How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Apr 15, 2015 11:25 am

ImLawBoy wrote:I survived the latest round of job cuts, so Yay! for continued employment.

Amen to that.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Apr 28, 2015 11:17 am

Consumer confidence down, home prices up.

Consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in April to a four-month low as Americans’ views of the labor market and the outlook on the economy deteriorated.

The Conference Board’s index dropped to 95.2 from a revised 101.4 reading in March, according to data on Tuesday from the New York-based private research group. The gauge was lower than the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

...

Another report Tuesday showed home prices in 20 U.S. cities appreciated at a faster pace than forecast in the year ended in February. The S&P/Case-Shiller index increased 5 percent after rising 4.5 percent in the 12 months through January. Nationally, prices climbed 4.2 percent year over year.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Tue Apr 28, 2015 11:34 am

The whole world is claiming that the Canadian housing market is overheated (some by as much as 35%) but here at home we're told that the concern is overblown. I'll actually be in the market for a new house in the near future and I need to know "the truth", especially in my local market.

I can't afford to lose 35%+ if the market goes south.

I think it's only in the 3 main markets, Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal, but I'm not sure. Ottawa's market has been steadily climbing for years, and I wouldn't be surprised to hear it's a little inflated, but it's a combination tech and public service town, both of which have been pretty solid for a long time. I can't imagine that demand will let up any time soon.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Tue Apr 28, 2015 11:34 am

Well, I am going to a Social Security seminar tomorrow that my friend the stock broker is sponsoring. Before the crash I wouldn't have considered that.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed May 06, 2015 2:40 pm

Productivity drops:

Productivity over the past six months fell by the most in more than two decades, leading to increases in U.S. labor costs that threaten corporate profits.

The measure of employee output per hour decreased at a 1.9 percent annualized rate after a revised 2.1 percent drop in the prior three months, a Labor Department report showed Wednesday in Washington. The decline on average over the past two quarters was the biggest since the first six months of 1993. Expenses per worker increased more than projected at the start of the year.

A lack of business investment in new technology may mean productivity will continue to languish and limit the economic expansion’s potential. Rising labor costs without offsetting increases in efficiency would also hurt business earnings, and in turn restrain the hiring that would propel consumer spending.
...
One reason for the decline in productivity was the series of issues, temporary and longer-lasting, that brought the economy to a near-halt in the first quarter: harsh weather, port-related delays, a stronger dollar and a drop in oil costs. These drags on growth had much less impact on employment, resulting in less output per employee.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Wed May 13, 2015 4:51 pm

Flat US retail sales offer no spring bounce

US retail sales were flat in April, starting the second quarter of the year on a weak footing and confounding analysts’ expectations for a spring bounce.
...
Economists had predicted a headline gain of 0.2 per cent, according to a Bloomberg survey. Stripping out vehicles, sales were up 0.1 per cent, while sales leaving out autos, petrol and building materials were flat, also shy of analysts’ expectations.
...
The Federal Reserve acknowledged a first quarter slowdown in its policy statement last month as it left rates at near-zero levels. However, some of the forces weighing on the numbers — including bad weather and a port strike — were likely to be transient, it said.
...
The weak April reading for retail sales was driven in part by a 0.4 per cent fall in motor vehicle and parts sales, as well as a 0.7 per cent fall in sales at petrol stations. There was also a sharp decline in sales from furniture stores, which dropped 0.9 per cent, while restaurant sales increased 0.7 per cent on the month.

gilraen · Post by **gilraen** » Wed May 13, 2015 7:00 pm

Productivity over the past six months fell by the most in more than two decades, leading to increases in U.S. labor costs that threaten corporate profits.

Not at my job...through all their dumb corporate decisions for the past couple of years and after a 3rd of my team was laid off last week, my workload is at least double of what it used to be

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu May 14, 2015 9:52 am

Jobless claims

Fewer Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, pushing the average over the past month to the lowest level in 15 years and underscoring labor-market strength.

Jobless claims decreased by 1,000 to 264,000 in the seven days ended May 9, a Labor Department report showed Thursday in Washington. The median forecast of 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected 273,000. The four-week average, a less-volatile measure, was the lowest since April 2000.

Fewer workers are being let go, a sign that demand for staffing remains robust and that a slowdown in economic growth was due to transitory factors, like bad weather and port disputes on the West Coast. Persistently low firings and greater employment gains should help wages pick up, supporting consumer spending.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Thu May 14, 2015 12:28 pm

So I have a few friends who are brokers/financial advisors and they put together a Social Security seminar last week. I am not quite there but I am getting close (60 this year) and since we got a free meal and wine the wife and I went.

