Political Randomness

[disarm]

But what about antifa!

Oh well...libraries are really only useful to people with open minds anyway

[malchior]

Don't mistake my predictive language to be backed up by a predictive model.

[dbt1949]

It doesn't really matter, as far as the whole country is concerned, who wins the presidency. Most everybody is still going to be unhappy.

[hepcat]

Not Putin.

[stessier]

I wasn't sure where to put this. I was impressed with how calm Buttegieg remained. Talking about EVs and their affordability.

[Pyperkub]

It doesn't really matter, as far as the whole country is concerned, who wins the presidency. Most everybody is still going to be unhappy.

Income inequality and Federal Reps (and a lot of State) who only listen to the big donors and/or party machines that it has enabled are a key piece of this for everyone.

Example:

For billionaire Ken Griffin, it was well worth spending $54 million to ensure he and other rich Illinoisans wouldn’t have to pay more tax...

...For Griffin and many of his fellow ultrawealthy Illinoisans, spending even such a vast amount was well worth it when compared with what a tax hike might have cost them.

According to the data, Griffin averaged an annual income of $1.7 billion from 2013 to 2018. That was the fourth-highest in the country, behind only the likes of Bill Gates.

Using that average income as a guideline, the new state tax increase, which aimed to raise the rate from 5% to 8% on the highest incomes, would have cost Griffin around $51 million every year in extra tax. In especially good years — in 2018, Griffin reported income of almost $2.9 billion — he might have been forced to pay more than $80 million more.

Guess who ends up making that difference up? Guess how much of those savings went into buying more policies...

[LawBeefaroni]

Griffin still moved out this year, fleeing to Florida. I guess the savings weren't enough for him.

[RM2]

Don't know what thread to put this in really it is just an observation of something I saw yesterday so I will stick it here. I live in a very republican part of NJ, Sussex county for those who are familiar. Any way I was running errands yesterday and saw a front window of a business that had a sticker that read something Like do not ever forget Jan. 6 when trump followers attacked the US capital. Very surprised to see that, at least gave me a smile even though here it is just pissing in the wind.

[Unagi]

Don't know what thread to put this in really it is just an observation of something I saw yesterday so I will stick it here. I live in a very republican part of NJ, Sussex county for those who are familiar. Any way I was running errands yesterday and saw a front window of a business that had a sticker that read something Like do not ever forget Jan. 6 when trump followers attacked the US capital. Very surprised to see that, at least gave me a smile even though here it is just pissing in the wind.

I take some heart in that too.


Maybe if someone else is shitting the bed, pissing into the wind is the right way to wake em up.

[LawBeefaroni]

Well, there's also the sign at the DOJ that says, "Do not Ever Prosecute Jan 6."

[hepcat]

Hey Smoove, Jersey now has roaming seek and destroy councilfolk.

Disturbing video below, although the guy is fine (skip to 56 second mark). That she then drove off and failed to report it for six hours is pretty ballsy. New Jersey Strong!

Spoiler:

Edit: it’s obvious he rode right through a red light. But man, at least stop to make sure they’re okay.

[Daehawk]

Why isn't she arrested by now??

[Jaymann]

A fraction of a second sooner and it would have been a direct broadside. I like how the pedestrian returns the guy's flip flop.

[Smoove_B]

Edit: it’s obvious he rode right through a red light. But man, at least stop to make sure they’re okay.

Yeah, it's been in the major news outlets here locally, but I don't think anything will happen. She'll probably get a ticket for leaving the scene but I'd be surprised if anything else comes of it. She was just elected so no way she's giving up that seat. It's probably 3 out of 10 Carlos Danger severity at this point.

[hepcat]

She has the worst luck with autos. There are also videos of her trying to convince a Jersey cop not to tow her car after she parks illegally and blocks trucks trying to turn onto a street. She name drops a few times. But the cop cracks me up because absolutely nothing she does fazes him. When she drops the name of someone in the mayor’s office, he just says, “I don’t know who that is.”

