Ukraine

[El Guapo]

"If it bleeds, it leads." Palestine is doing most of the bleeding today.

For whatever reason, nothing can compete for the world's attention like violence involving Israel.

[Holman]

It's also the case that Twitter-paced coverage expects significant results in hours rather than weeks or months.

[malchior]

Ukraine aid discussion was sent off course in part by Russian propaganda. A US marine who went to Russia in 2016 has been publishing anti-Ukraine propaganda as the "DC Weekly" with made up authors (using images of real people) and AI generated hit pieces on Ukrainian officials. Esteemed members of Congress like JD Vance fell for it. We're such a serious country.

A website founded by a former US Marine who now lives in Russia has fuelled a rumour that Volodymyr Zelensky purchased two luxury yachts with American aid money.

Despite the false claim, the disinformation plot was successful. It took off online and was echoed by members of the US Congress making crucial decisions about military spending.

It was an incredible assertion - using two advisers as proxies, Mr Zelensky paid $75m (£59m) for two yachts.

But not only has the Ukrainian government flatly denied the story, the two ships in question have not even been sold.

Despite being false, the story reached members of the US Congress, where leaders say any decision on further aid to Ukraine will be delayed until next year.

Some are vehemently opposed to further support.

On X, formerly Twitter, Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene said: "Anyone who votes to fund Ukraine is funding the most corrupt money scheme of any foreign war in our country's history."

She linked to a story containing the yacht rumour.

Tom Tillis, a Republican Senator and a supporter of military aid to Ukraine, spoke to CNN shortly after senators held a closed-door meeting with Mr Zelensky last week.

"I think the notion of corruption came up because some have said we can't do it, because people will buy yachts with the money," Mr Tillis said. "[Mr Zelensky] disabused people of those notions."

Mr Tillis has butted heads with another Republican Senator, J D Vance, who has also mentioned Mr Zelensky and ships in the same breath.

While discussing budget priorities on a podcast hosted by former Donald Trump adviser Steve Bannon, Mr Vance said: "There are people who would cut Social Security, throw our grandparents into poverty, why? So that one of Zelensky's ministers can buy a bigger yacht?"

Although the yacht rumour is false, the BBC has discovered the story was given a major boost by a Russia-linked website that pretends to be located in Washington.

It is, researchers say, a "likely purpose-built tool for narrative laundering with links to the Russian government".

[LordMortis]

Vance and MtG establish marching orders from lies? And their voters will happily ignore this or propagate those lies? Say it isn't so.

[dbt1949]

Other than the Ukraine holding on this long the one thing that surprises me the most is the use of drones in this war. I did not see that coming. It is certainly going to affect future conflicts in a major war. And it has for that matter.

[Holman]

Other than the Ukraine holding on this long the one thing that surprises me the most is the use of drones in this war. I did not see that coming. It is certainly going to affect future conflicts in a major war. And it has for that matter.

Yeah. I'm sure every military in the world is scrambling to figure out this question.

Vehicle rooftop "cope cages" (which are often just a chainlink barrier mounted atop a tank turret, working like the tank side-skirts of WW2) work only if the drone is a grenade-dropper. They're no good for kamikaze drones that can zoom in and strike the lower-rear armor where most armored vehicles are vulnerable. And of course infantry have little defense against a small quiet drone zipping in to detonate among them like a sack of grenades.

I imagine the solution will be some form of electronic jamming, but the challenge is to pull that off without inconveniencing your own side's electronic tools. Alternately, we might see automated close-support auto-guns that target and kill anything in the air near the vehicle that carries it. (There are claymore-like versions of this mounted on some armored vehicles today, intended to blow away incoming anti-tank guided missiles like TOWs. Their problem is that they can't handle cheap swarms of multiple drones, and they also pose a risk to accompanying infantry.)

[Isgrimnur]

Active Protection Systems

[Blackhawk]

All of the pieces exist - IFF, automated targeting systems, directional jamming.

Whether Russia has the money and know-how at this point is the bigger question. And if they did, I'm sure we'd love the chance to have Ukraine test our counters.