It was pretty informative, and I now know I will need to keep working until I am 66 to get the best return on my (and your) money. I also learned that there are several ways to play the system, although in my case (since I am younger than my wife and have earned the most) they won't work for me.

I am self-employed with my brother. He is retiring on his 66th birthday (May 2017), which means I am going to have to find some kind of work for about 4 years. That should be fun.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu May 14, 2015 1:05 pm

Scuzz wrote:It was pretty informative, and I now know I will need to keep working until I am 66 to get the best return on my (and your) money. I also learned that there are several ways to play the system, although in my case (since I am younger than my wife and have earned the most) they won't work for me.

I won't live long enough to get "the best return" on my money. I think at my age, qualifying age starts at 67. I am doing my damnedest to be done and retired before 60 anyway. I fear my constitution will give out before then, even.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Thu May 14, 2015 1:55 pm

You can start collecting at 62, with medicare at 65 I think. But the best return comes at 66 or just thereafter (depends on what year you were born in).

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu May 14, 2015 1:58 pm

SSA

If You Were Born In 1960 Or Later

Your full retirement age Is 67
...
If you start receiving retirement benefits at

* age 62, you will get 70% of the monthly benefit because you will be getting benefits for an additional 60 months.
* age 65, you will get 86.7% of the monthly benefit because you will be getting benefits for an additional 24 months.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Thu May 14, 2015 2:08 pm

Scuzz wrote:It was pretty informative, and I now know I will need to keep working until I am 66 to get the best return on my (and your) money.

When you say "keep working," do you mean just not collecting social security or actually being on a payroll?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu May 14, 2015 2:37 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:SSA

If You Were Born In 1960 Or Later

Your full retirement age Is 67
...
If you start receiving retirement benefits at

* age 62, you will get 70% of the monthly benefit because you will be getting benefits for an additional 60 months.
* age 65, you will get 86.7% of the monthly benefit because you will be getting benefits for an additional 24 months.

If that's still the rule in 2032 then 62 will be when I start collection.

And man I hope to pancake I can reasonably retire before 2032.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu May 14, 2015 2:50 pm

There are proposals to change the eligibility dates before you get there.

More Details

C1.1 - After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022, increase the NRA 1 month every 2 years until the NRA reaches 68.

C1.3 - After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022, index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years.

C2.2 - After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022, index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years. Also, raise the earliest eligibility age (EEA) for retired-workers, aged widow(er)s, and disabled widow(er)s by the same amount as the NRA starting for those attaining EEA in 2017.

I believe with C2.2, that would tack on another five months of work for EEA for a projected 2032 age 62 retirement based on their assumptions.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Thu May 14, 2015 5:06 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Scuzz wrote:It was pretty informative, and I now know I will need to keep working until I am 66 to get the best return on my (and your) money.
When you say "keep working," do you mean just not collecting social security or actually being on a payroll?

If i want to pay bills without drawing down the IRA then yes, stay on a payroll somewhere. Assuming I get to 66 years 2 months old (when I can collect best benefit) then I am in pretty good shape. If you start collecting SS at 62 it really reduces the long term amount you can make. My dad made it to 88, his mother to 98, my mom's parents into their 80's, so short of me dropping dead or cancer I should make it 20 years after my "retirement".

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Thu May 14, 2015 6:05 pm

Scuzz wrote:S I also learned that there are several ways to play the system, although in my case (since I am younger than my wife and have earned the most) they won't work for me.

My wife outearns me by 10:1, so I need to take advantage of some of these tricks. I've read about technicalities like "deeming," taking the spousal benefit and immediately suspending it, and similar things...although I don't understand them. Got a few years before I need to figure it all out. But yeah, I figure to work until my full retirement age of 66-3/4, and my wife thinks she's going to work until 70.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Thu May 14, 2015 6:46 pm

Kraken wrote:
Scuzz wrote:S I also learned that there are several ways to play the system, although in my case (since I am younger than my wife and have earned the most) they won't work for me.
My wife outearns me by 10:1, so I need to take advantage of some of these tricks. I've read about technicalities like "deeming," taking the spousal benefit and immediately suspending it, and similar things...although I don't understand them. Got a few years before I need to figure it all out. But yeah, I figure to work until my full retirement age of 66-3/4, and my wife thinks she's going to work until 70.

Damn, I have forgotten the term but you have the elder spouse (if they make the most) files paperwork at 66 ( or thereabouts) to acknowledge their SS money but not to collect it. The younger spouse can then file on it and collect the benefits of the older better money making spouse until such time as that spouse decides to take their benefit. At that point the spouse then collects on their own benefits. Pretty neat trick.

