Kentucky Derby Picks

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dedewhale
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Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by dedewhale »

I am completely baffled by this years derby and still 24 hours out have 7 horses in the mix. I guess I will have to see what happens with the weather and track conditions. I do think the best horse got the crummy 1 post so am stuck. A few people here seem to really follow it...so I am curious to hear picks.

Here are my picks which will surely change. But I leaning toward Santiva (can a horse with only 1 win actually win this race?)

Right now I think the top are: Santiva, Soldat, Mucho Macho Man, Archarcharch, Pants on Fire,Shackelford and Nehro on a fast track (wet track things get changed drastically)
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Isgrimnur »

Uncle Mo has been scratched.
The departure of Uncle Mo due to a gastrointestinal infection that has caused him to lose nearly 70 pounds in the last month marks the third consecutive year one of the top contenders was scratched during Derby week.

In 2008, I Want Revenge, the morning-line favorite, was pulled from the Derby the day of the race with a leg injury. In 2009, Eskendereya came to Louisville looking like a superstar and a potential Triple Crown winner, and he likely would have been a big favorite in the Derby, but he was scratched almost as soon as he arrived at Churchill Downs (and then retired) when doctors detected swelling in his lower leg.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by DarkVulgar »

I was pulling for Uncle Mo to win. Now i'll have to root for Stay Thirsty to win. I'm semi family to the horses owner in that big weird Italian family way.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by mori »

Whatever horse Calvin Borel is riding.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Isgrimnur »

mori wrote:Whatever horse Calvin Borel is riding.
As with everything, there's a story:
“How many calls did I get for Calvin’s services for this year’s Derby?” [agent Jerry] Hissam asked rhetorically. “None ... not a one ... absolutely none. And why was that? Don’t ask me. I am mystified. You want an answer, go ask all the other Derby trainers.

“I admit we boxed ourselves in a little bit by sticking with Elite Alex that long, but we thought he could be pretty good and a long time ago I had a mentor named Windy Smith who taught me that loyalty to your trainers had to be a priority.”

In keeping with that, Borel and Hissam stuck with Elite Alex until his trainer, Tim Ritchey, announced after his wretched race in the Arkansas Derby that the horse was out of consideration for the Kentucky Derby.

“Well, there still were horses that needed a jock, but nobody ever asked us,” Hissam said.

So this is the horse Calvin Borel, King of Churchill Downs, will ride in on Saturday: His name is Twice the Appeal, an alumnus of Sunland Park. He went to the post seven times before he broke his maiden. Eight different jocks have ridden him in his 10 races. He has been disqualified twice. He has had two trainers.

When the track handicapper, Mike Battaglia, set his odds at 20-1 for the Derby, he commented: “If Calvin weren’t on him, he’d have been twice that.”
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Freezer-TPF- »

Sounds like a Hollywood script to me!
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Crabbs »

Any true Triple Crown contenders out there?

I've been out of the Horse Business for too long to know. I still watch the races every year, but after the triple crown I forget horse racing exists until that first weekend in May.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by mori »

Isgrimnur wrote:
mori wrote:Whatever horse Calvin Borel is riding.
As with everything, there's a story:
“How many calls did I get for Calvin’s services for this year’s Derby?” [agent Jerry] Hissam asked rhetorically. “None ... not a one ... absolutely none. And why was that? Don’t ask me. I am mystified. You want an answer, go ask all the other Derby trainers.

“I admit we boxed ourselves in a little bit by sticking with Elite Alex that long, but we thought he could be pretty good and a long time ago I had a mentor named Windy Smith who taught me that loyalty to your trainers had to be a priority.”

In keeping with that, Borel and Hissam stuck with Elite Alex until his trainer, Tim Ritchey, announced after his wretched race in the Arkansas Derby that the horse was out of consideration for the Kentucky Derby.

“Well, there still were horses that needed a jock, but nobody ever asked us,” Hissam said.

So this is the horse Calvin Borel, King of Churchill Downs, will ride in on Saturday: His name is Twice the Appeal, an alumnus of Sunland Park. He went to the post seven times before he broke his maiden. Eight different jocks have ridden him in his 10 races. He has been disqualified twice. He has had two trainers.