[Holman]

Active Protection Systems

Yeah, those are the "claymore-like systems" I mentioned. But they're designed to handle one or two incoming ATGMs, not a swarm of cheap kamikaze drones buzzing all around.

In fact some of these systems are designed to ignore threats traveling below a certain speed (so that they don't try to target and fire at nearby shrapnel, for instance).

[Blackhawk]

Active Protection Systems

Yeah, those are the "claymore-like systems" I mentioned. But they're designed to handle one or two incoming ATGMs, not a swarm of cheap kamikaze drones buzzing all around.

I figured you were referring to reactive armor (where you essentially cover a tank in bombs designed to disrupt incoming explosives.)

[Isgrimnur]

[Alefroth]

Ukraine is getting some help-

[mori]

Ukraine is getting some help-

Just not to be missed this would be part of the US aid package to Ukraine.

On another note, how far away are we from seeing automomous robots clearing minefields and then...

[Isgrimnur]

Ukraine and Britain sign security agreement in Kyiv

Ukraine, Britain announce security agreement during Kyiv visit by PM Sunak

Britain, one of Ukraine’s closest allies during the Russian invasion, will increase its support in the next financial year to 2.5 billion pounds ($3.2bn), an increase of 200 million pounds ($255m) on the previous two years, Sunak said on Friday.

The funding would cover long-range missiles, air defence, artillery ammunition and maritime security.

[Daehawk]

[Daehawk]

Russia - "Free steel! Get your free steel here!"
Ukraine - "Awesome, we could use that"

[LordMortis]

We don't have a Russia thread, so does this go here?

https://news.yahoo.com/kremlin-hardline ... 00098.html

Pro-Kremlin voices on social media have expressed strange optimism that Russia might somehow challenge U.S. sovereignty over Alaska.

This followed an order by Russian President Vladimir Putin directing authorities to search for foreign lands that once belonged to the former USSR the Russian Empire and register ownership over them.

Read also: Russia’s political clown Medvedev calls French ‘frog eaters’ and ‘f*gs’ in unhinged post

Although Putin's decree did not explicitly name Alaska, Washington has firmly told Moscow that attempts to claim U.S. territory will not be tolerated.

"I think I speak for all of us in the U.S. government to say that certainly [Putin] is not getting it back," said State Department Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel, commenting on Russian claims about the allegedly "unawful" sale of Alaska in 1867.

[El Guapo]

Turkey has approved Sweden's accession to NATO. That leaves Hungary as the only holdout. Of course Hungary is more pro-Putin than Turkey I think, so not sure how difficult it will be to shake Orban out.

[Alefroth]

Turkey has approved Sweden's accession to NATO. That leaves Hungary as the only holdout. Of course Hungary is more pro-Putin than Turkey I think, so not sure how difficult it will be to shake Orban out.

Orban is urging parliament to approve Sweden's application. I think all along Orban was just waiting for Turkey.

[El Guapo]

"Urging parliament". . I bet parliament is going to have a long debate over whether to do what Orban wants.

But great news.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

[hepcat]

I just wanna add....bork bork bork.

[Daehawk]

Putin is out of his mind. When do they stop listening to him and replace him.

[Alefroth]

"Urging parliament". . I bet parliament is going to have a long debate over whether to do what Orban wants.

[Kraken]

Putin is out of his mind. When do they stop listening to him and replace him.

The tide has turned in Putin's favor over the past month. Ukraine is running out of ammunition and personnel. Russia can afford a few hundred thousand casualties and is being amply supplied with missiles, drones, and artillery shells by Iran and North Korea. We're going to lose this war thanks to Viktor Orban and Mike Johnson (who takes his orders from Putin's lapdog, trump).

[Victoria Raverna]

And also thanks to Hamas and Israel?

[Kraken]

And also thanks to Hamas and Israel?

Peripherally, maybe. IDK much about EU politics.

