Ukraine

[waitingtoconnect]

Depends on what "wins" means. If Ukraine cedes its occupied territory in exchange for peace, which is the likeliest outcome, Putin will be emboldened to go further. I don't *think* he will directly invade a NATO country, but he will consider the rest of Ukraine to be unfinished business, at a minimum.

It also depends on a lot of other things. Like for example, does Trump win in November and then pull the United States out of NATO in 2025. If NATO is dissolved or greatly weakened by the withdrawal of the United States, then Russia is going to be emboldened to go much, much further. If Biden wins, and Ukraine eventually agrees to cede some / all of the occupied territory, the question then becomes whether Ukraine is going to be formally admitted to NATO in the near term. If so...Russia may have little choice but to stop there.

So what if Agent Orange wins but the NATO countries pay up their "protection" money. Will he pull out anyway?

I think so. I don't think it's about the money. I think he's just non-cooperative and coming to anyone else's aid doesn't benefit him and isn't America First!

You know theres a small oart of me that hopes it goes like this.
Trump wins.
Trump gets us pulled out of Nato.
The day after that we get invaded. By Russia and their allies to add to the irony.
We start losing.
Trump asks for help.
Nato tells him to pound sand.
I realize this is my version of cutting off my nose to spite my face but still...

Realistically. How much trouble would we be in without Nato backing us up in an invasion scenerio?

If the Russian military can't really conquer Ukraine, there's no way that it can conquer the United States. Nor would Russia have any real interest in trying. It's the Baltic states, Finland, and maybe Poland that are are in the line of fire if Russia really got rolling.

The issue is the far right alliance (basically CPAC conference goers) developing around Putin-Trump-Orban-Modi. If far right governments come in the UK and France and possibly Germany they would also join this alliance.

Already in the UK prominent conservative figures like Farange and ex Pm Truss are calling for Trump to “liberate them” from “woke”.

I can see US troops being used under Trump to save “conservative” Christian people in other countries and every possibility trump will set the west on fire while Putin laughs.

[Victoria Raverna]

Depends on what "wins" means. If Ukraine cedes its occupied territory in exchange for peace, which is the likeliest outcome, Putin will be emboldened to go further. I don't *think* he will directly invade a NATO country, but he will consider the rest of Ukraine to be unfinished business, at a minimum.

It also depends on a lot of other things. Like for example, does Trump win in November and then pull the United States out of NATO in 2025. If NATO is dissolved or greatly weakened by the withdrawal of the United States, then Russia is going to be emboldened to go much, much further. If Biden wins, and Ukraine eventually agrees to cede some / all of the occupied territory, the question then becomes whether Ukraine is going to be formally admitted to NATO in the near term. If so...Russia may have little choice but to stop there.

So what if Agent Orange wins but the NATO countries pay up their "protection" money. Will he pull out anyway?

Probably. First, you have to bear in mind that when Trump is talking about other NATO countries not paying, it's not money that they owe to the United States or to NATO. It's that they're not spending the required amount of their budgets on their military. And I doubt Trump is going to know or care about the details of that. Second, Trump is essentially a creature of Russian propaganda at this point. He just thinks "NATO bad".

Now, there is a law on the books now requiring congressional approval to withdraw from NATO. So it does matter whether Democrats hold either house of Congress, whether any Republicans would defy Trump on NATO (unlikely, but not out of the question), and/or whether Trump just ignores that law.

Isn't Trump going to be a dictator for a day?

[Punisher]

Isn't Trump going to be a dictator for a day?

Is th8s even a remotely realistic possibility?
Like what would have to happen for something like this to take place?
Same question in regards to a 3rd term.
Or becoming a "king"
How much of this is exaggeration, venting, etc vs reality?

[Jaymann]

Isn't Trump going to be a dictator for a day?

Is th8s even a remotely realistic possibility?
Like what would have to happen for something like this to take place?
Same question in regards to a 3rd term.
Or becoming a "king"
How much of this is exaggeration, venting, etc vs reality?

My guess is the reality is he would attempt to become a dictator (and not just for a day). The question will then be when he gives an order that is clearly unlawful/unconstitutional will anyone step up and refuse to obey. If he starts ordering the execution of refuseniks, things could escalate quickly.

