Post-Withdrawal Iraq

[GreenGoo]

Any confidence I might have had (not much, ever) that Iraq was going to congeal into a workable central government was lost years ago when they simply refused to take the reins, letting the US do pretty much everything. The US was trying to get them to self govern since day one, almost. No one wanted to do it. Sure, they wanted the titles, bribes and everything else, but they NEVER wanted to do the work.

Colour me unsuprised that it has gone to hell in a hand basket almost instantly as the US withdraws. That was all but guaranteed to happen. The "mission" as outlined by Bush was a pipe dream. One I wanted to believe in, but was too cynical to actually do so.

I personally think the US has done all it can, short of staying in Iraq indefinitely, and the rest is up to Iraq. Sure the US could go back in now and start swatting flies, but they'll just fade away back into the hills and we're back where we started.

[Carpet_pissr]

I don't like being treated like an enemy. And I try not to be too rough with people who are feeling persecuted. But there's a limit on how much I can swallow before I have to say something.

My problem is that I'm like an annoying ex-smoker that is always harassing smokers with my anti-smoking bullshit.

I've been in msduncan's shoes, and I've done the things that he's been doing for years. From experience, it only stops when you realize that all of your anger and outrage is completely bullshit, and that you are being manipulated into feeling that way for someone else's gain. I found that I was always able to see that manipulation when dirty, evil Democrats did it. How they would lie around election time, and frighten little old people into voting for them by telling them all the scary things that Republicans were going to do to their Social Security checks or Medicare. It was all so obvious - as obvious as I'm sure it is to msduncan.

But then one day I noticed that the Republicans are completely full of shit too, engaging in their own bullshit propaganda war, just trying to turn citizens against each other for votes.

So I stopped caring about the noise, or parties or any of that shit. I started trying to treat issues as issues - without ideological baggage. Healthcare was the first one I tried to talk about here in that light. And in the course of just actually talking about the issue - free of people just yelling "Socialism!!", I came to change my mind - concluding that Free Markets can never adequately address large portions of the healthcare system.

Some issues, I have very liberal positions on. Others I have conservative positions on. And that's ok.

As I've said many times over the years - everyone is completely and utterly wrong about SOMETHING. And they have no idea what it is. The more passionately they believe something, the more they are potentially blinded to the faults of their position, which makes it more likely that they are wrong about one or more of those passionately held beliefs. So stop being passionate about them. Be rational about them. And if the facts determine that you are wrong, stop believing them. Believing wrong things in the face of evidence to the contrary is silly. Believing them passionately in the face of evidence to the contrary is dangerous.

Excellent, and interesting perspective.

If I told my father that he was being cajoled into being outraged/scared by Fox News, his all caps emails, and his far right talk radio hosts, he would tell me *I'm* the one being fooled by the administration, the left, MSM, etc. into thinking there WASN'T something to be outraged about.

I've mentioned before that it has really caused a rift between us, and unfortunately that rift has only grown deeper since then. You should hear him spout off about Common Core these days, and how it's affecting our children, but he has three kids, and I can assure you he barely cared that we even went to school, much less what and how they were teaching us. Amazing.

Now he is HULK SMASH outraged about teaching patterns and relations and the meaning of math to kids who aren't his.

[msduncan]

Have you had to try to deal with common core personally with your children? I have, and it's really bad. I don't buy into the conspiracy theories of why it was put into place and all of that -- I'm just telling you that it sucks plain and simple.

[Carpet_pissr]

Have you had to try to deal with common core personally with your children? I have, and it's really bad. I don't buy into the conspiracy theories of why it was put into place and all of that -- I'm just telling you that it sucks plain and simple.

Of course! I have three kids under the age of 10.

[Daveman]

Did they have to go with the name ISIS? Every time I hear a news story about them all I think of is Archer.

[Rip]

Did they have to go with the name ISIS? Every time I hear a news story about them all I think of is Archer.