Spoiler:

[malchior]

FWIW a hit in run in NJ is both a traffic offense and a felony crime so she's in significant legal trouble no matter who was at fault in the traffic collision. If they don't charge her via indictment that is. It isn't unthinkable the DA will not. Hudson County is very corrupt.

[hepcat]

...unless her family is in waste management.

[LawBeefaroni]

She thought it was a pigeon. Do you expect someone to stop and check on a pigeon?

[Blackhawk]

She should be arrested and charged. The funny thing is, had she stopped she probably would have been found to be faultless. He rode around the cars in his lane (blocking oncoming traffic's view) and into an intersection through a red light without even slowing down.

I wonder if she'd been drinking? Not as a factor (necessarily) in the accident, but as the reason she didn't stop.

[Blackhawk]

She thought it was a pigeon. Do you expect someone to stop and check on a pigeon?

[Smoove_B]

I wonder if she'd been drinking? Not as a factor (necessarily) in the accident, but as the reason she didn't stop.

It was 8 am, so...maybe?

I'm guessing she didn't stop because he eye weren't on the road. She was probably distracted - note she doesn't swerve or slow down - nothing. She hit him, he went flying and when her eyes came back up to the road there was nothing there, so she kept going.

[hepcat]

I don’t think you could be unaware that you hit someone. That’s a rather significant sound and impact. It was also broad daylight so she’d have to be blind not to see what happened in her rear view mirror.

My guess is she panicked when she looked up from her phone and realized what happened, and drove off on purpose. Later she turned herself in either because her conscience caught up with her, or she found out it was all on camera.

[Carpet_pissr]

“China warns its military will 'not sit idly by' if Pelosi visits Taiwan”

This Reuters headline struck me as quite strange. Unsure if it’s due to the implications, or just weird wording.

I would have thought the Chinese would be well aware of how little power and sway the Democrats have right now. Not to mention a visit by an aged out D elder who’s already been challenged and likely won’t be around much longer.

[LordMortis]

“China warns its military will 'not sit idly by' if Pelosi visits Taiwan”

This Reuters headline struck me as quite strange. Unsure if it’s due to the implications, or just weird wording.

I would have thought the Chinese would be well aware of how little power and sway the Democrats have right now. Not to mention a visit by an aged out D elder who’s already been challenged and likely won’t be around much longer.

China is interested in flexing its might and the US is used to always doing whatever it wants without consideration (other than D or R at this point in time).

[El Guapo]

“China warns its military will 'not sit idly by' if Pelosi visits Taiwan”

This Reuters headline struck me as quite strange. Unsure if it’s due to the implications, or just weird wording.

I would have thought the Chinese would be well aware of how little power and sway the Democrats have right now. Not to mention a visit by an aged out D elder who’s already been challenged and likely won’t be around much longer.

China doesn't care if Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan; rather, they care if the U.S. Speaker of the House visits Taiwan. China wants Taiwan to be seen as much as possible as a rogue province, therefore anything that looks like foreign countries (especially powerful ones like the U.S.) treating Taiwan as a sovereign state are a threat. Doesn't matter if she's powerful or influential or not, it's problematic for China by virtue of her title.

[malchior]

What's sort of annoying about all this is sort of a self-created mess. The President has primacy in foreign relations so you'd typically see some level of deference to the President's wishes where there are tensions. Doubly so for by a member of his own party.

[LawBeefaroni]

If Taiwan were a province of China, they could just deny entry to Pelosi. They can't, ergo...

[El Guapo]

What's sort of annoying about all this is sort of a self-created mess. The President has primacy in foreign relations so you'd typically see some level of deference to the President's wishes where there are tensions. Doubly so for by a member of his own party.

Yeah, though at the same time...I do want her to go. Taiwan is important and I want to help it thrive as an independent country. From Pelosi's perspective this is probably her last chance to this.

[malchior]

What's sort of annoying about all this is sort of a self-created mess. The President has primacy in foreign relations so you'd typically see some level of deference to the President's wishes where there are tensions. Doubly so for by a member of his own party.

Yeah, though at the same time...I do want her to go. Taiwan is important and I want to help it thrive as an independent country.