When the track handicapper, Mike Battaglia, set his odds at 20-1 for the Derby, he commented: “If Calvin weren’t on him, he’d have been twice that.”
Makes you think Calvin must be a world class prick and a PITA. But it you had a horse with a remote chance of winning, why wouldn't you reach out to him?
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Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Isgrimnur »

Hot chick syndrome. Everyone assumes he's already got a ride, so no one thinks to ask him.

Just spitballing...
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Tscott »

My dad called me up today and had me go with him to the OTB. I haven't bet on a horse in well over 15 years, and neither has he, and we don't know what we're doing.

I placed a boxed exacta bet on "Twice the Appeal" and "Paints on Fire". That's a bet on the Jockeys, Calvin Borel (mentioned above) and Rosie Napravnik (a cute 23 year old redhead who's trying to be the first woman to win the Derby). I also placed another bet on "Animal Kingdom" to win.

I'll see how lucky I am tomorrow.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Isgrimnur »

Tscott wrote:Rosie Napravnik (a cute 23 year old redhead who's trying to be the first woman to win the Derby)
No pic? For shame. Here, let me bail you out.

Image
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Odin »

I just popped in to say that I am apparently unable to see the word "Kentucky" without immediately thinking "fried chicken!!" Apparently I must not see the word "Kentucky" all that often, I guess.

Carry on with your horsies.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by triggercut »

Calvin is good people, and pretty well-liked. His rail-burning riding style can scare trainers who aren't used to him, though.

This year's crop of 3 year old horses might be the worst to go to the post at the Derby since 1986. These guys are just dead slow.

Obviously, speed in a race like this is all relative, but I don't think we've got anyone here capable of threatening the Triple Crown.

Nehro, Mucho Macho Man and Archarcharch to get a piece are my picks.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Crabbs »

triggercut wrote:Calvin is good people, and pretty well-liked. His rail-burning riding style can scare trainers who aren't used to him, though.

This year's crop of 3 year old horses might be the worst to go to the post at the Derby since 1986. These guys are just dead slow.

Obviously, speed in a race like this is all relative, but I don't think we've got anyone here capable of threatening the Triple Crown.

Nehro, Mucho Macho Man and Archarcharch to get a piece are my picks.
I Boxed those on a $2 exacta, we'll see what comes of it.

I put out $50 on various combos, see if anything gets lucky!
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Tscott »

Tscott wrote:I also placed another bet on "Animal Kingdom" to win.

I'll see how lucky I am tomorrow.
Wooooooooo!
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by mori »

Tscott wrote:
Tscott wrote:I also placed another bet on "Animal Kingdom" to win.

I'll see how lucky I am tomorrow.
Wooooooooo!
Good going! What was the payout?
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Tscott »

It's paying $43.80 on a $2 bet to win. I bet $10, so five times that is $219 :D

My poor dad. He had $10 on Nehro to win, and was pretty excited for a bit until Animal Kingdom came out of nowhere.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Crabbs »

Crabbs wrote:
triggercut wrote:Calvin is good people, and pretty well-liked. His rail-burning riding style can scare trainers who aren't used to him, though.

This year's crop of 3 year old horses might be the worst to go to the post at the Derby since 1986. These guys are just dead slow.

Obviously, speed in a race like this is all relative, but I don't think we've got anyone here capable of threatening the Triple Crown.

Nehro, Mucho Macho Man and Archarcharch to get a piece are my picks.
I Boxed those on a $2 exacta, we'll see what comes of it.

I put out $50 on various combos, see if anything gets lucky!
Had a $13.20 payout on Nero to place... but that still left me $36.80 in the hole. First time I've bet on Horses in a long time, forgot how it makes the race much more 'interesting.'

And grats Tscott!
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Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Octavious »

Damn wish I had bet. I totally would of picked ak based off the name.. :(
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by DarkVulgar »

Grats Tscott and Crabbs on the extra cash.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

I put in my bet on Monday based on proposed riders, current odds, and like the names of the horses.

Laparoux (or whatever his name is) was one three jockeys I bet on. He apparently switched horses to Animal Kingdom from my horse, whatever it was. Ah well.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by triggercut »

LordMortis wrote:I put in my bet on Monday based on proposed riders, current odds, and like the names of the horses.

Laparoux (or whatever his name is) was one three jockeys I bet on. He apparently switched horses to Animal Kingdom from my horse, whatever it was. Ah well.
Julien Leparoux rode Derby favorite Dialed In on Saturday, as he has on all the colt's wins and as he was scheduled from the beginning.

