[WW] Prom Night Massacre - 1:30 AM - Game Over!

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 2:18 am

Chaosraven wrote:So only a Killer result does us any good?

False.

If the King simply steps forward-- saying nothing about partners or coupledness or suchlike-- an announces some trusteds (without revealing who's Special), then that's money.

The key is to avoid any whisper of connectedness, partnership, coupling, etc. Even to set up a feint. Don't. Mention. The War.

Semaj · Post by **Semaj** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:18 am

OK grund, we are all in agreement... Well ok we are not, but the smart money says if the Fh was a target and lived she should probably come forward.

That being said...

Deaths: 4 people.

Amount of couples: 6

say the killer scans and finds he is 4-4 on 4 deaths = only 2 couples left, its in his best interests to play the double up and hope game.

Meaning... he hit his 1/3rd and missed. (4 open couples 2 paired couples), paired couple second, failed attempt.

Theo wants me dead and presiding opinion is Theo is our best bet. I dont know if he is bad or not, but i'm pointing out the obvious now.

So based on my thinking...

1) if there are two couples left, they should not in any form out themselves. we have less misses than hits. Either we lynch theo and see what occurs, or we try some other hackemaney scheme to try and find the killer. Me, when Theo votes for me hoping I seem more guilty, I dilsike his chances of being good. If you are in a final pair and you are about to be lynched, try and explain this. If the queen is still alive maybe they'll see fit to finally use their damn power. If not, we got a lot of frakkin work in front of us.

2) My thought was kelric who is pretty much voting for anyone but themselves seems pretty frakkin wolfish. It might be a good guy trying to avoid death, but we all agree non powereds are there as fodder. Unless the scanner can make them trusted, they try to make the misses hurt less. I dunno... I dislike theo, but why is kelric so opposed to dying?

3) I like grund's this game so far. His common sense is pretty prevalent. I dunno if he is evil or not, but while he makes solid sense and is trying to clear good innocent people, let him frigging talk away.

4) The queen should have saved Lassr. I guess not trusting anyone makes re-firing the gun a bad idea. But grow a damn set... or not... hrm.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 9:16 am

Semaj wrote:
3) I like grund's this game so far. His common sense is pretty prevalent. I dunno if he is evil or not, but while he makes solid sense and is trying to clear good innocent people, let him frigging talk away.

Following Grund's common sense got Unagi and Lassr, two innocent victims, shot.

BTW, Semaj, that's the longest post I've seen from you in awhile after shaking your tree a little with a throwaway accusation. Way to raise my suspicion matrix. Trying to stay alive, as you claim of Kelric? Of course, we are all trying to stay alive.

Semaj wrote:1) if there are two couples left, they should not in any form out themselves. we have less misses than hits. Either we lynch theo and see what occurs, or we try some other hackemaney scheme to try and find the killer. Me, when Theo votes for me hoping I seem more guilty, I dilsike his chances of being good. If you are in a final pair and you are about to be lynched, try and explain this. If the queen is still alive maybe they'll see fit to finally use their damn power. If not, we got a lot of frakkin work in front of us.

Why would you post the bolded part? Unless you aren't afraid.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 9:51 am

Today's Situation:

Let S = Solo
Let O = Occupied (in a couple)
Let D = Dead

With Bubbles, Unagi, Newcastle, and Lassr dead, and with everyone starting in a couple, we now have 8 alive (including Slashy).

This means that there are ---=--- possible combinations of players/relationships (with green meaning alive and red meaning dead):

If this was yesterday's situation:
O+O
O+O
O+O
O+O
S+D
D+D

Then today's situation is either

O+O
O+O
O+O
O+O
D+D
D+D

xor

O+O
O+O
O+O
S+D
S+D
D+D

If (as seems more likely) yesterday's situation was this:
O+O
O+O
O+O
S+D
S+D
S+D

Then today's arrangement is (and last night's arrangement was) either

O+O
O+O
O+O
S+D
S+D
D+D

xor

O+O
O+O
S+D
S+D
S+D
S+D

In human terms, this means that the following statements are true:
(a) We have either 4 couples, 3 couples, xor 2 couples. The 3 couples scenario is most likely and is possible on either of yesterday's scenarios.
(b) We have either 0 singles, 2 singles, xor 4 singles. The 2 singles scenario is most likely and is possible on either of yesterday's scenarios.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 10:03 am

Grundbegriff wrote:If (as seems more likely) yesterday's situation was this:
...
Then today's arrangement is (and last night's arrangement was) either
...
O+O
O+O
O+O
S+D
S+D
D+D

xor

O+O
O+O
S+D
S+D
S+D
S+D

We probably have three couples plus two singles. However, it's quite possible that there are only two couples left (and four singles). Either way, we must do everything possible to avoid tipping the hand about who's still in a couple. That's the one and only bit of knowledge that Slashy cares about.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 10:06 am

theohall wrote:
Semaj wrote:
3) I like grund's this game so far. His common sense is pretty prevalent. I dunno if he is evil or not, but while he makes solid sense and is trying to clear good innocent people, let him frigging talk away.
Following Grund's common sense got Unagi and Lassr, two innocent victims, shot.

