Ukraine

[Unagi]

McDonald's Forces in Russia have gone offline... where is that?

https://nypost.com/2022/05/23/mcdonalds ... it-begins/

[Unagi]

English speaking band of Ukraine Legion take out Russian BTR. Cant figure out why these Russian assets are working alone.

Not just English speaking, that guy sounded down-right midwestern USA to my ear.

[Isgrimnur]

McDonald's Forces in Russia have gone offline... where is that?

Dunno, I stole it from reddit.

[Max Peck]

They're running around unsupported like that because they're not good at their job.

[Max Peck]

Not just English speaking, that guy sounded down-right midwestern USA to my ear.

Yeah, the first place I saw that video was on Twitter and they were specifically referred to as American volunteers.

[Max Peck]

Is Newsweek a credible source these days?

Exclusive: Putin Treated for Cancer in April, U.S. Intelligence Report Says

Vladimir Putin's health is a subject of intense conversation inside the Biden administration after the intelligence community produced its fourth comprehensive assessment at the end of May. The classified U.S. report says Putin seems to have re-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer, three U.S. intelligence leaders who have read the reports tell Newsweek.

The assessments also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin's life in March, the officials say.

The high-ranking officials, who represent three separate intelligence agencies, are concerned that Putin is increasingly paranoid about his hold on power, a status that makes for a rocky and unpredictable course in Ukraine. But it is one, they say, that also makes the prospects of nuclear war less likely.

"Putin's grip is strong but no longer absolute," says one of the senior intelligence officers with direct access to the reports. "The jockeying inside the Kremlin has never been more intense during his rule, everyone sensing that the end is near."

All three officials—one from the office of the Director of National Intelligence, one a retired Air Force senior officer, and one from the Defense Intelligence Agency—caution that the Russian leader's isolation makes it more difficult for U.S. intelligence to precisely assess Putin's status and health.

[El Guapo]

Newsweek is basically the NY Post at this point. There's some serious reporting mixed in with a laundering of far right talking points to the public.

[Max Peck]

I'm inclined to believe the reporting is true, at least insofar as there being an intelligence report that assessed that Putin is ill. I did a quick check on the writer (William Arkin) and didn't find any indication that he is a fabulist, and the article claims the story was confirmed by 3 different anonymous sources who had read the report. Normally I'd say who knows if the intelligence is accurate, but the fact is that US intelligence seems to have been pretty accurate leading into the invasion, so maybe they're right about this too.

[Kraken]

Agree that Newsweek is junk journalism now. As someone who subscribed alternately to both Time and Newsweek through the decades, seeing that name in the mud saddens me.

Also agree that while the report could be true, rumors of Putin's failing health have been circulating for months, if not years, and evidence is thin.

[Blackhawk]

He certainly acts like someone who is thinking about his legacy short term, and isn't too worried about the effects on others long term.

Which could work against the world. Someone who sees the end in sight may not be as worried having the world stay livable.

[Max Peck]

Swedish domestic politics appear to be further complicating their NATO aspirations. If I understand it correctly, there is one key vote up for grabs in determining the outcome of a looming vote of no-confidence, and that person doesn't want Sweden to join NATO and is opposed to making any concessions to Turkey.

Swedish Premier’s Row With Opposition May Complicate NATO Bid

Sweden’s prime minister raised the stakes in a row with the domestic opposition, potentially hampering the Nordic nation’s efforts to overcome a Turkish veto to joining the NATO alliance.

Magdalena Andersson threatened to resign if her justice minister loses a confidence vote in parliament, due on June 7, turning a lawmaker with Kurdish background into a kingmaker as the opposition lacks just one vote for the initiative to pass.

The move comes as opposition parties, which are trailing in polls, seek to refocus politics on domestic issues from the NATO debate ahead of general elections in September. If they manage to oust the minister and Andersson resigns, their chance of replacing her remains slim, meaning she could then be reappointed.