[Kraken]

Isn't Trump going to be a dictator for a day?

Is th8s even a remotely realistic possibility?
Like what would have to happen for something like this to take place?
Same question in regards to a 3rd term.
Or becoming a "king"
How much of this is exaggeration, venting, etc vs reality?

My guess is the reality is he would attempt to become a dictator (and not just for a day). The question will then be when he gives an order that is clearly unlawful/unconstitutional will anyone step up and refuse to obey. If he starts ordering the execution of refuseniks, things could escalate quickly.

Our system survived the first trump administration because they were disorganized and had resistors within. This time he's zeroed in on christofascism. They have an agenda, they know how to purge opponents, they have the SCOTUS on their side, and almost surely the Senate as well. Democracy will not survive trump II.

[LordMortis]

It's the Baltic states

Which were part the USSR, which Putin thinks is Russian, even as they are part of NATO. Though, AFAIK, they don't have the economic and security supply chain that Ukraine does.

Our system survived the first trump administration because they were disorganized and had resistors within. This time he's zeroed in on christofascism. They have an agenda, they know how to purge opponents, they have the SCOTUS on their side, and almost surely the Senate as well. Democracy will not survive trump II.

I still think there are OK odds to survive. I don't think I like the price. The blood of patriots we have to lament and fear about isn't from the christofascists.

[YellowKing]

I think democracy will survive, but it will be so heavily weighted towards the christo-fascists that righting the ship might take decades. It would take a lot to single-handedly destroy 250 years of government, but very little to stack a deck which is already heavily stacked.

[Unagi]

Isn't Trump going to be a dictator for a day?

Is th8s even a remotely realistic possibility?
Like what would have to happen for something like this to take place?
Same question in regards to a 3rd term.
Or becoming a "king"
How much of this is exaggeration, venting, etc vs reality?

What you really seriously should be asking yourself is more this: Since when has a presidential candidate even remotely hinted at that as being acceptable? That's really all you and anyone else needs to consider. IMO.

[Alefroth]

Yep. Just the fact that we have to say 'who knows'? to those questions is seriously troubling.

[Punisher]

Isn't Trump going to be a dictator for a day?

Is th8s even a remotely realistic possibility?
Like what would have to happen for something like this to take place?
Same question in regards to a 3rd term.
Or becoming a "king"
How much of this is exaggeration, venting, etc vs reality?

What you really seriously should be asking yourself is more this: Since when has a presidential candidate even remotely hinted at that as being acceptable? That's really all you and anyone else needs to consider. IMO.

Oh I know it's unacceptable but realistically thete is nothing we can do to get his followers to understand that.
I'm just curious about a worse case scenario whete he gets elected.
Is that 4 more years of his nonsense or is it possibly permanent?

[LordMortis]

Oh I know it's unacceptable but realistically thete is nothing we can do to get his followers to understand that.
I'm just curious about a worse case scenario whete he gets elected.
Is that 4 more years of his nonsense or is it possibly permanent?

I don't see him staying as president more than 4 years after the fact. I do see him installing a regime of GOP permanence through legalizing voter suppression, advancing gerrymandering that favors the GOP in the House, and where he controls the GOP at the national level through the RNC while insisting a loyal political structure act on his will. I do see violence going up up up related to advancements in US fascism with clemency for violent GOP watchdogs concurrent with victimizing their detractors while looking the other way for legal entanglements. I see poverty going up as grifters line their pockets, feeding at the trough. This happens at least until TFG dies. Has it even receded while he's not been president? After that, who knows? Could a worse case scenario be worse than that? I suppose so. Our xenophobia and desire to institutionalize psuedochristian fascism is getting pretty extreme and that is dangerous enough to make wars happen on the one hand to turn a blind eye to war on the other. I don't see it, but I also wouldn't be shocked if it happened. If you asked me in 2012 if the GOP candidate in 2024 publicly claimed he wanted to be dictator for a day after basking in the idea of a violent overthrow of government in 2020, and resisting the peaceful transition of power, I wouldn't have been able to put a roadmap to get there in a decade. Yet here we are.