[RunningMn9]

Have you had to try to deal with common core personally with your children? I have, and it's really bad. I don't buy into the conspiracy theories of why it was put into place and all of that -- I'm just telling you that it sucks plain and simple.

I have, and I have a theory about it. I think the main problem that parents struggle with is that they see all school work through the lens of their educational background. When they read a math problem, they interpret it based on what they were being taught.

I think that the problem is that they aren't being taught what we were taught - because people don't need to be taught some of these things anymore.

The word problems that I've seen - my brain converts them to the math problem. I see words and convert them to N times M is Y. Because we were forced to sit around learning how to do that shit in our heads for years on end.

But that's not what the word problem is testing. No one cares whether I can sit around multiplying numbers in my head anymore. It's a thoroughly useless skill. The problems were actually testing the child's ability to create a mathematical model of the problem.

Because universities and industry leaders (who are the ones helping to drive Common Core) know that multiplying numbers in my head is stupid, and that knowing how to construct mathematical models is significantly more useful to modern people.

That's my theory anyway, constructed after watching a lot of specific parental criticism.

I do know that these parents are *really* impressed by their ability to multiply simple numbers in their own head.

[LordMortis]

Did they have to go with the name ISIS? Every time I hear a news story about them all I think of is Archer.

Truth

[gbasden]

Have you had to try to deal with common core personally with your children? I have, and it's really bad. I don't buy into the conspiracy theories of why it was put into place and all of that -- I'm just telling you that it sucks plain and simple.

Yes. My wife and I have been doing common core with my son for two years now, and I don't see the problem. My wife is a scientist, and her reaction when she started looking at common core math was "Oh! This is putting in place all of the framework for advanced mathematics!"

I'm a dumb liberal arts major, so I don't know about that, but my kid is doing just fine with it so far. It's been interesting to watch him progress in math. Often, he understands one way to get the answer, but the question requires showing a different method. It's initially frustrating, but it's neat watching him finally get a different way to think about a problem.

[Daehawk]

Same

[Sepiche]

Some incredible BBC footage of Peshmerga getting attacked by Isis snipers:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27897696

[Grifman]

This reminds me of the Fall of Saigon (for those old enough to remember). The S Vietnamese army panicked after an NVA offensive in the Central Highlands, and then quickly fell apart. They fought hard at the gates of Saigon but it was too late by that point in time. According to the BBCl, the Iraqi army had 30,000 men defending Mosul, and they were routed by "hundreds" of jihadi's. If the army is that poor, can they really stop Baghdad from being taken?

[Isgrimnur]

I hope the roof of the Baghdad embassy can support the bigger choppers we have now.

[Kraken]

The army will fight to defend Shiite territory. It had no interest in Mosul or any other Sunni territory that it had occupied. It won't retake and hold those areas as long as Maliki is the dictator. But it is strong enough and motivated enough to defend Baghdad and the holy points south...especially with the help of the reviving Shiite militias.

The Vietnam analogy lacks the religious component that defines Iraq's division, not to mention dueling Cold War superpowers.

The real question is who will evict ISIS from the Sunni lands and who will take control after they're gone; terrorists suck at governing apart from their reign of terror. Iran? The Kurds? Proxies for either or both? It's unlikely to be the Maliki government; that territory is no longer part of Iraq in any practical sense and its army is a laughingstock. As much as they welcome the Shiite government's goons being driven out, though, I doubt that many Sunnis want to live under the ISIS version of paradise.

[Rip]

They should have let the Kurds take over the north long ago. If only the Turks wouldn't throw a hissy fit every time it gets proposed.

Perfect time for a story on Gertrude Bell

[Holman]

They should have let the Kurds take over the north long ago. If only the Turks wouldn't throw a hissy fit every time it gets proposed.