Another issue pointed out was that if you wait to collect until you are 70 you would have to live very old to make up the cash difference from not collecting at 66. Also by waiting until 66 you can earn more money on your own before your benefits are effected.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Thu May 14, 2015 7:34 pm

We're essentially the same age so I don't think that trick works for us. I do know there's something similar for lopsided earners who are the same age, but I'm not going to hunt it down until I get closer to retirement age. Gotta figure the rules are changing all the time anyway.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Thu May 14, 2015 7:56 pm

Yea, in about 5 years I will have to re-learn everything I thought I learned at the last seminar.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri May 15, 2015 10:00 am

US Industrial production

A slump in crude prices dragged down US industrial production for the fifth consecutive month.

Industrial production fell 0.3 per cent in April from the prior month, according to the latest report from the Federal Reserve. This was below Wall Street's forecasts for production to remain flat and follows a 0.3 per cent decline in March.

The mining sub-index fell 0.8 per cent declining for the fourth straight month, as a fall in crude prices and gas drilling took its toll. Drilling for oil- and gas-wells fell 14.5 per cent from a month earlier, according to the report.
...
Manufacturing production was flat in April, missing estimates for a 0.2 per cent gain.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri May 15, 2015 11:09 am

Consumer confidence

The University of Michigan preliminary index of sentiment dropped to 88.6, the lowest since October, from 95.9 in April. The 7.3 point decrease was the largest since December 2012. The outcome was lower than the lowest estimate of 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

News that the world’s largest economy stalled last quarter shook Americans’ outlook, while the tick up in fuel costs since early March also contributed to the gloomier perceptions. While slightly lower than in the prior month, households still held relatively upbeat views on incomes, a sign spending will be sustained.

“The decline was widespread among all age and income subgroups as well as across all regions of the country,” Richard Curtin, director of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, said in a statement. “To be sure, the recent decline in consumer confidence does not indicate an incipient downturn in consumption and residential investment. Rather the data indicate a reluctant acceptance on the part of consumers that economic growth will remain near the same lackluster pace recorded during the past several years.”
...
The measure of expectations six months from now decreased to 81.5 from 88.8.

“The data nonetheless suggest that consumers remain optimistic about their future personal finances and have maintained their buying plans are reasonably favorable levels,” Curtin also wrote.

Americans expect the inflation rate in the next year will be 2.9 percent, compared with 2.6 percent in the April survey. Over the next five to 10 years, they expect a 2.8 percent rate of inflation, compared with 2.6 percent in the previous month.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri May 15, 2015 11:13 am

So, looking back at the 6.5 years and 65 pages since this thread started, how does your situation today compare with what was going on back then?

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Fri May 15, 2015 12:00 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:So, looking back at the 6.5 years and 65 pages since this thread started, how does your situation today compare with what was going on back then?

Mortgage: lower
Home equity: higher
Cost of Living: higher
Work Income: Cost of living adjusted, probably roughly the same.
Job Security: Same
Outside income: higher
Property Tax: higher
Health insurance: higher
Other insurance: higher
Savings: higher
Retirement funds: higher
Debt: lower
Car: 6.5 years older
Number of kids: higher
Daycare/School: higher
Daily joy: exponentially higher
Level of panic: Same

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri May 15, 2015 12:05 pm

The sector I work in has "recovered". My company has expanded its business. I've probably taken on about a 40% raise. I've paid off my mortgage.

However, setting aside having paid off my mortgage. My typical monthly expenses has gone from about $500 a month to $900 a month, which is to say my CoL has nearly doubled.

Also my housing has gone from living on the edge outside of the ghetto to living on the edge inside the ghetto. My house is valued at approximately between 1/3 and 1/4 of the mortgage I paid on.

My huge raise has come at the price of a workload and stress level that keep going up. I used to have a lot more inter office support and there used to be a second IT related person in house. Now I have more customer requirements than ever, more internal bureaucracy and security requirements than ever, and I am still only the same one person that I have been since 2009. It's pretty clear after the expansion in 2013 and 2014 that comes with more cost cutting that it's going to take a fairly major failure to change this. That inevitable failure will probably cost me my job, where they will then do a new analysis and determine they need at least two people on staff to mitigate problems.

I still hope we see the problems in need of solutions before disaster strikes or before I break and that one day I will be able to do things like work on a project because it's cool or do something like take a vacation.

