Ukraine

[LordMortis]

A major Auto OEM is asking for supply chain assurance that deliveries can be made in the event that no supplies can come from Russia or the Ukraine.

[Grifman]

And at sea…

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Performance art. The West has nothing to fear from Russian amphibious ships in the Baltic or Atlantic. It's not like they are going to invade Denmark or Spain with a handful of ships.

[Jaymann]

U.S. soldiers are deploying to Europe. We're not going to engage in another mother humping proxy war are we???

[stessier]

It's not a proxy war when the US is actually fighting Russia.

[malchior]

There won't be any US soldiers fighting Russians. If that happens, we better start stocking up on iodine.

[malchior]

Performance art. The West has nothing to fear from Russian amphibious ships in the Baltic or Atlantic. It's not like they are going to invade Denmark or Spain with a handful of ships.

FWIW they were being shadowed for various reasons including ascertaining what might be on board. It was possible they could have orders to reposition to the black sea for potential operations against Ukraine.

[A nonny mouse]

Looks like IRL S.T.A.L.K.E.R. is a possibility.

This is some troubling stuff.

[malchior]

Maybe this is the Biden administration's reaction to bad press from Afghanistan? Perhaps but this isn't great. They are getting a lot of flack for lack of transparency on Ukraine issues and this isn't going to help.

[malchior]

Just to gently correct the tweet - this is of 1 of 3 (known) Putin yachts.

[LawBeefaroni]

Getting hot as hell. Americans advised to leave Ukraine within 48 hours.

Refreshing to see a competent press conference for the first time in what, 5 or 6 years? The situation it comes in is not great though.


You just know he wants to invade during the Superbowl.

[Octavious]

Well according to my co-worker none of this would be happening if Trump was in office. Nobody was tougher on Russia than Trump!

[El Guapo]

Putin wouldn't want to invade during the Olympics, would he? Seems like that would compound the likely diplomatic reaction.

[Isgrimnur]

Putin wouldn't want to invade during the Olympics, would he? Seems like that would compound the likely diplomatic reaction.

Well, not since so many diplomats boycotted. That would have thrown some kinks into a Munich II.

[malchior]

Putin wouldn't want to invade during the Olympics, would he? Seems like that would compound the likely diplomatic reaction.

From what I'm reading there are some practicalities and political elements back home that are forcing his hand time table wise. The certainty in assessments is being driven by troop levels but also the weather. The ground has to freeze for the heavy equipment. That is pretty much there now. It'll peak at some point and the ground will begin to thaw. That is driving urgency.

Another issue is that readiness for action decreases the longer the troops at the front are ready for battle. They've built up enough that it is almost certain that he can take Eastern Ukraine. Holding it is going to be painful. They may have sustained insurgency - especially if NATO supports it with material.

On top, Russia has conscription still. This poses some challenges. 1-year conscripts traditionally turn over in April. Russians have sensitivity to conscription and mistreatment of conscripts. Some have argued this factor is driving his decision to move faster to give them the time to turnover conscripts in March.

[malchior]

What a relief this very true video must be to Ukrainian citizens

[Unagi]

I’ll assume sarcasm.

But why would they bother to make an announcement that they were leaving (with video) , only to actually stick around and launch the invasion they have always insisted was never going to happen.

I’m guessing they aren’t invading and this is all done to make the US seem like the aggressive one, then next year they can do this again and perhaps that time invade, etc.

The plan being to get the US to sound like the boy who cried wolf.

[Unagi]

Also another question I have about all this:

Does the Ukraine want our help or not. I never heard a single report during this that the Ukraine wished they had US/UN troops waiting to confront this ‘inevitable’ invasion.

I realize there is a little bit of a hostage situation at play, but they seemed pretty willing to downplay this whole thing, from the reporting I heard.

[malchior]

I’ll assume sarcasm.

But why would they bother to make an announcement that they were leaving (with video) , only to actually stick around and launch the invasion they have always insisted was never going to happen.

The Russians are inherently untrustworthy. Whatever they do they might very well premise on something they cook up on the spot or in retrospect. The risk won't be over until it has actually de-escalated drastically.

I’m guessing they aren’t invading and this is all done to make the US seem like the aggressive one, then next year they can do this again and perhaps that time invade, etc.

