vote for.....

That makes it easier for me then. I will now use the Triggercut principle(being the only one I have come to understand). Grundbegriff how is your doggy paddle??????

[Grundbegriff]

grund - might seem flimsy to you....to me they dont.

What's your single strongest point that leads you to vote against me?

I agree to disagree with you though.

That's not good enough. You're talking about throwing the game for a vendetta over a bandwagon you apparently don't understand.

Apparently.

Why would you do that, even though I snatched you from the brink, came out early against malchior, invited scanning, and have played a strong game conducive to Control victory?

I can think of only one explanation. I don't like it, but I'm not seeing a way around it. Can you give me one?

[Grundbegriff]

Ok, so I am the one you would vote for.....

I don't know for sure whom I've vote against, because I feel as if I'm seeing wolfiness in each of you-- especially the two who have votes against me at the moment.

To the one in sheep's clothing: nice work.

I will now use the Triggercut principle(being the only one I have come to understand). Grundbegriff how is your doggy paddle??????

As triggercut might say, this boat doesn't deserve to stay afloat.

Code: Select all

 Remus West acc Grundbegriff(1)
 Lassr acc Grundbegriff(2)
 Remus West wd Grundbegriff(1)
 Lassr wd Grundbegriff(0)
 RevHempus71 acc Grundbegriff(1)
 RevHempus71 wd Grundbegriff(0)
Newcastle acc Grundbegriff(1)
RevHempus71 acc Grundbegriff(2)

Votes required to jettison: 3

No vote registered: Grundbegriff, Lassr, Remus West

[Newcastle]

Grund - its not a vendetta...its where my rationale leads me.


1. At the time inviting a scan would have prevented the uncovering of Baktosh. Yes Stessier had a bird in hand when you made the suggestion. However, I view it as a bad move not conducive to the village. It's a very sneaky move for kaos to do such; ask for the scan...show your willingness to be scanned " i got nothin to hide here". i think it was a clever ploy to gain trust. At the same time wasting a scan on you. Now it gets tricky....we know stessier had a bird in hand...no one else did....kaos would not know. It would be a great move for Kaos, invite the scan....I think in addition you had this in mind.....I am Kaos, eventually if I dont get killed at night the village is going to suspect me...now what can i do to throw a monkey wrench in their plans...ah, i will ask for a scan...therefore you take away from the ability of the chief to scan someone else. It's a very selfless move for Kaos sake, taking one for the team. However, for the long term move of the game it would work out great. Because the chief would have used his scan on you...and not on someone else.



2. When did you come out early v. Malchior? Day 1? You barely touched him. You had a minor disagreement with him early in the day. Then you barely even acknowledged him, instead focusing on a bandwagon. I think that "disagreement" was used as a cover to create distance between the two of you, and show that there was no collusion.

You sure as hell commented on baktosh's antenae remark, but you let malchior's comment slip. Instead during that AM you engaged in that discussion. I dont think an innocent Grund would have let that slide. It's only after the weekend, and "rereading" the thread did you bring it back up. I think you thought that you had to. As i said, i think it was a CYA move. Yes you did it before the scan, but you ignored it all throughout the AM discussion. As I said, I dont think an innocent grund would have let go of that. I think you would have taken hold of it and gone to town with it.

3. Snatching me from the brink is debatable
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/phpBB2/ ... 62#1192062

I squirmed....Remus comes in defends, a few posts later you do your calculating. Now which was it that saved me? My post? Remus post? Or your own? Or a combination of all three.

Anyway I think you did more on that first day to help Kaos survive than you did to find Kaos. Just the way i view things is all.

[Newcastle]

As triggercut might say, this boat doesn't deserve to stay afloat.

That dont sound like a control agent to me. Sounds more like Kaos. If I am wrong Grund I owe you an apology. It has been a very vexing game.

[Remus West]

/stares at Grund

/stares at Newcastle

/stares at RevHempus71

/comes to realize his eyes hurt

/shakes head in frustration and backs out of thread to ponder further but pauses to ask Lassr to give him time to comment and vote before casting any 3rd vote please.

[Grundbegriff]

As triggercut might say, this boat doesn't deserve to stay afloat.

That dont sound like a control agent to me. Sounds more like Kaos.

Don't be silly. It's neither Controllish nor KAOSish. It's a near-quote of something triggercut has said at frustrating turns in two or three games in which he knew he was right and nobody would listen to him.

That's not an exact parallel to this situation, but I'll bet the frustration threshold is similar....