Perfect time for a story on Gertrude Bell

Even that is changing: Turkey Would Support Iraqi Kurds' Bid For Self-Rule, Spokesman Says In Historic Remark

In a statement that could have a dramatic impact on regional politics in the Middle East, a spokesman for Turkey's ruling party recently told a Kurdish media outlet that the Kurds in Iraq have the right to self-determination. The statement has been relatively overlooked so far, but could signal a shift in policy as Turkey has long been a principal opponent of Kurdish independence, which would mean a partitioning of Iraq.

"The Kurds of Iraq can decide for themselves the name and type of the entity they are living in," Huseyin Celik, a spokesman for the Justice and Development Party, told the Kurdish online news outlet Rudaw last week.

The Kurds have been effectively autonomous since 1991, when the U.S. established a no-fly zone over northern Iraq. Turkey, a strong U.S. ally, has long opposed the creation of an independent Kurdistan so that its own eastern region would not be swallowed into it. But Celik's statement indicates that the country may be starting to view an autonomous Kurdistan as a viable option -- a sort of bulwark against spreading extremism within a deeply unstable country.

[raydude]

Have you had to try to deal with common core personally with your children? I have, and it's really bad. I don't buy into the conspiracy theories of why it was put into place and all of that -- I'm just telling you that it sucks plain and simple.

I have, and I have a theory about it. I think the main problem that parents struggle with is that they see all school work through the lens of their educational background. When they read a math problem, they interpret it based on what they were being taught.

I think that the problem is that they aren't being taught what we were taught - because people don't need to be taught some of these things anymore.

The word problems that I've seen - my brain converts them to the math problem. I see words and convert them to N times M is Y. Because we were forced to sit around learning how to do that shit in our heads for years on end.

But that's not what the word problem is testing. No one cares whether I can sit around multiplying numbers in my head anymore. It's a thoroughly useless skill. The problems were actually testing the child's ability to create a mathematical model of the problem.

Because universities and industry leaders (who are the ones helping to drive Common Core) know that multiplying numbers in my head is stupid, and that knowing how to construct mathematical models is significantly more useful to modern people.

That's my theory anyway, constructed after watching a lot of specific parental criticism.

I do know that these parents are *really* impressed by their ability to multiply simple numbers in their own head.

My child is only 5 and we're in VA which technically isn't using the Common Core standard but they kind of are. In any case I wanted to see for myself what you were talking about in terms of the word problems and such and so I found some examples here: Why am I not surprised that National Review hates Common Core?

I actually find that I like them and can see how they can further my child's knowledge of math at every level. For example:

Problem 1: Number bonds. I think this is a great idea. Sure it seems stupid for low number problems like 7 + 7 but this paves the way for problem solving later in life, such as "If the bill is 1.87 for a cup of coffee how much should I give the cashier so that I get a quarter back?" Well, 87 cents broken up into coin bonds gives me 3 quarters, 1 dime, and 2 pennies. So If I give the cashier 2 dollars, 1 dime, and 2 pennies then I should get just 1 quarter back.

Problem 2: I think the point here is showing the student what is actually happening when you "borrow the one" in the subtraction problem. Looking back on it now the "borrow the one" explanation is kind of useless because you don't see that kind of explanation in higher level math. There is no such thing as "borrowing the one" in calculus for example. At least here you are visually representing the fact that there is a "conservation of numbers" and that there is no borrowing or lending going on.

Problem 3: This is a legit complaint. The parts should have been shaded. Hooray to the NR for finding a mistake.

Problem 4: What's the problem here? I know there should be 6 coins in the cup. I see five. Obviously there is 1 in the cup.

Problem 5: Ooooo, they are sneaking in the conceptualization of fractions. Shame on you Common Core for being so sneaky! (sarcasm)

Problem 6: People won't always have access to rulers. This seems to be developing the concept of using other measuring systems to estimate length. In a real world case, I'd like to know how far away that ice cream truck is to see if I can run and catch up to it to buy some ice cream. I know how long that car parked on the street next to it is. Hmmmm, I estimate that the truck is 5 car lengths away from me. Shucks, it is too far!