It's pretty clear that Putin has been pushing buttons and looking for supposed advantages the whole time. Most of those probably only exist in his mind. Some people argue he met his soft goals which are driven by power politics back home. Some say he got enough by appearing big and important (e.g., he got a bunch of foreign leaders to come and be humiliated at his long table).

The political situation back home has been worsening for Putin. It is too murky to call a crisis but there are reports that hardliners are urging action. Some Kremlinologists point at Generals who started their careers at the tail of the cold war like Putin did as the core faction there. Others especially on the business/oligarchic side are urging caution for obvious reasons. Evidence for hardliner support is fairly evident. For instance, just yesterday the Duma approved a plan to recognize independence of parts of Ukraine that the Russians invaded *last time*. That is a shot at undermining implementation of the so-called Minsk deal. The hardliners appear to be trying to escalate things by killing the Minsk deal and renegotiating it at gunpoint. That could have been in response to the withdrawal as anything else.

The plan being to get the US to sound like the boy who cried wolf.

It's an option. Still no one really cares what the Russians say. Most care about what they actually do. In any case, the Russians have an autocrat who has many things to keep an eye on and it makes the situation unpredictable. This was why I was being a little sarcastic there. Announced withdrawals from entities that are known propagandists are meaningless to the folks in the firing line until that immediate danger is in the past.

Edit 2: FWIW - the emerging picture here is that Putin might have fucked up. If he did it'll be a misread/misplay of his hand. He thought with energy prices out of control and the US politically in chaos that he could pull a fast heist. Or possibly put enough pressure on Zelensky to put Ukraine safely back in his pocket as a consolation prize. This is the situation where I think in due time it'll be a clear win for Biden and the administration. Though to be balanced, NATO is the premise that American 'empire' was built on. If we or NATO fell apart it would have signaled drastic decline. And to someone like Putin it was looking very shaky only a couple of years ago with Trump smashing glass. Heck even a month ago the Germans were looked pretty shaky in the face of mounting energy concerns. So as this recedes or possibly even if it doesn't end peacefully Biden will get high marks for herding the NATO cats and at least re-forging the broken sword.

Edit: Non-sequitur but I love the Pitchbot.

[Max Peck]

Also another question I have about all this:

Does the Ukraine want our help or not. I never heard a single report during this that the Ukraine wished they had US/UN troops waiting to confront this ‘inevitable’ invasion.

I realize there is a little bit of a hostage situation at play, but they seemed pretty willing to downplay this whole thing, from the reporting I heard.

The public stance of the Ukrainian government is that they are skeptical of an immediate attack, although that may be intended to keep the civilian population from panicking. While they haven't requested foreign troops that they know would never come, they have been soliciting foreign arms shipments.

Canada to send Ukraine lethal military equipment worth $7.8M

"In light of the seriousness of the situation, and following conversations with our Ukrainian partners, I've approved the provision of $7.8 million worth of lethal equipment and ammunition," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told a Monday news conference.

"The intent of this support from Canada and other partners is to deter further Russian aggression."

The government also says it will make a new $500-million loan available to Ukraine after previously announcing a separate $120-million loan in January.

It is unclear when the weapons will be shipped.

Although the Liberal government has been quick to say it has never ruled out sending lethal aid the Ukrainians have requested for months, the decision represents a policy shift.

Up until this point in the crisis, Canada has peferred to send non-lethal equipment, including flak vests, mine detectors and medical kits.

Some of Canada's closest NATO allies, including the United States and the United Kingdom, have already shipped hundreds of tonnes of arms, including anti-tank weapons.

Ukrainian officials remained publicly skeptical on Monday that an attack was imminent.

The head of the country's National Security and Defence Council, Okeksiy Danilov, said the government does not expect to see an attack this week.
In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the phone in his office in Kyiv on Jan. 11, 2022. Trudeau announced Monday, Feb. 14, that the Canadian government would send Ukraine lethal equipment and ammunition, as well as more money. (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office/The Associated Press)

"We are fully aware of what is happening today on the territory of our country, we are aware of the risks, but the situation is absolutely under control," Danilov was quoted as saying by local television.

Even still, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the country could soon face "a great war" and signed a decree declaring Feb. 16, 2022, the "Day of Unity of Ukrainians," according to the country's Interfax news agency.

But why would they bother to make an announcement that they were leaving (with video) , only to actually stick around and launch the invasion they have always insisted was never going to happen.

Maskirovka?