Animal Kingdom's scheduled rider was Robbie Albarado, who was taken off the mount on Friday night after AK's owner and trainer decided that a facial injury suffered on Thursday in the paddock might affect Albarado's concentration on Saturday. Veteran jock John Velazquez was tapped to ride Animal Kingdom on Friday night.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

triggercut wrote:
LordMortis wrote:I put in my bet on Monday based on proposed riders, current odds, and like the names of the horses.

Laparoux (or whatever his name is) was one three jockeys I bet on. He apparently switched horses to Animal Kingdom from my horse, whatever it was. Ah well.
Julien Leparoux rode Derby favorite Dialed In on Saturday, as he has on all the colt's wins and as he was scheduled from the beginning.

Animal Kingdom's scheduled rider was Robbie Albarado, who was taken off the mount on Friday night after AK's owner and trainer decided that a facial injury suffered on Thursday in the paddock might affect Albarado's concentration on Saturday. Veteran jock John Velazquez was tapped to ride Animal Kingdom on Friday night.
Velazquez, that's the other rider I bet him, Leparoux, and Borel on Monday because I was going to OctoCon. No biggie. It's all in fun. I don't lose big and I don't clean up. I usually bet because I go with my department to the track for lunch on the Friday before. I knew I was going to miss this year so I just left them numbers.

I figure I don't know shit about the ponies but those three seem to run at Churchill Downs(I think) a lot and have (or had this time last year) nice records. I like to take the three jockey that appeal to me the most and horses name I like and mix my bets. I fill in either the longshot or favorite blanks with the horses with the best recent records to get me to 6 horses and then make an assortment of bets. This is the first year I lost money ($44 got me $12.80, I think) so it works for me. It looks like the numbers I chose on Monday were an assortment of 1,3,4,9,10, and 19. I have no idea what translates to in terms of what happened.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Tscott »

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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by triggercut »

Really terrible news. The Baze family are some of the best jocks in America, and Michael was the youngest of an extended family and was showing as much talent as his better-known cousin Russell.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by dedewhale »

triggercut wrote:Really terrible news. The Baze family are some of the best jocks in America, and Michael was the youngest of an extended family and was showing as much talent as his better-known cousin Russell.
He happened to live next door to my good friends when he was on the Jersey circuit and was at some block parties...he was just a kid of maybe 18 or 19 but a really nice and shy. It is a shame and regardless of the cause shows the need for more help with a colony of jockeys and horse people hooked on drugs

tscott- actually Cory Nakatani rode Nehro, Michael was not in the race.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Tscott »

Ah, sorry. I totally read that wrong. He recently rode Nehro in a different race. :oops: I read "rode 2011 Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro to a second-place finish..." and completely glossed over the "...in the Louisiana Derby" part.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

Got my ponies picked, now I just need to figure out how I plan on picking them (and pray the jockey's don't change. Harumph)

I'll set up combos for Union Rags, Creative Cause, Gemologist, Liaison, and Went the Day Well as soon as the jockeys are more probable and I verify that I like their gate positions. (I refuse to bet on gate position 1 horse, no matter what the odds, who is riding, or how well it's done.)
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Chaz »

My GF wants to bet on the derby. I've never done this, and apparently neither has she. How do you accomplish such a feat?
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

Chaz wrote:My GF wants to bet on the derby. I've never done this, and apparently neither has she. How do you accomplish such a feat?
You can bet on line but it's more fun to go to your local track. You can pick up a book on the races there or you can look for people posting them online. Then you look for the horsies you like and you tend to place the following types of bets:

Win - Your horse wins
Place - Your horse comes first or second
Show - Your horse comes in the top three

Then the bets get more exotic where your chances of win go down dramatically but the odds make for dramatically large payouts. The common exotics are

exacta - you pick the first and second horse in order
trifecta - you pick the first, second, and third horses in order

Odds change based on how many people bet with or against your particular bet. They keep changing right up until the race. Like in most gambling terminology gets more confusing to make more complex simple.

So if you wanted an exacta or trifecta where any horse you pick can be part of the order you box your bet.