[Lassr]

/stares at Grund

/stares at Newcastle

/stares at RevHempus71

/comes to realize his eyes hurt

/shakes head in frustration and backs out of thread to ponder further but pauses to ask Lassr to give him time to comment and vote before casting any 3rd vote please.

just got on to check in for the night to see what was happening. I will not vote now, I'm going to bed. I'll read and get caught up in the morning.

[Grundbegriff]

1. At the time inviting a scan would have prevented the uncovering of Baktosh.

I'll use small words.

Your theory is I'm KAOS. Try to keep your eye on that ball.

At the time, inviting a scan of me-- KAOS on your theory-- would have prevented the uncovering of Bakhtosh by exposing me, KAOS on your theory.

Scan of Bakhtosh? Nail a KAOS agent. Scan of Grund (KAOS on your theory)? Nail a KAOS agent.

Yes Stessier had a bird in hand when you made the suggestion.

Yes. Why doesn't that matter to you?

However, I view it as a bad move not conducive to the village. It's a very sneaky move for kaos to do such; ask for the scan...show your willingness to be scanned " i got nothin to hide here". i think it was a clever ploy to gain trust.

Who trusts me? And who would trust me just because I asked? The whole premise of my request was that people would probably only trust me after I had been scanned and confirmed.

At the same time wasting a scan on you.

But... but... Keep your eye on the ball. According to you, the only reason I'd do this sneaky, evil thing is because I'm KAOS. But if I'm KAOS, how exactly is the scan wasted?

...now what can i do to throw a monkey wrench in their plans...ah, i will ask for a scan...therefore you take away from the ability of the chief to scan someone else.

By giving up a KAOS agent? What?

It's a very selfless move for Kaos sake, taking one for the team. However, for the long term move of the game it would work out great. Because the chief would have used his scan on you...and not on someone else.

And would thereby have discovered a KAOS agent, on your theory. How is that a loss?

I am Totally Bewildered Beyond My Mind's Capacity by your argument here.

And remember-- since Bakhtosh was Shtarker, you have to be maintaining that
(a) I'm either Craw or Siegfried, and
(b) that after malchior's death, I'd step forward
(c) leaving Shtarker as the last KAOS agent (and thereby making his splodiness totally irrelevant, since his death loses the game for KAOS in that scenario).

You are totally not making sense, and I have to pay the price for it?

2. When did you come out early v. Malchior? Day 1? You barely touched him. You had a minor disagreement with him early in the day.

Right back at you.

I dont think an innocent Grund would have let that slide.

I do.

BTW-- where were you, when I was heading up the assault on malchior?

3. Snatching me from the brink is debatable
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/phpBB2/ ... 62#1192062

I squirmed....Remus comes in defends, a few posts later you do your calculating. Now which was it that saved me? My post? Remus post? Or your own? Or a combination of all three.

Remus obviously tried to save you. I obviously did, too. Even Rev seemed to have a piece of that action.

Anyway I think you did more on that first day to help Kaos survive than you did to find Kaos. Just the way i view things is all.

I can't tell whether you're KAOS or just irrational. So I'm left staring at the three of you and utterly hobbled.

[Grundbegriff]

1. At the time inviting a scan would have prevented the uncovering of Baktosh.

...

And remember-- since Bakhtosh was Shtarker, you have to be maintaining that
(a) I'm either Craw or Siegfried, and
(b) that after malchior's death, I'd step forward
(c) leaving Shtarker as the last KAOS agent (and thereby making his splodiness totally irrelevant, since his death loses the game for KAOS in that scenario).

Since these occur at the beginning and end of my post, I'm bringing them together here in hopes that you'll pause and let the implications sink in.

You are claiming that I am KAOS, and that in order to save SplodieBoy for last, I offered up a scan of my wicked self.

Why, Newcastle, would KAOS want to save SplodieBoy for last? In voting against me, are you not claiming that KAOS would sacrifice a KAOS agent for the privilege of throwing away the Berserker advantage?

[Newcastle]

1. At the time inviting a scan would have prevented the uncovering of Baktosh.

I'll use small words.

Your theory is I'm KAOS. Try to keep your eye on that ball.

At the time, inviting a scan of me-- KAOS on your theory-- would have prevented the uncovering of Bakhtosh by exposing me, KAOS on your theory.

Scan of Bakhtosh? Nail a KAOS agent. Scan of Grund (KAOS on your theory)? Nail a KAOS agent.

Yes Stessier had a bird in hand when you made the suggestion.

Yes. Why doesn't that matter to you?

