That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons bring us some web forums whereupon we can gather
http://www.octopusoverlords.com/forum/
For sure. See also: 2-car families where both are still powered entirely by dino juice.
If I can't convince my own damn wife to go electric after owning a Tesla for 3 years... then there are all the people that simply can't afford it or wouldn't have access to adequate charging infrastructure in their urban location.
I'm not looking to derail this thread, but the studies have been done--something like 90% of 2-car families could make it work right now for at least one of the vehicles, but don't. Largely because they don't know.coopasonic wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 12:49 pmIf I can't convince my own damn wife to go electric after owning a Tesla for 3 years... then there are all the people that simply can't afford it or wouldn't have access to adequate charging infrastructure in their urban location.
I’ve got a 3-car family powered entirely by dino juice. Well, the cars are powered by dino juice, my house is mostly powered by sun juice.Zaxxon wrote:For sure. See also: 2-car families where both are still powered entirely by dino juice.
Teach me. I currently have three dino-mobiles that I own outright. How can I make it work to transition some/all of those to electric?Zaxxon wrote:I'm not looking to derail this thread, but the studies have been done--something like 90% of 2-car families could make it work right now for at least one of the vehicles, but don't. Largely because they don't know.
Serious question do 90% of 2 car families have the reasonable ability to charge overnight? That would seem like the first and largest hurdle. The second becomes how many of 2 car families with the reasonable ability to charge overnight can reasonably afford a new car? 90% seems very high to me but just because it seems high doesn't mean it is. I would think I have less of a barrier to entry than most two car families but initial outlay, redoing my electric, and the own a car aaS takes it out of range for now. I'm putting off my next car for as long as reasonable, in part, to see if that changes.
LordMortis wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:26 pmSerious question do 90% of 2 car families have the reasonable ability to charge overnight? That would seem like the first and largest hurdle. The second becomes how many of 2 car families with the reasonable ability to charge overnight can reasonably afford a new car? 90% seems very high to me but just because it seems high doesn't mean it is. I would think I have less of a barrier to entry than most two car families but initial outlay, redoing my electric, and the own a car aaS takes it out of range for now. I'm putting off my next car for as long as reasonable, in part, to see if that changes.
The key to what I said is 'powered entirely by dino juice,' and that I'm specifically talking about multi-vehicle households (and in my mind, I meant that literally--households, though admittedly I didn't say that. It matters as folks in houses can overwhelmingly charge at home). I'm not suggesting everyone go out and buy a *new* car (which both of you mentioned). Nor am I suggesting that a Tesla is the way to go for all these folks. The average US driver drives 29 miles/day.RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:23 pmTeach me. I currently have three dino-mobiles that I own outright. How can I make it work to transition some/all of those to electric?Zaxxon wrote:I'm not looking to derail this thread, but the studies have been done--something like 90% of 2-car families could make it work right now for at least one of the vehicles, but don't. Largely because they don't know.
I can see the argument that if I was in the market to buy a new car, I could make an EV work. But I don’t see how I could make it work if I wasn’t already in the market to replace a car. And I’m not resistant. I *want* to only own EVs. I *want* to slap power walls on my house to get me off the grid. The money gods make it hard.
Indeed, but the larger population instead still buy new ICE vehicles. At the very least, for most folks at this point, if your next vehicle can't be an EV, then it shouldn't be a new vehicle. Sending the signal to continue production of ICE vehicles as the bulk of our overall production is a travesty. (And to head off misguided retorts--yes, it's absolutely a societal failure, a governmental failure, and not an individual one for most folks.) Buy used, and put in a reservation on an electric of your choice while you wait. If you need a new pickup, buy used and put a reservation in for an F-150 Lightning.malchior wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:54 pm Even if everyone could buy EVs ... you still can't. I ordered a car in July for September. It's mid-November and I'm still burning dino juice. Capacity to switch is getting better but we're not even close to having enough capability to do so for the larger population.