In the US, it has nothing to do with foreign policy. MAGA Republicans have successfully tied aid to Ukraine to border security reform (even though the majority of Republicans are still pro-Ukraine). Biden has been negotiating some unpalatable reforms with both houses of Congress. The House refuses to reach any deal whatsoever because that would be seen as a win for Biden, and because they want the border to remain porous through the election season -- it's their #1 issue so any progress harms them. The Senate is close to reaching a deal, but trump is trying to poison it from the sidelines because only he can fix the border. Furthermore, trump and Putin are besties and trump would sell out Ukraine in a heartbeat. So, US support is being held hostage to domestic politics wherein the side complaining the loudest about border security refuses to cooperate in improving it.

IDK if that logjam can be broken, but it won't happen soon, and Ukraine needs aid NOW.

[Blackhawk]

I think Gaza's biggest impact on Ukraine was mostly in distracting the American public. Within hours we'd stopped talking about Ukraine, the news stopped talking about Ukraine, and the public stopped putting pressure on the government. (No, none of that actually stopped, but it was absolutely back-burnered.)

It couldn't have worked out better of Putin if he'd orchestrated it himself.

[LordMortis]

We're going to lose this war thanks to Viktor Orban and Mike Johnson (who takes his orders from Putin's lapdog, trump).

Ukraine is going to lose and we'll be worse for it but they'll be fucked worse than they are already but yeah, TFG and Johnson and all the looking the other way by their fuckery in this nation are right there.

IDK if that logjam can be broken, but it won't happen soon, and Ukraine needs aid NOW.

I am under the impression Ukraine's aid is still flowing NOW, but come (what?) May, there is no more aid in sight and its not so easy to turn on the spigot even as they aid is approved. Production and logistics still have to happen.

I think Gaza's biggest impact on Ukraine was mostly in distracting the American public.

Agreed, which takes heat of Johnson and actually gives him cover to be tool he is.

[El Guapo]

And also thanks to Hamas and Israel?

Peripherally, maybe. IDK much about EU politics.

In the US, it has nothing to do with foreign policy. MAGA Republicans have successfully tied aid to Ukraine to border security reform (even though the majority of Republicans are still pro-Ukraine). Biden has been negotiating some unpalatable reforms with both houses of Congress. The House refuses to reach any deal whatsoever because that would be seen as a win for Biden, and because they want the border to remain porous through the election season -- it's their #1 issue so any progress harms them. The Senate is close to reaching a deal, but trump is trying to poison it from the sidelines because only he can fix the border. Furthermore, trump and Putin are besties and trump would sell out Ukraine in a heartbeat. So, US support is being held hostage to domestic politics wherein the side complaining the loudest about border security refuses to cooperate in improving it.

IDK if that logjam can be broken, but it won't happen soon, and Ukraine needs aid NOW.

The core problem (as it is in so many areas) is Trump. Trump likes Russia and hates Ukraine, in part because Russia helps him and Ukraine refuses to help him, and also because of Trump's affection for authoritarians and authoritarianism. Hence Trump doesn't want the GOP to help Ukraine, so the GOP won't help Ukraine. If it wasn't for Trump, conservatives would've cashed in their Ukraine chip for a king's ransom of policy changes on immigration and elsewhere.

[Alefroth]

"Urging parliament". . I bet parliament is going to have a long debate over whether to do what Orban wants.

But great news.

Sent from my Pixel 7 Pro using Tapatalk

Well, they do seem to be defying him, so I wonder if he actually urged them at all-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... ining-nato

While the Hungarian government formally supports Sweden’s accession, the country’s parliament has avoided voting on the matter, fuelling frustration among Nato allies and raising questions about the motivations of Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán.

[Alefroth]

Ukraine getting a lifeline-

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war- ... 25de2046e4

Leaders of the 27 European Union countries sealed a deal Thursday to provide Ukraine with 50 billion euros ($54 billion) in support for its war-ravaged economy after Hungary dropped weeks of threats to veto the measure.

European Council President Charles Michel said the agreement “locks in steadfast, long-term, predictable funding for Ukraine” and shows the EU’s determination “to support their future, to support freedom.”