That's an interesting claim to make in view of the fact that I lobbied not for their deaths but for yours.

Kelric · Post by **Kelric** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 11:02 am

Semaj wrote:2) My thought was kelric who is pretty much voting for anyone but themselves seems pretty frakkin wolfish. It might be a good guy trying to avoid death, but we all agree non powereds are there as fodder. Unless the scanner can make them trusted, they try to make the misses hurt less. I dunno... I dislike theo, but why is kelric so opposed to dying?

Everybody votes for anyone but themselves.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 11:31 am

Semaj wrote:Theo wants me dead and presiding opinion is Theo is our best bet.

Really? Presiding? Really?

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 11:33 am

Grundbegriff wrote:
theohall wrote:
Semaj wrote:
3) I like grund's this game so far. His common sense is pretty prevalent. I dunno if he is evil or not, but while he makes solid sense and is trying to clear good innocent people, let him frigging talk away.
Following Grund's common sense got Unagi and Lassr, two innocent victims, shot.
That's an interesting claim to make in view of the fact that I lobbied not for their deaths but for yours.

I was going to point out that I was the one who lobbied (through one post) to get Lassr shot.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 11:37 am

Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
theohall wrote:
Semaj wrote:
3) I like grund's this game so far. His common sense is pretty prevalent. I dunno if he is evil or not, but while he makes solid sense and is trying to clear good innocent people, let him frigging talk away.
Following Grund's common sense got Unagi and Lassr, two innocent victims, shot.
That's an interesting claim to make in view of the fact that I lobbied not for their deaths but for yours.
I was going to point out that I was the one who lobbied (through one post) to get Lassr shot.

But no one paid attention until Grundbegriff followed. Then everyone, including myself, acted like lemmings.

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 11:45 am

theohall wrote:
Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
theohall wrote:
Semaj wrote:
3) I like grund's this game so far. His common sense is pretty prevalent. I dunno if he is evil or not, but while he makes solid sense and is trying to clear good innocent people, let him frigging talk away.
Following Grund's common sense got Unagi and Lassr, two innocent victims, shot.
That's an interesting claim to make in view of the fact that I lobbied not for their deaths but for yours.
I was going to point out that I was the one who lobbied (through one post) to get Lassr shot.
But no one paid attention until Grundbegriff followed. Then everyone, including myself, acted like lemmings.

That would suggest that folks have a predisposition towards Grund and you all proved with the last game that is just not the case.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 11:51 am

Grundbegriff

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 11:58 am

Isgrimnur wrote: Grundbegriff

You know why this is not the best idea? You have to figure the King to have scanned him at this point. There is no reason to try and build a "known" block so scanning those you think might be the killer is your best move. I would be shocked were he not one of those scanned thus far. All of which means if he were the killer then the King would have stepped forward and told us. Only Newcastle and Bubbles could really have been the King as the other deaders had a chance to speak up and tell us to back off. Which means the odds are pretty good that the King is still alive.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 2:16 pm

Votes:

Semaj (1) - Theohall
Grundbegriff (1) Isgrimnur

Majority is 5 votes.

Student(s) with no votes: tru1cy, Remus West, Grundbegriff, Chaosraven, Semaj, Kelric

Kelric · Post by **Kelric** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 5:32 pm

Grund doesn't seem particularly evil this time around, but then he never does. I don't know about the rest of you.

J'accuse tru1cy!

Chaosraven · Post by **Chaosraven** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 7:20 pm

I'm inclined toward either Semaj or tru1cy. Of course I can't find the damned brackets on this phone...

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Thu Mar 11, 2010 8:53 pm

Votes:

Semaj (1) - Theohall
Grundbegriff (1) - Isgrimnur
tru1cy (1) - Kelric

Majority is 5 votes.

Student(s) with no votes: tru1cy, Remus West, Grundbegriff, Chaosraven, Semaj

Kelric · Post by **Kelric** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 10:26 am

Everything is so quiet...

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 11:30 am

tru1cy

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 11:49 am

Remus West wrote: tru1cy

Why? Is this a "Why not?" thing?

tru1cy · Post by **tru1cy** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 12:11 pm

Honestly, killing me would net you nothing, but the slashy would say that too

Anyway, Theohall

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 12:19 pm

Votes:

tru1cy (2) - Kelric, Remus West
Semaj (1) - Theohall
Grundbegriff (1) - Isgrimnur
Theohall (1) - tru1cy

Majority is 5 votes.

Student(s) with no votes: Grundbegriff, Chaosraven, Semaj

Semaj · Post by **Semaj** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 12:29 pm

So much chatting this time around.

<accuse>Theohall</accuse>

Semaj · Post by **Semaj** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 12:29 pm

oops... lol

Theohall

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 12:31 pm

Votes:

tru1cy (2) - Kelric, Remus West
Theohall (2) - tru1cy, Semaj
Semaj (1) - Theohall
Grundbegriff (1) - Isgrimnur

Majority is 5 votes.

Student(s) with no votes: Grundbegriff, Chaosraven

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 12:43 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Remus West wrote: tru1cy

Why? Is this a "Why not?" thing?