Yet the domestic quarrel comes just as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stalled Sweden and Finland’s bids to enter the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, demanding that the countries -- especially Sweden -- do more to clamp down on Kurdish groups that Turkey views as terrorists.

[Max Peck]

If people have to die in a senseless war, better the generals than the privates.

Russian general killed in eastern Ukraine, Russian state media reporter says

A Russian general was killed in eastern Ukraine, a Russian state media journalist said on Sunday, adding to the string of high-ranking military casualties sustained by Moscow.

The report, published on the Telegram messaging app by state television reporter Alexander Sladkov, did not say precisely when and where Major General Roman Kutuzov was killed.

There was no immediate comment from the Russian defence ministry.

Cue the music...

[Max Peck]

[coopasonic]

He certainly acts like someone who is thinking about his legacy short term, and isn't too worried about the effects on others long term.

Which could work against the world. Someone who sees the end in sight may not be as worried having the world stay livable.

He does have children, some he even acknowledges and apparently cares about.

[Isgrimnur]

I love it.

[Grifman]

Russia going analogue:

https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/can-r ... inas-help/

[Max Peck]

Ukraine to get anti-aircraft missiles and tanks from Spain, report says

Spain is to supply Ukraine with anti-aircraft missiles and Leopard battle tanks in a step up of its military support to the country, according to government sources cited by newspaper El Pais on Sunday.

Spain will also provide essential training to the Ukrainian military in how to use the tanks. It would take place in Latvia, where the Spanish Army has deployed 500 soldiers within the framework of NATO's Enhanced Advanced Presence operation.

A second phase of training could take place in Spain, according to the sources cited by El Pais.

The paper said Spain's defence ministry is finalising a delivery to Kyiv of low-level Shorad Aspide anti-aircraft missiles, which the Spanish Army has replaced with a more advanced system.

Spain has so far supplied ammunition, individual protection equipment and light weapons.

These would likely be either Leopard 2A4s or 2Es. Germany would need to sign off on an export authorization, so it might not be a done deal if they balk.

[gilraen]

Moscow ran a municipal referendum on renaming a town square in front of the US Embassy. The winning name? "The People's Republic of Donetsk Square", referring to the region in eastern Ukraine that claimed to have "seceded" in 2014, and that Russia claims is now theirs. Also, the Moscow city government said they would find a street or square to name after the "People's Republic of Luhansk".

[dbt1949]

We could rename the embassy building in Washington DC the Ukraine building.

[Max Peck]

There have been proposals to rename the street in front of the Russian Embassy in Ottawa to honor Zelenskyy, but I don't know if that will actually go anywhere. In the mean time, we have at least put up some snazzy signs.

[Daehawk]

What kind of tank is that at end and in the thumbnail? I dont recognize it as Russian made equipment.

[Blackhawk]

T80, maybe? I mean, they're going to great lengths to hide it, so it's hard to see identifying details.

[Max Peck]

T80, maybe? I mean, they're going to great lengths to hide it, so it's hard to see identifying details.

I believe you're correct. That grille assembly visible in the video looks a lot like the butt-end of a T-80U.

[Kasey Chang]

Perun's Vidcast does a deep dive on why Poland is the lynchpin in defense of Ukraine.

Poland has had CENTURIES of bad blood with Russia, and its "former Warsaw Pact" status, means it's logistically compatible with Ukraine, and it properly sees itself as next on the chopping block if Russia is not stopped. And indeed, while US has delivered more aid to Ukraine, Poland has contributed FAR MORE if you go by "aid per GDP". And because Poland can give former Warsaw Pact equipment, their aid is more... compatible with Ukrainian forces than Western weapon systems. Poland has also taken in the majority of Ukrainian refugees (well over 2 million). Poland is also a market for US arms as it offloads its older Warsaw Pact stuff to Ukraine...

Last week he covered corruption in Russian military and how it basically messed up the Russian army. While Russian army is strong enough, enough of it is corrupt that derailed the invasion of Ukraine. The question is how much Russian army is STILL corrupt? And how much of that will factor into the war of attrition in Ukraine?