However, I view it as a bad move not conducive to the village. It's a very sneaky move for kaos to do such; ask for the scan...show your willingness to be scanned " i got nothin to hide here". i think it was a clever ploy to gain trust.

Who trusts me? And who would trust me just because I asked? The whole premise of my request was that people would probably only trust me after I had been scanned and confirmed.

At the same time wasting a scan on you.

But... but... Keep your eye on the ball. According to you, the only reason I'd do this sneaky, evil thing is because I'm KAOS. But if I'm KAOS, how exactly is the scan wasted?

...now what can i do to throw a monkey wrench in their plans...ah, i will ask for a scan...therefore you take away from the ability of the chief to scan someone else.

By giving up a KAOS agent? What?

It's a very selfless move for Kaos sake, taking one for the team. However, for the long term move of the game it would work out great. Because the chief would have used his scan on you...and not on someone else.

And would thereby have discovered a KAOS agent, on your theory. How is that a loss?

I am Totally Bewildered Beyond My Mind's Capacity by your argument here.

And remember-- since Bakhtosh was Shtarker, you have to be maintaining that
(a) I'm either Craw or Siegfried, and
(b) that after malchior's death, I'd step forward
(c) leaving Shtarker as the last KAOS agent (and thereby making his splodiness totally irrelevant, since his death loses the game for KAOS in that scenario).

You are totally not making sense, and I have to pay the price for it?

2. When did you come out early v. Malchior? Day 1? You barely touched him. You had a minor disagreement with him early in the day.

Right back at you.

I dont think an innocent Grund would have let that slide.

I do.

BTW-- where were you, when I was heading up the assault on malchior?

3. Snatching me from the brink is debatable
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/phpBB2/ ... 62#1192062

I squirmed....Remus comes in defends, a few posts later you do your calculating. Now which was it that saved me? My post? Remus post? Or your own? Or a combination of all three.

Remus obviously tried to save you. I obviously did, too. Even Rev seemed to have a piece of that action.

Anyway I think you did more on that first day to help Kaos survive than you did to find Kaos. Just the way i view things is all.

I can't tell whether you're KAOS or just irrational. So I'm left staring at the three of you and utterly hobbled.

/watches the big bouncing ball, eyes following it like glue
/sneezes, missed the big bouncing ball,
/bites on his lip in admonishmnt
/eyes jerk away, as he bit too hard, misses the big bouncing ball
/goes back to watching the big bouncing ball
/sneezes again, misses the big bouncing ball
/glasses fly off and skitter under the table
/misses the big bouncing ball again
/crawls underneath table to retrieve said glasses
/gets up as Grund finishes his lecture

"What did you say?"

[Grundbegriff]

This isn't Get Smart. It's Groundhog Day.

[Grundbegriff]

Or maybe Huis clos....

[Newcastle]

1. At the time inviting a scan would have prevented the uncovering of Baktosh.

...

And remember-- since Bakhtosh was Shtarker, you have to be maintaining that
(a) I'm either Craw or Siegfried, and
(b) that after malchior's death, I'd step forward
(c) leaving Shtarker as the last KAOS agent (and thereby making his splodiness totally irrelevant, since his death loses the game for KAOS in that scenario).

Since these occur at the beginning and end of my post, I'm bringing them together here in hopes that you'll pause and let the implications sink in.

You are claiming that I am KAOS, and that in order to save SplodieBoy for last, I offered up a scan of my wicked self.

Why, Newcastle, would KAOS want to save SplodieBoy for last? In voting against me, are you not claiming that KAOS would sacrifice a KAOS agent for the privilege of throwing away the Berserker advantage?

1. Malchiors math mistake -
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/phpBB2/ ... 20#1195020
Fri Feb 08, 2008 5:33 am

2. Your asking for the chief to scan you
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/phpBB2/ ... 11#1195311
PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2008 9:31 am

3 You reiterate the desire to be scanned
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/phpBB2/ ... 42#1197142
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 11:36 am

4. All Hail the Chief! Stessier reveals self!
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/phpBB2/ ... nipost.gif
Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 5:47 pm

And in response -

No I am maintaining at the time of your desire to be scanned, you had no clue that Malchior had been scanned previously. There were no threats on him outside of his little math mistake. You bravely stepped and asked for the scan, in hopes that you could take the discussion away from Malchior and Baktosh. You were not saving one, but two at the time.

Don't add up Mr. Grund!

As an aside -
One of CR's lists - i think near final one names - Remus, Truicy and Malch as his top suspects
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/phpBB2/ ... 22#1198022

Great list to use as a frame job.

3. Stessier reveals self as chief -