Ukraine

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Holman
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Holman »

stessier wrote: Sat May 14, 2022 6:48 pm I need context on why that is impressive.
I've watched a ton of WW2 combat footage, and this is remarkable in the same way: individual soldiers keeping their heads down while carrying on the fight at risk to themselves. This war isn't just about drones and missiles.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Kraken »

It looks to me like they neutralized an offscreen threat to our right. Things got a lot quieter after that hand grenade near the end.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

That was my assessment. One of them had a pretty good idea where fire was coming from. They either eliminated or perhaps forced the enemy to displace.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Kraken »

This struck me as an informative perspective.

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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

Seems if we got rid of Russia all problems would be solved.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by dbt1949 »

What about China then?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by dbt1949 »

and all the good movies that Netflix does not carry.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

dbt1949 wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 12:19 am and all the good movies that Netflix does not carry.
I’m having trouble following you here.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Unagi wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 8:07 am
dbt1949 wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 12:19 am and all the good movies that Netflix does not carry.
I’m having trouble following you here.
It's an example of a problem that wouldn't be solved by getting rid of Russia. He's just having a little fun with Daehawk's hyperbole.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

Max Peck wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 8:50 am
Unagi wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 8:07 am
dbt1949 wrote: Sun May 15, 2022 12:19 am and all the good movies that Netflix does not carry.
I’m having trouble following you here.
It's an example of a problem that wouldn't be solved by getting rid of Russia. He's just having a little fun with Daehawk's hyperbole.
Ok. Lol. That totally went over my head.
Thank you.

I don’t know why I failed to read it like that.
That’s entirely my sense of humor.

Maybe if the ‘and’ was an ‘or’ I’d have read it as a list of problems more. I was trying to figure out what China had to do with Netflix’s movie library. And believe me, my brain allowed for their to be a connection.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by raydude »

Hopefully this is a little more impressive in the "Ukraine efforts to stop Russian offensive" department:

Ukraine stops attempted Russian river assault over Siverskyi Donets


Looks like this has been corroborated from several twitter feeds I've been following. And apparently even pro-Russian military bloggers are a bit peeved at the implications of the failed crossing:

The Ukrainian destruction of significant elements of a Russian motorized rifle brigade that tried to cross a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River on May 11 has shocked prominent Russian milbloggers. Those bloggers have begun commenting on the incompetence of the Russian military to their hundreds of thousands of followers.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Apparently the orcs attempted 3 crossings (so far). Initially I had seen reports that 2 failed and the 3rd succeeded, but according to the BBC it looks like all 3 ended in failure.

Bloody river battle was third in three days - Ukraine official
A failed river crossing where a Russian battalion lost almost all its armoured vehicles was the third such attack in three days, a Ukrainian army official has told the BBC.

Serhiy Hayday, head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration, said Russia was trying hard to cross the Siversky Donets in order to encircle a strategic east Ukrainian city.

But he claimed that in days of intense battles, local forces had destroyed speed boats and helicopters and "ruined Russian boat bridges three times".

Images from the scene show dozens of burnt-out armoured vehicles on the banks of the river.

Ukrainian information service, InformNapalm, said that Russia began its crossing attempt on 8 May.

But as soon as they crossed, Ukrainian forces destroyed the pontoon bridge in the water, and Russian troops "fell into the trap", it said.

The UK ministry of defence claimed on Friday that the incident - which it said was a "highly risky" attempt to cross the water - revealed the pressure Russian commanders were under to make progress.
Mick Ryan tweeted a thread that provides background on the complexity of attempting an opposed river crossing and touches on the significance of the attempt.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1525 ... 53792.html
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Re: Ukraine

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Re: Ukraine

Post by LordMortis »

Did I hear right? (1:58) The Chinese are selling Ukraine drones and selling Russia the technology to track the drones? Crazy.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

I think it's more like China gave Russia's military the ability to crack their civilian-use drone products with some 'admin level' application, that lets Russia also track the drone, just like the user can... And I think the drones are simply in the hands of Ukrainians that bought them well before the war, and they just happen to be Chinese (cheaper). They would like the US civilian-drone models since we haven't provided Russia with the backdoor to their interface.