[Max Peck]

Ukraine war: Britons Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner sentenced to death

Two Britons and a Moroccan who were captured while fighting for Ukraine have been sentenced to death by a Russian proxy court in eastern Ukraine.

Britons Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, and Saaudun Brahim are accused of being mercenaries, Russian state media says.

The court, which is not internationally recognised, is in the pro-Russian so-called Donetsk People's Republic.

The UK and Ukraine have condemned the sentences for violating international laws protecting prisoners of war.

The Britons' families have insisted they are long-serving members of the Ukrainian military and not mercenaries.

The men's lawyer said they all wished to appeal against the sentence, Russia's Tass news agency reports.

All three men were charged with being mercenaries, the violent seizure of power and undergoing training to carry out terrorist activities, RIA Novosti said.

[LordMortis]

Doesn't Russia openly have mercenaries who are secretly part of their military? And doesn't the US use "contractors" as well? It would seem Russia is opening a very big door this way. I understand why they would but it's not likely to close after this. I know no one like Biden's statement on Putin but its the one I appreciate, as opposed to one of the former presidents praising and envying the megalomaniac as his trained dog.

[Max Peck]

Technically these guys aren't even mercenaries or contractors. Ukraine has been enlisting foreign volunteers in their military (i.e. having them sign contracts to become actual members of the armed service) in order to avoid this kind of issue. The article describes the Britons as being "long-serving members" which I would take to mean their enlistment predates the current invasion.

Apparently the Russians don't care about the legal niceties and just want to make an example to discourage foreign volunteers from coming to Ukraine to fight Russia. It's possible that the show trial is just for show and they'll leverage the death sentences to increase the prisoners' value in a POW exchange.

[Default]

Doesn't Russia openly have mercenaries who are secretly part of their military? And doesn't the US use "contractors" as well? It would seem Russia is opening a very big door this way. I understand why they would but it's not likely to close after this. I know no one like Biden's statement on Putin but its the one I appreciate, as opposed to one of the former presidents praising and envying the megalomaniac as his trained dog.

The Wagner Group.

[Default]

Perun's Vidcast does a deep dive on why Poland is the lynchpin in defense of Ukraine.

Poland has had CENTURIES of bad blood with Russia, and its "former Warsaw Pact" status, means it's logistically compatible with Ukraine, and it properly sees itself as next on the chopping block if Russia is not stopped. And indeed, while US has delivered more aid to Ukraine, Poland has contributed FAR MORE if you go by "aid per GDP". And because Poland can give former Warsaw Pact equipment, their aid is more... compatible with Ukrainian forces than Western weapon systems. Poland has also taken in the majority of Ukrainian refugees (well over 2 million). Poland is also a market for US arms as it offloads its older Warsaw Pact stuff to Ukraine...

Last week he covered corruption in Russian military and how it basically messed up the Russian army. While Russian army is strong enough, enough of it is corrupt that derailed the invasion of Ukraine. The question is how much Russian army is STILL corrupt? And how much of that will factor into the war of attrition in Ukraine?

The Russian army has been corrupt for it's existence. And the lack of electronics from the west means that whatever advanced equipment they have now is all they have. Add in the longer the war goes on, the more trained troops the Ukraine army develops, the more NATO gear is integrated into the UA, plus the deserved hatred, I see this ending up a Russian bloodbath. The replacement birthrate has been suggested top dropto 1.2 (best case) and .8(!) By 2023-4, and between casualties and immigration, Russia has lost a huge chunk of it's future population.
That's really going to bite really hard in the medium future.

[Unagi]

I guess I just assumed China was willing to supply them with any critical electronics.

[Kasey Chang]

I guess I just assumed China was willing to supply them with any critical electronics.

China's mainly concerned about "face", and feeding Russia's appetite would cause it to lose face among the international community. They may feed Russian some under-table deals, but not in huge qty. IMHO, of course. China's too populous to have zero leaks, so it's mainly about "managing" the leaks, and if some Chinese chip foundry ramp up production, people WILL notice. You can't hide that at a commercial scale. Operational security and all that.