In this abstract sense sure. The way this was handled and the timing weigh heavily against going *now*. Especially when handed an out with that COVID diagnosis.

From Pelosi's perspective this is probably her last chance to this.

Absolutely but some things are bigger than oneself. FWIW I think we might be in agreement that this is a large part behind what is driving the decision to go.

And IMO that is a childish impulse. I think decisions made like this are driving the decadence we see throughout our political system. Everyone feels like they are owed something. Many of her era act like children chasing individual prizes when we desperately need adult supervision.

[LordMortis]

What's sort of annoying about all this is sort of a self-created mess. The President has primacy in foreign relations so you'd typically see some level of deference to the President's wishes where there are tensions. Doubly so for by a member of his own party.

Yeah, though at the same time...I do want her to go. Taiwan is important and I want to help it thrive as an independent country. From Pelosi's perspective this is probably her last chance to this.

To press her husband's interests in chip manufacture?

[malchior]

What's sort of annoying about all this is sort of a self-created mess. The President has primacy in foreign relations so you'd typically see some level of deference to the President's wishes where there are tensions. Doubly so for by a member of his own party.

Yeah, though at the same time...I do want her to go. Taiwan is important and I want to help it thrive as an independent country. From Pelosi's perspective this is probably her last chance to this.

To press her husband's interests in chip manufacture?

This is where the geopolitics get tricky though. This is actually one of the legitimate reasons for a senior US leader to go there. The CHIPS Act passing probably has the Taiwanese government in knots right now. Our domestic weakness in microchip production may be remedied. And that is a key pillar of Taiwan's security strategy. It is the basis of protection by so many other powers. Sending someone over to show solidarity *now* is meaningful but the realpolitik is we need China's peacefulness more than we need Taiwan as an example of democracy long-term. As shitty as that is.

[El Guapo]

What's sort of annoying about all this is sort of a self-created mess. The President has primacy in foreign relations so you'd typically see some level of deference to the President's wishes where there are tensions. Doubly so for by a member of his own party.

Yeah, though at the same time...I do want her to go. Taiwan is important and I want to help it thrive as an independent country.

In this abstract sense sure. The way this was handled and the timing weigh heavily against going *now*. Especially when handed an out with that COVID diagnosis.

From Pelosi's perspective this is probably her last chance to this.

Absolutely but some things are bigger than oneself. FWIW I think we might be in agreement that this is a large part behind what is driving the decision to go.

And IMO that is a childish impulse. I think decisions made like this are driving the decadence we see throughout our political system. Everyone feels like they are owed something. Many of her era act like children chasing individual prizes when we desperately need adult supervision.

Well, this is her last chance to do it, but without being able to see into her head I don't know if I would say that it's a childish / selfish impulse. From her perspective she's facing the near certainty that Trumpified Kevin McCarthy is going to be her successor. So presumably she's looking around and assessing what good can she do with her office before the barbarians storm the gates.

[Kraken]

What's sort of annoying about all this is sort of a self-created mess. The President has primacy in foreign relations so you'd typically see some level of deference to the President's wishes where there are tensions. Doubly so for by a member of his own party.

Yeah, though at the same time...I do want her to go. Taiwan is important and I want to help it thrive as an independent country.

In this abstract sense sure. The way this was handled and the timing weigh heavily against going *now*. Especially when handed an out with that COVID diagnosis.

From Pelosi's perspective this is probably her last chance to this.

Absolutely but some things are bigger than oneself. FWIW I think we might be in agreement that this is a large part behind what is driving the decision to go.

And IMO that is a childish impulse. I think decisions made like this are driving the decadence we see throughout our political system. Everyone feels like they are owed something. Many of her era act like children chasing individual prizes when we desperately need adult supervision.

Well, this is her last chance to do it, but without being able to see into her head I don't know if I would say that it's a childish / selfish impulse. From her perspective she's facing the near certainty that Trumpified Kevin McCarthy is going to be her successor. So presumably she's looking around and assessing what good can she do with her office before the barbarians storm the gates.