Edit:

If we are going to use metrics:

Mortgage: Paid in Full
Home equity: 1/3 to 1/4 what it was
Cost of Living: nearly double
Work Income: up nearly 50%
Job Security: ??? Should be more secure than ever but isn't.
Outside income: Non existent
Property Tax: 1/2 of what it was
Health insurance: higher to my employer which means less benefits to me. Not sure of the increase but it has averaged over 10% a year, which suggests more than double. Health benefits have also decreased but not very noticeably.
Other insurance: double
Savings: about the same. See mortgage Paid in Full.
Retirement funds: Recovered. Not too much higher than my contributions
Debt: Debt free. See mortgage Paid in Full
Car: 12 year old economy class car died. new economy class car purchased. It's now 5 years old.
Daily joy: Noticeably lower.
Level of panic: Slightly higher.

Scuzz · Post by **Scuzz** » Fri May 15, 2015 12:31 pm

Mortgage: lower
Home equity: higher
Cost of Living: higher
Work Income: Down
Job Security: Company Closing in 2017 Due to retirement of owner
Outside income: higher
Property Tax: higher
Health insurance: higher
Other insurance: higher
Savings: higher
Retirement funds: higher
Debt: same
Car: 6.5 years older
Number of kids: same, but one pays for herself now
Daycare/School: n/a
Daily joy: exponentially higher
Level of panic: Same
college costs: higher

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Fri May 15, 2015 12:44 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:So, looking back at the 6.5 years and 65 pages since this thread started, how does your situation today compare with what was going on back then?

Mortgage: lower
Home equity: higher
Cost of Living: higher
Work Income: higher
Job Security: Same
Outside income: Same
Property Tax: higher
Health insurance: higher
Other insurance: higher
Savings: higher
Retirement funds: higher
Debt: lower
Car: From Civic to Infiniti... higher?
Number of kids: higher
Daycare/School: lower
Daily joy: rare
Level of panic: Same

I am back to the same job I had back then at a higher level and 25% higher salary. The company outsourced back then and I moved to a different division, last year they started to insource and I came back.

My mortgage interest rate is crazy (2.625%) and my retirement funds are 7x what they were after the crash.

I am done paying for daycare during the school year.

I am not sure I have more money day to day because I don't budget, but the circumstances sure make it feel that way.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri May 15, 2015 1:23 pm

Using the template so graciously provided.

Mortgage: acquired
Home equity: none
Cost of Living: higher
Work Income: marginally higher, adjusted for inflation
Job Security: same, secure
Outside income: none
Property Tax: acquired
Health insurance: worse
Other insurance: higher
Savings: soon to be depleted
Retirement funds: insufficient
Debt: higher
Car: higher cost
Number of kids: still zero
Daycare/School: n/a
Daily joy: fluctuating
Level of panic: medium to high, higher than previous

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Fri May 15, 2015 5:33 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:So, looking back at the 6.5 years and 65 pages since this thread started, how does your situation today compare with what was going on back then?

Much improved, thank you. We are almost back to our 1990s peak. It's almost like the Bush administration never happened if you ignore the wealth that we didn't accumulate.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Mon May 18, 2015 11:12 am

I'm not going to try to figure out the numbers, but things are dramatically different. Six years ago we were two incomes and no kids. Now we're one income (with occasional freelance supplementation) and three kids. Same house that is hopefully appreciating. Massive car payment that we didn't have back then. Way more medical expenses. Way less sleep.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon May 18, 2015 11:21 am

Mortgage: Have one now
Home equity: higher
Cost of Living: higher
Work Income: Higher by significant amount
Job Security: Worse - sorta - hard to gauge honestly - I'll call it neutral
Outside income: None
Property Tax: higher
Health insurance: higher
Other insurance: higher
Savings: higher
Retirement funds: higher
Debt: higher
Car: Newer car (under 2 years)
Number of kids: None
Daycare/School: N/A
Daily joy: working from home 3 days a week when not traveling - (higher!!!)
Level of panic: None

The big thing that changed for me was a conscious decision to abandon network engineering and head into IT Security - was probably the best career decision possible for me at the time. It really has paid out the last 3 years as the headlines get worse.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed May 20, 2015 3:51 pm

The latest in crowdfunding when banks won't help you out.

Local cafe featured in NYT

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/05/21/bu ... errer&_r=1

ZipCap’s merchants start by recruiting an “Inner Circle” of customers who pledge to spend a set amount of money in a fixed period of time. ZipCap then tallies up those pledges and allows businesses to borrow against a portion of it. To be eligible for loans, companies must have been in business for at least two years in the same location and must enroll at least 100 Inner Circle members. Participants pay ZipCap a monthly fee of either $99 or 2.5 percent of their Inner Circle transactions, whichever is lower.