Problem 7: Yeah, yeah, we were raised on the concept of "borrowing a number" so it should be good enough for today's kids. Well, it sucks. It doesn't translate or build a foundation for higher math. Meanwhile, the concept of taking a 10 and regrouping it as ones or changing 62 + 82 into 60 + 80 + 2 + 2 teaches the commutative property of addition - which IS a foundation for algebra and higher math.

[LordMortis]

They should have let the Kurds take over the north long ago. If only the Turks wouldn't throw a hissy fit every time it gets proposed.

Perfect time for a story on Gertrude Bell

Even that is changing: Turkey Would Support Iraqi Kurds' Bid For Self-Rule, Spokesman Says In Historic Remark

In a statement that could have a dramatic impact on regional politics in the Middle East, a spokesman for Turkey's ruling party recently told a Kurdish media outlet that the Kurds in Iraq have the right to self-determination. The statement has been relatively overlooked so far, but could signal a shift in policy as Turkey has long been a principal opponent of Kurdish independence, which would mean a partitioning of Iraq.

"The Kurds of Iraq can decide for themselves the name and type of the entity they are living in," Huseyin Celik, a spokesman for the Justice and Development Party, told the Kurdish online news outlet Rudaw last week.

The Kurds have been effectively autonomous since 1991, when the U.S. established a no-fly zone over northern Iraq. Turkey, a strong U.S. ally, has long opposed the creation of an independent Kurdistan so that its own eastern region would not be swallowed into it. But Celik's statement indicates that the country may be starting to view an autonomous Kurdistan as a viable option -- a sort of bulwark against spreading extremism within a deeply unstable country.

Was listening to PBS while I was dosing off last night and the expert was discussion a Kurdish state. While they said Turkey would be a problem, the real problem is Iran. And that's what every thing comes down to. The real problem no matter which way you look to insert the US or remove the US from a solution is Iran.

I got nothing. I concur that way back in 1990, I think it was, when George the Elder determined we were going to war, that we should have commit to the Kurds then. But it's about 25 years too late for shoulda's.

I wish I knew what to do but the discourse here about disinformation from the right has blood boiling right now. I normally have a pretty big distaste for Jon Stewart deconstruction of all things conservative while leaving most things liberal alone but this on point for why I would like to see a collapse of the republican party and I don't even know what to think any more about the fact that there are enough people that buy into this trap that we demand these people make the laws.

http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/a6yqr ... about-iraq

[msteelers]

I know this is getting way off topic, but the Common Core complaints have always felt silly to me. I'm a former textbook editor for one of the major companies. Several of the examples listed in the National Review article came from my former employer.

I left the company before we started working on Common Core in any serious way, but none of the examples they listed above would have been out of place in the books I made. In fact, one of the last things I did was to compare the then current Common Core standards to the last non-Common Core book I worked on... and they matched up pretty well! I guarantee you that about 80% of these "new" textbooks are actually the old textbooks that have been tweaked to better meet the Common Core standards.

And the issues like with Problems 3 and 4 in the linked article? Errors like that happen all the damn time. When I first started at the company we were doing textbooks for Texas, and after the books were printed we went through and found literally thousands of errors in just the K-6 books. And that was before Common Core was even close to being a "thing".

[malchior]

Even that is changing: Turkey Would Support Iraqi Kurds' Bid For Self-Rule, Spokesman Says In Historic Remark

Perhaps they can even snap up this new zone should events favor them...

[Smoove_B]

Well, maybe now that they have control of the oil, everything will just work out, right?

[Fretmute]

I know this is getting way off topic, but the Common Core complaints have always felt silly to me.

The problem "8 - <blank> = <blank>" has an infinite number of solutions.

[msteelers]

I know this is getting way off topic, but the Common Core complaints have always felt silly to me.

The problem "8 - <blank> = <blank>" has an infinite number of solutions.