[waitingtoconnect]

Isn't Trump going to be a dictator for a day?

Is th8s even a remotely realistic possibility?
Like what would have to happen for something like this to take place?
Same question in regards to a 3rd term.
Or becoming a "king"
How much of this is exaggeration, venting, etc vs reality?

My guess is the reality is he would attempt to become a dictator (and not just for a day). The question will then be when he gives an order that is clearly unlawful/unconstitutional will anyone step up and refuse to obey. If he starts ordering the execution of refuseniks, things could escalate quickly.

I think it comes down to who is loyal to the country versus who is loyal to party and grift.

We’ve seen how the best case scenario for the US ended in the UK with the current conservatives or in Australia with their “Liberal Party” (who are actually conservatives. Incompetent leadership that nearly destroyed things especially in the UK with Brexit.

In both countries the centrist opposition collapsed into infighting and the false conservatives like the Trunp worshipping Boris Johnson took over. The result was grift and scandal on a shocking scale. The UK is now in recession and at risk of parts of it declaring independence - something unthinkable ten years ago.

These factions are totally loyal to Trump and his ideas. After 2020 the Uk government has enacted many of the same laws the republicans want to implement here to stifle voter rights making photo id mandatory.

If you want to see what republicans will be like with trump in the White House - look at the UK right now - that’s the best case.

Worst case is Russia.

[Blackhawk]

Trump won't become a permanent dictator or king.

Trump (and the GOP) will simply institute measures that guarantee that they'll be able to take and keep the offices that they want. We'll continue to have elections - just like Russia does. They'll let Trump pardon himself (or just end all of the investigations), and he'll wander off, snog a few pornstars, and die in a few years. Meanwhile, we'll have a permanent string of hard-right Presidents and Congresses 'elected' by a minority, with all of the counters to them doing so neatly eliminated. Maybe they'll remove term limits, maybe they won't. It honestly won't matter, as whoever is sitting in the big chair will simply be an appendage of the same GOP.

Hell, it may not even be the President who ends up with the power. It could be whoever is sitting in Mitch's chair.

[LordMortis]

Hell, it may not even be the President who ends up with the power. It could be whoever is sitting in Mitch's chair.

Like, say, the chair of the RNC?

[El Guapo]

Trump won't become a permanent dictator or king.

Trump (and the GOP) will simply institute measures that guarantee that they'll be able to take and keep the offices that they want. We'll continue to have elections - just like Russia does. They'll let Trump pardon himself (or just end all of the investigations), and he'll wander off, snog a few pornstars, and die in a few years. Meanwhile, we'll have a permanent string of hard-right Presidents and Congresses 'elected' by a minority, with all of the counters to them doing so neatly eliminated. Maybe they'll remove term limits, maybe they won't. It honestly won't matter, as whoever is sitting in the big chair will simply be an appendage of the same GOP.

Hell, it may not even be the President who ends up with the power. It could be whoever is sitting in Mitch's chair.

Yup. I think people tend to think of authoritarianism as a binary thing like either you have democracy or you have dictator for life. But really it's a spectrum. And almost every authoritarian government has elections - the real question is how much they matter in terms of who is wielding actual power. The real danger is that the GOP tilts elections such that they still happen but that the GOP remains in charge regardless (or effectively make it that the Democrats have to win by 10%+ or something to get any power.

Basically they want to make the whole country like Wisconsin or North Carolina is now.

[Exodor]

Trump won't become a permanent dictator or king.

Trump (and the GOP) will simply institute measures that guarantee that they'll be able to take and keep the offices that they want. We'll continue to have elections - just like Russia does. They'll let Trump pardon himself (or just end all of the investigations), and he'll wander off, snog a few pornstars, and die in a few years. Meanwhile, we'll have a permanent string of hard-right Presidents and Congresses 'elected' by a minority, with all of the counters to them doing so neatly eliminated. Maybe they'll remove term limits, maybe they won't. It honestly won't matter, as whoever is sitting in the big chair will simply be an appendage of the same GOP.

Hell, it may not even be the President who ends up with the power. It could be whoever is sitting in Mitch's chair.