At Beezy’s, Ms. Roll signed up 130 Inner Circle members. Each committed to spend $475 a year. In March, she became ZipCap’s first borrower, taking out a $10,000 loan with a 12-month repayment schedule and an annual percentage rate of 3.99 percent.

What an interesting model for being an Angel. I like it.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed May 20, 2015 4:53 pm

LordMortis wrote:The latest in crowdfunding when banks won't help you out.

Local cafe featured in NYT

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/05/21/bu ... errer&_r=1

ZipCap’s merchants start by recruiting an “Inner Circle” of customers who pledge to spend a set amount of money in a fixed period of time. ZipCap then tallies up those pledges and allows businesses to borrow against a portion of it. To be eligible for loans, companies must have been in business for at least two years in the same location and must enroll at least 100 Inner Circle members. Participants pay ZipCap a monthly fee of either $99 or 2.5 percent of their Inner Circle transactions, whichever is lower.

At Beezy’s, Ms. Roll signed up 130 Inner Circle members. Each committed to spend $475 a year. In March, she became ZipCap’s first borrower, taking out a $10,000 loan with a 12-month repayment schedule and an annual percentage rate of 3.99 percent.
What an interesting model for being an Angel. I like it.

If I'm reading that right she's paying around 16% the first year. $399 in annual interest (may be less if she starts paying off immediately I guess) and $1,188 for the ZipCap fee (lesser of $99 or 2.5% of $5,145 in pledged Inner Circle spend per month ($128)).

Skinypupy · Post by **Skinypupy** » Wed May 20, 2015 10:05 pm

Interesting exercise:

Mortgage: same
Home equity: higher
Cost of Living: higher
Work Income: waaaaaay higher, at least triple
Job Security: same. Commission-based, so always at-risk
Outside income: none
Property Tax: little higher
Health insurance: higher, but not much
Other insurance: none
Savings: significantly higher
Retirement funds: insufficient, but improving
Debt: everything paid off except the house
Car: paid off
Number of kids: +2 twins, which is challenging
Daycare/School: lower for now (Little B 6.1 is in public school), but soon to be significantly higher when the Wonder Twins start preschool
Daily joy: same
Level of panic: high. I've been riding some big deals that are coming to a close, and I don't have anything set up yet to replace them. I could go from sales hero to sales zero very quickly.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Thu May 21, 2015 12:19 am

I can't afford an Apple watch!

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Thu May 21, 2015 2:17 am

At the moment I can't even afford an apple, but come Monday's paycheck I'll be able to buy scores of them. Life is good if you like apples.

Post by **ImLawBoy** » Thu May 21, 2015 10:18 am

Skinypupy wrote:Level of panic: high. I've been riding some big deals that are coming to a close, and I don't have anything set up yet to replace them. I could go from sales hero to sales zero very quickly.

Just one of the reasons I could never do sales. Scares the bejesus out of me.

Matrix · Post by **Matrix** » Thu May 21, 2015 10:53 am

Hmm, well i am certainly much more experienced in business. I think 6.5 years ago my coaching business was just starting to hit strides, now i am getting out of the field.
I think we need to add less tangible stuff that relates to economics, such as experience, hire-ability, etc. Since in that sense i think i am much better off then in financial sense at the moment, since i spent a bunch of start ups, ideas , new projects that were great in terms of learning if not always financially best.

Experience: Much broader, much better understanding of underlying business, management style and start up principles
Mortgage: none (renting all the way in nyc)
Home equity: none
Cost of Living: higher
Work Income: Much higher, probably 3x what it was but depends on a year, this year will be crappy, industry is changing. (commission based on clients)
Job Security: None or Infinite depending how you look on it
Outside income: Higher, i done digital consulting a lot over the last 5 years.
Property Tax: none
Health insurance: same
Other insurance: none
Savings: Somewhat higher. Used to be much higher, but after i spent a bunch on startup and invested recently into bunch of domains... well its way lower now
Retirement funds: ??? none at the moment, for me its all about using capital to hit it out of ball park . My retirement fund right now is in the forms of domains
Debt: none
Car: none
Number of kids: none that i know of
Level of uncertainty: Mild. I am changing my field of work and moving from coaching to niche eCommerce site/startup. Because i have done so much digital consulting, its not a new thing, so i dont feel it as much.

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Thu May 21, 2015 10:56 am

Kraken wrote:At the moment I can't even afford an apple, but come Monday's paycheck I'll be able to buy scores of them. Life is good if you like apples.

Bananas are much cheaper.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu May 21, 2015 10:56 am

Pajamas are extra.