Its a "I'm not really sure who done it but this guy isn't contributing much". Which can be said about almost anyone right now but with tru1cy it is his standard procedure so I wanted to see how he would react. He has done so and maintained his standard form. Which makes me a little less inclined to vote him but as I still have no real read I feel strongly about I'm willing to let the vote sit for now and see what else comes of it.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 1:02 pm

withdraw Semaj

tru1cy

No real reason, just like there wasn't much of one for Semaj. So when there is no reason, the Triggercut Principle is reliable enough.

Kelric · Post by **Kelric** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 1:13 pm

withdraw tru1cy

for now. Don't want him getting lynched so quickly.

Scoop20906 · Post by **Scoop20906** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 1:23 pm

Votes:

tru1cy (2) - Remus West, Theohall
Theohall (2) - tru1cy, Semaj
Grundbegriff (1) - Isgrimnur

Majority is 5 votes.

Student(s) with no votes: Grundbegriff, Chaosraven, Kelric

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 2:10 pm

I think I'd be more comfortable offing Semaj than offing tru1cy.

Kelric · Post by **Kelric** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 2:12 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:I think I'd be more comfortable offing Semaj than offing tru1cy.

Feel free to vote.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 2:57 pm

Kelric wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:I think I'd be more comfortable offing Semaj than offing tru1cy.
Feel free to vote.

What?? Trying to get Semaj lynched quickly??

Remus West · Post by **Remus West** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 4:16 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:I think I'd be more comfortable offing Semaj than offing tru1cy.

Would work for me. I feel pretty good regarding tru1cy's approach to being voted for.

Semaj · Post by **Semaj** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 5:27 pm

Theo: At the time the only person voting for me was Kelric and since they voted for everyone and their brother trying not to die (Which seems to be missed by everyone, no matter how much I say this) I wasnt in a frame of mind of: Wow I might be voted off the island today. Mine was more of a : If I die, I'ma have no damn say over it at night.

If I wanted to stay alive, I'd not get on everyones radar. The fact I'm sick and havent started playing poker yet means I can actually chime in.

Grund/Remus: Any reason why or grasping at straws?

Kelric - stop voting for any train that shows up and start trying to figure out who is bad.

====================

Ok, Worst case scenario: we have 2 couples left, 1 is the the killers. His move last night found him the other couple, we now have 2 misses left.

Not so worst case scenario, 2 couples left, his miss found him one, but he doesnt know who the other is since he killed his couple partner already.

Scenario we all hope for: 3 couples left, he missed, 3+ misses left.

Kelric · Post by **Kelric** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 8:43 pm

I've been trying to think who is the bad guy. IIRC, and I may not after a few beers, but I don't think I've been all that big on train voting. Nobody jumps out as all that innocent right now. I'm strangely comfortable with voting for almost any of you.

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 9:51 pm

Kelric wrote:I'm strangely comfortable with voting for almost any of you.

Beer will do that to you.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 11:50 pm

Analyzing

theohall · Post by **theohall** » Fri Mar 12, 2010 11:54 pm

Is that shorthand for having a beer, Grundbegriff?

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sat Mar 13, 2010 12:01 am

The first vote. Greens are known to be good.

Isgrimnur acc Lassr(1)
Remus West acc Grundbegriff(1)
theohall acc Isgrimnur(1)
Kelric acc theohall(1)
Newcastle acc Remus West(1)
Unagi acc theohall(2)
Lassr acc tru1cy(1)
tru1cy acc Lassr(2)
Semaj acc Kelric(1)
Grundbegriff acc Unagi(1)
theohall acc Remus West(2)
Newcastle wd Remus West(1)
Lassr acc Chaosraven(1)
Lassr acc Unagi(2)
Isgrimnur acc Unagi(3)
Remus West wd Grundbegriff
Kelric acc Unagi(4)
tru1cy acc Unagi(5)
theohall acc Unagi(6), killing him. Unagi names Remus West his executioner.

Against theohall: Unagi
Against Kelric: Semaj
Against Unagi: Grundbegriff, Lassr, Isgrimnur, Kelric, theohall, tru1cy

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Sat Mar 13, 2010 12:12 am

The second vote. Greens are known to be good.

Isgrimnur acc Kelric(1)
Kelric acc Semaj(1)
Remus West acc theohall(1)
theohall acc Remus West(1)
tru1cy acc Grundbegriff(1)
Grundbegriff acc theohall(2)
Semaj acc Kelric(2)
theohall acc Kelric(3)
Remus West wd theohall(0)
Kelric wd Semaj(0)
Lassr acc tru1cy(1)
tru1cy acc Lassr(1)
Kelric acc tru1cy(2)
Remus West acc Lassr(2)
Grundbegriff acc Lassr(3)
Lassr acc Grundbegriff(1)
theohall acc Lassr(4)
Chaosraven acc Lassr(5), killing him. Lassr names theohall his executioner.

Against Kelric: Isgrimnur, Semaj
Against tru1cy: Kelric
Against Lassr: tru1cy, Remus West, Grundbegriff, theohall, Chaosraven
Against Grundbegriff: Lassr