The Senate is so anti-democratic that Republicans have a pretty good chance of keeping the majority long-term - unless we can convince a bunch of surplus blue state voters to move to Wyoming, Montana and other low-population states that inexplicably get the same representation as population-dense states like California.

[El Guapo]

Trump won't become a permanent dictator or king.

Trump (and the GOP) will simply institute measures that guarantee that they'll be able to take and keep the offices that they want. We'll continue to have elections - just like Russia does. They'll let Trump pardon himself (or just end all of the investigations), and he'll wander off, snog a few pornstars, and die in a few years. Meanwhile, we'll have a permanent string of hard-right Presidents and Congresses 'elected' by a minority, with all of the counters to them doing so neatly eliminated. Maybe they'll remove term limits, maybe they won't. It honestly won't matter, as whoever is sitting in the big chair will simply be an appendage of the same GOP.

Hell, it may not even be the President who ends up with the power. It could be whoever is sitting in Mitch's chair.

The Senate is so anti-democratic that Republicans have a pretty good chance of keeping the majority long-term - unless we can convince a bunch of surplus blue state voters to move to Wyoming, Montana and other low-population states that inexplicably get the same representation as population-dense states like California.

Yeah, this is a huge part of the long-term problem. Especially since judges have to be confirmed by the Senate, so as long as Republicans continue to draw disproportionately from rural states and as long as they take a McConnell-esque approach to judges, then between the Senate and the courts Republicans can still exercise a significant amount of control over policy even at times when they do poorly in elections. And on top of that the undemocratic Senate structure is hard-wired into the Constitution - it says that equal representation in the Senate can't be changed without the consent of the states impacted by a change.

[waitingtoconnect]

Trump won't become a permanent dictator or king.

Trump (and the GOP) will simply institute measures that guarantee that they'll be able to take and keep the offices that they want. We'll continue to have elections - just like Russia does. They'll let Trump pardon himself (or just end all of the investigations), and he'll wander off, snog a few pornstars, and die in a few years. Meanwhile, we'll have a permanent string of hard-right Presidents and Congresses 'elected' by a minority, with all of the counters to them doing so neatly eliminated. Maybe they'll remove term limits, maybe they won't. It honestly won't matter, as whoever is sitting in the big chair will simply be an appendage of the same GOP.

Hell, it may not even be the President who ends up with the power. It could be whoever is sitting in Mitch's chair.

The Senate is so anti-democratic that Republicans have a pretty good chance of keeping the majority long-term - unless we can convince a bunch of surplus blue state voters to move to Wyoming, Montana and other low-population states that inexplicably get the same representation as population-dense states like California.

It’s undemocratic by design. And because small states like Delaware sulked until they got what they wanted by threatening to join a foreign country.

In general the founders viewed the Senate to be an American version of House of Lords. John Dickinson said the Senate should "consist of the most distinguished characters, distinguished for their rank in life and their weight of property, and bearing as strong a likeness to the British House of Lords as possible."

So the idea is that it would be populated with rich property owners who could restrain the views of the masses from doing anything stupid. And up until 1913 it was by appointment by states not democratic.

It’s also not immune to populism or harmful characters; The most infamous Senate drama of the early 1950s was Wisconsin Senator Joseph McCarthy's investigations of alleged communists. After years of unchallenged power, McCarthy fell as a result of producing little evidence for his claims and the claims became more elaborate, even questioning the leadership of the United States Army. McCarthy was censured by the Senate in 1954.

In many ways the founders did align with men like McConnell today like it or not. Although they’d be horrified by Maga and how much power a president has taken from congress (with their consent) since the 1960s gulf of Tonkin. They’d also be upset by senators (and congress) doing what trump tells them and not acting as an independent body.

The founders built a system where four branches of government had to work together for democracy to fall. Trump is close to pulling it off with men like McConnell.

[Max Peck]

There are reports that Russia has successfully integrated 2 additional submarines into the Black Sea fleet.

Ukraine says it has hit two landing ships, a communications centre and other infrastructure used by Russia's Black Sea fleet off annexed Crimea.