There is a fundamental issue though. The supply of used ICE vehicles is insufficient. We're seeing that right now. New cars are supply constrained and used car prices are extremely high right now. Supply of replacement EVs is insufficient for current needs. I agree with you on the principle but the problem is that is not achievable with our current market mix. Unfortunately, the United States is just not set up to make buying only used or EVs a realistic option. It probably won't be a realistic path this *decade*. Tesla is obviously paving a path but EVs are still an early adopter technology. And that absolutely is a governmental failure. We should have started tackling this 5 or 10 years ago at a minimum but that we don't really have much of a well-trod path forward even now is unforgiveable.Zaxxon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 3:22 pmIndeed, but the larger population instead still buy new ICE vehicles. At the very least, for most folks at this point, if your next vehicle can't be an EV, then it shouldn't be a new vehicle.malchior wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:54 pm Even if everyone could buy EVs ... you still can't. I ordered a car in July for September. It's mid-November and I'm still burning dino juice. Capacity to switch is getting better but we're not even close to having enough capability to do so for the larger population.
I agree the core problem is not the capacity but it is the most pressing issue - right now. There is obviously significant market pressure just in Tesla's sales trajectory to begin a shift in the mix between EV/ICE but again we're effective still in an early adoption phase here. We are probably years away from widespread adoption. There are still hurdles to huge changes happening right now around different issues (for example competing battery chemistries) that aren't settled.The issue of which you complain--not enough capacity--is simply a symptom of people not moving to electrify en masse. It's literally just another side-effect of the core problem. It's not a core problem in itself. If the market for new ICE vehicles dried up in favor of massive reservations for EVs, the production would shift.
There is this and the continuation of policies that allowed the oil and gas sector to cause a MASSIVE amount of damage and not held to any account. Heck they are still being subsidized and rewarded for their bad behavior.We're here in late 2021 with exactly one manufacturer producing EVs at scale not because the composition of the universe demands it. We're here because the powers that be continue[d] to put the transition off as long as possible, and the market did not object.
Global viruses that warm EVs, I think.
And a DM who's... a firecracker.
Might I suggest a pre-order for an Aptera? Of all of the subsidies go through, you're looking at something like $15-20K for a new car with minimal maintenance, and potentially no charging at all for 95% of your driving. Only a 2-seater, true, but for most of us, we could get away with swapping out at least one of our dino-guzzlers for that.RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 2:23 pmTeach me. I currently have three dino-mobiles that I own outright. How can I make it work to transition some/all of those to electric?Zaxxon wrote:I'm not looking to derail this thread, but the studies have been done--something like 90% of 2-car families could make it work right now for at least one of the vehicles, but don't. Largely because they don't know.
I can see the argument that if I was in the market to buy a new car, I could make an EV work. But I don’t see how I could make it work if I wasn’t already in the market to replace a car. And I’m not resistant. I *want* to only own EVs. I *want* to slap power walls on my house to get me off the grid. The money gods make it hard.
My rah-rah stance on EVs aside, these solutions are of course extremely important, too. Fewer miles are always a positive, and dropping an ICE vehicle with no replacement is awesome. I just generally don't bring it up because if you think people will attack inability to charge at home, wait until you see the reactions to 'just drive less.' Something that's both very difficult for a lot of folks due to the nature of America's geographic setup (and routinely terrible non-car layout) and also anathema to many Americans.Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:46 pm Likewise: When we eventually have to replace Wife's car, it will most likely be an EV. I hope that day is still 4-5 years off. Her Honda is 11 years old but only has 70k miles on it, and she's still fond of it. My Mazdarati is 4 years old and has 8,000 miles. It's unlikely that I'll ever replace it. When I get too old and stiff to climb in and out of the cockpit, we'll go down to sharing one practical (electric) car.
(edit because who even knows how punctuation works?)
No, it's a flaw in the average American's thinking. Hello, average American!RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 08, 2021 11:09 pm If the plan involves me buying a used Leaf, there’s a flaw in your plan.