Commercial intelligence have pretty much mapped out which chip is going to be produced when for the stockholders and analyst firms. If a timetable shifts, everyone knows.

[Unagi]

I guess I just assumed China was willing to supply them with any critical electronics.

China's mainly concerned about "face", and feeding Russia's appetite would cause it to lose face among the international community. They may feed Russian some under-table deals, but not in huge qty. IMHO, of course. China's too populous to have zero leaks, so it's mainly about "managing" the leaks, and if some Chinese chip foundry ramp up production, people WILL notice. You can't hide that at a commercial scale. Operational security and all that.

Commercial intelligence have pretty much mapped out which chip is going to be produced when for the stockholders and analyst firms. If a timetable shifts, everyone knows.

China doesn’t care about face enough to not give Russia back door access to all the civilian drones of Chinese production. I’m sure giving them some chips is well within their boundaries.

Are they not buying Russian gas?

[Blackhawk]

Give?

Someone, somewhere is doing business with Russia. All China needs to do is quietly give them the chips to pass along, possibly under disguise as normal trade. It's how weapons trade with Russia has worked forever (although it's usually done the other way around.)

[Unagi]

Give?

Honestly. I don't know what to say. Should I clarify that I don't actually mean the word 'give' in the sense that they would just simply hand them over, free of charge? Is that how I answer that question? Or should I double-down and take the sarcastic humorous approach and say something like "Yes, Give... Everyone knows that China gives microchips away for free - it's just who they are."



Anyhow... I was just basically saying that China - while they are currently seemingly somewhat following our imposed sanctions on Russia, it feels like they will be working hard on ways to maintain that customer and vendor available to them.

[Blackhawk]

Give?

Honestly. I don't know what to say. Should I clarify that I don't actually mean the word 'give' in the sense that they would just simply hand them over, free of charge? Is that how I answer that question? Or should I double-down and take the sarcastic humorous approach and say something like "Yes, Give... Everyone knows that China gives microchips away for free - it's just who they are."

That wasn't what I was trying to say at all, and I had no intention of suggesting that it would be out of goodwill. It would be for profit, or for political reasons. I was saying that China can continue to business with Russia without doing business with Russia. They both have enough clout in that region to use an intermediary to 'launder' goods in order to bypass the issues involved with supporting them directly. Russia has done it in the middle east often enough.

[Unagi]

Ah, ok.
I agree. We agree. You say it better.

[LawBeefaroni]

And it's not just grain. Natural gas is a critical component in the manufacture of nitrogen fertilizer. Without fertilizer, crop yields can't feed enough people.

[Carpet_pissr]

You nailed it. And guess where most traditional fertilizer components are sourced from? Ukraine and Russia, with Russia being the largest exporter.

I just paid about $48 for a tiny bag of fertilizer at Home Depot which normally costs about $30.

In fact, because the (traditional) fertilizer disruption is such a big deal, and came on so suddenly due to the war, the company I just started working for is pivoting and trying to take immediate advantage by supplying natural ingredients to bio-fertilizer manufacturers. Business is booming as large famers and companies are desperate to find supply, and supply that is not jacked up 60% almost overnight.

[LawBeefaroni]

Oh look, explosion shuts down Freeport LNG plant in Texas.

NEW YORK — An explosion at a liquefied natural gas terminal in Texas has left nearby residents rattled and is taking a substantial amount of the fuel off the market at a time when global demand is soaring.

Freeport LNG will be offline for at least three weeks, the company said Thursday, following a fire in its export facility. The company said no one was injured, and the cause is under investigation.

...

Normally, Freeport LNG exports about 2 billion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas per day, about 15% of the nation's LNG exports.

The shutdown comes at a time when global demand for LNG is high because many nations are trying to wean themselves off Russian gas, which is sent into Europe primarily though pipelines. U.S. exports have been soaring.

[Isgrimnur]