An announcement by the Ukrainian general staff said the Yamal and Azov ships had been destroyed.

[Isgrimnur]

Ukrainian drone attacks target oil refinery and factory deep inside Russia

Ukraine has launched a series of drone strikes against targets in Russia more than 800 miles from the border, in some of its deepest attacks into Russia’s industrial heartland since the beginning of the war.

The Ukrainian drones targeted one of Russia’s largest oil refineries and a factory that produces Iranian-designed Shahed drones that have been used on the frontlines.
...
In Yelabuga, two drones appeared to target a facility established for the assembly of Shahed drones. Russia had recruited local students to help assemble the drones, according to independent Russian media reports.

Tatarstan’s health ministry said 13 students had been injured in the attack.

Video posted online showed a fixed-wing aircraft diving toward the factory grounds in Yelabuga and setting off a large explosion as it slammed into one of the buildings. Onlookers, including police officers, could be seen diving to the ground as debris was thrown in the air.

Journalists and online researchers have confirmed that the strikes appeared to have hit dormitories that previously housed the students at the factory site.

[Grifman]

More details - Cessna drones:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 32aade1dc0

[El Guapo]

Ukraine aid bill appears to be (finally) passing in the House. Also (I believe) includes aid to Israel, Taiwan, and I think a couple other allies as well. I think this could all still blow up (so to speak), but looks promising right now.

[Alefroth]

Sounds like Dems helped get it out of committee. Gallagher, who was due to leave the House today, is postponing that so he can vote.

[Unagi]

MTG's keepers must be furious.

[waitingtoconnect]

Must some big upset in the Kremlin then.

[Unagi]

[waitingtoconnect]

Well there is also the Karen’s association of America of which she is the Karen in Chief.

[waitingtoconnect]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mtg-literall ... 32339.html

Ah those sweet vodka scented karen tears.

[Daehawk]

[Grifman]

[waitingtoconnect]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -york-post



The score in Congress is now ‘Jewish space lasers lady 0, common sense 1

[Grifman]

New aid package for Ukraine:

[Alefroth]

We finally agreed to send long-range ATACMS. Can't wait to see them more widely used.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-qui ... 024-04-24/

[Daehawk]

Guns are useless without their ammo.

[Alefroth]

Deep thoughts.

How is that relevant here though?

[El Guapo]

Deep thoughts.

How is that relevant here though?

I assume because Ukraine has been having significant ammunition shortages, and a big part of this package is to send ammunition to Ukraine.

[Unagi]

Deep thoughts.

How is that relevant here though?

I assume because Ukraine has been having significant ammunition shortages, and a big part of this package is to send ammunition to Ukraine.

Sure, but it sounded a lot more like Daehawk was saying he thought the package was only for guns, and it would be useless without ammo.

[Alefroth]

Deep thoughts.

How is that relevant here though?

I assume because Ukraine has been having significant ammunition shortages, and a big part of this package is to send ammunition to Ukraine.

Sure, but it sounded a lot more like Daehawk was saying he thought the package was only for guns, and it would be useless without ammo.

That was my take, but I've been known to misread Daehawk.

[El Guapo]

Deep thoughts.

How is that relevant here though?

I assume because Ukraine has been having significant ammunition shortages, and a big part of this package is to send ammunition to Ukraine.

Sure, but it sounded a lot more like Daehawk was saying he thought the package was only for guns, and it would be useless without ammo.

That was my take, but I've been known to misread Daehawk.

The list of stuff two posts above his post has a list of stuff, the first four of which are ammunition. So like...pretty sure he doesn't think that they're sending guns without ammo. Also...I don't think he's an idiot?

[Kraken]

Well it turns out we were already slipping Ukraine some long-range ATACMS, which they used to good effect the moment the new aid package was approved. There will be more where those came from. But they are forbidden from using their capability to strike within Russia.

We can't give Ukraine what it needs to win but have to give them enough to not lose (unless the pro-Putin candidate wins in November, but that's going to be disastrous on every level). It's in US interests to keep bleeding Russia for as long as possible for what amounts to penny ante stakes and no threat to American lives. Those billions are well-spent, especially considering that most of them are going to US arms makers.