So, it's not quite like "China is selling drones to Ukraine"...
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Sweden has now announced that they will join Finland in seeking to join NATO. Norway, Denmark and Iceland have pledged to support both countries if they are attacked before gaining membership.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Daehawk »

Well at least part of the world isn't crazy.
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Re: Ukraine

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Re: Ukraine

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Re: Ukraine

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I now worry about his future.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Turkey objects as Sweden, Finland seek NATO membership
Turkey´s president on Monday complicated Sweden and Finland´s historic bid to join NATO, saying he cannot allow them to become members of the alliance because of their perceived inaction against exiled Kurdish militants.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan doubled down on comments last week indicating that the two Nordic countries´ path to NATO would be anything but smooth. All 30 current NATO countries must agree to open the door to new members.

Erdogan spoke to reporters just hours after Sweden joined Finland in announcing it would seek NATO membership in the wake of Russian’s invasion of Ukraine, ending more than 200 years of military nonalignment. He accused the two countries of refusing to extradite “terrorists” wanted by his country.

“Neither country has an open, clear stance against terrorist organizations,” Erdogan said, in an apparent reference to Kurdish militant groups such as the banned Kurdistan Workers´ Party, or PKK.

Swedish officials said they would dispatch a team of diplomats to Ankara to discuss the matter, but Erdogan suggested they were wasting their time.

“Are they coming to try and convince us? Sorry don´t wear yourselves out,” Erdogan said. “During this process, we cannot say ‘yes’ to those who impose sanctions on Turkey, on joining NATO, which is a security organization.”
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Newcastle »

@Malchior

That is amazing video of the Russian Tv analyst & TV host. Really amazing what he said especially around the 345 mark "we have to acknowledge as a reality the whole world is turned against us & THAT is what we have to get out of"; also "we should not have saber rattled Finland". The woman host pushed back for sure. But I was cringing for him, thinking GRU/KGB goons were about to knock him down.

It's interesting to see Turkey's position. I hope that get's resolved, but I hope that Er Dogan doesn't drag his feet. I get his opposition; but yikes. I hope it get swept under the rug, but I bet he raises a stink for a while until something satisfactory is stated. however, I think by the time Finland gets admitted this war will be over & Ukraine victorious.

What get's me hopeful about this situation is: Putin is done. Let's see what happens with his regime. But I think as an actor on the world stage, Russian's power economically/politically/ morally/ military has been crushed. It looks like their military is getting fought tooth and nail, what happens when momentum swings into Ukraine's favor? I think Russia has been incredibly weakened with the power they can project upon the world. That's a great thing! Was reading that over 500 Russian spies been ejected from European nations. That's a good thing, that's less mischief they can create.

I do think now, nuclear war if firmly off the table.

The other thing I am hopeful for, is China is seeing how Russia is getting ass smacked. They are also seeing how hard Europe is weaning itself off Russian goods. The chinese have to be thinking that how they act going forward will be scrutinized. Will Europe's awakening cause them to rethink their trading partnership w/ China. After all they tried to do business w/ an Authoritarian regime, but instead they were blackmailed energy wise. "What would prevent China from blackmailing us?" has got to be dominant in their [ European/World] mind. I think the end result is we are going to see China's ambition reigned in a bit. Chinese love the rich European/US markets, what happens if we refuse their goods for their treatment of Uighurs & other human right abuses? China has threated the US before w/ the rare earth minerals. So they have made the threat, would they carry it out? Those lines of thinking I think are going to be interesting debate points going forward.

Was also reading that India paused a bid for Russian helicopters today. Bet India & West will announce some arms package in the future. Bet it will be British.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Kraken »

Newcastle wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 10:47 pm @Malchior

That is amazing video of the Russian Tv analyst & TV host. Really amazing what he said especially around the 345 mark "we have to acknowledge as a reality the whole world is turned against us & THAT is what we have to get out of"; also "we should not have saber rattled Finland". The woman host pushed back for sure. But I was cringing for him, thinking GRU/KGB goons were about to knock him down.

It's interesting to see Turkey's position. I hope that get's resolved, but I hope that Er Dogan doesn't drag his feet. I get his opposition; but yikes. I hope it get swept under the rug, but I bet he raises a stink for a while until something satisfactory is stated. however, I think by the time Finland gets admitted this war will be over & Ukraine victorious.