I'm kidding, kind of. I don't know your circumstances, but 'actually need 3 dino-guzzlers as a middle/upper-middle class American with a home and garage' is a very specific use case. It's highly likely that most folks in your case are prime candidates for a cheapo used EV or PHEV for that 2nd or 3rd vehicle. Again, I don't know your specifics--entirely possible you do need all 3 of those, and it's not practically or financially feasible to swap any of the 3 out for a PHEV/BEV--especially if those two kids in college are commuting from your house. It's not so likely in the general case of homeowning 3-vehicle households, though. I get where you are coming from though, and my next vehicle will almost certainly be an EV or plug-in hybrid. But that’s years away (two kids in college).
I’m very close to needing four cars. Two kids that both commute to college on very different schedules (so that’s two cars), and right now my wife and I share the Camaro because we are both working from home most of the time. As soon as Army decides to stop letting me do that, we will have a transportation problem.Zaxxon wrote:No, it's a flaw in the average American's thinking. Hello, average American!
I'd suggest most of those people are willing to spend a lot more for a car which opens up a lot more interesting options.RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 8:51 pm To some people, a car is more than a practical conveyance. A used Leaf will not appeal to them, ever.
They're more reliable than ICE at elevation--no loss of power at lower O2 levels, and much more efficient going downhill. It's super-fun accelerating up I-70 relative to ICE vehicles.gilraen wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:40 am My 2002 Hyundai Sonata is at 200k miles, and the biggest distance I ever drive is when I go skiing 3-5 times a year. Is an EV reliable enough for mountain driving at elevation above 10000'? I have no idea, but that's the main consideration. We have 3 vehicles in the household but that does not equal 3 vehicles on the road. We help the climate change problem by driving very little overall, since we both work from home...
Range loss in very cold weather is a thing (~30% on my non-heat-pump Teslas, less on newer ones). Other than that, they're fine. If you're in a cold-weather climate, you should just be ensuring that the EV you have is rated for more than your actual needs, or that you can have it plugged in to precondition most of the time.LordMortis wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:48 am Elevation shouldn't be a problem for electricity. Cold is more a question for me but there are a growing number for BEVs in our cold climate which bodes well for my concerns. We'll see how many are sitting out come winter time. They weren't common place until this year, now I should be able to spot them easily enough.
and as I learned back in Feb, my Model 3 is WAYYYYYY better on snow than my Infinitis were (using similar all season tires).Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:43 amThey're more reliable than ICE at elevation--no loss of power at lower O2 levels, and much more efficient going downhill. It's super-fun accelerating up I-70 relative to ICE vehicles.gilraen wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:40 am My 2002 Hyundai Sonata is at 200k miles, and the biggest distance I ever drive is when I go skiing 3-5 times a year. Is an EV reliable enough for mountain driving at elevation above 10000'? I have no idea, but that's the main consideration. We have 3 vehicles in the household but that does not equal 3 vehicles on the road. We help the climate change problem by driving very little overall, since we both work from home...
I watched about 5 hours of video about the Tesla heat pump-based thermal management system and the octovalve system prior to ordering. It is crazy impressive. It was one of the factors that drove me to put in an order for one. I'm not too hung up on the range impact but if they put that much effort into turning their car into a Fremen stillsuit for heat? I mean when you leave the car it pulls the left over cabin heat into the battery. For real! It just showed me that they're willing to improve wherever they can...mechanically and technologically speaking.Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 12:29 pmRange loss in very cold weather is a thing (~30% on my non-heat-pump Teslas, less on newer ones). Other than that, they're fine. If you're in a cold-weather climate, you should just be ensuring that the EV you have is rated for more than your actual needs, or that you can have it plugged in to precondition most of the time.LordMortis wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:48 am Elevation shouldn't be a problem for electricity. Cold is more a question for me but there are a growing number for BEVs in our cold climate which bodes well for my concerns. We'll see how many are sitting out come winter time. They weren't common place until this year, now I should be able to spot them easily enough.
My brother. He's a bit crazy though. Even my kids pick on him for "using a brick." His old one was outdated when 3G shut down and his carrier sent him another flip phone. I don't think he'll ever get to a smart phone.
There are Jeff Vs in every area of life.
I spent last week talking to all sorts of people gathered for the U.N. climate summit in Glasgow, and it left me with profoundly mixed emotions.