[Isgrimnur]

Russia claims it has no immediate plans to attack Ukraine: 'Wars in Europe rarely start on a Wednesday'

[malchior]

[LordMortis]

Does the Ukraine want our help or not.

I wonder this as well. There is all of the talk about Ukraine not being NATO but no talk about how the USSR has been gone since the 80s but Ukraine is not part of NATO in all that time. My knowledge of geopolitics is non existent in all of this. Russia eyeing Ukraine has been a known quantity at least since the Obama administration and yet nothing had been done in all this time. Why?

[Isgrimnur]

al Jazeera

In 2008, NATO leaders promised Ukraine it would one day be given the opportunity to join the alliance. But despite deepening cooperation in the years since, there is thought to be little chance of that happening any time soon.

Western powers are yet to be convinced Kyiv has done enough work to eradicate corruption and meet the other political, economic and military criteria required to enter the alliance, as set out in its 1995 Study on Enlargement.

NATO’s members may also be wary of Ukraine joining their ranks while tensions with Moscow remain high, as such a move could draw them into a direct conflict with Russia in the event it launches an attack, because of the collective defence principle.

On Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the issue was “not on the agenda” following talks with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, despite Ukraine’s president restating his country’s membership ambition.

All 30 NATO allies must unanimously approve a new country becoming part of the alliance.

[El Guapo]

Does the Ukraine want our help or not.

I wonder this as well. There is all of the talk about Ukraine not being NATO but no talk about how the USSR has been gone since the 80s but Ukraine is not part of NATO in all that time. My knowledge of geopolitics is non existent in all of this. Russia eyeing Ukraine has been a known quantity at least since the Obama administration and yet nothing had been done in all this time. Why?

A couple things: (1) I don't think Russia thinks that it can get away with straight up annexing Ukraine. But it very much wants Ukraine to be essentially a vassal state dependent on Russia. And Russia had that for many years, at least until a peaceful revolution in Ukraine in 2014 toppled the pro-Russian autocracy and replaced it with a pro-western democracy. Russia wants to find a way to undo that as much as possible and return Ukraine to a vassal state;

(2) the main reason why no one's interested in Ukraine joining NATO right now is that that would then mandate all the NATO states to defend Ukraine militarily in the event of a conflict with Russia, and as the current situation shows lots of countries are willing to defend it diplomatically and financially, but no one is willing to do that militarily. Plus if you're the Ukranian government you'd probably like to join NATO if you can, but you'd be deeply worried about how Russia would respond.

[Unagi]

(2) the main reason why no one's interested in Ukraine joining NATO right now is that that would then mandate all the NATO states to defend Ukraine militarily in the event of a conflict with Russia....

But that's, like, the whole point, man.

[Chraolic]

Russia claims it has no immediate plans to attack Ukraine: 'Wars in Europe rarely start on a Wednesday'

Nazi troops marched into Czechoslovakia on a Wednesday, however. Probably just a coincidence, but it still seems like a really bad idea to bring up historical precedent.

[Pyperkub]

(2) the main reason why no one's interested in Ukraine joining NATO right now is that that would then mandate all the NATO states to defend Ukraine militarily in the event of a conflict with Russia....

But that's, like, the whole point, man.

The other piece is that I recall that a condition of Ukraine giving up their nukes after their independence was military protection from Russia. Not sure how that was arranged tho, but I do remember that they would have had the third most nukes on the planet at the time.

[Holman]

The other piece is that I recall that a condition of Ukraine giving up their nukes after their independence was military protection from Russia. Not sure how that was arranged tho, but I do remember that they would have had the third most nukes on the planet at the time.

There has been a lot of talk about that agreement lately. The upshot is that it was a non-binding statement of intentions.

Which is to say, we would be morally but not legally obligated to defend Ukraine.

[Unagi]

Well, luckily we just filed for Chapter 7 Moral Bankruptcy, so I think we are totally off the hook here.

[Isgrimnur]

The Hill

President Biden on Thursday said that he believes Russia will invade Ukraine in the next several days, noting that Russia has added more troops to the border.
...
The Kremlin earlier on Thursday accused the U.S. and NATO of making “unfounded accusations” after officials said Russia has made no effort to withdraw its forces from near the Ukrainian border.

The Kremlin has also ordered the expulsion of the U.S. Embassy’s second-ranking diplomat in Russia, Deputy Chief of Mission Bart Forman.