What get's me hopeful about this situation is: Putin is done. Let's see what happens with his regime. But I think as an actor on the world stage, Russian's power economically/politically/ morally/ military has been crushed. It looks like their military is getting fought tooth and nail, what happens when momentum swings into Ukraine's favor? I think Russia has been incredibly weakened with the power they can project upon the world. That's a great thing! Was reading that over 500 Russian spies been ejected from European nations. That's a good thing, that's less mischief they can create.

I do think now, nuclear war if firmly off the table.

The other thing I am hopeful for, is China is seeing how Russia is getting ass smacked. They are also seeing how hard Europe is weaning itself off Russian goods. The chinese have to be thinking that how they act going forward will be scrutinized. Will Europe's awakening cause them to rethink their trading partnership w/ China. After all they tried to do business w/ an Authoritarian regime, but instead they were blackmailed energy wise. "What would prevent China from blackmailing us?" has got to be dominant in their [ European/World] mind. I think the end result is we are going to see China's ambition reigned in a bit. Chinese love the rich European/US markets, what happens if we refuse their goods for their treatment of Uighurs & other human right abuses? China has threated the US before w/ the rare earth minerals. So they have made the threat, would they carry it out? Those lines of thinking I think are going to be interesting debate points going forward.

Was also reading that India paused a bid for Russian helicopters today. Bet India & West will announce some arms package in the future. Bet it will be British.
Maybe the fact that that broadcast got through is a sign that Putin's support within his own regime is slipping. Presumably Russian state media are being constantly censored in real time. That wouldn't have gone on for four minutes unless someone was looking the other way and whistling.

I also read that a Russian oligarch was recorded saying that Putin is very ill with blood cancer, but that could just be deliberate disinformation.

It would still be a mistake to underestimate Putin, but his pedestal is certainly shorter.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

Kraken wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 11:07 pmMaybe the fact that that broadcast got through is a sign that Putin's support within his own regime is slipping. Presumably Russian state media are being constantly censored in real time. That wouldn't have gone on for four minutes unless someone was looking the other way and whistling.
I wouldn't get my hopes up. Russian media has quite a bit of diversity. Most of it is propaganda but there are a lot of voices in Russia. And until the last few years it was more authoritarian pretending to support pluralism. This is changing to a more totalitarian model but it more of an ebb and flow. The hard liners get more airtime now and voices such as his get less.

However, we also can't dismiss that this is a softening of rhetoric to prepare for eventual defeat. He was given a platform for some reason. A lot of the hardline RU military bloggers have recently turned hard against the MOD after the military disaster referenced earlier in the thread with more detail below. The utterly incompetent Orcs tried over and over to cross the Donets river and might have lost 1 or 2 BTG in a single day. That is~1% of the total *ORIGINAL* invasion force. The rumor is that the M777s we just delivered were instrumental in achieving this result.


I also read that a Russian oligarch was recorded saying that Putin is very ill with blood cancer, but that could just be deliberate disinformation.

It would still be a mistake to underestimate Putin, but his pedestal is certainly shorter.
I would think he is safe still. He wisely purged important enemies recently.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Newcastle »

re: Putin's blood cancer
I was wondering if that was deliberate misinformation or not [ West or Russian generated]. Recent photos show he is unwell, but carrying on a war will wear someone down. It will be interesting if there is any credence to that Oligarch conversation. All they have to do to dispute Putin's health is throw him into a judo competition, show he is agile and boom that's gone. I dont want to get my hopes up for that.

@Kraken
Thanks for putting that in a bit of perspective. I recognize the woman from previous clips, so I would think she is on a Russian prime time network. What I also found interesting from that conversation was all the other panelist were quiet; and the hostess she pushed back but it was more about the dying/professionalism; it seemed she didn't really push back on the "weakened" global strength bit.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Kurth »

The other panelists looked like deer caught in headlights to me. Every time the footage cut away to show one of them they had a wide-eyed look on their faces like, "Are we really allowed to say this?"
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Via Sweden's Minister for Foreign Affairs:

Just signed a historic indication letter to #NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg
from the Swedish Government 🇸🇪. Our NATO application is now formally signed.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

So what’s the plan with addressing Turkey’s veto?
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Negotiation, presumably. I haven't heard anything specific yet.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by El Guapo »

Max Peck wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 11:39 am Negotiation, presumably. I haven't heard anything specific yet.
There's an informal list of demands.