But that's not what the problem shows. The problem shows 8 split up into two groups. One group has 4 tokens, the other group is blank. It's pretty clear what this question is asking you to do, especially if you have gone through the lesson that hammers this idea repeatedly.

[msteelers]

I know this is getting way off topic, but the Common Core complaints have always felt silly to me.

The problem "8 - <blank> = <blank>" has an infinite number of solutions.

What's the issue? Asking young kids to create and solve their own math problems is nothing new. Making one of the addends be this or that number prevents Johnny from doing a simple series of "6+1, 7+1, 8+1," etc.

Again, that's not what the kid is supposed to do. It says to "draw the missing counters" and "write the numbers". It's an incredibly straight forward question with one right answer.

[Fretmute]

Again, that's not what the kid is supposed to do. It says to "draw the missing counters" and "write the numbers". It's an incredibly straight forward question with one right answer.

Hogwash.



Those are numbers.

[Holman]

I know this is getting way off topic, but the Common Core complaints have always felt silly to me.

The problem "8 - <blank> = <blank>" has an infinite number of solutions.

What's the issue? Asking young kids to create and solve their own math problems is nothing new. Making one of the addends be this or that number prevents Johnny from doing a simple series of "6+1, 7+1, 8+1," etc.

Again, that's not what the kid is supposed to do. It says to "draw the missing counters" and "write the numbers". It's an incredibly straight forward question with one right answer.

Right. I realized that I had missed the context, so I deleted my post. You nabbed a quote before I zapped it.

[msteelers]

Again, that's not what the kid is supposed to do. It says to "draw the missing counters" and "write the numbers". It's an incredibly straight forward question with one right answer.

Hogwash.



Those are numbers.

I can't tell if you are messing with me or not. This really is a very simple and common question.

[msteelers]

I know this is getting way off topic, but the Common Core complaints have always felt silly to me.

The problem "8 - <blank> = <blank>" has an infinite number of solutions.

What's the issue? Asking young kids to create and solve their own math problems is nothing new. Making one of the addends be this or that number prevents Johnny from doing a simple series of "6+1, 7+1, 8+1," etc.

Again, that's not what the kid is supposed to do. It says to "draw the missing counters" and "write the numbers". It's an incredibly straight forward question with one right answer.

Right. I realized that I had missed the context, so I deleted my post. You nabbed a quote before I zapped it.

Oops. Sorry!

[El Guapo]

They should have let the Kurds take over the north long ago. If only the Turks wouldn't throw a hissy fit every time it gets proposed.

Perfect time for a story on Gertrude Bell

Even that is changing: Turkey Would Support Iraqi Kurds' Bid For Self-Rule, Spokesman Says In Historic Remark

In a statement that could have a dramatic impact on regional politics in the Middle East, a spokesman for Turkey's ruling party recently told a Kurdish media outlet that the Kurds in Iraq have the right to self-determination. The statement has been relatively overlooked so far, but could signal a shift in policy as Turkey has long been a principal opponent of Kurdish independence, which would mean a partitioning of Iraq.

"The Kurds of Iraq can decide for themselves the name and type of the entity they are living in," Huseyin Celik, a spokesman for the Justice and Development Party, told the Kurdish online news outlet Rudaw last week.

The Kurds have been effectively autonomous since 1991, when the U.S. established a no-fly zone over northern Iraq. Turkey, a strong U.S. ally, has long opposed the creation of an independent Kurdistan so that its own eastern region would not be swallowed into it. But Celik's statement indicates that the country may be starting to view an autonomous Kurdistan as a viable option -- a sort of bulwark against spreading extremism within a deeply unstable country.

That's stunning, to the point where I wonder if the spokesman is going to find himself quickly out of a job. *Maybe* Turkey is hoping to control / annex Iraqi Kurdistan, but I really doubt it - no way the Iraqi Kurdish government will allow that to happen without a war. That war would be politically and economically costly, and would likely include fighting inside Turkish Kurdistan. But letting Iraqi Kurdistan become independent is obviously going to motivate the Turkish Kurds to push for independence / unification into Kurdistan.