I read that Pelosi has been a strong advocate for Taiwanese independence throughout her career, which is why she wants to make this visit. It's important to her and to US foreign policy. She is almost surely going to retire in a few months and this is her last chance to have an impact. One does hope that she and Biden at least discussed it, since foreign policy isn't in the Speaker's wheelhouse.

[$iljanus]

What's sort of annoying about all this is sort of a self-created mess. The President has primacy in foreign relations so you'd typically see some level of deference to the President's wishes where there are tensions. Doubly so for by a member of his own party.

Yeah, though at the same time...I do want her to go. Taiwan is important and I want to help it thrive as an independent country.

In this abstract sense sure. The way this was handled and the timing weigh heavily against going *now*. Especially when handed an out with that COVID diagnosis.

From Pelosi's perspective this is probably her last chance to this.

Absolutely but some things are bigger than oneself. FWIW I think we might be in agreement that this is a large part behind what is driving the decision to go.

And IMO that is a childish impulse. I think decisions made like this are driving the decadence we see throughout our political system. Everyone feels like they are owed something. Many of her era act like children chasing individual prizes when we desperately need adult supervision.

Well, this is her last chance to do it, but without being able to see into her head I don't know if I would say that it's a childish / selfish impulse. From her perspective she's facing the near certainty that Trumpified Kevin McCarthy is going to be her successor. So presumably she's looking around and assessing what good can she do with her office before the barbarians storm the gates.

I read that Pelosi has been a strong advocate for Taiwanese independence throughout her career, which is why she wants to make this visit. It's important to her and to US foreign policy. She is almost surely going to retire in a few months and this is her last chance to have an impact. One does hope that she and Biden at least discussed it, since foreign policy isn't in the Speaker's wheelhouse.

I’m baffled however by what impact such a visit will have in regards to Taiwanese-US relations? Taiwan had committed to building a 12 billion dollar plant in Arizona and the recent chip act will help make that possible. Biden has been vocal in his support for Taiwan and there are probably some lucrative arms deals in the pipeline which will take place independent of Pelosi’s visit. A nice trade delegation to Taiwan with some US tech execs and some Department of Commerce functionaries I can understand happening.

[malchior]

Well, this is her last chance to do it, but without being able to see into her head I don't know if I would say that it's a childish / selfish impulse. From her perspective she's facing the near certainty that Trumpified Kevin McCarthy is going to be her successor. So presumably she's looking around and assessing what good can she do with her office before the barbarians storm the gates.

And that's fair. I could abstract it a bit and say that our broken system encourages this sort of foreign policy engagement where we now see unofficial ambassadors running around doing random things because they feel like it. It's not entirely unprecedented but I can't even find an occasion where the Speaker of the House is ignoring the wishes of their own party leader and military warnings against the activity. Heck it is not hard to read into all this that administration felt it needed to air the warnings out in the public to protect itself in case this goes south.

Anyway, when I'm talking about childishness, I see it throughout the government. Even if it isn't an 'individual' problem. I think you can even throw Alito's unwise comments in this pile.There is no good reason for a Supreme Court judge to bash foreign leaders. I'm sure someone could dig up something in our past like this perhaps but it honestly seems to be fairly abnormal (even if it is a bit forgettable in the scheme of things). On top, it's ironic how they want to not be treated by politicians but then act like them regularly. This is why I feel like we easily could appear and are a country that has no adult supervision.

[Isgrimnur]

CNN: Alex Jones on trial

After the jury had left the courtroom following Jones' testimony, Mark Bankston, the attorney for the plaintiffs, accused Jones and his attorney, Federico Andino Reynal, of trying to "poison" the trial. Bankston said that they would file a motion for sanctions against both Jones and Reynal.

Bankston specifically said Jones broke court orders when he attempted to discuss his net worth from the stand.

"Mr. Jones just intentionally did that in violation of your order to attempt to poison this compensatory damage verdict to try to tell this jury that he's broke, and he's not, and that's in violation of your order," Bankston said to the judge.

Judge Maya Guerra Gamble said she will hear any motions officially filed for sanctions against Jones and Reynal after the conclusion of the trial.