[Sudy]

This isn't a very politically insightful post, but I just wanted to say as someone who had a Ukrainian grandfather this still pisses me off very much. I don't really have any ties with that element of my heritage anymore (outside of celebrating Orthodox Christmas with pedaheh and kovbasa), but it still feels like an important part of me.

[Daehawk]

Wish other countries and former ones of the USSR would take the opportunity to rush Moscow while the bulk of the military is away...Im sure Georgia would like to burn the Kremlin.

[Isgrimnur]

NBC News

Biden's comments came after Kyiv said Russian-backed separatists were responsible for “a big provocation" after the shelling of a kindergarten in eastern Ukraine. The flare-up in the long-running conflict further stoked fears of a deadly new outbreak of war in Europe.
...
Kyiv said a kindergarten in the territory under its control in eastern Ukraine was shelled with heavy artillery weapons by Moscow-backed separatist forces early Thursday, while the separatists accused Ukraine’s army of firing on the territory they control.

The Ukrainian army said three people at the kindergarten were injured and power in the area was knocked out. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Twitter that the incident was "a big provocation.”
...
Meanwhile, the separatists in the self-proclaimed "Luhansk People’s Republic" accused Ukrainian soldiers of firing on their territory four times in the past 24 hours, Reuters reported. In a statement, the separatists said Ukrainian forces had used mortars, grenade launchers and a machine gun in four separate incidents, according to Reuters.

While the details of the incidents could not be independently confirmed by NBC News, the location of the shelled building is in Stanytsia Luhanska, which is in Ukrainian-controlled territory. Russian-backed separatists, meanwhile, provided no evidence that territory they controlled had been attacked.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was “seriously concerned” about reports of an escalation and countered that the West was making "unfounded accusations" about Moscow's claims of a troop withdrawal.

[Holman]

This isn't a very politically insightful post, but I just wanted to say as someone who had a Ukrainian grandfather this still pisses me off very much. I don't really have any ties with that element of my heritage anymore (outside of celebrating Orthodox Christmas with pedaheh and kovbasa), but it still feels like an important part of me.

My FIL's family were Ukrainian Jews. Half of the them fled the 1905 pogroms, and the other half didn't survive Hitler.

My kids think of themselves as having family roots there.

[Max Peck]

Ukraine: What do the latest satellite images tell us?

The latest satellite images provided by the US space technology company Maxar show that wide-scale Russian military activity persists close to Ukraine's borders, despite recent Russian claims of de-escalation and withdrawal.

Taken in mid-February, they illustrate that Ukraine remains surrounded on three sides - on its borders with both Russia and Belarus - by Russian military hardware and troop concentrations.

[malchior]

The word is that Biden just cancelled a trip back home and might be heading to he situation room. Apparently we had intelligence last week that the attack was ordered. And the Russian have been blowing up buildings in separatist areas and blaming Ukraine. It's probably on.

Some indirect evidence? Some videos such as the withdrawal one I posted above or videos from separatist rebels referred to activity on certain dates but had embedded metadata indicating it was prepared days in advance. Whoops.

[Exodor]

Biden to meet with Putin if no invasion

President Joe Biden has agreed "in principle" to French-brokered summit talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin as long as Russia does not further invade Ukraine, the White House said late Sunday.

The meeting, according to press secretary Jen Psaki, would occur after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meet on February 24.

Still, in a statement, Psaki appeared to downplay the prospects of a meeting actually materializing given what US officials have said the high likelihood is Putin could launch an invasion soon. And other US officials made clear no plans -- either on timing, format or location -- currently exist for the two leaders to meet.

[Dogstar]

So, if you missed Putin's speech, I would guess that the summit is off and the invasion is on.

Someone on Twitter said that it read like the grievance list of a former Soviet apparatchik. Highlights included:

1. It was madness that the former Soviet Republics became countries.
2. The legacy of the USSR and the Russian Empire has been squandered.
3. Ukraine is attacking the Russian Orthodox Church.
4. Ukraine is trying to develop nuclear weapons.
5. Sanctions won't impact Russia.
6. Everyone is trying to limit Russia in its development.

I'd like to offer some dark humor, but as someone with relatives in both countries, I just can't.

[malchior]

Putin is straight up nuts or acting like it jntentionally. Either way it's looking bad.

[Smoove_B]

I haven't seen much other than the suggestion that Putin is telegraphing that what's about to happen to Ukraine is to be expected for all that were in the former Soviet Union. It all sounds like things are about to go sideways in a big way.