I wonder if Turkey is hoping that, if Iraqi Kurdistan becomes independent, that a lot of Turkish Kurds may relocate to there. Indeed, the Turkish government may "encourage" such migration, which would allow Turkey to retain more of its Kurdish territory when the day of independence for its Kurds ultimately comes.

I will say, if Kurdish independence comes out of this that would be one really positive result from this. The Kurds are a people who really need and deserve a state of their own. And as a positive bonus, that state would very likely be overwhelmingly pro-American in a region that lacks a lot of states like that.

[Holman]

Iraq's Kurdish region has been more or less independent (in practice, and even semi-constitutionally) since the early years of the invasion. Turkey has been dealing with them on that basis for a decade. Maybe they now see a stable Kurdish buffer state as preferable to a chaotic or Iran-dominated Iraq.

[Fretmute]

I can't tell if you are messing with me or not. This really is a very simple and common question.

I get that they're doing an end around on algebra with first graders. That problem just strikes me as unnecessarily sloppy. "Write the numbers" is the most asinine order I have ever seen in math.

Furthermore, "number sentence"? My head asplode.

[edit] - Also, Iraq!

[ImLawBoy]

Wait . . .

Is ISIS pushing the Common Core now?

[El Guapo]

Iraq's Kurdish region has been more or less independent (in practice, and even semi-constitutionally) since the early years of the invasion. Turkey has been dealing with them on that basis for a decade. Maybe they now see a stable Kurdish buffer state as preferable to a chaotic or Iran-dominated Iraq.

The issue is not really the Iraqi Kurdish government, per se, but that Turkey has been fighting Kurdish separatists (militarily and otherwise) for decades. If they're willing to let Turkish Kurdistan drift away over time, this makes a lot of sense. But it's been quite the opposite - Turkish governments have been willing to use a solid amount of violence to keep the Kurds in Turkey.

It must be that Turkey sees the choices as independent Iraqi Kurdistan, ISIS controlled Kurdistan, or general civil war, and is willing to risk domestic instability that comes with the former in exchange for a reliable flow of oil from Kurdistan. That and/or the hope of relocating Turkish Kurds.

[El Guapo]

Wait . . .

Is ISIS pushing the Common Core now?

I have no doubt that you could find a website advancing that theory, actually.

[Rip]

Wait . . .

Is ISIS pushing the Common Core now?

Those BASTARDS!!

[Holman]

Iraq's Kurdish region has been more or less independent (in practice, and even semi-constitutionally) since the early years of the invasion. Turkey has been dealing with them on that basis for a decade. Maybe they now see a stable Kurdish buffer state as preferable to a chaotic or Iran-dominated Iraq.

The issue is not really the Iraqi Kurdish government, per se, but that Turkey has been fighting Kurdish separatists (militarily and otherwise) for decades. If they're willing to let Turkish Kurdistan drift away over time, this makes a lot of sense. But it's been quite the opposite - Turkish governments have been willing to use a solid amount of violence to keep the Kurds in Turkey.

It must be that Turkey sees the choices as independent Iraqi Kurdistan, ISIS controlled Kurdistan, or general civil war, and is willing to risk domestic instability that comes with the former in exchange for a reliable flow of oil from Kurdistan. That and/or the hope of relocating Turkish Kurds.

Yeah. No Turkish Kurds ever wanted to move to Saddam's Iraq, and probably few have opted for post-Saddam Iraq. But an independent Kurdistan would be a huge magnet. Plus, an independent Kurdistan poses no military threat to Turkey because NATO. It suddenly seems like a win-win for Ankara.

[El Guapo]

Iraq's Kurdish region has been more or less independent (in practice, and even semi-constitutionally) since the early years of the invasion. Turkey has been dealing with them on that basis for a decade. Maybe they now see a stable Kurdish buffer state as preferable to a chaotic or Iran-dominated Iraq.