Having been to most of the climate summits since Bali in 2007, I can tell you this one had a very different feel. I was awed by the energy of all the youth on the streets demanding that we rise to the challenge of global warming and by some of the amazing new technological and market fixes being proposed by innovators and investors. This was not the old days — everyone waiting for the deals cut by the priesthood of climate diplomats huddled behind closed doors. This was the many talking to the many — and I am buoyed by that.
But for me, there was one question that hovered over every promise coming out of this summit: When you see how hard it’s been for governments to get their citizens to just put on a mask in stores, or to get vaccinated, to protect themselves, their neighbors and their grandparents from being harmed or killed by Covid-19, how in the world are we going to get big majorities to work together globally and make the lifestyle sacrifices needed to dampen the increasingly destructive effects of global warming — for which there are treatments but no vaccine? That’s magical thinking, and it demands a realistic response.
...
Read this from CNBC’s website on Nov. 3 and weep: “The global supply of renewables will grow by 35 gigawatts from 2021 to 2022, but global power demand growth will go up by 100 gigawatts over the same period. … Countries will have to tap traditional fuel sources to meet the rest of the demand. … That shortfall will only widen as economies reopen and travel resumes,” which will spark “sharp rises in prices for natural gas, coal and electricity.”
We need to stop deluding ourselves that we can have it all — that we can do foolish things like close down nuclear plants in Germany that provided massive amounts of clean energy, just to show how green we are, and then ignore the fact that without sufficient renewables in place, Germany is now back to burning more of the dirtiest coal. This moral preening is really counterproductive.
Energy is a scale problem. It requires a TRANSITION, and that means a transition from the dirtiest fossil fuels to cleaner fuels — like natural gas or nuclear — to wind and solar and, eventually, sources that don’t today even exist. Those who propose ignoring that transition risk producing a huge backlash against the whole green movement this winter if people can’t heat their homes or run their factories.
We really have to get you up to our neck of the woods. I need a "salesman" (that's knowledgeable) to talk to her about EVs. Plus a test drive might be nice. And I think I promised to let you take a VR stroll.Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:43 amThey're more reliable than ICE at elevation--no loss of power at lower O2 levels, and much more efficient going downhill. It's super-fun accelerating up I-70 relative to ICE vehicles.gilraen wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:40 am My 2002 Hyundai Sonata is at 200k miles, and the biggest distance I ever drive is when I go skiing 3-5 times a year. Is an EV reliable enough for mountain driving at elevation above 10000'? I have no idea, but that's the main consideration. We have 3 vehicles in the household but that does not equal 3 vehicles on the road. We help the climate change problem by driving very little overall, since we both work from home...
You're welcome to come test drive the 3 whenever you'd like.TheMix wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 3:43 pmWe really have to get you up to our neck of the woods. I need a "salesman" (that's knowledgeable) to talk to her about EVs. Plus a test drive might be nice. And I think I promised to let you take a VR stroll.Zaxxon wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:43 amThey're more reliable than ICE at elevation--no loss of power at lower O2 levels, and much more efficient going downhill. It's super-fun accelerating up I-70 relative to ICE vehicles.gilraen wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 11:40 am My 2002 Hyundai Sonata is at 200k miles, and the biggest distance I ever drive is when I go skiing 3-5 times a year. Is an EV reliable enough for mountain driving at elevation above 10000'? I have no idea, but that's the main consideration. We have 3 vehicles in the household but that does not equal 3 vehicles on the road. We help the climate change problem by driving very little overall, since we both work from home...
I never have understood the pivot away from nuclear energy.
It's the economics. Nuclear energy has a very poor ROI and higher *direct* risk than nearly all the alternatives. Coal and natural gas have between 2 to 4 times the return per dollar and much of the risk is externalized. Capital also got burned last decade on new nuclear projects and has no interest investing in nuclear. Especially after Fukushima and the huge failure of the SCE&G nuclear project. Even if we did a carbon tax it'd be hard to get the ROI to a place to overcome the risks the market sees in nuclear projects. Government policy probably can't even correct for this one.