[Isgrimnur]

Ukraine 'hits Russian missile boat Ivanovets in Black Sea'

Ukrainian forces say they have destroyed a Russian missile boat from the Black Sea Fleet in a special operation off Russian-occupied Crimea.

The Ivanovets - a small warship - received "direct hits to the hull" overnight, after which it sank, military intelligence said.

It has released video footage that purports to show the moment of impact, followed by a big explosion.

There has been no word about the incident from Russian authorities.

[Brian]

For a country without a Navy, they sure seem to be winning a lot of naval battles.

[Alefroth]

Ukraine has really been diminishing the air defense over Crimea, and in return launching quite a few successful missile strikes on Crimea and beyond.

[mori]

The most disturbing video I have seen is a Ukrainian FPV drone taking out a Russian soldier taking cover beside a knocked out tank while another drone hovers above and videos the encounter. It terrified me as well as interviews with soldiers on both sides on the front. They say if you hear the drone it is coming for you and you have a split second to react before it is all over. It is that lethal of a weapon.

[Kraken]

Avdiivka falls.

It is also the clearest sign yet of how the tide of the war has turned in Moscow's favour after a Ukrainian counteroffensive failed to break through Russian lines last year.

"The head of state congratulated Russian soldiers on this success, an important victory," the Kremlin said in a statement on its website.

U.S. President Joe Biden warned this week that Avdiivka could fall to Russian forces because of ammunition shortages following months of Republican congressional opposition to a new U.S. military aid package for Kyiv.

A White House statement on Saturday said Biden called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Saturday to underscore the U.S. commitment to continue supporting Ukraine and reiterated the need for Congress to urgently pass the package to resupply Ukrainian forces.

The White House said the withdrawal had been forced upon Ukraine "by dwindling supplies as a result of congressional inaction," that had forced Ukrainian soldiers to ration ammunition and resulted in "Russia’s first notable gains in months."

Ukraine is rationing artillery shells while Russia has effectively unlimited ordinance. We'll see more Russian advances unless Johnson defies the MAGAts and gets the spice flowing again. Remember when the GOP used to accuse the Dems of being soft on Russia?

[Victoria Raverna]

Why Biden can bypass Congress to send weapons to Israel but not to Ukraine?

[waitingtoconnect]

Why Biden can bypass Congress to send weapons to Israel but not to Ukraine?

Because some level of Israel funding is already in place.

Anyhow the reality is no matter how much we send to Ukraine they will lose eventually; they simply don't have the manpower to take back whats been lost. And the Russians dont' care how many men they lose. Their only hope is to make the situation for the Russians so costly that political will runs out.

But this is more like the Winter War in 1939 than the Iraq or Afghan wars; political will is unlikely to run out here.

Why I say win, I mean driving Russia out. Anything else is a loss. Ukraine will either have to give up the territory Russia now holds and a bit more like Finland had to; or be eventually taken over as a vassal or being outright annexed (or both).

Russian wars always go the same way; they take massive losses and almost lose, then they go Zapp Branigan and send wave after wave of men at the problem until the enemy runs out of bullets. They did it against France, Germany, etc.

And Ukraine has managed to wriggle out from Russian dominance many times over the centuries but always get pulled back in becasue for the Russians, it's as Russian as the Kremlin.

That the Ukrainians have inflicted damage on the Russians is beside the point; they are only delaying Putin from driving across the European plain to the English Channel by a few years especially as Putin has gone full war economy now; it's incomprehensible to me that the Europeans are wasting time not rearming like mad while Putin has switched to a full war economy. It seems only Poland and the Baltics are taking this seriously. The French and Germans are still headless chickens while the UK is actually disarming or it's equipment doesn't work (it's new carriers don't even function).

[Grifman]

Why Biden can bypass Congress to send weapons to Israel but not to Ukraine?

It should be noted that additional funding is being requested for Israel, but Biden can't do anything until the funding is approved. No different from Ukraine.

[Zarathud]

Israel benefits from having treaty obligations and established funding. Ukraine doesn’t qualify, and needs its temporary funding authorization.