The issue is not really the Iraqi Kurdish government, per se, but that Turkey has been fighting Kurdish separatists (militarily and otherwise) for decades. If they're willing to let Turkish Kurdistan drift away over time, this makes a lot of sense. But it's been quite the opposite - Turkish governments have been willing to use a solid amount of violence to keep the Kurds in Turkey.

It must be that Turkey sees the choices as independent Iraqi Kurdistan, ISIS controlled Kurdistan, or general civil war, and is willing to risk domestic instability that comes with the former in exchange for a reliable flow of oil from Kurdistan. That and/or the hope of relocating Turkish Kurds.

Yeah. No Turkish Kurds ever wanted to move to Saddam's Iraq, and probably few have opted for post-Saddam Iraq. But an independent Kurdistan would be a huge magnet. Plus, an independent Kurdistan poses no military threat to Turkey because NATO. It suddenly seems like a win-win for Ankara.

Oh, the danger to Turkey from Iraqi Kurdistan is not at all military, it's that it will spark a separatist movement that would cost Turkey its Kurdish territory. If you check this map, that's basically most of southeastern Turkey.

So it's not at all a win-win. It's a maybe win, quite possibly lose a huge chunk of territory in the long run.

[RunningMn9]

The problem "8 - <blank> = <blank>" has an infinite number of solutions.

Why did you say this? Based on the entire question as presented, that's obviously not true. /confused

[Holman]

Oh, the danger to Turkey from Iraqi Kurdistan is not at all military, it's that it will spark a separatist movement that would cost Turkey its Kurdish territory. If you check this map, that's basically most of southeastern Turkey.

So it's not at all a win-win. It's a maybe win, quite possibly lose a huge chunk of territory in the long run.

But wasn't that separatist movement sparked long ago? Turkey is always involved in low-level repression of Kurds. A free Kurdistan next door would give the separatists somewhere to go, and Turkey's support for it would come at the price of international guarantees of both countries' integrity. Both the Turks and the Kurds would make big gains entirely at Baghdad's expense.

The simplest calculation is that Turks just see a free Kurdistan as inevitable. Playing it this way makes them look like regional good guys while giving them a stronger hand domestically.

[El Guapo]

Oh, the danger to Turkey from Iraqi Kurdistan is not at all military, it's that it will spark a separatist movement that would cost Turkey its Kurdish territory. If you check this map, that's basically most of southeastern Turkey.

So it's not at all a win-win. It's a maybe win, quite possibly lose a huge chunk of territory in the long run.

But wasn't that separatist movement sparked long ago? Turkey is always involved in low-level repression of Kurds. A free Kurdistan next door would give the separatists somewhere to go, and Turkey's support for it would come at the price of international guarantees of both countries' integrity. Both the Turks and the Kurds would make big gains entirely at Baghdad's expense.

The simplest calculation is that Turks just see a free Kurdistan as inevitable. Playing it this way makes them look like regional good guys while giving them a stronger hand domestically.

The Kurdish separatist movement in Turkey started a long time ago, and it's gone through periods of relatively activeness and dormancy (though it never goes away entirely).

An independent Iraqi Kurdistan would not at all make the separatist movement go away. The Kurds don't just want *any* Kurdish state, they want a Kurdish state that encompasses all of Kurdistan (as they see it). What exactly that would look like in terms of borders is not certain, but it would almost certainly include a large chunk of what is now Turkey. Some Kurds would likely move to IRaqi Kurdistan, but not the millions that would be needed to make Turkish Kurdistan not-Kurdish. So Iraqi Kurdistan would not make the separatists go away; on the contrary it would very likely spark them to push for separation and unification with Iraqi Kurdistan.

If they do see a Kurdish state as inevitable (which would be an enormous shift for Turkey), they may see this as an opportunity to shape the borders somewhat, by incentivizing Turkish immigration and Kurdish migration in areas where the population is closer to even and which are strategically important for some reason or another.