There are significant issues there to be sure, but I think Finland and Sweden are important enough to NATO that some mix of carrot and stick will eventually get Turkey on board.

That said, if I'm Finland and Sweden I want to be 100% in the alliance before 2025 because god knows what U.S. leadership will look like then.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 11:41 am
Max Peck wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 11:39 am Negotiation, presumably. I haven't heard anything specific yet.
There's an informal list of demands.

There are significant issues there to be sure, but I think Finland and Sweden are important enough to NATO that some mix of carrot and stick will eventually get Turkey on board.
Indeed. Erdogan is an autocratic thug. He is naturally transactional. He'll extract some concessions, he'll bank some credit with the Russians for fucking NATO shit up a little, but he knows bringing in them takes some pressure off Turkey as well.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

I had seen references to that Bloomberg article, but their paywall is more effective than most. :shifty:

However, just now I was able to find a non-paywalled copy here.
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Re: Ukraine

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malchior wrote: Mon May 16, 2022 7:42 pm
Wow.

That is either a man that is sick and tired of toeing the party line, or a man that is sick and tired of breathing. In either case, you could see the real fear/disbelief on some of the other panelists' faces. Amazing that the cameras kept on him and his mic didn't suffer a malfunction. Like, bullet-shooting-out-of-the-mic kind of malfunction.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Holman »

El Guapo wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 11:41 am
Max Peck wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 11:39 am Negotiation, presumably. I haven't heard anything specific yet.
There's an informal list of demands.

There are significant issues there to be sure, but I think Finland and Sweden are important enough to NATO that some mix of carrot and stick will eventually get Turkey on board.

That said, if I'm Finland and Sweden I want to be 100% in the alliance before 2025 because god knows what U.S. leadership will look like then.
This week's Pod Save The World discussed this. Given the heightened danger of the period between announcing intent to join and actually joining, it's unlikely that Finland or Sweden would have announced before the deal was already certain.

Erdogan is probably just preening for autocratic effect. He'll get something out of it, but he won't torpedo the expansion.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Unagi »

Good. My fear was a dragged out application.

Like Erdogan coming up with new demands as soon as this rounds demands are addressed.

I’m also a little irked Erdogan may get anything out of this.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by El Guapo »

Holman wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 4:52 pm
El Guapo wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 11:41 am
Max Peck wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 11:39 am Negotiation, presumably. I haven't heard anything specific yet.
There's an informal list of demands.

There are significant issues there to be sure, but I think Finland and Sweden are important enough to NATO that some mix of carrot and stick will eventually get Turkey on board.

That said, if I'm Finland and Sweden I want to be 100% in the alliance before 2025 because god knows what U.S. leadership will look like then.
This week's Pod Save The World discussed this. Given the heightened danger of the period between announcing intent to join and actually joining, it's unlikely that Finland or Sweden would have announced before the deal was already certain.

Erdogan is probably just preening for autocratic effect. He'll get something out of it, but he won't torpedo the expansion.
I saw an interview with the President of Finland on CNN where he said that he was surprised because he talked with Erdogan about their application a month ago and he didn't raise any issues about it. Suggests that it's mostly a mix of preening for nationalists and a desire to get concessions.
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Re: Ukraine

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Politicians are made to be bought.
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Re: Ukraine

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dbt1949 wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 5:24 pm Politicians are made to be bought.
"War is the continuation of politics by other means."
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Re: Ukraine

Post by Max Peck »

Another day, another fire in Russia.

Fire Erupts at Russia Aviation Institute Near Moscow as Ukraine War Rages
A fire broke out at a renowned aviation institute in the Moscow region in the latest Russian blaze that has been shared on social media.

Footage shows smoke billowing into the air above trees by the Central Aerohydrodynamic Institute (TsAGI) in Zhukovsky which is located around 25 miles southeast of central Moscow.

The Moscow regional branch of the Russian emergencies ministry said that the fire broke out at a transformer station on the site at around 9 a.m. local time Saturday according to RIA Novosti and was put out within an hour.
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Re: Ukraine

Post by malchior »

The UA army is claiming they destroyed another BTG trying to cross the Donets again. Damn shame.

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