Past Performance sheets look like this:

http://www.horseracinginside.com/2012KentuckyDerby.pdf" target="_blank

(If this is theft say something and I will pull it down or edit it out using magic mod powers)

Probably better betting explanations:

http://www.ultimatecapper.com/how-to-bet-on-horses.htm" target="_blank



It's become an annual lunch tradition here. "The problem" is that I win enough every year that I keep betting more every year. This year (and last year) the betting seems to have gone from fun to real money. I'll be dropping fifty bucks today.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by Chaz »

She mostly just wants to watch the race and make that a bit more interesting, so she wants to place a one-off bet for the derby. Any suggestions for a decent site? I worry about accidentally using a shady one that will do shady things.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LawBeefaroni »

On the radio this morning they interviewed Paul LoDuca. I guess he's handicapping now. He totally sold me on not betting on Union Rags.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

Chaz wrote:She mostly just wants to watch the race and make that a bit more interesting, so she wants to place a one-off bet for the derby. Any suggestions for a decent site? I worry about accidentally using a shady one that will do shady things.
No idea. We like going to the track. And I'm not sure how internet gambling works. I might start with

http://www.drf.com/" target="_blank

They seems to be the most reputable horse racing site. I just don't know about gambling.




My decision has been made:

Dollar Exacta Box ($20)

4 8
4 13
4 15
4 20
8 13
8 15
8 20
15 13
15 20
13 20

Fifty Cent Trifecta Box ($6)

4 8 15

$2 Show ($10)

4
8
13
15
20

$2 Place ($8)

4
8
13
15

$2 Win ($6)

4
8
15
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote:On the radio this morning they interviewed Paul LoDuca. I guess he's handicapping now. He totally sold me on not betting on Union Rags.
You're killing me.

Why not bet oh Union Rags. That horse is sort of the foundation of my betting. You suddenly make me feel like I'm kissing fifty bucks goodbye.

Though, I like the idea of the odds of Union Rags winning going down. Every thing I'm reading is suggesting odds are going to change and UR is going to pick up favored status and that won't bode well for return on my money if it does do well.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Apparently he came out with a tongue tie on Tuesday. He's never used one before. The trainers said they were just playing around with it and he hasn't been seen with it since, but according to Lo Duca the horse has been sweating a lot more than normal and looking labored. IIRC, tongue ties are used to help them breathe easier. They're like Breath-rites for horses. Except if a horse isn't used to it they can be distracting.


Your bets are probably fine, I just like to eliminate favorites and go for the longer odds. With that, I'm liking Daddy Nose Best. Take Charge Indy too, with Borel on him and a decent post draw for Borel.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by dedewhale »

LoDuca has been an analyst with tvg (horse racing network) for many years and spends his summers mostly at Monmouth. He is a very good handicapper and really knows his stuff.

I think Union Rags is a very good horse but always seem to have an excuse and find traffic trouble. To that end, I think he is the horse to beat despite all these problems but I am going to try and beat him with something. I think Ill play Dullihan on top and then a lot of extoic wagers with Gemologist, Alpha, Bodemeister and Union Rags underneath in different combos.

I loved Dullihans prep race and think he will handle the distance with ease. The question is his ability to run on dirt. He ran in the bc juvenile there last year and came in 4th after getting bumped at the start. (the BC race was one of the toughest in years). I think he will be fine at a solid price of between 7 to 1 and 12-1.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LordMortis »

He's just trying to throw every one off the scent. yeah. yeah. That's the ticket.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by triggercut »

Before Derby week I was all over Creative Cause, but he's been a disaster this week, looking dull and uninterested. Some horses for whatever reason hate the Churchill strip. The price is damned attractive, but other than a flier I think I'll pass on his as a foundation.

I like Union Rags, I don't like his odds. As of a bit ago he was at 9/2, which is shying me away a bit.

On the other hand, I like Dullahan a lot.

I was tempted to toss Bodemeister...but 7-1 is very tempting. Gemologist is a little more interesting....

So. Bets:

Dullahan part wheel over Bode, Gem, CC, and Union Rags

Those 4 over Dullahan.

I'm also alive in the Oaks/Derby double with Bode and Rags.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by mori »

Bodemeister for the win. Take Charge Indy is my long shot.

Edit: I see TCI is at 10 to 1 so not much of a longshot. What a beautiful horse is Creative Cause.
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Re: Kentucky Derby Picks

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Well, in honor of that winner I'll have a bunch of 'nothers tonight.
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