But Gamble admonished Jones for his behavior and said he had already violated his oath to tell the truth twice.

"Mr. Jones, you may not say to this jury that you complied with discovery. That is not true. You may not say it again. You may not tell this jury that you are bankrupt. That is also not true," Gamble said.

"You are already under oath to tell the truth," Gamble added. "You've already violated that oath twice today, in just those two examples. It seems absurd to instruct you again that you must tell the truth while you testify. Yet here I am again."

"This is not your show," Gamble added.

Jones attempted to tell Gamble that he believed he was telling the truth.

"You believe everything you say is true, but your beliefs do not make something true," Gamble said. "That is that is what we're doing here. Just because you claim to think something is true does not make it true. It does not protect you. It is not allowed. You're under oath. That means things must actually be true when you say them."

[stessier]

Video is always more fun. That is one unhappy judge.

[LawBeefaroni]

No one has told the judge we're post-truth? "It's true if you believe it" is pretty much our national mantra now.

[Pyperkub]

What's sort of annoying about all this is sort of a self-created mess. The President has primacy in foreign relations so you'd typically see some level of deference to the President's wishes where there are tensions. Doubly so for by a member of his own party.

Yeah, though at the same time...I do want her to go. Taiwan is important and I want to help it thrive as an independent country.

In this abstract sense sure. The way this was handled and the timing weigh heavily against going *now*. Especially when handed an out with that COVID diagnosis.

From Pelosi's perspective this is probably her last chance to this.

Absolutely but some things are bigger than oneself. FWIW I think we might be in agreement that this is a large part behind what is driving the decision to go.

And IMO that is a childish impulse. I think decisions made like this are driving the decadence we see throughout our political system. Everyone feels like they are owed something. Many of her era act like children chasing individual prizes when we desperately need adult supervision.

Well, this is her last chance to do it, but without being able to see into her head I don't know if I would say that it's a childish / selfish impulse. From her perspective she's facing the near certainty that Trumpified Kevin McCarthy is going to be her successor. So presumably she's looking around and assessing what good can she do with her office before the barbarians storm the gates.

I read that Pelosi has been a strong advocate for Taiwanese independence throughout her career, which is why she wants to make this visit. It's important to her and to US foreign policy. She is almost surely going to retire in a few months and this is her last chance to have an impact. One does hope that she and Biden at least discussed it, since foreign policy isn't in the Speaker's wheelhouse.

I’m baffled however by what impact such a visit will have in regards to Taiwanese-US relations? Taiwan had committed to building a 12 billion dollar plant in Arizona and the recent chip act will help make that possible. Biden has been vocal in his support for Taiwan and there are probably some lucrative arms deals in the pipeline which will take place independent of Pelosi’s visit. A nice trade delegation to Taiwan with some US tech execs and some Department of Commerce functionaries I can understand happening.

One of the main concerns with the Russian invasion of Ukraine was that China was thinking that the West was weak and would invade Taiwan while the west was dithering about Ukraine. Russia definitely didn't reflect such a forceful response, economically or in terms of military aid.

Remember that China convinced Russia to delay the invasion until after the Olympics were over and that china's propaganda has long been that the west is weak and in decline.

However, the West had an extremely strong response, and Russia's mighty army is struggling. A lot. (remember that Russia thought it would be over in two weeks). And Russia's economy is going to be hurting for decades from the sanctions.

This is a great time for a message to China that the West will also stand up for Taiwan and for letting China know that a move on Taiwan will be met with resilience.

Of course, if we're stupid enough to elect Trump again, they might invade in his first year.

[El Guapo]

The other thing is that part of the argument for the CHIPS Act is that the West is heavily dependent on China & Taiwan for semiconductor chips, so the CHIPS Act is trying to get a semiconductor chip industry going domestically in the U.S. so that if China takes over Taiwan then we won't have to face China having a near monopoly on such an essential product. One worry is that China could perceive this as the U.S. getting ready to abandon Taiwan, which could prompt China to get ready to invade Taiwan.

Part of the justification for the visit now is to clearly signal that the CHIPS Act doesn't mean that.